2026 Job Outlook - OhioLMI

Transcription

2026JobOutlookCleveland-ElyriaMetropolitan Statistical AreaCuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, and Medina CountiesJuly 2019

2026 Job Outlook for Ohio Metropolitan Statistical AreasThe Ohio Department of Job and Family Services’ Bureau of Labor Market Informationupdates employment projections every two years. The projections are widely used forstudying long-range economic and employment trends, planning education and trainingprograms, and developing career information. This edition uses employment statisticsthrough 2016 as a foundation to project employment conditions for the 10-year periodending in 2026.The table below summarizes 2016 employment levels and projected 2026 levels forOhio’s eight largest metropolitan statistical areas. The difference between those yearsrepresents projected new jobs as a result of industry growth. The number of these newjobs is expected to range from 2,688 in the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman metropolitanstatistical area (MSA) to 98,440 in the Columbus MSA. The Columbus MSA is projected togrow at the fastest rate, 9.1 percent. The Cincinnati MSA is expected to grow at thesecond fastest rate, 5.3 percent, followed by the Dayton and Akron MSAs at 4.9 percent.The Cleveland-Elyria MSA is projected to grow 3.3 percent. The Canton-Massillon MSA isexpected to grow 2.4 percent, followed by the Toledo MSA at 1.6 percent and theYoungstown-Warren-Boardman MSA at 1.5 percent.Comparison of Ohio Metropolitan Statistical Areas: 2016-2026Ohio Metropolitan Statistical d Change2016-2026NumberPercentAkron MSA345,978362,84316,8654.9%Canton-Massillon MSA180,652184,9714,3192.4%Cincinnati MSA882,500929,30746,8075.3%Cleveland-Elyria MSA1,083,5011,119,79636,2953.3%Columbus MSA1,087,1541,185,59498,4409.1%Dayton MSA393,504412,91919,4154.9%Toledo an MSA180,783183,4712,6881.5%Each 2026 Job Outlook report for Ohio’s metropolitan statistical areas contains asummary of the employment outlook by industry and occupation. Typical education,work experience and on-the-job training required for each occupation is provided. Annualopenings are the result of industry growth and vacancies resulting from retirement andtransfers to different occupations.1

Technical NotesProjections of employment demand were made primarily at the four-digit industry level and thenaggregated to the three-digit level, based on the North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). Shift-share, time-series and regression analysis techniques were used to compareOhio’s historical regional industry employment to statewide and national industry employment,population growth and various other factors. State and local area projections are partiallydependent on the outlook for specific industries nationally.Regional staffing patterns were estimated using the Local Employment and Wage InformationSystem, which creates wage estimates for customized geographic regions using data from theOccupational Employment Statistics (OES) surveys. Wage estimates are based on Ohio’s OESsurveys. Wage estimates produced for 2017 were statistically “aged” using the EmploymentCost Index for March 2018.Ohio industry staffing patterns were adjusted for expected technological change and otherfactors from national data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Annualoccupational separations were calculated by BLS, as explained atbls.gov/emp/documentation/separations.htm.Users familiar with projections data may notice that the numbers of projected openings aresignificantly higher in this report than in past projections. This is due to BLS’ adoption of a newmethodology that changes the way job openings are estimated. Because of this change, longterm projections from previous periods should not be compared to newer projections goingforward. The previous methodology assumed that most individuals followed a “traditional”career path: entering employment at a young age, remaining in the same occupation untilretirement, and then being replaced by another worker. The new methodology reflects thechanging workforce of the 21st century and recognizes that workers may have several careerchanges during their working lives. This dynamic workforce is reflected in the estimation of jobopenings, which are created not only when workers retire, but also when they move from oneoccupation to another. The resulting data is more accurate and reliable, especially for smalleroccupations.Inclusion of education and training levels is made possible by the classification of the StandardOccupational Classification-based occupations into 11 distinct categories by the BLS Office ofOccupational Statistics and Employment Projections.Because it is difficult to estimate future needs with certainty, the long-term job outlook data areupdated every other year. More information about projected local job growth in Ohio is availablethrough reports published at ohiolmi.com/proj/OhioJobOutlook.htm. For more information,contact the Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information at (614) 752-9494 orContactLMI@jfs.ohio.gov.2

Cleveland‐Elyria Metropolitan Statistical AreaIndustry Employment Projection Report: ds ProducingNatural Resources and MiningMining, except oil and gasAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and HuntingConstructionConstruction of buildingsHeavy and civil engineering constructionSpecialty trade contractorsManufacturingFood manufacturingBeverage and tobacco product manufacturingApparel manufacturingPrinting and related support activitiesPetroleum and coal products manufacturingChemical manufacturingPlastics and rubber products manufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingPrimary metal manufacturingFabricated metal product manufacturingMachinery manufacturingComputer and electronic product manufacturingElectrical equipment, appliance, and component manufacturingTransportation equipment manufacturingMiscellaneous manufacturingService ProvidingTrade, Transportation, and UtilitiesWholesale TradeMerchant wholesalers, durable goodsMerchant wholesalers, nondurable goodsWholesale electronic markets and agents and brokersRetail TradeMotor vehicle and parts dealersFurniture and home furnishings storesElectronics and appliance storesBuilding material and garden supply storesFood and beverage storesHealth and personal care storesGasoline stationsClothing and clothing accessories storesSporting goods, hobby, book, and music storesGeneral merchandise storesMiscellaneous store retailersNonstore retailersTransportation and WarehousingTruck transportationTransit and ground passenger transportationSupport activities for 3,9834,194Projected Changein Employment2016‐2026 /A1071.2%45717.2%2115.3%

Cleveland‐Elyria Metropolitan Statistical AreaIndustry Employment Projection Report: tionPublishing industries, except InternetMotion picture and sound recording industriesBroadcasting, except internetTelecommunicationsFinancial ActivitiesFinance and InsuranceCredit intermediation and related activitiesSecurities, commodity contracts, and related activitiesInsurance carriers and related activitiesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal estateProfessional and Business ServicesProfessional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesLegal servicesAccounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll servicesArchitectural, engineering, and related servicesComputer systems design and related servicesManagement, scientific, and technical consulting servicesAdvertising, public relations, and related servicesOther professional, scientific, and technical servicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Waste ServicesOffice administrative servicesFacilities support servicesEmployment servicesTravel arrangement and reservation servicesServices to buildings and dwellingsOther support servicesWaste management and remediation servicesEducation and Health ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory health care servicesHospitalsNursing and residential care facilitiesSocial assistanceLeisure and HospitalityArts, Entertainment, and RecreationPerforming arts, spectator sports, and related industriesMuseums, historical sites, and similar institutionsAmusement, gambling, and recreation industriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood services and drinking placesOther ServicesRepair and maintenancePersonal and laundry 43,6688,8809,04912,31012,947Projected Changein Employment2016‐2026 940.7%1691.9%6375.2%

Cleveland‐Elyria Metropolitan Statistical AreaIndustry Employment Projection Report: 2016‐2026NAICSCODE813814DescriptionReligious, grantmaking, civic, professional, and similar organizationsPrivate householdsGovernmentFederal GovernmentPostal serviceFederal government, except postal serviceState GovernmentLocal GovernmentSelf Employed and Unpaid Family Workers*Selected industries with 500 or more employees.Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, Bureau of Labor Market Information, July d Changein Employment2016‐2026 6.1%

Cleveland‐Elyria Metropolitan Statistical AreaOccupational* Employment Projections Report, 2016‐2026CodeOccupational Title**00‐0000 Total, All Occupations11‐0000 Management Occupations11‐1011Chief Executives11‐1021General and Operations Managers11‐1031Legislators11‐2021Marketing Managers11‐2022Sales Managers11‐2031Public Relations Managers11‐3011Administrative Services Managers11‐3021Computer and Information Systems Managers11‐3031Financial Managers11‐3051Industrial Production Managers11‐3061Purchasing Managers11‐3071Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers11‐3111Compensation and Benefits Managers11‐3121Human Resources Managers11‐3131Training and Development Managers11‐9021Construction Managers11‐9031Education Admin., Preschool and Childcare Center/Prog.11‐9032Education Admin., Elem. and Secondary School11‐9033Education Administrators, Postsecondary11‐9039Education Administrators, All Other11‐9041Engineering Managers11‐9051Food Service Managers11‐9061Funeral Service Managers11‐9081Lodging Managers11‐9111Medical and Health Services Managers11‐9121Natural Sciences Managers11‐9141Property, Real Estate, and Community Assn. Mgrs11‐9151Social and Community Service Managers11‐9199Managers, All Other13‐0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations13‐1022Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products13‐1023Purchasing Agents, ex. Wholesale, Retail, and Farm13‐1031Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators13‐1041Compliance Officers13‐1051Cost Estimators13‐1071Human Resource Specialists13‐1075Labor Relations 501 11,3471,4302,0522,1354,7394,9721,1099986Change inEmployment2016‐2026 Percent %82334.9%23‐111 ‐10.0%‐11Annual OpeningsExitTransfersTotal50,40467,125 0397011766136210141319483316989MedianWage,March 2018*** 91.62 ††† 47.69 19,728 †† 61.10 57.76 51.76 43.58 61.67 60.70 47.91 53.49 43.63 50.66 52.94 50.10 45.06 18.45 90,436 †† 43.32 35.61 64.09 25.76 42.79 17.66 45.13 68.11 24.87 34.83 48.96 33.45 30.11 30.01 28.22 11.28

Cleveland‐Elyria Metropolitan Statistical AreaOccupational* Employment Projections Report, 2016‐2026CodeOccupational Title**13‐1081Logisticians13‐1111Management Analysts13‐1121Meeting and Convention Planners13‐1131Fundraisers13‐1141Compensation, Benefits, and Job Analysis Specialists13‐1151Training and Development Specialists13‐1161Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists13‐1199Business Operations Specialists, All Other13‐2011Accountants and Auditors13‐2021Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate13‐2041Credit Analysts13‐2051Financial Analysts13‐2052Personal Financial Advisors13‐2061Financial Examiners13‐2072Loan Officers13‐2081Tax Examiners, Collectors, and Revenue Agents13‐2082Tax Preparers13‐2099Financial Specialists, All Other15‐0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations15‐1121Computer Systems Analysts15‐1122Information Security Analysts15‐1131Computer Programmers15‐1132Software Developers, Applications15‐1133Software Developers, Systems Software15‐1134Web Developers15‐1141Database Administrators15‐1142Network and Computer Systems Administrators15‐1143Computer Network Architects15‐1151Computer User Support Specialists15‐1152Computer Network Support Specialists15‐1199Computer Occupations, All Other15‐2011Actuaries15‐2031Operations Research Analysts15‐2041Statisticians17‐0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations17‐1011Architects, Except Landscape and Naval17‐1012Landscape Architects17‐2011Aerospace Engineers17‐2031Biomedical 64454518028723263557Change inEmployment2016‐2026 Percent 979.6%102,6599.5%2661783.7%186718.3%7‐141 l ianWage,March 2018*** 33.77 37.53 21.03 26.62 27.58 28.16 29.38 31.52 32.77 35.85 37.99 35.98 40.08 36.81 36.01 34.80 21.44 35.39 38.14 42.95 30.34 38.22 45.40 29.82 31.20 37.06 45.15 21.83 26.40 36.66 37.86 35.01 38.28 36.11 27.22 57.64 35.04

Cleveland‐Elyria Metropolitan Statistical AreaOccupational* Employment Projections Report, 2016‐2026CodeOccupational Title**17‐2041Chemical Engineers17‐2051Civil Engineers17‐2071Electrical Engineers17‐2072Electronics Engineers, Except Computer17‐2111Health and Safety Engineers, Except Mining Safety17‐2112Industrial Engineers17‐2131Materials Engineers17‐2141Mechanical Engineers17‐2199Engineers, All Other17‐3011Architectural and Civil Drafters17‐3012Electrical and Electronics Drafters17‐3013Mechanical Drafters17‐3019Drafters, All Other17‐3022Civil Engineering Technicians17‐3023Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technicians17‐3024Electro‐Mechanical Technicians17‐3026Industrial Engineering Technicians17‐3027Mechanical Engineering Technicians17‐3029Engineering Technicians, Except Drafters, All Other17‐3031Surveying and Mapping Technicians19‐0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations19‐1029Biological Scientists, All Other19‐2031Chemists19‐2032Materials Scientists19‐3031Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists19‐3039Psychologists, All Other19‐3051Urban and Regional Planners19‐3099Social Scientists and Related Workers, All Other19‐4021Biological Technicians19‐4031Chemical Technicians19‐4091Environ. Science and Protection Tech., inc. Health19‐4099Life, Physical, and Social Science Tech., All Other21‐0000 Community and Social Service Occupations21‐1011Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors21‐1012Educational, Vocational, and School Counselors21‐1014Mental Health Counselors21‐1015Rehabilitation Counselors21‐1019Counselors, All Other21‐1021Child, Family, and School Social 9282602762,3012,5798Change inEmployment2016‐2026 Percent 7.9%7166.2%227812.1%28Annual 319830271MedianWage,March 2018*** 49.44 38.33 41.05 44.83 41.43 39.60 44.10 37.88 47.95 24.71 28.10 26.72 25.02 27.45 29.43 26.88 26.78 28.88 30.56 23.86 40.57 34.01 44.23 34.34 46.50 31.03 36.91 22.09 21.70 22.40 24.80 30.15 20.20 22.96 21.39

Cleveland‐Elyria Metropolitan Statistical AreaOccupational* Employment Projections Report, 2016‐2026Code

5613 Employment services 26,582 28,833 2,251 8.5% 5615 Travel arrangement and reservation services 833 618 ‐215 ‐25.8% 5617 Services to buildings and dwellings 13,774 14,314 540 3.9% 5619 Other support services 1,318 1,277 ‐41 ‐3.1% 562 Was