Major Revenue Update & General Fund Forecast

Transcription

FY 2022/23Budget DevelopmentMajor Revenue Update &General Fund ForecastSeminole County FloridaMarch 8, 2022FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION1SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Property Appraiser, DavidJohnson Property Valuations Ad Valorem Revenues Other Major Revenues Sales TaxesUtility TaxCommunication Service TaxGas Taxes General Fund Forecast Budget Development TimelineFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION2SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

FY 2022/23 Budget WorksessionProperty Valuation UpdateMarch 8th, 2022FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION3SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Seminole County at a Glance 178,180 real estate parcels 14,600 TPP accounts 42,239 apartment units Total Market Value – 2021 56.9 Billion Taxable Value – 2021 40.1 BillionFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION4SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Date of AssessmentWhy isJanuary 1Important?FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION5SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Commercial vs ResidentialTotal Value of Tax Roll:65% Residential35% Commercial2020 Sales VolumeResidential: 3.1 billionCommercial: 425 million2021 Sales VolumeResidential: 4.3 billionCommercial: 1.3 billionFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION6SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Value of Permits forNew Construction2019- 840 Million2020- 526 Million2021- 1 Billion2022- 1.42 BillionTotal New Construction(Residential & Commercial)FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION7SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Detached Single Family HomesMedian Sales Price ofNEWSingle Family HomesSale YearMedian SalePrice% Change2021 391,800-5.05%FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION8SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Detached Single Family HomesMedian Sales Price ofEXISTINGSingle Family HomesSale Year% Change2017Median SalePrice 259,0002018 273,0005.4%2019 296,0008.4%2020 314,2506.2%2021 359,00014.24%FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION4.4%9SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

TownhomesMedian Sales Price ofNEWTownhomesSale YearMedian SalePrice% Change2021 346,35010.74%FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION10SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

TownhomesMedian Sales Price ofEXISTINGTownhomesSale Year% Change2017Median SalePrice 182,0002018 215,00018.1%2019 213,000-0.9%2020 225,9006.1%2021 260,00015.10%FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION9.6%11SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Three-year History InventoryFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION12SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Interest RatesYEARRATEDecember 20173.97%December 20184.38%December 20193.66%December 20202.70%December 20213.07%March 1 20223.85%FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION13SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Seminole County Population2030 Projection: 526,400Population by CityAltamonte Springs44,947Casselberry29,778Lake inter Springs37,639Unincorporated220,399Age Distribution0-1718-2425-5455-6465 & up21.5%8.8%42.3%12.9%14.4%Median Age: 39.1Median Income: 60,739FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION14SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Square Mileage of:Seminole- 345Orange- 948Lake- 1,157Osceola- 1,506FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION15SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Challenge for Seminole CountySupply & DemandFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION16SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Residential Trends Seminole County is critically underhoused Low inventory and intense demand Relatively low interest rates Strong renters’ market 35% of housing units are non-homesteaded in Seminole County Strong Seller’s real estate marketFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION17SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

New Single Family ResidencesNew SFR152313271406134695320172018201920202021New SFRFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION18SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Apartments3,239 new units going on this yearFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION19SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

What Makes UpClass A Apartments? Average assessed value 275,000 - 325,000 Average size of a complex275-300 units Average rent Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 BedroomFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION 1,700 per month 1,750 per month 2,200 per month 2,600 per month20SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

2022 Residential Market 158,652 parcels 103,008 parcelshave homesteadexemption 28.4 BillionTaxable ValueFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION21SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

2022 Commercial Market 4,642 parcels 57 million square ft. 10 Billion Taxable ValueFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION22SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

2022 Industrial Market 1,797 parcels 29.7 million square ft. 1.8 Billion Taxable ValueFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION23SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Save Our HomesValue of Save Our Homes Savings2019: 5.8 Billion2020: 6.1 Billion2021: 7.1 Billion2022: 9.8 Billion *PreliminaryAverage SOH Cap per Home2018: 49,0002019: 57,0002020: 60,0002021: 69,6002022: 95,100FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION24YearSOH E COUNTY FLORIDA

10% Cap, Non-HomesteadedPropertiesValue of the 10% Cap2018: 1.1 Billion2019: 1.3 Billion2020: 1.2 Billion2021: 1.3 Billion2022: 1.76 BillionFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION25SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Additional Homestead PropertyTax Exemption for Specified CriticalPublic Services Workforce Will appear on November22 ballot Must be approved by 60%of voters Will provide anadditional 50,000exemptionFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION26SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Who will benefit? Classroom teachersLaw EnforcementFirefightersChild Welfare ProfessionalsService membersEFFECTIVE 1/1/2023FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION27SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

What will be the impact toSeminole County? General Fund 750,000- 800,000 Fire Fund 380,000- 400,000FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION28SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Taxable Value Projection 2022 Value Projection: 10 - 11% increase over 2021 4.0 - 4.1 billion increase in taxable valueFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION29SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Taxable Value 2022 Estimate2021Final Taxable2022Taxable Estimate40 Billion44-44.1 BillionFire28.5 Billion31.35-31.6 BillionRoad20 Billion22-22.2 BillionGeneralFundFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION30SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Taxable Value History & ProjectionsProjectionsFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION31YEAR% CHANGE202210-11%20236%20246%SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Value of a Mil(Calculated at 96%)YearValue of 1 Mil- General Fund2017 29.3 Million2018 31.7 Million2019 34.3 Million2020 36.5 Million2021 38.5 Million2022 42.3 Million*2023 44.8 Million*2024 47.5 Million**ProjectionsFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION32SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Value of a Mil(Calculated at 96%)YearValue of 1 Mil- Fire Fund2017 21.1 Million2018 22.7 Million2019 24.5 Million2020 26.0 Million2021 27.3 Million2022 28.8 Million*2023 30.4 Million*2024 33.8 Million**ProjectionsFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION33SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Value of a Mil(Calculated at 96%)YearValue of 1 Mil- Road2017 15.0 Million2018 15.9 Million2019 17.2 Million2020 18.3 Million2021 19.2 Million2022 20.2 Million*2023 21.3 Million*2024 24.7 Million**ProjectionsFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION34SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Millage RatesSeminole CountyLowest Millage Rate inCentral FloridaFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION35SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Challenges for Seminole CountyMoving ForwardMICROAttainable HousingSupply & DemandFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION36SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Challenges for Seminole CountyMoving ForwardMACRO Global ConflictsInflationInterest RatesSupply Chain IssuesFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION37SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Questions?FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION38SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

HALF CENTSALES TAXFY23 BUDGET 29.2MGENERAL FUNDFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION39SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

STATESHAREDREVENUESFY23 BUDGET 12.2MGENERAL FUNDFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION40SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

UTILITYTAXESFY23 BUDGET 8.4MGENERAL FUNDFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION41SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

COMMUNICATIONSERVICES TAXFY23 BUDGET 5.2MGENERAL FUNDFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION42SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

GASTAXESFY23 BUDGET 15.7MTRANSPORTATION TRUSTFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION43SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

INFRASTRUCTURESALES TAXFY23 BUDGET 49.5MEXPIRES 12/31/243RD GEN SALES TAX FUNDFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION44SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

GENERAL FUND FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS Personnel Costs FY22: 3% Midyear Salary Adjustment FY23: 3% Across the Board; 3% Merit FY23: 2.75M in new position requests (43 FTE’s Requested) 15 Minimum Wage Inflation Five Points Project Current Phase 5M Debt Svcs Future Phases 10M to 11M Debt Svcs Sunrail ( 14M per year)FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION45SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION46SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION47SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Including 5-PointsFuture PhasesFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION48SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Including 5-PointsFuture PhasesFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION49SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

Budget Development Department Budgets SubmittedCounty Manager WorksessionsConstitutional Budgets DueBCC WorksessionsTRIM Adoption (BCC Meeting)1st Public Hearing2nd Public HearingFY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION50MarchApril to MayMay 1st5/17 - 6/21 – 7/19July 26thSept 14thSept 27thSEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA

FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION 14 SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA. Square Mileage of: Seminole- 345 Orange- 948 Lake- 1,157 Osceola- 1,506 FY 2022/23 MAJOR REVENUE WORKSESSION 15 SEMINOLE COUNTY FLORIDA. Challenge for Seminole County Supply & Demand