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Stock Market Indicators:Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.June 17, 2021Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683eyardeni@yardeni.comJoe Abbott732-497-5306jabbott@yardeni.comDebbie Johnson480-664-1333djohnson@yardeni.comPlease visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.comthinking outside the box
Table Of ContentsTable Of ContentsBulls & BearsBull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0AAII SentimentBull & BearsJune 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios123456-10Yardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bulls & BearsFigure 1.66INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS54RatioBull/BearRatio*Jun 1Jun 8Jun 155Ratio3.253.363.3246/153322110087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 238075706580PercentageBullsBearsJun 1Jun 8Jun 155550504545404035353030252520201515101087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23504550PercentageCorrection40Jun 1Jun 8Jun 151010yardeni.com5587 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Source: Investors Intelligence.Page 1 / June 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0Figure 2.460042003800340030002600S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*(ratio 14001400yardeni.com1000600100060020020087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.Figure 3.3660031600266002160036600316006/16DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*(ratio 016006600160087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.Page 2 / June 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0Figure 4.460042003800340030002600S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*(ratio 14001400yardeni.com1000600100060020020087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.Figure 5.3660031600266002160036600316006/16DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*(ratio 016006600160087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.Page 3 / June 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0Figure 6.4040S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*20206/16yardeni.com0-200-20-40-4087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Figure 7.4040S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*20206/16yardeni.com0-200-20-40-4087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Page 4 / June 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
AAII SentimentFigure 8.100100AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKSAAII Bull Ratio* II Bull/Bear Ratio 220132014201520162017201820192020202120228080Bulls (41.1)70Jun 9Jun 16Bears (26.2)Latest 2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202102022* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).Page 5 / June 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull & BearsFigure 9.5.5140BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE5.0Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)4.54.0Consumer ConfidenceExpectations eni.com202000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.Figure 10.6530S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULL/BEAR RATIOS&P 500 Forward P/E* (21.2)25Investors IntelligenceBull/Bear Ratio (3.3)46/11206/1531521010yardeni.com588 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Investors Intelligence.Page 6 / June 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull & BearsFigure 11.5.55.5INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS5.05.04.54.5Bull/Bear 0.5.552-week moving average (3.3)yardeni.com.0.087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Source: Investors Intelligence.Figure 12.9090INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS CORRECTION CAMP(percent)6/15808070706060505052-week moving average (82.1)yardeni.com404088 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Source: Investors Intelligence.Page 7 / June 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull & BearsFigure 13.7070INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BEARS(percent)6060505040403030202052-week moving average (17.9)106/15yardeni.com1088 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Source: Investors Intelligence.Figure 14.88INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE (BULLS CORRECTION) / BEARS6652-week moving average (4.6)6/154422yardeni.com0088 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Source: Investors Intelligence.Page 8 / June 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull & BearsFigure 15.7070INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS: BULLS60606/1550504040303052-week moving average (58.2)yardeni.com202088 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Source: Investors IntelligenceFigure 16.200200INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS: BEARS CORRECTION1501501001006/1552-week moving average (77.6)yardeni.com505087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Source: Investors IntelligencePage 9 / June 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
Bull & BearsFigure 17.8080STOCK MARKET BULLS(percent, Investors Intelligence)Latest (54.1)60606/154040202088 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 231009590100STOCK MARKET BULLS CORRECTION(percent, Investors Intelligence)85Latest 4088 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23908090STOCK MARKET BULLS(percent, AAII)Latest 088 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Source: Investors Intelligence and American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).Page 10 / June 17, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear RatiosYardeni Research, Inc.www.yardeni.com
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* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence. Figure 3. Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 Page 2 / June 2, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc.
