2022 Market Outlook Hedge Funds In 2022: Changing With Changing Risk

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2022 Market OutlookHedge Fundsin 2022:Changing WithChanging RiskIn 2022, we believe the most notabletrends will be the continuationof ones that gathered strengthin 2021: Higher volatility levels inboth the equity and fixed incomemarkets leading to wider dispersionin performance of stocks, bondsand off-the-run investmentopportunities. The main volatilitydrivers were—and continue to be—the triumvirate of headlines thatbecame all-too-familiar: Tightening ofmonetary policy by the U.S. FederalReserve, increasing inflation, andthe uncontrolled growing spread ofCOVID-19. Hedge funds performedwell through this volatility(Display 1).MARK VAN DER ZWAN, CFACIO and Head of AIP HedgeFund SolutionsAIP HEDGE FUND SOLUTIONSPlease see important disclaimers at the end of this article.

2022 MARKET OUTLOOKRisk management seen as key tohedge fund success in 2022In contrast, risk markets in prior yearswere mostly driven by accommodativeFed policy and fiscal stimulus, creatingan ideal environment that lifted all boatsand beta returns. Hedge funds, whichlimit market risks and seek to generatealpha, underperformed.But rising volatility and performancedispersion create a fertile field for hedgefund managers, who found their footingagain in 2021, as shown by alphaproduction in Display 2. The rollingtwo-year average annualized alpha hasbeen positive all year and is the highest ithas been since January 2018. One needsto go back to August 2011 to find priorperiods of such strong and consistentalpha production.DISPLAY 1Hedge funds had solid performance in 2021.Last 12M (Ended November 0.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%HFRI Equity Hedge HFRI Event-Driven HFRI Fund Weighted(Total) Index(Total) IndexComposite IndexHFRI Macro(Total) IndexHFRI Relative Value(Total) IndexSource: HFR, Inc., as of November 30, 2021.DISPLAY 2The changing nature of riskWe believe that the biggest challenge tohedge funds in 2022 will be the changingnature of market risk. Hedging unwantedmarket exposure has always been keyto protecting alpha, but doing so hasbecome more complicated and nuanced.Hedge fund managers have generated alpha consistently for the pasttwo years.For example, the impact of “risk on/risk off” episodes has typically beeneffectively hedged with the S&P 500Index, largely because factors likegrowth, momentum and value have hadreasonably consistent—and predictable—performance during such periods.1.50%But the same has not held for “COVIDon/COVID off” episodes. Investorshave had to rapidly switch betweenthe prospects of the economy openingup and shutting down, and the relatedimpacts on stocks from labor shortages,supply chain dynamics and so forth.Performance factors underwent large2Annualized Alpha (Rolling 2Y) of HFRI Fund Weighted Composite to the S&P 500 Source: HFR, Inc., as of November 30, 2021.MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENTJunJulAugSepOctNov

HEDGE FUNDS IN 2022: CHANGING WITH CHANGING RISKDISPLAY 3In “COVID on/COVID off” episodes, factor exposures behaved very differently than the S&P 500.Normalized S&P 500 Index and Barra Factor Returns1From November 26 to November 30, 2021Normalized Return(Z-Score 22 Day Lookback)3210-1-2-3-4S&P 500USLiquidityUS DividendYieldUSGrowthUS Long-Term US MidUSReversal Capitalization Momentum Nov 26 Nov 29US ShortInterestUS SizeUS Value Nov 30Past returns are not indicative of future results. Source: Barra (US Barra Medium Term Model)shifts in direction and magnitude, and asa result, the S&P 500 became too blunta tool for hedging in that environment.Factor exposures associated with hedgefunds have been behaving very differentlythan the market, as can be seen in the lastfew days of November 2021 (Display 3).The Omicron scareWe saw the impact of this in the wake ofthe Omicron scare of November 2021,when managers with good securityselection lagged the quick rebound in theS&P 500. For effective risk management,managers have to know how a basketof principal factor risks maps onto theirportfolios. Many clearly didn’t have arefined understanding of this “map” inthe evolving COVID on/COVID offworld, which likely led to overhedging orother uneven factor exposures.Another clue comes from the relativeperformance of classic long/shortmanagers in comparison with multi-portfolio manager platforms. We believethat the multi-PM platforms generallycan have a structural advantage for riskmanagement.and no one—including the Fed—reallyknows the optimal rate level for slowinginflation without harming the recovery.The economy has been shaped bysuper-easy money for a long time. Evenan increase of 75 basis points in 2022,as contemplated by the Fed, is a bigadjustment, and it is a big leap of faith toassume it will be a smooth one.Assuming the platforms devote sufficientresources and expertise to that function,they potentially can manage risk acrossmore dimensions and continuallydevelop the map connecting factors topositions. Even after accounting for theirhigher-cost pass-through structure, theafter-fee results of the Platform PeerGroup (Display 4) and their respectiveinvestment profile compare favorably.COVID is hardly the only likely sourceof volatility in 2022. The Fed’s taperingis potentially a major source, given theconflicting currents the central bank mayhave to navigate, with inflation printscoming in over 6% and the 10-year U.S.Treasury around 1.5% as of December2021. An accelerated tightening policycould slow growth, especially if there is aparallel drag from COVID developments,Implications for 2022Our outlook for more volatility anddispersion in performance for 2022 has anumber of implications:is likely to playa larger role in alpha generation, giventhe expected start/stop nature of themarkets and related choppiness thatis likely to disrupt sector trends andbroader thematic investing. By thesame logic, the intrasector opportunityset looks promising as a source ofidiosyncratic return independent of SECURITY SELECTIONNormalized returns is the statistical process of standardized returns by using the prior 22 trading day returns to calculate the average and standarddeviation and applying the Z-Score (x-average)/standard deviation methodology.1MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT3

2022 MARKET OUTLOOKCOVID on/COVID off, inflationor other macro influences. As notedearlier, long/short strategies that aresupported tightly by risk management,tend to preserve alpha better(Display 4). DIVERSIFICATION OF ALPHA SOURCESbecomes especially important becausedispersion is a double-edged swordthat increases both the number ofopportunities and the chance ofbad calls. Controlling intermanagercorrelations is critical—it ensures risksdo not overlap and helps minimizelosses from bad calls.for us includeglobal macro, with managers agileenough to capture the value of thecross currents in today’s environment,with a short-term, tacticallyoriented approach.DISPLAY 4Multi-PM platforms have outperformed classic long/short hedge funds.Last 5 Years (ended November 2021)PLATFORM PEER( 10B AVERAGE)HFRI EQUITY HEDGE(TOTAL) 59Annualized Alpha9.1%-1.1%Beta0.060.56Sources: HFR, Inc., Morgan Stanley. From December 31, 2016 to November 30, 2021. PROMISING STRATEGIESSelect commodity strategies fall in thiscategory, such as taking advantageof quick-shifting currents in supplyand demand in metals, livestock andagricultural markets, or even relativevalue trading in the oil marketsbetween West Texas Intermediate andBrent Crude. However, pure pricemoves are only part of the story, asspecialists can also maximize calendarspreads, contract rolls and physicaldelivery features.Less appealing strategies include longbias credit risk, where spreads are athistorically tight levels, and mortgagearbitrage—a sector hindered by alimited upside and the fact that durationtypically lengthens as rates rise.4 USING HEDGE FUNDS AS DIVERSIFIERSin classic 60/40 stock/bond portfolioscan help address a fundamentalproblem with bonds in 2022: Mostfixed-income sectors are long duration.For example, with a duration of 6.6years, the Bloomberg Aggregate Indexwould lose over 6% of its value witheach 1% increase in rates, and wouldbe unlikely to provide much of ahedge for equities in that scenario.As absolute-return vehicles, hedgefunds typically have a low beta toequities and rates, and thus may bean attractive hedge complement forbonds in 2022. CRISIS RISK OFFSET STRATEGIESMORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENTdeserve consideration by investorsseeking protection from tail riskevents. Such hedging strategies seekto deliver positive returns during lossscenarios while reducing outright costsin normal markets. They can alsoprovide the requisite diversificationneeded to allow for continued exposureto desired risks. Some risk offsetprograms are designed to even provideliquidity during times of significantmarket crisis.Changing with changing riskThe volatility and dispersion of returnswe expect in 2022 suggest that securityselection will be a key driver of returns.But this environment will demand morefrom managers. We believe successwill also require sophisticated portfolioconstruction, supported by a nuancedunderstanding of hedging as factorexposures change in the COVID on/COVID off world. In our view, investorswould benefit from considering hedgefunds constructed with diversifiedalpha sources and a strong riskmanagement process.

HEDGE FUNDS IN 2022: CHANGING WITH CHANGING RISKDEFINITIONSHFRI Equity Hedge (Total) Index: Investment Managers who maintain positionsboth long and short in primarily equity and equity derivative securities. A widevariety of investment processes can be employed to arrive at an investmentdecision, including both quantitative and fundamental techniques; strategiescan be broadly diversified or narrowly focused on specific sectors and canrange broadly in terms of levels of net exposure, leverage employed, holdingperiod, concentrations of market capitalizations and valuation ranges of typicalportfolios. EH managers would typically maintain at least 50% exposure to,and may in some cases be entirely invested in, equities, both long and short.HFRI Event-Driven (Total) Index: Investment Managers who maintainpositions in companies currently or prospectively involved in corporatetransactions of a wide variety including but not limited to mergers,restructurings, financial distress, tender offers, shareholder buybacks, debtexchanges, security issuance or other capital structure adjustments. Securitytypes can range from most senior in the capital structure to most junior orsubordinated, and frequently involve additional derivative securities. EventDriven exposure includes a combination of sensitivities to equity markets,credit markets and idiosyncratic, company specific developments. Investmenttheses are typically predicated on fundamental characteristics (as opposedto quantitative), with the realization of the thesis predicated on a specificdevelopment exogenous to the existing capital structure.HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index (“HFRI Fund Weighted”): The HFRIFund Weighted Index is a global, equal-weighted index of single-manager fundsthat report to HFR Database. Constituent funds report monthly net of all feesperformance in USD and have a minimum of 50 million under managementor 10 Million under management and a twelve-month track record.HFRI Macro (Total) Index: Refers to the HFRI Macro (Total) Index, sponsoredby Hedge Fund Research, Inc. Macro funds trade a broad range of strategiesin which the investment process is predicated on movements in underlyingeconomic variables and the impact these have on equity, fixed income, hardcurrency and commodity markets.HFRI Relative Value (Total) Index: Investment Managers who maintainpositions in which the investment thesis is predicated on realization ofa valuation discrepancy in the relationship between multiple securities.Managers employ a variety of fundamental and quantitative techniques toestablish investment theses, and security types range broadly across equity,fixed income, derivative or other security types. Fixed income strategies aretypically quantitatively driven to measure the existing relationship betweeninstruments and, in some cases, identify attractive positions in which therisk adjusted spread between these instruments represents an attractiveopportunity for the investment manager. RV position may be involved incorporate transactions also, but as opposed to ED exposures, the investmentthesis is predicated on realization of a pricing discrepancy between relatedsecurities, as opposed to the outcome of the corporate transaction.Sharpe Ratio: a risk-adjusted measure developed by William F. Sharpe,calculated by dividing the Fund’s excess return relative to the risk-free rate(defined as the rate of return of the Citi Three-Month U.S. Treasury BillIndex) by the standard deviation of the Fund’s return.Volatility: A statistical measure of the tendency of a market or security to riseor fall sharply within a period of time – usually measured by standard deviation.Alpha: The excess return of an asset not explained by systemic (market) risk.Beta: Represents the Fund’s volatility relative to the market. A statisticalmeasure of the tendency of a market or security to rise or fall sharply withina period of time, usually measured by standard deviation. Higher levels ofvolatility correspond with higher levels of risk. See also Standard Deviation.RISK CONSIDERATIONSInvesting entails risks and there can be no assurance that any strategy willachieve profits or avoid incurring losses.Persons considering an alternative investment should refer to the specificfund’s offering documentation, which will fully describe the specific risksand considerations associated with a specific alternative investment.Morgan Stanley AIP GP LP, its affiliates and their respective directors,officers, employees, members, general and limited partners, sponsors,trustees, managers, agents, advisors, representatives, heirs, successors andexecutors shall have no liability whatsoever in connection with any person’sor entity’s receipt, use of or reliance upon any information in this piece orin connection with any such information’s actual or purported accuracy,completeness, fairness, reliability or suitability.Alternative investments are speculative and include a high degree of risk.Investors could lose all, or a substantial amount of, their investment.Alternative investments are suitable only for long-term investors willingto forgo liquidity and put capital at risk for an indefinite period of time.Alternative investments are typically highly illiquid—there is no secondarymarket for private funds, and there may be restrictions on redemptions orthe assignment or other transfer of investments in private funds. 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Changing Risk In 2022, we believe the most notable trends will be the continuation . Normalized S&P 500 Index and Barra Factor Returns1 From November 26 to November 30, 2021 3-3-4 US Size . Source: Barra (US Barra Medium Term Model) 4 2022 MARKET OUTLOOK MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COVID on/COVID off, inflation or other macro .