The New Paradigm For Emerging Economies: Blockchain

Transcription

The New Paradigm forEmerging Economies:Blockchain

Table of ContentAuthor’s Note .3Abstract.4Introduction.5Fundamentals and Challenges of Transformational Economies.6Agricultural Industry . 8Infrastructure, Urban, and Technological Development Industry . 10Governance, Finance, and Commerce Industry . 14Real Estate and Housing Industry . 18Education and Workforce Industry. 20Blockchain’s Utilization. 24Agricultural Industry . 24Infrastructure, Urban, and Technological Development Industry . 24Blockchain in the Context of Transformational Economies.24Governance, Finance, and Commerce Industry . 25Education and Workforce Industry . 26Conclusion.27References.28

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainAuthor’s NoteSheikh Mohammed Irfan,Managing Partner(Research and Strategy), Bloccelerate VC.Special thanks to:Skyler Blacker,Research Associate, Bloccelerate VC;And all other team members at Bloccelerate VC.Correspondence concerning this article may be directed toinfo@blocclerate.vc or research@bloccelerate.vc3

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainAbstractEmerging economies are considered one of the most globally beneficial businessopportunities in the next 10-15 years. However, persistent issues within theseeconomies have kept them from rising to their potential. The aim of this paperis to create a perspective understanding of these challenges and address somepotential solutions available through the utilization of blockchain. The paper reliesheavily on venture capital fund knowledge in identifying the potential solutions tobe capitalized on and where blockchain may best be strategically implemented tounlock said potential icles/investing/emerging-market-investments/4

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainIntroductionIt has been a whirlwind journey for both emerging economies and the “technologyhype” that captured global attention. Most people have seen “Emerging Economy” or“Blockchain” thrown into an article or talked about in an academic conversation butrarely have they been thought about together. However, through years of researchingthe utilization of blockchain in markets and industries of massive potential, I have cometo the conclusion that the critical factor lies in both macro and micro-level understandingof both terms. Although many see the potential implications of blockchain in emergingeconomies, more work must be done to determine exactly where the technologyshould be implemented to yield the most promising benefits. The sheer combinationsof size of the market, necessity to change and create opportunities, and lack of existinginfrastructures, is a system architect's paradise as they can create from the ground upand use blockchain technology to turn any emerging economy into a transformationalone. Blockchain technology has the ability to improve efficiency, decrease cost, andempower millions of people currently out of the developed ecosystem. Through my yearsof work in these markets and my upbringing in the emerging economy (i.e. Bangladesh),I have encountered challenges that need both immediate and long-term resolutions.Hence, it has been a lifelong motivation to perceive and incite change through the toolkit I am literate in, technology. There is no technology more equipped to handle theproblems of emerging economies than blockchain.5

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainFundamentals and Challengesof Transformational Economies:Latest estimates suggest the Global Economy GDP being a staggering 80 trillion US dollarsby the end of 2017.Figure 1. Percentage and amount distributions of global GDP by continent and nation (Raul, 2018).6

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainHowever, the global economy is dominatedby those that are already established. Despitebusiness cycles around the world, it is noteasy to beat out some of those establishedeconomies. Of the top 20 economies from1980, 17 are still ranked among the top 20today, meaning only three new entrantsmanaged to carve out their own portionsof the global economy. That statistic alonesuggests that established economies formthe engine of growth for the global economy.In contrast, the countries with the highestpercentage of global population are stillunable to capture most of the world’s marketshare. By default, developing countries whichcomprise 35% of the global population shouldbe able to capture at least that exact amountin the worldwide market. However, that is yetto be the case, and the following factors arehighlighted as the reasons why:1. Corruption: Lack of Trust and Transparency1. Lack of Infrastructures1. Inability to Activate or Retain MassiveHuman Capital1. Failure to Establish Businesses thatAddress Local and Global MarketsTruth be told, these are not the only problems;however, in a macroeconomic outlook, theseare the problems that are in immediate needof addressing to unlock the true potentialof these economies. In fact, according to areport published by S&P Global, “Aggregateemerging market consumption will expandthat of advanced economies, and emergingmarkets will account for an increased sharingof global consumption” (Tanchua & Shand,2016).To further stress the prominence of theseeconomies, several global indexes havetermed them in many exciting and promisingblocs such as BRIC and N-11. Although theperceived determinants have been differentin various opinion polls. According to a reportpublished by McKinsey, they state that “Theshift in economic power from the West tothe East and South is well underway. Butnot all boats will be lifted by this rising tide.Organizations in growth economies will needto embrace technology and the transition toa service economy if they hope to be globallycompetitive” (Mobasheri, 2017). Althoughembracing technology is an essential factor,that these economies need to jump to theservice economy to be globally competitiveis a questionable statement. Agriculturehas been the bread and butter for mostemerging economies and the agriculturalsector’s developments are the reason leadingeconomies are in their current position.Furthermore, global food demand and securityissues that are currently being faced inaddition to ones predicted in the long-run dueto population growth would be made moresevere by the loss of smallholding ownersto the service economy. The InternationalFund for Agricultural Development considerssmallholding, which forms the bedrock ofagriculture sectors in emerging economies,as part of the solution for global food security(Maindola, 2016).Therefore, it seems irresponsible to discard alltraditional industries to facilitate the servicesector without addressing the preexistingopportunities that lie within these emergingeconomies. The duality of co-existence is7

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: Blockchainfar better for the organic development ofthe ecosystem. According to economists,agriculture was the pillar of the industrialrevolution, and in today’s perspective,effective and innovative agriculture has thepotential to be the pillar of the new digitalrevolution.Prior to deciding where blockchain maybe best utilized to improve an emergingeconomy, it is important to recognize theproblems that exist across each industry andthe opportunities they possess.Agricultural Industry:Emerging economies consist of more nearly2.23 million square kilometers of land, ofwhich approximately 20.34% is arable.These economies rely heavily on theiragricultural industries for stimulation, justas the rest of the world relies on them forfood security. This dependency has led toemerging economies across the board havinghigher crop and food production indexesthan established ones. With that being said,some may find it surprising to know thatdespite these numbers, emerging economiesactually perform lower than their establishedcounterparts in terms of agricultural growth;an issue with growth attributed to a varietyof issues (Emerging Markets: Group Statistics,n.d.).Consider the case of agriculturalsustainability; contemporary agriculture hasbeen characterized by increasing crop yieldthrough the utilization of synthetic fertilizersand pesticides. However, this process hasdamaged the soil and natural ecosystem,thus hindering the long-term developmentof crops. Today, nearly 40% of the world’sagricultural land has degraded due to eitherenvironmental changes or soil problemscaused by unsustainable agriculture ormismanagement (Watts, 2017). Emergingeconomies are not only shown to displayhigher levels of man-made environmentalissues such as CO2 emissions but they alsosuffer more at the hands of natural disastersas shown by their above-average disasterrelated deaths and below-average relief fundstatistics (Emerging Markets: Group Statistics,n.d.). As the agricultural industry movestowards a more sustainable crop productionmodel, it is critical for farmers to possess data,information, and recurring feedback on theirassets. In most emerging economies, farmersare ill-equipped with any such resources dueto lack of infrastructure, cost of informationand updates, and little access to knowledge.In addition to sustainability, some otherproblems plaguing the agricultural industryare: Agricultural Finance (Banking, Insurance,Agricultural Commodities) Agricultural Management (Value Chain,Adulterations) Agricultural Trends (Organic Food,Consumer Demand) Agricultural Trade (Global Trade,Transportation, Food Pricing) Agricultural Security (Food Security,Growing Population, Lack of Land) Agricultural Livelihood (Rural Lifestyle vs.Urban Lifestyle)8

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainFigure 2. Percentage of each nation’s population employed in the agricultural sector in 2017 (Roser, 2013).Globally, agriculture accounts for almostone billion in global employment and is thelargest employer of women in developingnations. Additionally, seven of the ten largestagricultural producers and exporters areconsidered to be emerging economies andthe agricultural sector constitutes a largeportion of each of them. Such statistics makeit imperative to solve the issues facing theagricultural industry and fully benefit from theemerging economies that have made it theirprevalent industry (Employment in Agriculture,2019). When attempting to solve theseproblems, one must consider the challengesfaced by farmers including extortion and lackof access to financial support, end consumers,quality materials, and storing facilities.These challenges consistently underminethe potential of the industry in emergingeconomies. If the problems facing the industryare solved or even mitigated, it could resultin a decrease in the cost of production andhigher consumption by end consumers dueto affordability. Furthermore, farmers withliquidity would be able to focus more onhigher output of different crops, thus enablingthem to address local and global markets.Consider the case of Bangladesh, wherethe agriculture sector accounts for 19.6% ofnational GDP and employs approximately63% of the population (Bangladesh-9

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainAgriculture, 2019). In 2017, Bangladeshproduced nearly three billion US dollarsin exports from the agricultural industrymainly in cotton and sugar (Faruque, 2018).According to the World Bank report, thisoutlook could be at least doubled withthe appropriate exploration of certainopportunities (The World Bank, 2016).Infrastructure, Urban, andTechnological Development Industry:The transportation sector is a major factorin the long-term development of emergingeconomies and in this case, it fundamentallyrestricts the efficient flow of people,commodities, and services. According to areport published by Credit Suisse, nearly46% of roads are unpaved in emerging Asiancountries (Zimmermann, 2018). Emergingeconomies fall far behind their establishedcounterparts in airports per capita, railroadsper capita, and roadways per kilometer.However, their amount of highways percapita is far above-average and could be avaluable tool if not for their recurring issues(Emerging Economies: Group Statistics, n.d.).Some such issues have large effects on theeconomy as a whole; in Dhaka, the capital cityof Bangladesh, approximately 3.8 million laborhours are lost daily due to traffic; an estimated4.3 billion US dollars worth of productivity(Correspondent, 2018).Issues with road corruption, safety, andsecurity have halted potential developmentin Bangladesh and many other developingAsian economies. A multitude of emergingnations struggle with high crime rates anda poor policing force per capita ratio in largeurban areas (Emerging Economies: GroupStatistics, n.d.). The lack of policing and highrates of crime in some emerging economiesare often also accompanied by corruptionfrom law enforcement to politics. When agovernment official is more interested in theirown self-benefit than the overall success oftheir communities, it can lead to repeatedinvestments into projects that sum to muchhigher than they should. Although publiclyavailable data did not provide total roadconstruction expenditures for the country,one could reasonably estimate billions ofsunk-costs over the past 20 years. In fact,according to a Bangladeshi report publishedby “The Daily Star”, on-average it costs overseven million US dollars per kilometer more toconstruct a four-lane highway in Bangladeshas compared to India or China due to lackof competitive bidding, overrun time, etc(Correspondent, 2017).Solving the roadway and other similarinfrastructure issues will ultimately comedown to the necessity for clear informationand mechanisms to monitor progress.These necessities present opportunitiesfor technology such as blockchain to playa key role in the development process ofemerging economies. After implementation,blockchain will allow emerging economiesand their developing cities to Developingcities are an obvious component in mostemerging economies. The following threevisuals represent the potential markets andchallenges in such cities.10

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainThese are the world’s fastest growing megacitiesAnnual rate of change between 2010-2015Guangzhou, Guangdong, China5.2%Beijing, China4.6%Kinshasa,DRC4.2%Lagos, Nigeria3.9%Dhaka, Bangladesh3.6%Shangai, China3.4%Chongqing, China3.4%Tianjin, China3.4%Karachi, Pakistan3.3%Delhi, India3.2%Source: UN World Urbanization ProspectsFigure 3. The annual rates of change for the top ten fastest growing cities in the world (Myers, 2016).Middleweight cities in emerging markets are poised to delivernearly 40 percent of global growth by 2025, more than the entiredeveloped world and emerging market megacities combined1Developed economicsContribution to GDO and GDP growth by type of city %Emerging market small cities and rural areasGDP, 2007Emerging market megacitiesEmerging market middleweight citiesGDP growth, 2007-252100% 54.9 Trillion100% 55.5 Small8371013LargeMidsized1. Megacities are defined as metropolitan areas with ten million or more inhabitants. Middleweights are cities with populationsof between 150,000 and ten million inhabitants.2. Real exchange rate(RER) for 2007 is the market exchange rate. RER for 2025 was predicted from differences in the per capitaGDP growth rates of countries relative to the United States.SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute Cityscope1.0Figure 4. The percent contributions of each type of city to global GDP and global GDP growth between 2007 and 2025(McKinsey Global Institute, 2011). Emerging market middleweight cities are poised to deliver nearly 40% of global growth by2025, more than the entire developed world and emerging market megacities combined.11

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainTop cities by growth in given market, 2010-25Emerging regionDeveloped regionElderlyhigher-incomeconsumers1Rank (aged65 )Youngentry-levelconsumers2(aged 14 or under)Consumerspending onlaundrycare products3Demand forcommercial floorspace4Municipal waterdemand1ShanghaiLagosSão PauloNew YorkMumbai2BeijingDar es SalaamBeijingBeijingDelhi3TokyoDhakaRio de Los AngelesGuangzhou5MumbaiKhartoumMexico CityTokyoBeijing6São PauloGhaziabadMoscowWashington,DCBuenos obiIstanbulSao jingBaghdadJohannesburgChicagoIstanbul1. With household income 20,000 at purchasing-power parity.2. With household income of 7,500- 20,000 at purchasing-power parity.3. Based on city-level market-demand-growth model.4. Includes replacement floor space.Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysisFigure 5. The top ten cities for each growth category between 2010 and 2025 (McKinsey Global Institute, 2011).Looking at the visuals, one can’t help but thinkabout some of the issues currently plaguingthe cities listed: the cost of affordable living,the essential supplies and infrastructure foraccommodating a large number of people,and the safety and sustainability of the citiesthemselves.trillion more per year on physical capital—everything from office towers to new portfacilities—than they do today. In buildingconstruction, the new floor space required willbe equivalent to 85 percent of today's entireresidential and commercial building stock”(Dobbs; Remes; & Schaer, 2012).The three problems above are only asnapshot of the list that needs to be resolvedprior to economic progress. According to areport published by McKinsey, “By 2025, citiesworldwide will need to spend at least 10That being said, individuals may be ableto gain early-mover benefits by adoptingstrategic approaches now: whether thatbe developing better understandings ofdemographic and income trends or learning12

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: Blockchainthe market dynamics of specific productsin target cities. Information such as howemerging economies have a significantlylower pre-adolescence percentage of theirpopulation and a higher elderly (65 and up)percentage than the average may be criticalfor social planning. Planning such as creatingassisted living projects to care for an agingpopulation or investing in ways to decreaseinfant mortality and the number of stillbirths(Emerging Economies: Group Statistics, n.d.)Many cities also lack proper safetyregulations; Dhaka, for instance, recentlysuffered a series of deadly accidents inbusiness facilities that have claimed manylives (Nadi, 2019). As incidents like those tendto repeat, one must think about the measuresthat are necessary to avoid future dangers,which will be far more complicated due to theincrease in population and growth of the city.Technology will play a critical role intransforming these cities into “Smart Cities,”but first proper application and developmentprocesses must be established. In previouscases, technology is developed by theestablished economies and then presentedto the emerging ones as a market. The issuewith that solution is that most emergingcountries are presented with unique problemsassociated with their cultures, customs,demographics, terrain, etc. Therefore, it is farmore critical to develop localized technologyto address the issues that exist within thespecific community.In fact, in the paper “Why is Africa Poor?” theauthors, state “non-adoption of apparentlyhighly productive technologies such aswheeled carts or new methods of ploughingwere not appropriate to the African contextand was particularly driven by perversecauses of facilitating slave trade or creatingdependency of the locals to an already knownand efficient process” (Acemoglu & Robinson,2010). Such development inhibitors seem toprovide young companies within emergingeconomies an environment in which theyare forced to be content with their localtechnological capabilities. They lack theresearch, resources, and infrastructure tosatisfy their technological needs as well asface the possibility that any development hasthe potential to disrupt the preexisting localeconomy (Yusuf, 2017). Opportunity lies inthe readiness for and embracement of thesetechnologies through customization.In summary, the critical takeaways foremerging economies in technology are:1. Raise knowledge, awareness, andreadiness1. Harness new technologies to buildlocalized capabilities1. Formulate strategies to create valueadded services for existing vendors toaddress local markets (such as overcominglanguage barriers and gaining marketinsights among others)13

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainGovernance, Finance, andCommerce Industry:Governance is subject to various challenges inthe economic development process; whetherthey be traditional or unexpected. Emergingeconomies’ governments must find solutionsto the same problems all governments must:protecting its citizens being one of them.Fatalities due to terrorism acts, terroristorganizations active, and political violenceare all untamed in emerging economies whencompared to some of the more establishedones. Additionally, emerging economies lackthe forces to solve these issues internally;despite having a significantly larger portion oftheir populations fit for military service, theyare below average on military personnel percapita. It has already been mentioned howother internal policing forces are subject tobribes and corruption; this, combined with aninadequate national military makes severallarge-scale operations impossible (EmergingEconomies: Group Statistics, n.d.). Someissues governments face are less-ordinary,one example being when the FinancialPolicy Council explicitly listed an “Open andTransparent PPP Bid Process” as part ofthe solution to tackle existing challenges inemerging markets (Kowlessar, 2018).The final objectives of e-governance, ascited by the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme led by Information andCommunications Technology innovationsare: transparency, efficiency, effectiveness,accountability, justice, and reliability andparticipatory democracy (Alam, 2012).This sort of e-governance is expensiveand challenging to establish due to factorssuch as the majority of the citizens in someemerging economies not having access to theinternet and the lack of essential hardwaresuch as connection infrastructures, advancedservers, and security systems to protectpublic data and information (Shil, 2016). Thecost of creating a functioning e-governancein a developing city could be upwards ofone billion US dollars, no small fee for aneconomy with a plethora of other problemsand financial stresses (Zambrano & Seward,2013). The reality of these situations promptthe questions of if and how an emergingeconomy would be able to obtain ane-governance while also minimizing costs?Financial services, unlike some of theaforementioned areas, are an area whereemerging economies believe presentsprospects. As of now, emerging economiesare looking at various opportunities foreconomic growth through remittance,addressing the unbanked and underbankedmarkets, and reducing cost for financial andcashless services.Bangladesh stands as the 9th highestremittance recipient country in the world at15.9 billion US dollars which accounts fornearly 4.58% of its GDP (Ahmed K.A., 2018;The World Bank, 2018). The actual figure isreported much higher but does not appear soin the statistic due to the country’s reliance oninformal systems such as “Hundi”. Such intrasocial methods of transmitting remittancehave been estimated to handle approximately24.9% of total remittance currently14

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: Blockchainaccumulated with more yet unaccounted for(Hussain, 2014).It is of utmost importance to bring theseinformal remittances to a formal system.Large portions of these remittances are usedby family members, for property and landacquisitions, and for education and medicalservices. Whenever a state imposes capitalcontrols preventing the free movement offunds, markets such as the “Hundi” areestablished. Furthermore, the central bankin its continuous efforts to enforce foreignexchange regulations becomes increasinglyintrusive in trying to limit the “Hundi” market.Foreign exchange may be entirely outsideof Bandladeshi financial institutions’ sphereof influence; however, the “Hundi” marketwill actively adjust their exchange ratesto divert remittances enough to satisfydemands (Cookson, 2018). If demandsincrease, a higher proportion of remittanceswill be redirected to the “Hundi” marketsand if they decrease the opposite will occur.Creating programs such as PSI (Pre-ShipmentInvoicing) to reduce the amount of underinvoicing, improve traceability, provideeducation services, and reduce the cost ofcross-border payments are some examples ofmeasures being taken benefit fully off of theremittance market. Matt Bakker beautifullysummarizes what the remittance marketmeans for emerging economies in his book,“Migrating into Financial Markets”, in summaryhis thoughts are:critical source of financial aid than officialdevelopment assistance (ODA). For example,in 2012, Africa received 60 billion USdollars in total remittances whereas theyonly received 44.6 billion in ODA. Similarly,remittances have also reached higher levelsthan private debt and portfolio equity,and average almost 60% of foreign directinvestments in developing countries.b. Remittances have not only proven to behigher as other sources of financial inflows,but they are also seen as more resilient toexternal economic shocks and are countercyclical in nature. Indeed, while a foreigngovernment is likely to cut ODA when its owneconomic growth slows, family members areless likely to do so. Similarly, family membersare more likely than foreign investors toinvest more when a developing country facesdifficulties (Bakker, 2015).The other major prospect in the financialindustry is the unbanked and underbankedmarket. As shown in the visual below,approximately 1.7 billion adults remainunbanked, of which adults in emergingmarkets account for a large share.a. In some of the frontier “least developed”countries, remittances are now a more15

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainFigure 6. The amount distribution of adults living unbanked in the world(Demirguc-Kunt, Klapper, Singer, Ansar, & Hess, 2017).Bangladeshi mobile financial service usehas grown approximately 120% every yearsince 2011 and although strides have beenmade in Bangladesh through MPS (MobileFinancial Services) such as bKash, wherean estimate shows 22% of the populationis using it; it remains as mostly domesticperson-to-person transfers. According to onestudy, 85% of Bangladeshi mobile moneyusers don't have a bKash account and only20% have a bank account, which leaves astaggering 80% as unbanked and only 3% ofthe population with a mobile account. Withthe majority of transactions being domestictransfers and payments, rural Bangladeshiare not interested in saving money. They wantto be able to send money via mobile servicesto their families so that they can avoid loansand thus safeguard their families (Bryzek,n.d.).Further showing that sentiment holds trueacross developing economies, India hasshown that by lowering bank transactioncosts, hundreds of millions who werepreviously unbanked created accounts. In2011, 65% of India was unbanked; now,with the introduction of the JDY (PrimeMinister's People Wealth Scheme) andsimilar programs, that has fallen to 47%.Of the accounts opened in that time frame,60% were in rural areas and they have anaccumulated deposit of approximately 10billion US dollars.16

The New Paradigm for Emerging Economies: BlockchainFigure 7. The total number of bank accounts in India as well as what portion of them are positive-balanceand their distribution between rural and urban areas (Asktrakhan, 2018).When considering financial inclusion, anemerging economy should contemplatemaking the following changes:1. Closing the small business credit gap ataverage lending spreads and conservativeestimates of fee-based services.2. Including unbanked adults in the formalfinancial system and raising their financialservices spending levels. Social dividendsBanks at the forefront of financial inclusionfor low-income consumers will be wellpositioned to reap both economic andgoodwill value in return. It is important tonote that 70% of microenterpri

Globally, agriculture accounts for almost one billion in global employment and is the largest employer of women in developing nations. Additionally, seven of the ten largest agricultural producers and exporters are considered to be emerging economies and the agricultural sector constitutes a large portion of each of them. Such statistics make