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Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.May 10, 2022Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683eyardeni@yardeni.comJoe Abbott732-497-5306jabbott@yardeni.comPlease visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.comthinking outside the box
Table Of ContentsTable Of ContentsHistorical Monthly ReturnsBull MarketsBear MarketsBull/Bear Ratios of 1.0 or Less & Bull MarketsPresidential CyclesReturnsISM Super Composite IndexConfidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500S&P 500 SectorsSelected Consumer Discretionary IndustriesSelected Consumer Staples IndustriesSelected Energy IndustriesSelected Financials IndustriesSelected Health Care IndustriesSelected Industrials & Computers IndustriesSelected Materials IndustriesSelected Transportation IndustriesSelected Utilities IndustriesJanuaries & Annual S&P 500 ReturnsDow Jones IndexS&P 500 Forward P/E & Expected InflationS&P 500 & CrisisS&P 500 PerformanceMay 10, 2022 / Stock Market 3031-323334-3637-4041424344-45464748Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Historical Monthly ReturnsFigure 1.S&P 500 INDEX: PERCENTAGE OF 1-MONTH HOLDING PERIODSUP OR DOWN FOR ALL YEARS 1921 - 2013*(percent)Up MonthsDown 864FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec8S&P 500 INDEX: AVERAGE CHANGE OF 1-MONTH HOLDING PERIODSUP OR DOWN FOR ALL YEARS 1921 - 2013Up Months(percent)Down tNovDec2.5S&P 500 INDEX: AVERAGE 1-MONTH NONANNUALIZEDCHANGE FOR ALL YEARS 1928-20122.0(percent)1.3Average .5-0.2-.5Average deni.comOctNov-1.5Dec* Excludes January of 1928, and data is through August 2012. No change (0.00%) month of September, 1979 counted as up month.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.Page 1 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull MarketsFigure 2.363136TPT 46%19 months26P 58%28 monthsTP31 173%41 months 47%5 months2126211616S&P 500 BULL MARKETS(ratio 19261927TP 169%20 months24192819296193044393429T 132%23 25231935P21 69%15 months19193619371938T1939P 75%30 months419402523T 43%12 42194319441945194619471948194971950Note: P/T peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 2 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull MarketsFigure 3.75696357PTP 119%34 monthsT75696357P 56%19 months51514545S&P 500 BULL MARKETS(ratio 3195419551956195719581959151960150150PT125P 39%14 months 80%44 months 33%11 monthsT125 24%8 9651966196719681969140140T130120501970P 33%14 months 54%9 monthsT 31%12 months 23%6 months 28%15 monthsPT 51%11 970197119721973197419751976197719781979601980Note: P/T peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 3 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull MarketsFigure 4.450410370330PTPT 65%31 months 43%8 monthsP 229%60 months450410370330290290250250S&P 500 BULL MARKETS(ratio 89901990160014801360124011201000T 166%43 19905100460041003600P1991T1992 102%84 months1993P19941995T19961997 401%131 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Note: P/T peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 4 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bear MarketsFigure 5.554555TPTP-14.8%3525TP-9.4%45-44.3%3525S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS(ratio 2194319441945194619471948194971950Note: P/T peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 5 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bear MarketsFigure 6.76716661565146PTP-14.8%T76716661565146P-20.7%S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS(ratio 6197719781979601980Note: P/T peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 6 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bear MarketsFigure 90390330330S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS(ratio 0180018001400140010001000yardeni.com6006002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Note: P/T peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 7 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull/Bear Ratios of 1.0 or Less & Bull MarketsFigure 8.52004700420037003200S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*(daily, ratio 1700yardeni.com1200700120070020020087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.Figure 9.41600366003160026600DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*(ratio 1160011600yardeni.com660016006600160087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.Page 8 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Presidential CyclesFigure 10.5410481042103610301024101810AprS&P 500 INDEX &FIRST YEAR OF A PRESIDENT’S TERM: 1951-present(Average 6.0%, ratio rdeni.com-6.6% -14.3 23.1109.1-11.4 -17.4 -11.5 -9.726.3 27.37.131.0 -13.03.023.5 29.61050 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Note: Shaded vertical lines are the first year of a President’s term. Data above timeline shows Dec/Dec percentage change using end of month data.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 11.49034203350328032103AprS&P 500 INDEX* &SECOND YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now(average 4.8%, ratio m-28.5 -5.9 25.2 12.4 -11.9 21.8 45.0 38.1 -11.8 -13.1 -0.1 -29.7 1.1 14.8 14.6 -6.6 -1.5 26.7 -23.4 13.6 12.8 11.433253035404550556065707580859095000510152025* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016.Note: Shaded areas are the second years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the second year using daily price dataSource: Standard & Poor’s.Page 9 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Presidential CyclesFigure 12.49034203350328032103AprS&P 500 INDEX* &THIRD YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now(average 12.8%, ratio m-47.1 41.4 -5.5 19.4 0.0 16.5 26.4 8.5 18.9 20.1 10.8 31.6 12.3 17.3 2.0 26.3 34.1 19.5 26.4 3.50.0 -0.733253035404550556065707580859095000510152025* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016.Note: Shaded areas are the third years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the third year using daily price data.Source: Standard & Poor’s.Figure 13.49034203350328032103AprS&P 500 INDEX* &FOURTH YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now(average 5.7%, ratio m-15.1 27.9 -15.3 13.8 -0.7 11.8 2.6 -3.0 13.0 7.7 15.8 19.1 25.8 1.4 12.4 4.5 20.3 -10.1 9.0 -38.5 13.4 9.533253035404550556065707580859095000510152025* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016.Note: Shaded areas are the fourth years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the fourth year using daily data.Source: Standard & Poor’s.Page 10 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
ReturnsFigure 14.2S&P 500 INDEX: average change each month 1946-2012 (67 ayJunJulAugSepOctNov-1DecNote: Updated through August 2012.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 15.5.0yardeni.comS&P 500 INDEX: average of gain years each month 1946-2012 (67 epOctNovDecNote: Updated through August 2012.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 11 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
ReturnsFigure 16.1.55.0S&P 500 INDEX: average of loss years each month 1946-2012 (67 ote: Updated through July 2012.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 17.55yardeni.comS&P 500 INDEX: # of months up each month 1946-2012 (67 : Updated through August 2012.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 12 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
ISM Super Composite IndexFigure 18.140140ISM SUPER COMPOSITE INDEX vs. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX1301301201201101101001009090808070706060ISM Super Composite Index*5050Consumer Optimism 04200520062007200820092010201120122013302014* Sum of ISM manufacturing composite and ISM nonmanfacturing composite.** Average of Conference Board and University of Michigan measures.Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Conference Board and University of Michigan Survey Research Center.Figure 19.140CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. S&P 500130AprConsumer Optimism Index*120S&P 500 01900170015001300110090070024* Average of Conference Board and University of Michigan measures.Source: The Conference Board and University of Michigan Survey Research Center and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 13 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
ISM Super Composite IndexFigure 20.1402300ISM SUPER COMPOSITE INDEX vs. S&P 500 INDEX1302100120190011017001001500901300801100ISM SuperComposite Index*70900S&P 500 20062007200820092010201120122013201420157002016* Sum of ISM manufacturing composite and ISM nonmanfacturing composite.Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 21.140120NATIONAL CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. S&P 500 INDEXNational Confidence Index:Average of COI* andISM Super Composite**S&P 500 500130011009007001998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024* Average of Conference Board and University of Michigan measures.** Sum of ISM manufacturing composite and ISM nonmanfacturing composite.Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), The Conference Board, University of Michigan Survey Research Center and Standard & Poor’sCorporation.Page 14 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500Figure 22.70400YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX4/16380360Boom-Bust Barometer*6034032010/13Consumer Comfort 10030806040202002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.Figure 23.5250180YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX47501604250YRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*3750S&P 500 0yardeni.com2092 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 15 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
S&P 500 SectorsFigure 24.40.40S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 82022.1024Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Auto, Auto Parts, Building Materials, Footwear, Homebuilding, Household Furnishing, Leisure Time, Newspapers, Publishing,and Textile Apparel industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 25.35.35S&P 500 CONSUMER STAPLES(as a ratio of S&P 82022.0524Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Alcoholic Beverage, Drug Store, Entertainment, Food, Food Retail, Household Product, Personal Care, Restaurant, Soft Drink, Tobacco,and TV industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 16 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
S&P 500 SectorsFigure 26.55.55S&P 500 ENERGY(as a ratio of S&P 89092949698000204060810121416182022.0024Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 27.4.4S&P 500 FINANCIALS(as a ratio of S&P 92949698000204060810121416182022.124Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 17 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
S&P 500 SectorsFigure 28.50.50S&P 500 HEALTH CARE(as a ratio of S&P 416182022.1024Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Hospital Management, Medical Products, and Pharmaceutical industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 29.30.30.25.25.20S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)5/6yardeni.com.15.20.1548 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 18 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
S&P 500 SectorsFigure 30.7.7S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(as a ratio of S&P 889092949698000204060810121416182022.124Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Communication Equipment, Hardware, Instrumentation, Semiconductor, and Software industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 31.35.35S&P 500 MATERIALS(as a ratio of S&P 24Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified Chemicals, Gold, Iron & Steel, Metals Mining, Paper & Forest Products, and PaperContainers & Packaging industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 19 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
S&P 500 SectorsFigure 32.35.35S&P 500 COMMUNICATION SERVICES(as a ratio of S&P 202224Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Monthly data an average of Long Distance and Telephone industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 33.9.9S&P 500 UTILITIES(as a ratio of S&P .1.048 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s.Page 20 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Consumer Discretionary IndustriesFigure 34.60.60.55.55S&P 500 APPAREL ACCESSORIES & LUXURY GOODS(as a ratio of S&P 15.10.105/6.05yardeni.com.00.05.0048 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 35.8.8.7.7S&P 500 AUTOMOBILES(as a ratio of S&P 500).6.6.5.5.4.4.3.3.2.2.1.1.05/6yardeni.com.048 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 21 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Consumer Discretionary IndustriesFigure 36.45.40.45S&P 500 BROADCASTING(as a ratio of S&P 05yardeni.com.00.0048 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 37.30.25.30S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES(as a ratio of S&P 0048 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 22 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Consumer Discretionary IndustriesFigure 38.1.31.31.21.21.11.1S&P 500 FOOTWEAR(as a ratio of S&P ardeni.com.0.048 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 39.1.21.21.01.0.8.8S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING(as a ratio of S&P 500).6.6.4.45/6.2.2yardeni.com.0.066 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 23 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Consumer Discretionary IndustriesFigure 40.6.6S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS(as a ratio of S&P 500).5.5.4.4.3.3.2.2.1.15/6yardeni.com.0.048 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 41.25.25S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT(as a ratio of S&P 500).20.20.15.15.10.105/6.05.05yardeni.com.00.0060 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 24 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Consumer Discretionary IndustriesFigure 42.36.36S&P 500 PUBLISHING(as a ratio of S&P ardeni.com.04.0448 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 25 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Consumer Staples IndustriesFigure 43.7.7.6.6.5.5S&P 500 BREWERS(as a ratio of S&P 500).4.4.3.3.2.25/6.1.1yardeni.com.0.060 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, weekly thereafter.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 44.5.4.5S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS(as a ratio of S&P 500).4.3.35/6.2.2.1.1yardeni.com.0.048 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 26 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Consumer Staples IndustriesFigure 45.3.2.3.2S&P 500 PACKAGED FOODS(as a ratio of S&P 500)12/25.1.1yardeni.com.0.060 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 46.4.3.4S&P 500 PERSONAL PRODUCTS(as a ratio of S&P 500).35/6.2.2.1.1yardeni.com.0.060 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 27 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Consumer Staples IndustriesFigure 47.30.30.25.25.20.20S&P 500 SOFT DRINKS(as a ratio of S&P 500)5/6.15.15.10.10.05.05yardeni.com.00.0060 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 48.7.7.6.6S&P 500 TOBACCO(as a ratio of S&P 500).5.5.4.4.3.35/6.2.2.1.1yardeni.com.0.048 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 28 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Energy IndustriesFigure 49.6.6.5.5.4.4S&P 500 INTEGRATED OIL & GAS(as a ratio of S&P 500).3.3.2.25/6.1.1yardeni.com.0.060 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 50.2.01.51.51.0yardeni.com2.0S&P 500 OIL & GAS DRILLING(as a ratio of S&P 500)1.0.5.5.05/22.060 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 29 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Energy IndustriesFigure 51.1.51.5S&P 500 OIL & GASEQUIPMENT & SERVICES(as a ratio of S&P 500)1.01.0yardeni.com.5.55/6.0.060 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 30 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Financials IndustriesFigure 52.40.40S&P 500 BANK COMPOSITE(as a ratio of S&P 2.0524Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 53.440440390340390S&P 500 BANK COMPOSITE om404080 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Ratio scale. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 31 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Financials IndustriesFigure 54.44.44.42.42S&P 500 LIFE & HEALTH INSURANCE(as a ratio of S&P yardeni.com.06.12.10.08.0648 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure .18.16.16.14.12.14S&P 500 PROPERTY & CASUALTYINSURANCE(as a ratio of S&P 500).12.10.10.08.08yardeni.com.06.0660 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 32 / May 10, 2022 / Stock Market HandbookYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Selected Health Care IndustriesFigure 56.7.7.6.6S&P 500 HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT(as a ratio of S&P 500)5/6.5.5.4.4.3.3.2.2.1.1yardeni.com.0.060 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 57.5.5.4.4.3S&P 500 PHARMACEUTICALS(as a ratio of S&P 500).35/6.2.2.1.1yardeni.com.0.060 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26Note:
January 27, 2022 / Stock Market Handbook www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc. Historical Monthly Returns 1 Bull Markets 2-4 Bear Markets 5-7 Bull/Bear Ratios of 1.0 or Less & Bull Markets 8 Presidential Cycles 9-10 Returns 11-12 ISM Super Composite Index 13-14 Confidence, Boom
