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B: S&P 500 Earnings ForecastsFigure 22.7.06.56.07.010-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS(percent, daily)5.56.56.05.510-Year Yields5.05.0Germany (0.13)Japan (0.17)US 017201820192020202120222023Source: Haver Analytics.Figure 23.8.07.57.08.0RATIO OF NEARBY FUTURES PRICES COPPER TO GOLDvs 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD(daily)7.57.06.56.56.06.010-Year US TreasuryBond Yield (percent) (1.86)Copper/Gold Price (2.30)(nearby futures)(x 02.03/81.51.51.01.0.5.5yardeni.com.0.02004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Source: Federal Reserve Board and Haver Analytics.Page 15 / March 9, 2022 / Strategist’s HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com

B: S&P 500 Earnings ForecastsFigure 24.8008001997PacificRimUS YIELD CURVE* & FINANCIAL CRISES(basis points, onal19801984Silver ContinentalBubble 3002002003/410010000-100-100-2001998Russia& LTCM1987BlackMonday-300-4002008Lehman& AIG-2002020Covid-19-300-400-500-5001982Drysdale& Mexico-600-700-800-600-700yardeni.com-80062 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26* 10-year US Treasury yield less federal funds rate.Note: Blue shaded areas are periods of monetary easing between cyclical peaks and troughs in the federal funds rate. Red shaded areas aremonetary tightening periodsSource: Federal Reserve Board.Figure 25.24002400YIELD SPREAD US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND(basis points, 222324Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board.Page 16 / March 9, 2022 / Strategist’s HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com

B: S&P 500 Earnings ForecastsFigure 26.1000900800140S&P GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)130JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate3/83/8700120600110500Goldman SachsCommodity Index(nearby futures price)40010030090200yardeni.com1008094 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24Source: Standard & Poor’s, JP Morgan, and Haver Analytics.Figure 27.700500INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER FUTURES PRICE3/8650600400550500300450400350CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967 100)200Copper Futures Price**(cents per pound)yardeni.com3001002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures contract.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.Page 17 / March 9, 2022 / Strategist’s HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com

B: S&P 500 Earnings ForecastsFigure 28.800750800US COVID-19(number, 10-day moving average, loweenJuly 4650Thanksgiving600ThanksgivingJuly reak350300350New PositiveResults (36)HospitalPatients* IIIVIIIIIIIV50yardeni.comI0II202020212022* Note: Data for hospital patients from July 2020 to the present is from Oxford University, prior to that data is from COVID Tracking Project.Source: Department of Health & Human Services, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, COVID Tracking Project and Oxford University.Figure 29.2121REAL GDP(trillion 2012 dollars, saar, ratio scale)Q420201919Real GDP Projected Growth Rates(q/q%, saar)Q1Q2Q3Q42020 32014201520162017201820192020202120222023152024* Red line is YRI forecast for Q3-2021 through Q4-2022.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.Page 18 / March 9, 2022 / Strategist’s HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com

B: S&P 500 Earnings ForecastsFigure 30.5555IT EQUPMENT, SOFTWARE, AND R&D SPENDING IN NOMINAL GDP(as a percent of total capital spending in nominal GDP)Q450504545TechnologyAs Percent of TotalCapital Spending (52.0)3540yardeni.com4035303025252020151559 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.Figure 31.6.05.56.0NONFARM BUSINESS (NFB) PRODUCTIVITY& REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION(20-quarter percent change, annual rate)5.55.05.04.54.5Productivity (1.9)Real Hourly Compensation(using NFB Deflator) 0.5.0.5yardeni.com.052 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.Page 19 / March 9, 2022 / Strategist’s HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com

B: S&P 500 Earnings ForecastsFigure 42/23ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS*(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)8.48.46.46.44.44.42.42.4All Commercial BanksTotal Deposits (18.2)Loans & Leases (10.8)Total Securities (5.8)US Treasury & Agency 101112131415161718192021222324* Includes domestically chartered commercial banks and foreign-related ones.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Federal Reserve Board.Figure 33.33MODERN MONETARY THEORY(trillion dollars)22QE1 QE3 RM1Feb1QT0QE1QE2QE3QE40-1-1-2-2Jan-3-3Fed’s Holdings of US Treasuries(yearly change) (0.9)Federal Budget Deficit(12-month sum) 42015201620172018201920202021-52022Note: QE1 (11/25/08-3/31/10) 1.24tn in mortgage securities; expanded (3/16/09-3/31/10) 300bn in Treasuries. QE2 (11/3/10-6/30/11) 600bnin Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12-10/29/14) 40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended); expanded (12/12/12-10/1/14) 45bn/month in Treasuries.QT (10/1/17-7/31/19) balance sheet pared by 675bn. RM (11/1/19-3/15/20) reserve management, 60bn/month in Treasury bills. QE4 (3/16/20-infinity).Source: Federal Reserve Board and US Treasury Department.Page 20 / March 9, 2022 / Strategist’s HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com

B: S&P 500 Earnings ForecastsFigure 34.14018EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR* & REAL GDP161413012101208FebQ41106421000-2-490-6-880Real GDP(yearly percent change) (4.6)-10-1270Economic Sentiment Indicator*(long-term average 100, sa) (114.0)-14-16yardeni.com60-182000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024* The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight 40%), service (30%), consumer (20%), construction (5%), andretail trade (5%) confidence indicators.Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities, European Commission, and Haver Analytics.Figure 35.120120GERMANY: IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX*(2015 100, sa)110110100100FebGerman Ifo Index9090Total (98.9)Current Situation (98.6)Expectations 02024* Ifo introduced new series, which include services for the first time, drastically reducing the weight of the manufacturing sector within the measures.Source: Ifo-Institut Fur Wirtschaftsforschung.Page 21 / March 9, 2022 / Strategist’s HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com

B: S&P 500 Earnings ForecastsFigure 36.2525CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & REAL RETAIL SALES(24-month percent change in 24-month average, annual rate)202015151010Industrial Production* (5.2)Real Retail Sales** 5161718192021Dec22502324* Value added basis.** Using nominal retail sales divided by CPI.Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.Figure 37.4040BANK LOANS & MONEY SUPPLY(trillion US dollars)Jan3535Jan3025China: Bank Loans (nsa) (30.9)US: Bank Loans (sa) (10.8)China: M2 (38.2)302520201515Jan105105yardeni.com002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Source: Federal Reserve Board and People’s Bank of China.Page 22 / March 9, 2022 / Strategist’s HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com

“A Private War” ( ) is a 2018 biopic about Marie Colvin, who was an extraordinary American warcorrespondent for The Sunday Times of London. She wore an eyepatch after losing her left eye in 2001when she was covering the civil war in Sri Lanka. Despite suffering from PTSD, she covered theconflicts in Iraq and Libya, interviewing Qadhafi before he was killed. In February 2012, she wasinterviewed on CNN from Homs, Syria, where she reported that Assad’s army was committing warcrimes against civilians on a massive scale. Rosamund Pike’s performance as Marie is top notch.“Mudbound” ( ) is a 2017 drama on Netflix about life in rural Mississippi during and right afterWorld War II. It’s about the corrosive impact of poverty and racism on people’s lives. It’s an unrelentingtale of misery without much relief other than from family support, which is tested often and hard.Particularly poignant are the parallel struggles of two World War II veterans–one white, one black–whoreturn home and are forced to deal with racism and PTSD.“Nine Perfect Strangers” ( ) is an eight-episode mini-series on Hulu about nine very different peoplewho are hoping to find peace from their demons at Tranquillum House, a secluded retreat run by amysterious wellness guru, Masha, played by Nicole Kidman. Masha’s treatments include the usual Zenrituals such as meditation. But she also spikes her guests’ breakfast smoothies. The acting is good,especially by Melissa McCarthy, Michael Shannon, and Bobby Cannavale. The series is entertainingbut not must-see.“Respect” ( ) is a biopic about the life and times of Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul. It reallydoesn’t do justice to either. Instead, the movie focuses on Aretha’s soulful songs, which clearlyreflected the challenges she faced in her life. She was haunted by “demons” and bad relationships withvarious men, including her father. She contributed greatly to Martin Luther King’s civil rights movementby appearing at fundraisers for his organization. Jennifer Hudson does a great job playing Aretha andbelting out her songs.“Stillwater” (-) is a movie that turns the old proverb on its head. In this case, still waters don’t rundeep. It stars Matt Damon as the oil-rigger father of an American girl who was convicted of murderingher college roommate in Marseille, France. It’s loosely based on what really happened to Amanda Knoxin Italy. Damon’s acting is stiff and one-dimensional as he does his best to find evidence of hisdaughter’s innocence. She is played by an actress who must have studied melodrama.“The Many Saints of Newark” (- -) is a fictional history of Tony Soprano, recounting the events of hischildhood that would shape him into the troubled mafioso. The movie is a prequel to the long-runningHBO series “The Sopranos.” It’s fun to get a little background on Tony’s wonder years. However, themovie is slow paced and mostly boring–a big disappointment. More time should have been spent onthe events and people in Tony’s life that would explain why he needed to see a psychologist during hisadult life.“The Titans That Built America” ( ) is a History Channel docudrama series about the remarkableentrepreneurs who transformed American industry after World War I. The new generation of Titansincluded Pierre Du Pont, Walter Chrysler, J.P. Morgan Jr., Henry Ford, and William Boeing. Theyliterally drove the prosperity of the Roaring 1920s by inventing the auto industry. However, FDRattacked them as “economic royalists” to get elected as president and blamed them for the GreatDepression. He then had to do an about-face when he needed their skills to build an “arsenal ofdemocracy” to defeat Hitler. They did so, producing tens of thousands of bombers and other weapons.One of the remarkable heroes of this story is Edsel Ford.

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