Transcription
MEXICO: Escenario Crediticio SoberanoUn Paseo en la Montaña RusaMAURO LEOS, Regional Credit Officer, Manager - Latin America, Sovereign Risk GroupSeptiembre 2015
México Calificación SoberanaA3 EstableSEPTIEMBRE 20152
Tipo de Cambio SEPTIEMBRE 20153
Tipos de Cambio (Enero 2014 100)SEPTIEMBRE 20154
Tipos de Cambio (Enero 2014 100)SEPTIEMBRE 20155
Tipos de Cambio (Enero 2014 100)SEPTIEMBRE 20156
Impacto en el SoberanoSEPTIEMBRE 20157
Deuda Gubernamental en Moneda Extranjera(% del total, 2014)SEPTIEMBRE 20158
Spreads Bonos Soberanos: México (puntos base)SEPTIEMBRE 20159
Spreads Bonos Soberanos: Chile (puntos base)SEPTIEMBRE 201510
Spreads Bonos Soberanos: Brasil (puntos base)SEPTIEMBRE 201511
Spreads Bonos Soberanos: Malasia (puntos base)SEPTIEMBRE 201512
Spreads Bonos Soberanos: Polonia (puntos base)SEPTIEMBRE 201513
Impacto en InflaciónSEPTIEMBRE 201514
Inflación Subyacente (tasa anual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201515
Expectativas Inflacionarias (tasa anual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201516
Crecimiento EconómicoSEPTIEMBRE 201517
Sincronización de Actividad Económica: México - EE. UU.(PIB tasa anual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201518
Correlación de Actividad Económica: LATAM vs EE. UU.(Período enezuela0.31Argentina0.30Peru0.19America Latina0.51SEPTIEMBRE 201519
La Historia “Nueva”SEPTIEMBRE 201520
Indicador de Actividad Económica (tasa anual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201521
Indicador de Actividad Económica (tasa anual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201522
Indicador de Actividad Económica (tasa anual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201523
Indicador de Actividad Económica (tasa anual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201524
Indicador de Actividad Económica (tasa anual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201525
Crecimiento y ConfianzaSEPTIEMBRE 201526
Confianza del Consumidor(Enero 2012 100)SEPTIEMBRE 201527
Confianza del Consumidor(Enero 2012 100)SEPTIEMBRE 201528
Confianza Empresarial(Enero 2012 100)SEPTIEMBRE 201529
Confianza Empresarial(Enero 2012 100)SEPTIEMBRE 201530
Perspectivas de CrecimientoSEPTIEMBRE 201531
Expectativa de Crecimiento del PIB para 2015Encuesta Banco de México (tasa annual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201532
Expectativa de Crecimiento del PIB para 2015 y 2016Encuesta Banco de México (tasa annual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201533
Ciclos y TendenciaSEPTIEMBRE 201534
Ciclos Económicos y Crecimiento de Tendencia(PIB tasa anual %)SEPTIEMBRE 201535
Crecimiento Económico: Diferencia respecto TendenciaSEPTIEMBRE 201536
Precio del Petróleo ( US dpb)SEPTIEMBRE 201537
Perspectivas FiscalesSEPTIEMBRE 201538
Deuda del Gobierno Federal (% del PIB)SEPTIEMBRE 201539
Deuda de Gobierno (% del PIB, Promedio 2013-15)SEPTIEMBRE 201540
Producción de Petróleo (miles de barriles diarios)SEPTIEMBRE 201541
Ingresos Petroleros del Gobierno Federal(% del total)SEPTIEMBRE 201542
Reforma Tributaria e Ingresos GubernamentalesCrecimiento RealEnero – Julio 2015Gobierno Federal18.1%No - o TributariosPetroleros51.4%-48.5%SEPTIEMBRE 201543
Perspectiva Fiscal Objetivo: Estabilizar/reducir Razon Deuda/ PIBPronunciamientos/mensajes de las autoridades “correctos”De la Reforma de Ingresos (tributaria) a la Reforma del Gasto Presupuesto Base Cero ?Presupuesto 2016 PrioridadesSEPTIEMBRE 201544
Panorama 2015-16 Se vienen tiempos “dificiles”2015 y 2016 anios mas complicados de lo pensadoPeriodo de Ajuste; adecuacion de politicas/estrategiasPost-2016 ?2015-16: Test PeriodSEPTIEMBRE 201545
Retos y Riesgos Crecimiento de Mediano Plazo (tendencia) Rango Moody’s: 3% - 4% Finales del sexenio: 2017-18 PEMEX Producción; Capex; apalancamiento Que puede llevar a cambios en calificación/perspectiva? Mas que nivel Tendencia Deuda / PIBNo Cambio en Crecimiento Tendencial 2.5%Capacidad/habilidad para ajustar; ambiente políticoSEPTIEMBRE 201546
México Calificación SoberanaA3EstableSEPTIEMBRE 201547
2015 Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.CREDIT RATINGS ARE MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC.'S (“MIS”) CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDITCOMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MIS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIALOBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK,INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT ORHISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS ARE NOT RECOMMENDATIONS TOPURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULARINVESTOR. MIS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATIONOF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BECOPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FORSUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUTMOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibilityof human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. Except as expressly statedotherwise, MOODY’S has not verified, audited or validated independently any information received in the rating process, nor will it do so. Under no circumstances shall MOODY’Shave any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstanceor contingency within or outside the control of MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis,interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever(including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY’S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information.The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as,statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. Each user of the information contained herein must make its own studyand evaluation of each security it may consider purchasing, holding or selling. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS,MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S INANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds,debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services renderedby it fees ranging from 1,500 to approximately 2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and rating processes.Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reportedto the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading “Shareholder Relations — Corporate Governance — Directorand Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657, which holds Australian Financial ServicesLicense no. 336969. This document is intended to be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to accessthis document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor theentity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.SEPTIEMBRE 201548
Expectativa de Crecimiento del PIB para 2015 y 2016 Encuesta Banco de México (tasa annual %) SEPTIEMBRE 2015 34 Ciclos y Tendencia. SEPTIEMBRE 2015 35 Ciclos Económicos y Crecimiento de Tendencia (PIB tasa anual %) SEPTIEMBRE 2015 36 Crecimiento Eco
