The Market For Aviation Turbofan Engines - Forecast International

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The Market forAviation Turbofan EnginesProduct Code #F640A Special Focused Market Segment Analysis by:

Aviation Gas Turbine ForecastAnalysis 1The Market for Aviation TurbofanEngines2010-2019Table of ContentsExecutive Summary .2Introduction.2Trends.3Market Focus .3Competitive Environment.4Figure 1 - The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesUnit Production 2010 - 2019 (Bar Graph) .6Figure 2 - The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesValue of Production 2010 - 2019 (Bar Graph).6Manufacturers Review.7Market Statistics .9Table 1 - The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesUnit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2010 - 2019 .10Table 2 - The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesValue Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2010 - 2019 .22Figure 3 - The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesUnit Production % Market Share by Type 2010 - 2019 (Pie Chart) .34Figure 4 - The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesValue Statistics % Market Share by Type 2010 - 2019 (Pie Chart).34Table 3 - The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesUnit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2010 - 2019 .35Table 4 - The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesValue Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2010 - 2019 .37Figure 5 - The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesUnit Production % Market Share 2010 - 2019 (Pie Chart) .39Figure 6 - The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesValue Statistics % Market Share 2010 - 2019 (Pie Chart) .39Conclusion .40* 2010**September 2010

Product Code F640The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesPROGRAMSThe following reports are included in this section: (Note: a single report may cover several programs.)Aviadvigatel JSC Turbofan EnginesCFM International CFM56Engine Alliance GP7000Eurojet EJ200GE Honda HF120General Electric CF6-80C2/E1General Electric CF34General Electric F110General Electric F404/F414General Electric GE90General Electric GEnxGeneral Electric/Rolls-Royce F136GTRE GTX-35Honeywell HTF7000Honeywell TFE731International Aero Engines V2500Motor Sich/Progress (ZMKB) Turbofan EnginesPowerJet SaM146Pratt & Whitney Canada JT15DPratt & Whitney Canada PW300 SeriesPratt & Whitney Canada PW500Pratt & Whitney Canada PW600Pratt & Whitney F100Pratt & Whitney F117Pratt & Whitney F119Pratt & Whitney F135Pratt & Whitney PW1000GPratt & Whitney PW4000Pratt & Whitney PW6000Rolls-Royce AE 3007Rolls-Royce BR700 SeriesRolls-Royce RB211/TrentRolls-Royce TayRolls-Royce Turbomeca AdourSaturn Turbofan EnginesSnecma M88Volvo/GE RM12Williams International FJ33/FJ44 2010September 2010

Product Code F640The Market for Aviation Turbofan EnginesIntroductionKlimov RD-93PowerJet SaM146Pratt & Whitney F100Pratt & Whitney F117Pratt & Whitney F119Pratt & Whitney F135Pratt & Whitney PW1000GPratt & Whitney PW4000Pratt & Whitney PW6000Pratt & Whitney Canada JT15DPratt & Whitney Canada PW300Pratt & Whitney Canada PW500Pratt & Whitney Canada PW600Rolls-Royce AE 3007Rolls-Royce BR700Rolls-Royce RB211Rolls-Royce TayRolls-Royce TrentRR/Turbomeca AdourSaturn AL-31F/FNSaturn AL-55 F/ISnecma M88Volvo/GE RM12Williams International FJ33Williams International FJ44This analysis explores the market forces influencing theaero-turbine engine market and indicates the direction inwhich the aero-turbine industry is headed over the next10 years.The programs reviewed for this analysis are covered indepth in the reports found in the Aviation Gas TurbineForecast. These programs are:Aviadvigatel PS-90ACFM56Engine Alliance GP7200Eurojet EJ200General Electric CF6General Electric CF34General Electric F110GE/Rolls-Royce F136General Electric F404General Electric F414General Electric GE90General Electric GEnxHAL GTX-35VSHoneywell HTF7000Honeywell TFE731International Aero Engines V2500Motor Sich/Progress D-18TMotor Sich/Progress D-436, D-436TKlimov RD-33Klimov RD-35* 2010**

Aviation Gas Turbine ForecastHoneywell HTF7000Outlook Unit Production Forecast2010-2019Honeywell testing new Saber combustor for theHTF7500E300Embraer Legacy 450/500 service entry coincides withforecast market -flowturbofan engine in the 6,500-7,500-lbst class (29.233.7 kN).Sponsor. The HTF7000 was privately developed bythe prime contractor.Status. Currently in production for Challenger 300.Total Produced. As of June 2010, an estimated 613engines had been produced, including 11 test units.Application.Midsize business jets and 30- to50-passenger regional jet aircraft.Price Range. Estimated at 1.7 million in 2010 U.S.dollars.Competition. The HFT7000 faces competition fromthe 6,500-7,500 lbst (28.9-33.3 kN) Pratt & WhitneyCanada PW308, as well as from the 7,000-lbst(31.1-kN) Rolls-Royce AE 3007.ContractorsPrimeHoneywell Aerospace, Engines,Systems & Serviceshttp://www.honeywell.com, 111 S 34th St, Phoenix, AZ 85034-2892 United States,Tel: 1 (602) 231-1000, Fax: 1 (602) 231-5713, PrimeSubcontractorAAC Action Air Corporationhttp://www.actionaircorp.com, 13864 Magnolia Ave, Unit E, Chino, CA 91710 UnitedStates, Tel: 1 (909) 590-4889, Fax: 1 (909) 590-4887,Email: sales@actionaircorp.com (Fan)Barden Corphttp://www.bardenbearings.com, 200 Park Ave, PO Box 2449, Danbury, CT 06813-2449United States, Tel: 1 (203) 744-2211, Fax: 1 (203) 744-3756 (Main Shaft & AccessoryBall Bearings)Eaton Aerospace - HydraulicSystems Divisionhttp://www.aerospace.eaton.com, 5353 Highland Dr, Jackson, MS 39206-3449 UnitedStates, Tel: 1 (601) 981-2811, Fax: 1 (601) 987-5255 (Vane-Type Fuel Pump)GKN Aerospace - Cowes,Integrated Propulsion Systemshttp://www.gknaerospace.com, Ferry Rd, East Cowes, PO 32 6RA Isle of Wight, UnitedKingdom, Tel: 44 1983 294 101, Fax: 44 1983 291 006 (Nacelle)Goodrich Fuel & Utility Systemshttp://www.goodrich.com, 197 Ridgedale Ave, Cedar Knolls, NJ 07927 United States,Tel: 1 (973) 267-4500, Fax: 1 (973) 734-7982 (Wiring Harness) 2010September 2010

Page 2Aviation Gas Turbine ForecastHoneywell HTF7000Industria de Turbo PropulsoresSAhttp://www.itp.es, Parque Tecnologico, Edificio 300, Zamudio, 48170 Spain,Tel: 34 9 44662100, Fax: 34 9 44662193 (LP turbine)Unison Industrieshttp://www.unisonindustries.com, 7575 Baymeadows Way, Jacksonville, FL 32256United States, Tel: 1 (904) 739-4000, Fax: 1 (904) 739-4093 (Exciter)Comprehensive information on Contractors can be found in Forecast International’s “International Contractors” series. For a detailed description,go to www.forecastinternational.com (see Products & Samples/Governments & Industries) or call 1 (203) 426-0800.Contractors are invited to submit updated information to Editor, International Contractors, Forecast International, 22 Commerce Road, Newtown,CT 06470, USA; rich.pettibone@forecast1.comTechnical DataDesign Features. The Honeywell Engines HTF7000has the following design features:Fan. Wide-chord fan of 34.2 inches (86.8 cm) diameterproviding a bypass ratio of 4.2:1. Solid titanium blades.The fan is driven directly by the LP turbine.LP Compressor. Four-stage axial LP compressor withintegrally bladed rotors. Two variable stator stages.HP Compressor. Single, centrifugal HP compressor.HP Turbine. Two-stage HP turbine.LP Turbine. Three-stage LP turbine.Accessories.diagnostics.Performance. Flat-rated at 6,500 lbst (28.6 kN), theHTF7000 delivers 1,910 lbst (8.4 kN) at cruise with aspecific fuel consumption of 0.642 lb/hr/lbst(0.291 kg/hr/kgst).Combustor. Effusion-cooled combustor.HTF7000Source: Honeywell AerospaceSeptember 2010Dual-channel FADEC with built-in

Aviation Gas Turbine ForecastPage 3Honeywell HTF7000Variants/UpgradesAS907. Honeywell's former AS907 (now HTF7000) isflat-rated to 7,595 lbst (33.8 kN). The first certificatedvariant, the AS907-1-1A, is rated 6,944 lbst (30.89 kN)at takeoff at sea level, ISA 20ºC. Powering theBombardier Challenger 300, the engine is flat-rated to6,500 lbst. The engine has fewer parts than its LF507predecessor, and is made of conventional hot sectionmaterials offering wide operating margins and a15,000-cycle disc life. The engine's fan, LP turbine,accessory gearbox module, and main shaft bearings andseals are all "maintenance on condition" rated, and canbe inspected on-wing. The engine has extensivediagnostic/troubleshooting capabilities and can undergomaintenance at fixed intervals, or be serviced under an"on-condition" maintenance program.AS977. The AS977 was selected to power the BritishAerospace Regional Aircraft (BAE) Avro RJX over theP&WC PW308. The engine was to provide 15 percentlower SFC, 5 percent more thrust on climb-out, and a20 percent maintenance savings compared with theHoneywell LF507.Development of this engine variant was suspended upontermination of the BAE RJX program. The remainingvariant is now known as the HTF7000.Program ReviewBackground.The AS900 was conceived as asuccessor to the LF500 series of engines that power theBritish Aerospace Avro RJ series of jets.Development of the AS900 began in 1996, and a testunit for gas generator technology validation wasdeveloped in 1997. Bombardier formally launched theAS900 development program in 1998 when the enginewas selected to power its new Continental (nowChallenger 300) medium business jet.Shortlythereafter, at the 1998 Farnborough Air Show, theAS900 was announced as the engine that would powerthe RJ series successor, the RJX 70-, 85-, and 100-seataircraft.The key development driver of the AS900 is low cost ofownership. An 11-member airline advisory board madeit clear to Honeywell that low cost of ownership was itsprimary consideration when comparing the new enginewith the LF507 powering the BAE/Avro RJ seriesaircraft. The desired reductions in ownership costs werestated as being 20 to 30 percent lower directmaintenance costs and 15 percent better fuelconsumption. A minimum 12,000-hour on-wing timewas also specified. The engine's fan, low-pressureturbine, high-pressure turbine, and combustor can all bereplaced on-wing. Only 13 standard tools are requiredfor maintenance of an engine. All discs are designed for25,000 cycles (takeoffs and landings), rising from15,000 hours at service entry.Looking at Honeywell's partners, AIDC of Taiwan isdesigning and building the engine's fan, Techspace isbuilding the rotating LP turbine hardware, ITP isproducing the static structures of the LP turbine, andGKN Aerospace is developing the engine's nacelle as apartner to Honeywell. The engine, developed as a fullyintegrated powerplant system, includes the nacelle,thrust reverser, and engine mounting accessories. 2010Applications. Applications for the AS900 engineinclude the following:Bombardier Challenger 300. Bombardier announcedthe Continental Jet (since renamed Challenger 300) atthe 1998 NBAA show. The jet seats eight and offers acruising speed of Mach 0.8 and a range of 3,100nautical miles with seats filled. The aircraft is targetedat the so-called super midsize market segment, which isoccupied by types such as the Citation X and CitationSovereign, Falcon 50EX, Gulfstream G200, andHawker Horizon. Sovereign and Horizon are seen asthe closest competitors.For the Challenger 300, the HTF7000 is flat-rated to6,500 lbst, ISA 15 C, with 10 percent thrust growthpossible through Full Authority Digital Engine Control(FADEC) rescheduling.The Challenger 300 first flew in August 2001.Bombardier twice slipped the aircraft's certificationtarget date, first into the first quarter of 2003 and then tothe second quarter. In May 2003, the first AS907Integrated Propulsion System, including engine, nacelle,thrust reverser, and accessories, was delivered toBombardier for installation aboard a Challenger 300.Receiving FAA and JAA certification in 2002, theAS907 won Flight International's Aerospace IndustryAward for Business & Corporate Aviation after movingfrom announcement to certification in just 40 months.The engine's designers were commended for achieving ahigh level of durability and ease of maintenance. Allline-replaceable units can be changed using just 13simple hand tools.In late 2003,Name Changed to HTF7000.Honeywell revamped its designation protocol, changingthe AS907's name to HTF7000 (HTF for HoneywellTurbo Fan and 7000 for the thrust class in pounds).September 2010

Page 4Aviation Gas Turbine ForecastHoneywell HTF7000Honeywell models already in production were notrenamed, but the AS907 had not yet entered service, andwas redesignated using the new naming protocol, whichwould be applied to all forthcoming Honeywell engines.BAE Systems Avro RJX. The Avro RJX craft wereessentially re-engined Avro RJ-design aircraft of 70, 85,and 100 seats. The four-engined aircraft were to beshort-haul regional jets with exceptionally low-noiseand short-field performance, particularly in hot orhigh-altitude situations.The first RJX, an RJX-85, flew for the first time in2001.In November 2001, BAE announced it was shuttingdown its Regional Aircraft Ltd division and terminatingthe RJX programs. The decision was made in theaftermath of the events of 9/11. Demand had softenedfor the RJ series, and the manufacturer had lined uponly 14 firm RJX orders at that time.BAE completed two RJ85s and two RJ100s that wereon the line at Woodford; the unfilled RJX orders werecanceled.Gulfstream G250. Gulfstream announced its newG250 at the NBAA show in October 2008. The G250 isa super midsize jet offering the longest range in itsclass, along with the largest cabin and the fastest speed.Gulfstream selected the 7,445-lbst HTF7250G for thenew jet; first flight occurred in December 2009 andcertification is scheduled for 2011.Embraer Legacy 450/500. Embraer announced thenames of the newest additions to its executive jetproduct line at EBACE in Geneva in May 2008. TheLegacy 450 and Legacy 500 will compete in themid-light and midsize business jet segments; both arepowered by Honeywell's HTF7500E, although the 500'sengines have a slight increase in thrust. The Legacy 500is expected to enter service in the second half of 2012,and the Legacy 450 in the second half of 2013FundingNo development funding for the HTF7000 has been identified, though Honeywell has stated that development costscould exceed 250 million.Contracts/Orders & OptionsNo recent contracts for the HTF7000 series have been 012001200120022002200320042008200820092016Major DevelopmentAS900 development begunFirst run of technology validation coreAS900 program launchedFirst engine to testFirst flight of AS900 on testbed aircraftAvro RJX-85 makes first flightFirst flight of Challenger 300RJX program terminatedFAA certification of AS907JAA certification of AS907AS907 redesignated HTF7000HTF7000 enters service on Challenger 300Embraer adds Legacy 450 & 500Gulfstream announces G250HTF7000 fleet passes 500,000-hour markContinued production/support of HTF7000Worldwide Distribution/InventoriesAs of June 2010, an estimated 613 HTF7000 series engines had been produced to support the Challenger 300program, as well as several other aircraft and R&D/test programs.September 2010

Aviation Gas Turbine ForecastPage 5Honeywell HTF7000Forecast RationaleHoneywell's HTF7000 series picked up three newapplications from Gulfstream and Embraer over the lasttwo years, and continues on Bombardier'sChallenger 300.HTF7250G in Flight TestingGulfstream's super midsize G250 is in flight testing,powered by the 7,445-lbst HTF7250G engine. Theprogram involves three aircraft and will reportedly last1,300 hours. Certification is expected in 2011, withservice entry occurring later that year. The G250 willreplace the Pratt Canada-powered G200.Newest Engines to Power EmbraersThe new HTF7500E will appear on Embraer's mid-lightLegacy 450 and midsize Legacy 500 jets and feature anupgraded Saber (single annular burner for emissionreduction) combustor. The first versions of thiscombustor will appear on other HTF7000 variants,expected to enter service in 2011. As of this writing, thefinal combustor design had not been finalized.Honeywell's first-generation RQL (rich/quench/lean)combustor is nearing certification (expected in Q3) andpromises a 25 percent reduction in nitrous oxide (NOx)emissions compared to comparable current engines.This new combustor will be incorporated intoproduction engines early in 2011. A more advancedcombustor that is expected to reduce NOx emissions toaround 50 percent is in development.Honeywell Awarded FAA ContractHoneywell has been awarded a contract from the FAAfor the development of engine technology to reduce fuelconsumption and test aviation biofuels. The five-yearagreement is valued at 27 million, and was awardedunder the Continuous Lower Energy, Emissions andNoise (CLEEN) program. Honeywell will use itsHTF7000-based TECH 7000 test engine as a technologydemonstrator.Overall, we estimate HTF7000 production at 1,676engines over the next decade.Ten-Year OutlookESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR UNIT PRODUCTIONHigh ConfidenceDesignation or ProgramThru 2009201020112012Good otalHoneywell AerospaceHTF7000 Challenger 21271641982162332442561,676HTF7250 G G250HTF7500E Legacy 450HTF7500E Legacy 500 2010September 2010

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Aviation Gas Turbine Forecast Honeywell HTF7000 Outlook Honeywell testing new Saber combustor for the HTF7500E 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Units Unit Production Forecast 2010-2019 Units 70 76 92 127 164 198 216 233 244 256