Transcription
International OperationsInvestor conference callNovo Nordisk A/S21 May 2021
221 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk Forward-looking statementsNovo Nordisk’s reports filed with or furnished to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including this presentation as well as the company’s statutory Annual Report 2020 and Form 20-F,which were both filed with the SEC in February 2021 in continuation of the publication of the Annual Report 2020, and written information released, or oral statements made, to the public in the future byor on behalf of Novo Nordisk, may contain forward-looking statements. Words such as ‘believe’, ‘expect’, ‘may’, ‘will’, ‘plan’, ‘strategy’, ‘prospect’, ‘foresee’, ‘estimate’, ‘project’, ‘anticipate’, ‘can’, ‘intend’,‘target’ and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance identify forward-looking statements. Examples of such forwardlooking statements include, but are not limited to: Statements of targets, plans, objectives or goals for future operations, including those related to Novo Nordisk’s products, product research, product development, product introductions andproduct approvals as well as cooperation in relation thereto,Statements containing projections of or targets for revenues, costs, income (or loss), earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure, net financials and other financialmeasures,Statements regarding future economic performance, future actions and outcome of contingencies such as legal proceedings, andStatements regarding the assumptions underlying or relating to such statements.These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific. NovoNordisk cautions that a number of important factors, including those described in this presentation, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in any forward-lookingstatements.Factors that may affect future results include, but are not limited to, global as well as local political and economic conditions, including interest rate and currency exchange rate fluctuations, delay orfailure of projects related to research and/or development, unplanned loss of patents, interruptions of supplies and production, product recalls, unexpected contract breaches or terminations,government-mandated or market-driven price decreases for Novo Nordisk’s products, introduction of competing products, reliance on information technology, Novo Nordisk’s ability to successfullymarket current and new products, exposure to product liability and legal proceedings and investigations, changes in governmental laws and related interpretation thereof, including on reimbursement,intellectual property protection and regulatory controls on testing, approval, manufacturing and marketing, perceived or actual failure to adhere to ethical marketing practices, investments in anddivestitures of domestic and foreign companies, unexpected growth in costs and expenses, failure to recruit and retain the right employees, failure to maintain a culture of compliance, and epidemicspandemics or other public health crises.For an overview of some, but not all, of the risks that could adversely affect Novo Nordisk’s results or the accuracy of forward-looking statements in this presentation, reference is made to the overview ofrisk factors in ‘Risk management’ of the Annual Report 2020.Unless required by law, Novo Nordisk is under no duty and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement after the distribution of this presentation, whether as a result ofnew information, future events or otherwise.Important drug information Victoza is approved for the management of type 2 diabetes only Saxenda is approved in the USA and the EU for the treatment of obesity only
321 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk AgendaWelcome- CFO, Karsten Munk KnudsenInternational Operations- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarEMEA- SVP of North West Europe, Frederik KierRegion China- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarRest of World- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarQ&A- facilitated by CFO, Karsten Munk Knudsen
421 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk Strategic aspirations 2025Today’s focus is International Operations Further raise the innovation-bar for diabetestreatment Being respected for adding value to society Progress towards zero environmental impact Ensure distinct core capabilities and evolve culture Develop a leading portfolio of superior treatmentsolutions for obesity Strengthen and progress the Biopharm pipeline Establish presence in Other serious chronic diseasesfocusing on CVD, NASH and CKD Deliver solid sales and operating profit growth Strengthen Diabetes leadership - aim at globalvalue market share of more than 1/3 Strengthen Obesity leadership and doublecurrent sales1 Secure a sustained growth outlook forBiopharm1 Deliver 6-10% sales growth in IO Transform 70% of sales in the US2 Drive operational efficiencies across the value chain toenable investments in future growth assets Deliver free cash flow to enable attractive capitalallocation to shareholdersBased on reported sales in 2019, 2 From 2015 to 2022, 70% of sales to come from products launched from 2015. IO: International Operations; CVD: Cardiovascular disease; NASH: Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; CKD: Chronic kidney disease.
521 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk AgendaWelcome- CFO, Karsten Munk KnudsenInternational Operations- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarEMEA- SVP of North West Europe, Frederik KierRegion China- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarRest of World- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarQ&A- facilitated by CFO, Karsten Munk Knudsen
621 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk All therapy areas have consistently supported IO growth throughutilisation of Market Fit and the portfolio of innovative productsReported IO sales from 2012 to 2020DKK billion7011%10%7%60Historic growth has been in the range of4-6%15040302010020122013Insulin2014GLP-1Note: Reported sales. 1As presented at Capital Markets Day, Nov 20192015Other diabetes care2016Obesity care2017Biopharm2018Growth at CER20192020
721 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk International Operations covers 95% of the world’s populationand the need for diabetes care continues to increasePeople with diabetes inInternational OperationsMillion 53%700640600500400Currently 6% of people living withdiabetes in IO are treated with NN insulin6%23millionDiabetes market by value and NovoNordisk market shareDKK 11000020192030EMEARegion China2045RoWPeople living with diabetes in IOGLP-1 MSOAD MSMarket growthPeople living with diabetes on insulinPeople living with diabetes on NN insulinSource: International Diabetes Federation: Diabetes Atlas 1st Edition2000 and Diabetes Atlas 9th Edition 2019; World Population Prospects2019 - United Nations; IDF Atlas 2019, [20-79 years]. EMEA: Europe,Middle East and Africa; RoW Rest of World; Reg. China: Mainland China,Hong Kong and TaiwanFeb20161 CAGRInsulin60%40%20%OADFeb2021Insulin MSDiabetes MS0%calculated for 5-year period; Competitor insulin value market shares, asof Feb 2021: Novo Nordisk 49%, Sanofi 28% and Eli Lilly 14%; Competitor GLP-1value market shares, as of Feb 2021: Novo Nordisk 55%, Eli Lilly 41% andAstraZeneca 4%; OAD: Oral anti-diabetic; MS: Market share; Source: IQVIA MAT,Feb 2021 value figures
821 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk Strategic Aspiration of 6-10% is driven by threecommercial prioritiesDriving GLP-1 market growthEstablishing basal insulin valuemarket leadershipValueExpanding the obesity market 570 millionacross 0%0%Feb2019NN share of growthNN market shareSource: IQVIA, Feb 2021, value, MATFeb20210%Feb2019NN share of growthNN market shareNN growthMarket growthFeb2021 2%PeoplewithobesityPeoplemedicallytreated
921 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk AgendaWelcome- CFO, Karsten Munk KnudsenInternational Operations- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarEMEA- SVP of North West Europe, Frederik KierRegion China- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarRest of World- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarQ&A- facilitated by CFO, Karsten Munk Knudsen
EMEA1021 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk EMEA at a glanceFrom low to high single digit sales growth in 5 yearsPeople with diabetes in EMEAMillionDKK billion250 66%100200801506022310050Reported sales and growth at CERDiabetes market by value and NovoNordisk market %9%4%5%201720184002045Population with diabetesDiabetes growth rateDiabetes trend estimates based on the following International Diabetes Foundation definedregions: Africa, Europe, Middle East and North Africa. Source: International DiabetesFederation: Diabetes Atlas 1th Edition 2000 and Diabetes Atlas 9th Edition 2019; EMEA:Europe, Middle East and Africa40GLP-1GLP-110%120203080%9%1OAD02019DKK billion1 CAGRFeb2016GLP-1 MSOAD MSMarket growthOADFeb2021Insulin MSDiabetes MS0%calculated for 5-year period; Competitor insulin value market shares, as of Feb 2021:Novo Nordisk 48%, Sanofi 33% and Eli Lilly 16%; Competitor GLP-1 value market shares, asof Feb 2021: Novo Nordisk 56%, Eli Lilly 39% and AstraZeneca 4%; OAD: Oral anti-diabetic;MS: Market share; Source: IQVIA MAT, Feb 2021 value figures020162019BiopharmGLP-1ObesityInsulinOther diabetesGrowth at CER2020
EMEA1121 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk Ozempic share of growth increased from 4% to 84% in 2 years, driven by strong commercial executionGLP-1 share of growth by brand in EMEAOzempic is on track to become the most used GLP-1 in EMEAShare of growth (value)GLP-1 volume %40.3%31.6%30%17.6%30%22.0%15%0%2.1%-30%Feb ’19Ozempic Aug ’19Rybelsus Feb ’20dulaglutideAug ’20Victoza Note: “Other” includes exenatide, lixisenatide, albiglutide. MS: Market shareSource: IQVIA, monthly, spot rate, value and volume (Latest data point: Feb 2021)Feb ’21Other0.7%0%Feb2019Feb2020Feb2021Ozempic Rybelsus NN GLP-1Victoza dulaglutideOther
EMEA1221 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk Rybelsus launches are progressing wellRybelsus uptake in MOADRybelsus uptake in GLP-1Market share (MOAD)Market share %4.8%4%4.9%0.5%03691215182124273033 351.3%0%0369Time since launch (weeks)Denmark1215182124Time since launch (weeks)SwitzerlandSwedenThe NetherlandsThe UKNote: Launched in 11 markets in EMEA, but data is only available for the markets shown; MOAD: Modern oral antidiabetics includes oral GLP-1, SGLT-2 and DPP-IV therapy segments. All figures arebased on value. Source: IQVIA MIDAS, latest data as of Week starting 12th Apr 2021 (DK, NL, SE) and week starting 5th April 2021 (CH , UK ). MS: Market share273033 35
EMEA1321 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk EMEA is pursuing a targeted approach with multiplestrategies for driving obesity sales performanceOut-of-pocket market initiativesDedicated obesity clinics in the Middle East 120obesityclinics3 3x since 2018 providingNumber of clinics increased bybetter quality care for PwO (including training of HCPs)Securing local reimbursementSaxenda volume (pens per 100k inhabitants)500400Innovative partnershipsIceland (capped):Individualreimbursement atlaunchNorway:Individualreimbursement atlaunch1300200Awareness and digital solutionsGeo-locator to find the right HCPs and pharmaciesspecialised in obesitySwitzerland:Reimbursementgranted 1 Apr20202UK: NICEreimbursementguidance issued inDec 2020310001112131415161Time since launch (weeks)1BMI 40 or BMI 35 with comorbidities post Mysimba failure; 2 BMI 28 comorbidities or BMI 35 without comorbidities; 3 BMI 35 pre-diabetes CV riskNote: Middle East includes United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar; Saxenda volume figures are normalised by launch month and each data point is rolling 3 months; PwO: People with Obesity; HCPs:Healthcare professionals
1421 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk AgendaWelcome- CFO, Karsten Munk KnudsenInternational Operations- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarEMEA- SVP of North West Europe, Frederik KierRegion China- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarRest of World- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarQ&A- facilitated by CFO, Karsten Munk Knudsen
Region China1521 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk Region China at a glanceFrom human insulin to new-generation insulin and beyondPeople with diabetes in Region ChinaDKKbillion25Million250 30%20011%1GLP-120150100Diabetes market by value and NovoNordisk market share16321250%1500201920302045Population with diabetesDiabetes growth LP-1 MSInsulin MSOAD MSDiabetes MS1 CAGR11%12%12%6%201620178%10520%0%Market growthSource: International Diabetes Federation: Diabetes Atlas 1th Edition 2000 andDiabetes Atlas 9th Edition 2019. The numbers include countries from the WesternPacific. Note: China made up 129 million of the 163 million people with diabetes in2019. Region China: Mainland China, Hong Kong and TaiwanNovo Nordisk reported sales1580%15197DKKbillioncalculated for last 5-year period. Competitor insulin value market shares, as of Feb2021: Novo Nordisk 48%, Sanofi 18%, Gan & Lee 13% and Eli Lilly 9%; Competitor GLP-1value market shares, as of Feb 2021: Novo Nordisk 89% and AstraZeneca 3%OAD: Oral anti-diabetic; MS: Market share; Source: IQVIA MAT, Feb 2021 value figures02018BiopharmGLP-1New-generation insulinHuman insulin20192020ObesityOther diabetesModern insulinGrowth at CER
Region China1621 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk Novo Nordisk is taking market share in the growing insulinmarketPre-mix insulin has the largest volume, whilepre-mix and basal share the largest valueDKK billion100%57%48%1320%43%BasalBasal60%Basal insulin MSInsulin value market growth: 6%Total80%Tresiba drives basal insulin value MS1 andthere is upgrade potential with Ryzodeg NN’s market share is high in the pre-mixmarket and low in basal insulin5Tresiba has gained 5%-psince 2020 NRDL listing30%NRDL: Jan 0%341%20%Human 42%19%BasalPre-mixFeb2021 Included in the NRDLeffective 1 March 2021ValueBolusBasal30%VolumeFeb2019Novo NordiskSource: IQVIA, Feb 2021. MS: Market share; NN: Novo Nordisk; NRDL: National Reimbursement Drug List. 1Rolling 3 month averageCompetitors
Region China1721 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk Novo Nordisk is well placed to realise opportunities andmanage risks within the China policy agendaWIN 2025– Novo Nordisk strategy is to remain the trustedpartner in diabetes careChina’s 14th Five-Year Plan(2020 – 2025)- suggested focus areas include economicand innovation developmentOpportunities Accelerated innovation and market access Chronic disease management focusHealthy China 2030- diabetes prevention and controlamong 15 projectsRisks Intensifying competitive environment Cost containment policies, particularly volume-based procurement (VBP)
Region China1821 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk Innovation is a key priorityClinical milestones1Regulatory milestones1ProjectDiabetes careOzempic Q2 2021Q3 2021Obesity careBiopharmPioneer 11 completionPioneer 12 completionNDA submission ONWARDS 3initiationSTEP 7 completionOral sema 50 mgOASIS initiationNovoEight Refixia NDA approvalPathfinder 10 initiationParadigm CTA reviewNorditropin Somapacitan GHDSEMA NASHPartnership with China ResourcesREAL initiationESSENCE initiationSema inAlzheimer’s disease1 Expected2023Sema 2.4 mgEsperoct Other seriouschronic diseases2022 ApprovedRybelsus IcodecQ4 2021to be published in the subsequent quarterly company announcement. The timing is as expected May 2021 and subject to change.NDA: New drug application; CTA: Clinical trial application; sema: semaglutideNote: All estimated R&D milestones relate to China and do not necessarily coincide with global R&D milestonesEVOKE initiation
1921 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk AgendaWelcome- CFO, Karsten Munk KnudsenInternational Operations- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarEMEA- SVP of North West Europe, Frederik KierRegion China- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarRest of World- EVP and Head of IO, Maziar Mike DoustdarQ&A- facilitated by CFO, Karsten Munk Knudsen
Rest of World2021 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk Rest of World at a glanceA diverse area suitable for the Market Fit approachPeople with diabetesin Rest of WorldMillionDiabetes market by value andNovo Nordisk market shareDKK billion 70%702001505080%202155119DKK billion206%160100Reported sales and growth at ulin40%302012%OAD1020%1000201920302045Population with diabetesDiabetes growth rateDiabetes trend estimates based on the following International DiabetesFoundation defined regions: South & Central America, Southeast AsiaInternational Diabetes Federation: Diabetes Atlas 1th Edition 2000 and DiabetesAtlas 9th Edition 20191 CAGRFeb2016GLP-1 MSOAD MSMarket growthFeb2021Insulin MSDiabetes MS0%calculated for last 5-year period. Competitor insulin value marketshares, as of Feb 2021: Novo Nordisk 56%, Sanofi 24% and Eli Lilly 16%;Competitor GLP-1 value market shares, as of Feb 2021: Novo Nordisk 45%,Eli Lilly 51% and AstraZeneca 3%OAD: Oral anti-diabetic; MS: Market share; Source: IQVIA MAT, Feb 2021 her diabetesGrowth at CER
Rest of World2121 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk GLP-1 has become the key growth driver in RoW with 50%share of sales growth, driven by Ozempic and Rybelsus GLP-1 is the fastest growing segment andonly 8% of the diabetes value marketNovo Nordisk continues to take market share inthe fast growing GLP-1 market80%Continued focus on Ozempic rollout and Rybelsus launches73%60%20%45%18%40%8% Launched in 15 countries 43% share of sales growth in Q1 202120%35%19%0%-20%InsulinGLP-1DPP-4Other OADSource: IQVIA, MAT, Feb 2021.SGLT-2 Launched in JapanNN market shareNN share of growth
2221 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk With Rybelsus , Novo Nordisk is present in Japan’s 20 billion DKKoral anti-diabetic marketOAD market grows 4% yearly and DPP-4s isthe most prescribed OAD with 50%OAD market grows 4% annuallyRybelsus source of business ismainly from DPP-4s (only or 0%SGLT-2Trad. OAD16%12%11%SoBSoB (non-GLP-1)GLP-1NaïveDPP-4i SGLT-2iOther OADsNon-GLP-1DPP-4iSGLT-2iInsulinSoB: Source of business; OAD: Oral antidiabetic; NN: Novo Nordisk; MOAD: Modern oral antidiabetic; HCPs: Healthcare professionals.Source: IQVIA MIDAS, spot rate, Feb 2021; IQVIA LRx (Mar 2021). 1 Impact track OAD market, MR detail and online detailKey market focus for Rybelsus Japan launch Rybelsus is made available through the MSD partnership Together, the highest Share of Voice1 of any MOAD brandwithin HCPs treating diabetes is achieved Rybelsus is being promoted to 3x more prescribers thanNN’s previous reach Rybelsus has gained 0.5% value market share in the MOADmarket two months after the launch 5 Feb 2021 2-week prescription limitation continues until 1 Dec 2021
2321 May 2021International Operations investor conference callNovo Nordisk International Operations key take-awaysInternational Operations growth outlook is supported by Number of people with diabetes is expected to increase by more than 50% towards 2045 Novo Nordisk insulin is used by 6% of people with diabetes in IO, indicating continued volume growthpotential and relevance of roll-out of innovative new-generation insulin to ensure better outcomes for patients GLP-1 is used by 3 million people in IO, equivalent to 1% of people with diabetes, highlighting continuedgrowth potential with roll-out of Ozempic and Rybelsus Significant unmet need within obesity treatment with 2% of 570 million people with obesity being medicallytreatedSource: IQVIA, Feb 2021 and IDF: Diabetes Atlas 1st Edition 2000 and Diabetes Atlas 9th Edition 2019; World Population Prospects 2019 - United Nations; IDF Atlas 2019, [20-79 years]
International Operations covers 95% of the world's population and the need for diabetes care continues to increase 7 21 May 2021 International Operations investor conference call 415 520 640 Million 23 6% million People living with diabetes on insulin People living with diabetes on NN insulin People living with diabetes in IO
