Transcription
Overview inSemiconductor Sector andFuture Technology Trends
DisclaimerThe information in this webinar is for general information purposes only andis provided on an “as is” basis without any representations or warranties ofany kind. The information does not constitute legal, financial, trading orinvestment advice and it does not make any recommendation orendorsement regarding any and all products mentioned. All participants ofthe presentation and persons reading the information in these presentationslides are advised to seek independent advice and/or consult relevant laws,regulations and rules prior to relying on or taking any action based on theinformation presented. All examples and views expressed are entirely thepresenter’s own.Bursa Malaysia Berhad, the Bursa Malaysia group of companies (the Company)and the presenter do not accept any liability for: the information providedduring the presentation and in the presentation slides (including but notlimited to any liability pertaining to the accuracy, completeness or currencyof the information); and for any investment or trading decisions made on thebasis of this information.2
Speaker ProfileDAVID POHFounder, Spiral Group Sdn. Bhd.An engineer by training, David began his career as an engineer in the telecommunicationsindustry for 10 years before turning to his passion in value investing. He served as a Director ina local equities education and research firm for 3 years, managing research efforts anddelivering advanced value investing and portfolio management education series. Thereafter, hestepped out to pursue his own aspirations, establishing the Spiral Thinker Alliance - acollaborative alliance to promote intelligent value investing and develop algorithm-basedadaptive portfolio strategies for sustainable, long term wealth creation. David is now a fulltime investor and dedicates his time and resources to nurture the youth in financial literacy. Heis often invited to speak in brokers’ seminars, webinars as well as other BURSA-endorsedevents, and his professional comments and opinions on value investing are featured in businesspublications like FOCUS MALAYSIA. David also provides consultation services in value investingand advanced portfolio strategies for high net worth individuals.fb.me/fixpressmy3
AGENDAOverview in Semiconductor Sector and Future Technology Trends The Importance of Semiconductor The Evolution of Technology Major Semiconductor Players Semiconductor Supply Chain Semiconductor Supply Chain in KLSE Future Trends in Modern Technology4
THE IMPORTANCE OF SEMICONDUCTORData is the New Oil, and this is just the BeginningA century ago, the resource in question was oil. Now similarconcerns are being raised by the giants that deal in data,the oil of the digital era. These titans—Alphabet (Google’sparent company), Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—look unstoppable.5
THE IMPORTANCE OF SEMICONDUCTORKondratiev Waves : Economic Cycles & Technology AdvancementsIn the 1930s, a mathematician named Nikolai Kondratiev studied economic histories andconcluded that it was better explained by technology rather in leaps of every 50 to 60 years,known as Kondratieff cycles, K-waves or long economic cycles. Each Kondratieff cycle endswith a crisis, and Kondratieff found that capitalism reinvented itself with each crisis. Inrecent decades there has been considerable progress in historical economics and the progressof technology, and numerous investigations of the relationship between technological6innovation and economic cycles.
THE IMPORTANCE OF SEMICONDUCTORSemiconductors : The Heart of Modern TechnologySemiconductors are essential technology enablers that power many of the cutting-edgedigital devices we use today. The global semiconductor industry is set to continue its robustgrowth well into the next decade due to emerging technologies such as autonomous driving,artificial intelligence (AI), 5G and Internet of Things, coupled with consistent spending onR&D and competition among key players.7
THE IMPORTANCE OF SEMICONDUCTORGlobal Semiconductor Revenues : 6% CAGR8
THE EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGYSource: VLSI Research, ISS US, January 2018The 3 Eras of Demand : Dawn of the Data Centric EraThe digital era is enabling a radical reshaping of the relationship between technologycapabilities and business opportunities. The explosion of new applications such asautonomous vehicles, digital healthcare, quantum computing, and cryptocurrency miningetc are driving the need for more industry-wide collaboration to enable companies tocompete in the “Data Centric” era9
THE EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGYIoT : Internet of ThingsBy 2020 more than 50 billion things, ranging from cranes to coffee machines, will beconnected to the internet. That means a lot of data will be created - too much data,in fact, to be manageable or to be kept forever affordably.10
THE EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGYTechnology Advancements Drive the Demand for Semiconductors11
THE EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGYGlobal Semiconductor Growth by ApplicationsCompiled from various PwC reports on Global Semiconductor Outlook12
MAJOR PLAYERS IN SEMICONDUCTORINNOVATIONThe Difference between Tech (Semiconductor) and Big TechBig TechSemicon. (Tech)13
MAJOR SEMICONDUCTOR PLAYERSGlobal Top 10 Semiconductor Companies by Revenue, 2020IDM/Foundry, Consumer, MemoryIDM, Consumer, Computing, NetworkingMemory (DRAM, Flash)Foundry (pure play)IDM, Memory (DRAM, NAND)IDM / Fabless, Communications (Radio), Consumer,AutomotiveIDM / Fabless, Communications (RFFE, Fiber Optics),EnterpriseIDM / Foundry, Computing, Integrated Circuits,AutomotiveFoundry, Consumer, MemoryIDM / Fabless, GPU, Consumer, AutomotiveSource : panies/14
MAJOR SEMICONDUCTOR PLAYERSGrowth by Mergers & AcquisitionsSource : 6c-cef2-4ce5-acc6-de4e8465b42615
MAJOR SEMICONDUCTOR PLAYERSGrowth by Mergers & AcquisitionsIn the beginning, there were multiple vendors, mainly dominated by Western companies.Over time, Chinese vendors like HUAWEI have been gaining customers across the Westernworld market. Then, vendor companies begins carrying out mergers, acquisitions, andcollaborations.16
SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAINSemiconductor Manufacturing ProcessATEFront-EndBack-Endcohu.gcs-web.com OSAT Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly & Testing ATE Automated Testing Equipment17
SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAINSemiconductor Backend Processes : OSAT & PackagingSources : TT Vision IPO Prospectus Analog Devices18
SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAINGlobal Top 10 OSAT & Packaging Companies (2017)19
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSEImportance of Semiconductor Industry in Malaysian EconomyMalaysia Total Exports (2018)Total: 270BSource : oec.world/en/profile/hs92/.20
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSEMalaysia as a Global Semiconductor PlayerExporters of Semiconductor Devices (2018)Total: 91.2BGLOBAL RANKING : #6Source : oec.world/en/profile/hs92/.Exporters of Integrated Circuits (2018)Total: 619BGLOBAL RANKING : #521
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSEFully Developed Semiconductor EcosystemSource : MIDA22
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSEPenang : Asia’s Silicon IslandSource : semiconsea.org23
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSEFocus on Backend Processes : OSAT, ATE & EMSSource : The Edge Weekly, 16 September 201924
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSEKLSE Technology Index : More than 90 YGL(45%) 150%Source : tradingview.com 25
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSECase Study : OSAT - UNISEM MARKET CAP. : RM2,683m PRICE: RM3.69 PE RATIO: n/a DY: 1.6% OaCY: 6.0% Cash Position : Vry Strong ClienteleSource : UNISEM FY2019 Annual Report Bursastation @ 2020/10/06:26
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSECase Study : OSAT – INARI AMERTRON BERHAD MARKET CAP. : RM7,560m PRICE: RM2.31 PE RATIO: 49x DY: 1.9% OaCY: 3.6% Cash Position : Net Cash Clientele: INARI engaged with Broadcom to secure mixed signal testbusiness across product lines, including Ethernet networkingand Wi-Fi and now extended to wafer fabrication. 5G will increase the demand of IoT as well as factoryautomation, this will further push the demand for opto- couplersthat support automotive and industrial automationSource : INARI Investor Relations Presentation BofA Credit Suisse Bursastation @ 2020/10/0627
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSECase Study : ATE – PENTAMASTER CORP. BERHAD MARKET CAP. : RM3,633m PRICE: RM5.10 PE RATIO: 44x DY: 0.2% OaCY: 3.8% Cash Position : Net Cash ClienteleSource : PENTAMASTER Company Website Spiral Thinker Group Alpha Research Bursastation @ 2020/10/06:28
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSECase Study : ATE – MI TECHNOVATION BERHAD MARKET CAP. : RM3,148m PRICE: RM4.22 PE RATIO: 53x DY: 0.9% OaCY: 1.0% Cash Position : Net Cash ClienteleSource : RHB Small Cap Jewel 16th Ed - MI TECHNOVATION Bursastation @ 2020/10/06:29
Total: 619BSEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN KLSECase Study : EMS – V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD MARKET CAP. : RM4,243m PRICE: RM2.26 PE RATIO: 37x DY: 1.9% OaCY: 5.2% Cash Position : Efficient ClienteleSource : VS Investor Relations Update 2020 October Alliance DBS Bursastation @ 2020/10/06:30
FUTURE TRENDS IN MODERN TECHNOLOGYIR4AI, AVetc ActuatorProductivityIoTThe Future 5GEnablerEmerging Technologies : Expected Timeline31
FUTURE TRENDS IN MODERN TECHNOLOGYSource : asia.nikkei.comThreats & Opportunities : US & the World vs ChinaThe rest of the world is going to face a stark choice between US or Chinese versionsof the Internet. Information and services will be a restricted commodity with accessdictated by the government in your country of residence. This fragmentation of theInternet is a reversal of globalisation and the principles of free and open trade, thefeatures of which allowed the United States, China and all other market economiesaround the Asia Pacific to grow to their current positions as economic powerhouses.32
FUTURE TRENDS IN MODERN TECHNOLOGYCOVID-19 Accelerates Digital Transformation33
34Source : Yahoo Finance
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MARKET CAP. : RM7,560m PRICE : RM2.31 PE RATIO : 49x DY : 1.9% OaCY : 3.6% Cash Position : Net Cash Clientele : INARI engaged with Broadcom to secure mixed signal test business across product lines, including Ethernet networking and Wi-Fi and now extended to wafer fabrication.
