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Make It Count: Lessons for Upskilling inTimes of UncertaintyOctober 2020Candace Hester Sami Kitmitto Semret Yibass

IntroductionIt is commonly understood that education is one of the most reliable paths to economic security—particularly for Black and Latinx people and for people from low-wealth families.1 But it is less well knownthat the greatest unmet labor market demand is for workers with “middle skills,” who have somepostsecondary training but not a 4-year degree.2In the throes of an economic downturn, such as the fallout associated with COVID-19, people from allwalks of life may find themselves in search of reemployment and additional training.3 This briefsummarizes findings from a recent study on the relative return to two training pathways to middle skills—credit-bearing and non-credit-bearing credentialing. Findings indicate that credit-bearing credentials yieldsignificantly improved earnings of about 5,500 per year.What Are Credit- and Non-Credit-Bearing Credentials?This brief summarizes findings from a study that contrasted two potential paths to middle-skills training:(a) credit-bearing certification, including associate degree programs, and (b) non-credit-bearingcertification, including certificate and licensure programs. Because the credit-bearing and non-creditbearing programs often are in similar fields, such is the case for nurse’s aide or computer operationsprograms, the main difference between credit and noncredit programs are that noncredit programs areterminal in the sense that they are not designed to build toward an associate’s degree or a bachelor’sdegree.Yearly EarningsThe appeal of some noncredit programs is that they are shorter, occasionally less expensive, and evensometimes provided through an employer. The appeal of the credit-based programs is that they are moreportable or have a flexible naturesuch that students can earnExhibit 1. Earnings by Age and Highest Education Attainmentcredits that will follow them from 60,000one program to the next and 50,000more easily from one employer to 40,000the next across time. 30,000The earnings profiles ofindividuals who attain credit and 20,000non-credit-bearing credentials are 10,000similar through their mid twenties. But by age 30, the18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30earnings of credit-bearingAgeprogram completers exceed thoseGroup TotalNo high school diplomaof non-credit-bearing programHigh school diplomaNon-credit-bearing credentialCredit-bearing credentialFour-year or higher degreecompleters (Exhibit 1). Becauseresearch indicates that earningsNote. Profiles are based on respondents’ highest educational attainment for 6,093survey respondents. The sample excludes individuals who attain a 4-year degreedifferences tend to accelerateafter age 30, it is likely that these within 6 years of graduating high school.initially small differences continue to grow.4,5Make It Count: Lessons for Upskilling in Times of Uncertainty3

The Landscape of Middle-Skill TrainingBecause training access is not random, descriptive findings such as those presented in Exhibit 1 areinsufficient to uncover the impact of a career training program on lifetime earnings. Consider, forexample, child rearing: People are more likely to enroll in a training program that they perceive to be morechallenging when they do not have children. And, the presence of children may reduce an individual’searnings unrelated to their training.6In addition, where you live can have a tremendous influence on training access and, in turn, on trainingcompletion. Exhibit 2 illustrates that credit-bearing program completion is more prominent on the coasts,relative to non-credit-bearing program completion. And the reverse (a relative prominence for non-creditbearing program completion) occurs inland.Exhibit 2. Program Completion Per Capita by United States GeographyCredit-Bearing ProgramsNon-Credit-Bearing ProgramsSource: An interactive map displaying the above is at east-1.amazonaws.com/;Data are from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System and Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act Records.4Make It Count: Lessons for Upskilling in Times of Uncertainty

The Relative Impact of Credit-Bearing Versus Non-Credit-BearingTraining on EarningsThe study on which this brief is based presentsevidence on the impact of training on earnings,unrelated to geography and family status, as well asThis study analyzed data from the Nationalfactors that remain constant across time. TheLongitudinal Survey of Youth 1997findings indicate that overall, respondents whoassociated with individuals who were agedcomplete credit-bearing programs are employed at18 to age 30 between 1997 and 2016. Theroughly the same rate as respondents who completenon-credit-bearing programs, but they earn aboutstudy focused only on individuals who did17% more annually (Exhibit 3). This typically equatesnot complete a 4-year degree within 6to about 5,500 more each year since respondentsyears of finishing high school. Profileswho completedpresented in Exhibit 1 are based onnon-credit-bearingAnalytical Detailsrespondents’ highest educationalprograms typicallyearn aboutattainment for 6,093 survey respondents.The study used individual fixed 33,000. Weeffects to identify changes infound that this increase in earnings is associated with both anearnings that accrue toincrease in hours and hourly wage.Data Used in This StudyExhibit 3. Percentage Change in Earnings Related to CredentialAttainment Compared WithNon-Credit-Bearing Attainmentpersistent differences betweenindividuals, such ascomponents of ability or60%51%motivation that stay constantacross time. In addition, the50%model includes controls for life40%circumstances that may changesimultaneous with training30%20%respondents, accounting forprogram interest including17%concurrent work status, maritalstatus, number of children, and10%age by race and gender fixed0%Credit-bearing credential Four-year or higher degreeNote. The sample excludes individuals who attain a 4-year degree within 6 years ofgraduating high school or attaining a General Educational Development certificate.effects. Additional technicaldetails are available from thestudy authors upon request.Make It Count: Lessons for Upskilling in Times of Uncertainty5

How Can Policy Support More Credit-Bearing Credential Completion?Study LimitationsThe largest study limitationwas the inability to randomlyassign students to credit-and non-credit-bearingprograms. Although studymodels controlled forobserved factors that changeacross time (e.g., work statusand child rearing) andsystematic differencesbetween individuals whichare persistent across time(including those that areunobserved, such as somecomponents of ability), therewere no controls forunobserved differences thatThe study findings discussed in this brief indicate that credit-bearingtraining improves earnings significantly more than non-credit-bearingtraining. As such, these findings indicate that policymakers andeducational institutions should consider ways to make credit-bearingcredentials more accessible. Coupled with prior research evidence,the findings presented in this brief provide support for threestrategies for improving students’ outcomes7:Newly matriculating students may fare better withassistance in understanding how the evidence ondifferent course-taking pathways best informs how theycan meet their career goals and needs.Educational institutions and employers may considerenhancing the frequency and transparency of availablemessaging on the relative portability of variouscredentialing opportunities across educationalinstitutions, states, industries, and employers.Industry associations and workforce regulation boards maylook for opportunities to collaborate with educationalinstitutions to increase the portability of trainings bycreating competency benchmarks for courses and tyingthem to career pathways.8There are also additional considerations that could be useful tounderstanding these findings. The relationship betweencredentialing pathway and an individuals’ field of study, background,and long-term interests may serve as important co-determinants for the findings presented herein.change across time.Employers, states, and workforce regulation boards should consider gathering ongoing evidence on theexperiences and outcomes of diverse students’ in a range of training programs to enhance theirunderstanding of the ability for a range of programs to serve them well. These data should aim to includeinformation on the roles that credit-bearing and non-credit-bearing training programs play in facilitating orimpeding students’ abilities to meet their education and career goals and succeed in life. Without carefuldata collection, evaluation, and support services, training programs and their stakeholders mayundermine the longer-term successes of the students that they aim to provide.6Make It Count: Lessons for Upskilling in Times of Uncertainty