WIXLIB

Submitted toSouthern California Edison Company8631 Rush Street, 2nd FloorRosemead, CA 91770Submitted byWest Hill Energy & Computing, Inc.23 Williamstown RoadChelsea, VT 05038In Association withRidge and AssociatesThe Energy Center of WisconsinWirtshafter Associates&Business Economic Research and AnalysisJune 17, 2005

Table of ContentsLIEE PY2002 Impact EvaluationTable of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 1E.1Objectives and Approach . 1E.2Overview of Methods. 1E.3Energy Education Literature Review . 2E.4Summary of Results. 2E.4.1Refrigerators . 5E.4.2Lighting . 5E.4.3Cooling. 5E.4.4Heating Systems . 6E.4.5Attic Insulation. 6E.4.6Other Space Heating Measures . 6E.4.7Water Heating Conservation Measures. 7E.4.8Energy Education. 71INTRODUCTION. 81.1Overview . 81.2Approach to the 2002 Impact Evaluation. 91.3Organization of the Report . 102PROGRAM DESCRIPTION. 122.1Overview . 122.2Income Eligibility . 122.3Program Measures. 122.4Other Services Provided by the LIEE. 133ENERGY EDUCATION LITERATURE REVIEW. 163.1Overview . 163.2Scope of Literature Review . 17Final ReportiWest Hill Energy and Computing

Table of ContentsLIEE PY2002 Impact EvaluationTable of Contents (Continued)3.3Findings. 173.3.1Penelec field test by the Alliance to Save Energy . 183.3.2Niagra Mohawk Persistence Study . 183.3.3Michigan Study . 193.3.4Ohio Study. 193.3.5Cinergy Study. 193.4Methodological Issues. 203.4.1Equivalence of groups. 203.4.2Sample size and statistical resolution . ers”. 233.4.4Weather normalization. 233.5Conclusions and Recommendations. 243.6References. 2544.1DATA COLLECTION AND ISSUES. 27Data Collection Process . 284.2Data Issues . 284.2.1Scope of data collected . 284.2.2Program Data Collection Procedures . 294.2.3Heating Fuel Types . 294.2.4Pre-installation conditions for selected equipment . 304.2.5Multifamily Buildings and Mobile Home Parks . 314.2.6Other Data Inconsistencies. 314.35Compliance with CPUC Decision 03-10-041 . 32APPROACHES TO LIEE IMPACT EVALUATION . 335.1Best Practices. 335.2Selecting the Unit of Measure . 345.3Selecting the Right Impact Model . 355.4Selecting the Right Billing Analysis. 355.5Model Specification. 365.6Engineering and Metering Methods. 39Final ReportiiWest Hill Energy and Computing

Table of ContentsLIEE PY2002 Impact EvaluationTable of Contents (Continued)5.76References (Chapters 5 & 6) . 39METHODS AND ANALYSIS . 426.1Sampling Plan and Weights . 426.2Simple Pre/Post Modeling . 426.3Modeling Approach: Regression . 436.3.1General Form. 436.3.2Dependent Variable . 446.3.3Independent Variables . 446.3.4Confidence Intervals . 456.3.5Model Diagnostics . 466.4Specification of the Regression Model . 476.4.1Identifying Fuel Types for Space and Water Heating. 486.4.2Model Variables. 496.5Results of Diagnostics . 596.5.1Outliers . 596.5.2Collinearity . 606.5.3Autocorrelation . 606.5.4Comparison of Bootstrap and Regression Results. 616.6Alternative Models. 626.7Simple Pre/Post Analysis: Selection of the Comparison Group . 636.8Premises v Accounts . 646.9Comparison to Previous Evaluations . 646.9.1Regression Models . 656.9.2Fuel Types. 666.9.3Precision . 666.107References. 66RESULTS . 697.1Overview . 697.2Program Activity. 72Final ReportiiiWest Hill Energy and Computing

Table of ContentsLIEE PY2002 Impact EvaluationTable of Contents (Continued)7.3Attrition . 737.3.1Other Demographics. 767.4Regression Results . 777.4.1Participation Effects . 787.4.2Overall Trend in Energy Use. 797.4.3Electric Space Heating Measures. 797.4.4Electric DHW package . 807.4.5Cooling Model . 807.4.6Measures with Higher Energy Use . 807.4.7Gas Model. 817.5Program Savings by Utility and Fuel Type . 837.6Impacts of Measures with Increased Use. 8988.1MEASURE-LEVEL SAVINGS. 91Scope of Measures Level Review . 928.2Lighting. 938.2.1PY2002 Analysis . 948.2.2Alternative Strategies for Assessing Savings . 958.3Refrigerators . 958.3.1PY2002 Analysis . 968.3.2Alternative Strategies for Assessing Savings . 978.4Evaporative Coolers. 978.4.1Evaporative Cooler Installation . 978.4.2Factors Affecting Savings . 978.4.3PY2002 Analysis Results. 988.4.4Approaches to Assessing Savings . 988.5Evaporative Cooler Maintenance. 998.5.1PY2002 Analysis Results. 998.6Air Conditioning Installation. 1008.6.1Central Systems. 1008.6.2Window/Wall Air Conditioners. 1018.6.3PY2002 Analysis Results. 1018.6.4Alternative Strategies for Assessing Savings . 101Final ReportivWest Hill Energy and Computing

Table of ContentsLIEE PY2002 Impact EvaluationTable of Contents (Continued)8.7Furnace Replacement/Repair . 1028.7.1PY2002 Analysis Results. 1038.7.2Alternative Strategies for Assessing Savings . 1048.8HVAC Filters. 1048.8.1PY2002 Analysis Results. 1058.9Water Heating Measures. 1058.9.1PY2002 Analysis Results for the Hot Water Package. 1068.9.2Showerheads . 1068.9.3Aerators. 1078.9.4Water Heater Wrap. 1088.9.5Alternative Strategies for Assessing Savings . 1098.10 Attic Insulation. 1098.10.1PY2002 Analysis Results. 1108.10.2Alternative Strategies for Assessing Savings . 1108.11 Air Sealing: Caulking, Weatherstripping and Outlet Gaskets. 1108.11.1PY2002 Analysis Results. 1128.11.2Alternative Strategies for Assessing Savings . 1128.12 Programmable Thermostats . 1128.12.1PY2002 Analysis Results. 1148.12.2Alternative Strategies for Assessing Savings . 1148.139References. 114DISCUSSION . 1179.1The California Energy Crisis. 1179.2Other Considerations. 1209.3Conclusion . 1219.4References. 122Final ReportvWest Hill Energy and Computing

Table of ContentsLIEE PY2002 Impact EvaluationTable of Contents (Continued)1010.1RECOMMENDATIONS. 123Improve On Site Data Collection. 12410.2 Establish Priorities for the Next Evaluation. 12610.2.1Household Approach . 12610.2.2Measure-level Approach. 12710.2.3Deemed Savings . 12810.3Establish an Appropriate Time Line . 12810.4Define the Scope of the Sample Plan . 12910.5Consider Qualitative Methods to Assess Savings from Energy Education . 12910.6Applying the Results of this Evaluation. 12910.7Postpone the Next LIEE Impact Evaluation Until PY 2005 . 13110.8Conclusion . 131List of AppendicesAppendix A Supporting DocumentationA-1: Regression Output for the Final ModelsA-2: Alternative ModelsA-3: Pre/Post Sample SelectionA-4: Analysis of OutliersA-5: Attrition by House TypeAppendix B Results by Climate ZoneB-1: Results by Climate ZoneAppendix C M&E Protocols Tables 6 and 7C-1: Table 6C-2: Table 7Appendix D Public Workshops: Minutes & CommentsFinal ReportviWest Hill Energy and Computing

Table of ContentsLIEE PY2002 Impact EvaluationTable of FiguresFigure 7-1: Annual Household Savings and Penetration of Efficient Refrigerators . 71Figure 9-1: Monthly Average Variation in Electric Use . 118Figure 9-2: Natural Gas Demand in California. 119Figure 9-3: CARE Rate Penetration from 2000 to 2004. 121Figure A-3.1: Analysis of Post-Installation Reads per Month for Electric Use . A-16Table of TablesTable E-1: PY 2002 Total Program Savings. 2Table E-2: Summary of Household Savings, PY00 through PY02 . 3Table E-3: Summary of Recommendations. 8Table 2-1: Eligible Measures for PY 2002 . 14Table 4-1: Water and Space Heating Fuel Types for Final Sample . 30Table 4-2: Measure Installation Protocols . 31Table 6-1: Common Variables in All Models. 50Table 6-2: Base Model Sampling . 51Table 6-3: Variables in the Base Electric Model Only . 51Table 6-4: Cooling Model Sample. 52Table 6-5: Variables in the Cooling Model Only . 53Table 6-6: Variables in the Gas Model Only . 55Table 6-7: Deemed Savings for DHW Measures . 57Table 6-8: Report Measure Categories and DEER Measures. 58Table 6-9: Comparison of Bootstrap and Regression Standard Errors. 62Table 6-10: Modeling Similarities between PY2002 and Previous Evaluations. 65Table 6-11: Comparison of PY2002 Evaluation Methods to Previous Evaluations. 67Table 7-1: Comparison of Household Savings and Selected Measures . 69Table 7-2: Comparison of Household Savings, PY2000 to PY2003. 70Table 7-3: PY 2002 Total Program Savings . 70Table 7-4: PG&E Summary of Program Activity by Household . 72Table 7-5: SCE Summary of Program Activity by Household. 73Table 7-6: SoCalGas Summary of Program Activity by Household. 73Table 7-7: SDG&E Summary of Program Activity by Household . 73Table 7-8: Attrition from the Electric Model by Utility . 75Table 7-9: Attrition from the Gas Model by Utility . 76Table 7-10: Regression Results and Precision Table. 77Table 7-11: Comparison of Participation Effects by Utility. 78Table 7-12: Comparison of PG&E Gas Savings from 2000 to 2002. 82Table 7-13: PGE Electric Measure and Program Savings . 83Table 7-14: SCE Electric Measure and Program Savings . 84Table 7-15: SDG&E Electric Measure and Program Savings . 85Table 7-16: PG&E Gas Measure and Program Savings . 86Table 7-17: SDGE Gas Measure and Program Savings . 87Table 7-18: SoCalGas Gas Measure and Program Savings. 88Table 7-19: PG&E Electric Measures with Increased Use. 89Final ReportviiWest Hill Energy and Computing

Table of ContentsLIEE PY2002 Impact EvaluationTable of Tables (Continued)Table 7-21: SoCalGas Measures with Increased Use . 90Table 7-22: SDG&E Gas Measures with Increased Use . 90Table 8-1: Measure-level Issues and Approaches . 92Table 8-2: Reported CFL Savings . 94Table 8-3: Refrigerator Savings by Age of Existing Unit . 96Table 8-4: Reported Refrigerator Replacement Savings . 96Table 8-5: Reported Evaporative Cooler Installation Savings . 99Table 8-6: Reported Evaporative Cooler Maintenance Savings. 99Table 8-7: Reported Air Conditioner Installation Savings . 101Table 8-8: Reported Furnace Replacement Savings. 103Table 8-9: Reported Furnace Repair Savings . 104Table 8-10: Reported HVAC Filter Savings. 105Table 8-11: Reported Showerhead Savings. 107Table 8-12: Reported Aerator Savings . 108Table 8-13: Reported Water Heater Wrap Savings . 109Table 8-14: Reported Attic Insulation Savings. 110Table 8-15: Reported Savings for Caulking and Weatherstripping. 111Table 8-16: Reported Setback Thermostat Savings. 114Table 10-1: Summary of Recommendations . 123Table 10-2: Summary of Recommended Data Collection Improvements. 125Table A-1.1: PG&E Base Model . A-2Table A-1.2: SCE Base Model. A-3Table A-1.3: SDG&E Base Model . A-3Table A-1.4: PG&E Cooling Model . A-4Table A-1.5: SCE Cooling Model . A-4Table A-1.6: Gas Model . A-5Table A-1.7: Variables in Both Electric and Gas Models . A-5Table A-1.8: Variables in the Electric Model Only. A-6Table A-1.9: Variables in the Gas Model Only . A-6Table A-2.1: Program Effects . A-8Table A-2.2: Coincidence of Electric Water and Space Heating. A-9Table A-2.3: Comparison of DHW Alternative Models (Combined Utilities) . A-9Table A-2.4: Number of Homes with Existing Central Air Conditioning (PG&E) . A-10Table A-2.5: PG&E Cooling Model for Homes with Central A/C. A-11Table A-2.6: Number of Homes with Existing Air Conditioning (SCE) . A-11Table A.2-7: Comparison of Gas Models . A-12Table A-3.1: Usage Categories . A-15Table A-4.1: Outlier Analysis for the PG&E Cooling Model . A-19Table A-4.2: Outlier Analysis for the SCE Cooling Model. A-19Table A-4.3: Outlier Analysis for the PG&E Base Model . A-20Table A-4.4: Outlier Analysis for the SCE Base Model. A-20Table A-4.5: Outlier Analysis for the SDG&E Base Model . A-21Final ReportviiiWest Hill Energy and Computing

Table of ContentsLIEE PY2002 Impact EvaluationTable of Tables (Continued)Table A-5.1: Attrition from the Electric Model by House Type . A-23Table A-5.2: Attrition from the Gas Model by House Type. A-23Table C-1: Total Gross Electric Savings . C-2Table C-2: Total Gross Gas Savings. C-3Table C-3: Gross Electric Savings by Designated Unit. C-3Table C-4: Gross Gas Savings by Designated Unit . C-4Table C-5: Measure Counts . C-5Table C-6: Distribution of Participants by Climate Zone. C-6Table C-7: Descriptive Statistics for the Electric Sample . C-9Table C-8: Descriptive Statistics for the Gas Sample. C-10Final ReportixWest Hill Energy and Computing