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Foresight Strategy CockpitOverview:Modules and MethodsFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Methods OverviewSOFTWARE · Methods & FeaturesTrend AnalysisRisk AnalysisIdea AnalysisAlternative Scenario CreationExploratory Scenario CreationCross-Impact-AnalysisCluster AnalysisConsistency AnalysisEnvironmental ScanningUncertainty AnalysisStrategy DefinitionStrategy EvaluationDecision MatrixReal-time delphiSurveyReportingStakeholder AnalysisTechnology AnalysisMonitoringMind-MappingFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Methods OverviewANALOG · Workshop MethodsBackcastingBrainwritingExpert ForumExpert InterviewsFifth ScenarioFutures WheelGamingMulti-Perspective DialogueOpen SpaceRobustness CheckSeven QuestionsSWOT sioningWindtunnelingWorld-CaféFutures ConferenceFutures WorkbenchFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Trend ManagementFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Trend ManagementGrasping change and complexityWHAT IS TREND MANAGEMENT?TREND RADAROur world is becoming more complex and volatile than ever before withvast changes in society, technology and markets alike. Trends havebecome a symbol for this and, over the last few decades, it has becomecommon practice to use them to understand future developments andGlobal TrendsTrend radarimpacts. However, the stabilizing and continuous nature of trends isstarting to crumble as insights about megatrends and new technologieshave to be adapted to the specific deterministic of the environment inOUR TREND LOOP12345678which they unfold. The direction and implications of trends can changerapidly, while considering different markets, cultures and politicalFOCAL ISSUEsystems as well as their resonance in media.Define the area of focus.SIGNALSScan data bases and knowledge.PATTERNSAggregate signals to patterns.THE IDEA: DATA AND PEOPLE DRIVENWe believe that the core of each trend management process is theinteraction between people and data. In today’s organizations, a diverseTRENDSexpertise is essential to finding new signals and combining futureDefine trends with impacts.impacts with strategic implications. However, the term expert has oftenCLUSTERAnalyze clusters and relatedtrends.EVALUATERate and assess trends withexperts.been too narrowly defined. For holistic trend management, everyindividual unit of an organization has insights to share and moreimportantly data to back them up with. Instead of working in data silos,data and expertise have to be shared and systematically aggregated.Thus, we have developed a software and data-driven concept - theTrend management Loop, with places the Foresight Strategy Cockpitfront and center.MONITORINGObserve and assess developments.TRANSFERResults and strategic implications.THE FORESIGHT STRATEGY COCKPITTREND MANAGEMENT MODULEThe Foresight Strategy Cockpit Trend Module combines all aspectsof our approach in a web-based analysis support system. The Cockpitallows all users to integrate and share their knowledge, evaluatedevelopments and create patterns by linking insights together.Furthermore, the Foresight Strategy Cockpit (FSC) entails an
indicator and trend database as well as access to media analysis tomonitor developments in Real-Time.COLLABORATIVE TREND MANAGEMENTWith the FSC, the amount of coordination and programs needed tomanage trends and signals are reduced to one. Through a holisticaggregation of internal information, external expert knowledge anddata-driven insights, every unit can collectively contribute to theassessment of relevant trends and their developments. All insightscreated can be exported as ready-to-use reports just by the click ofa button.DATA-DRIVEN SCOUTING & MONITORINGBesides people-driven knowledge, data is the backbone of each trendmanagement process. The FSC gives access to indicators and mediaanalysis to monitor country-specific trends in Real-Time. With our datadriven environmental scanning, new signals or market developmentscan be detected via our own Browser Add-On integrated in the FSC.OUR VALUES IN SHORTCollaborative Trend ManagementBrowser Add-on and App forfaster integration of relevantpieces of informationTrend-Monitoring in Real-timeAutomated Reporting functionsfor fast communicationFully supported and trained by ourForesight expertsFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Innovation ManagementFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Innovation ManagementNew solutions for future challengesWHAT IS INNOVATION MANAGEMENT?INNOVATION FUNNEL1Ideas are the root of innovation: By collaboratively collecting and234evaluating ideas we can identify new products, business models oroperational improvements. Diversity of opinions, views and knowledgeIdeasCriteriaTestingExternalEnvironmentis the key to developing innovative solutions. In the ForesightStrategy Cockpit users can collaboratively discuss and rate ideas andother insights. New ideas can be easily created, edited and updatedand if necessary, external knowledge can be included through surveymethods.OUR INNOVATION PROCESS1234567DEFINE PRIORITIESDefine your priorities and understandyour environment.EXPLOIT YOUR CREATIVE POTENTIALIdeas are innovative consequences classified within a certain context,COLLECT IDEASsuch as time, emphasizing their respective advantages and disadvan-Collect ideas collaboratively andtages. Idea Analysis, like Trend Analysis, evaluates ideas using as manywith different methods.individual opinions as possible. Evaluation criteria are determinedCONCRETISE IDEASbeforehand by an administrator. Ideas can be linked with qualitative orMake the ideas of a communityquantitative information to boost and strengthen their positions. Theavailable and improve them together.group evaluation results are reported in a Rating Matrix, RadarRATE IDEASor Portfolio according to statistical calculations.Rate and assess ideas inside oroutside your organization.EVALUATE RESULTSEvaluate the ideas according toyour decision criteria.PUT IDEAS INTO PRACTICETHE FORESIGHT STRATEGY COCKPITINNOVATION MANAGEMENT MODULEWith its Innovation Management module, the Foresight StrategyCreate concepts and transform theCockpit (FSC) helps your company to organize new and existing ideas,ideas into a roadmap.analyze and evaluate them and put them into practice. Take a joint lookMONITORINGFollow the implementation of yourat all the decisive factors that determine the realization and chances ofsuccess of your entrepreneurial ideas. Our customizable tool enablesideas in the roadmap and adjust itusers to freely adjust adjust evaluation criteria, user rights and roleat any time.management and to individualize for different projects. Therefore, youcan create individual and different evaluation criteria for different ideaprojects and can decide which employees have access to which project.
COLLABORATIVE IDEA ANALYSISEvaluate ideas in your team by using customizable evaluation criteria.Invite external experts and let them participate in the process with ourSurvey method. Observe the whole process in real-time. The Systemautomatically processes individual ratings into consolidated andmeaningful data.DATA-DRIVEN SCOUTING & MONITORINGWith the visualization options of the FSC it is easy to interpret resultsand decide transparently which ideas should prevail over others. Onthis basis, corresponding implementation strategies can be formulated.All insights created can finally be exported as ready-to-use reports(as .pdf or .docx) just by the click of a button.OUR VALUES IN SHORTCollaborative Innovation ManagementAccess to indicators and media analysisBrowser Add-on and App forfaster integration of relevantpieces of informationAutomated Reporting functionsfor fast communicationFully supported and trained by ourForesight expertsFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Risk ManagementFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Risk ManagementRisk inside a VUCA environmentWHAT IS RISK MANAGEMENT?RISK GRAPHVUCA stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous - asynonym for the daily business environment in which we operate. Highimpact events and their consequences, such as the financial crisis,Risk potentialdemonstrate that a new way of thinking about risks and their management is needed. Instead of trying to forecast unpredictable risks, newanalytical frameworks are needed with longer time frames for strategicTimelineplanning. Big data and diverse expert knowledge allow us to combineReal-Time insights with strategic implications in an agile way.OUR RISK HEAT APPROACH40 30 20 10 PREVENTDetermine risk profiles foridentification.THE RISKS OF RISK MANAGEMENTCompanies and public institutions are operating in a complicated andREDUCEvolatile Environment, where new risks are constantly evolving, whileEvaluate risks and their impacts.others are changing direction with meaningful impacts. Our approachLAY-OFFCounter measure and defineconsists of different phases reflecting the strategic vulnerability of arisks, while considering its unique aspects:strategies.LAYERS ARCHITECTURE — Risks and Opportunities should be analyACCEPTMonitor risk for earlywarning detection.zed from different perspectives.INDEPENDENCES — Risks have an influence on each other and areshaped by alternative future outcomes.CONSTANT MOVEMENT — An efficient monitoring over time and withdata to back it up is often missing.THE FORESIGHT STRATEGY COCKPITRISK MANAGEMENT MODULEThe Foresight Strategy Cockpit Risk Module combines data and expertknowledge in one collaborative environment to manage each state ofrisks. Furthermore, the Foresight Strategy Cockpit (FSC) entails anindicator and risk database as well as access to media analysis tomonitor developments in Real-Time.
COLLABORATIVE RISK MANAGEMENTWith the FSC, the amount of coordination and programs needed tomanage risks and signals are reduced to one. Through a holistic aggregation of internal information, external expert knowledge and datadriven insights, analysts can collectively contribute to the assessmentof relevant risks and their strategic impacts. All insights created can beexported as ready-to-use reports just by the click of a button.EARLY CRISIS DETECTIONBringing together qualitative data from media analysis and quantitativeindicators, analysts can monitor the stability and development of risksin real-time. With that, the stability of a country or business sector canbe monitored to detect triggers or preventers that may be relevant forfuture crises and risk management.OUR VALUES IN SHORTCollaborative risk managementBrowser Add-on and App forfaster integration of relevantpieces of informationRisk-Monitoring in Real-TimeAutomated Reporting functions forfast communicationFully supported and trained by ourForesight expertsFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Scenario ManagementFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Scenario ManagementReduce uncertainty and complexityWHAT IS SCENARIO MANAGEMENT?FUTURE FUNNELIn the scientific field of Futures Studies, one single future does notPossibleNowProbablyDesirableOUR SCENARIO PROCESS1234SCOUTING FOR WEAK SIGNALS6one will occur someday. By developing scenarios (“drafts” or “images”of the future), you mentally prepare for possible future events andminimize the risk of getting caught off guard. Our Scenario Management module not only allows users to createscenarios, it enables you to establish and maintain a whole scenariobuilding process in your organization. Therefore, organizationalSearch and identify weak signals,resources of knowledge and insights can be easily integrated,trends or other information.connected and collaboratively analyzed.DERIVE FACTORSUse various methods to guide thefirst possible factors.ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNINGACTIVELY ENGANGE WITHPOSSIBLE FUTURESCheck and add your factors with theenvironment scanning methods.DETERMINE KEY FACTORSIdentify factors with the stron-A scenario is a hypothetical way the future could develop and should beinvestigated and analyzed. It is made of a combination of projectionsbelonging to two or more factors and described in detail.gest impact and most uncertaindevelopment process.5exist. Instead, it is assumed that there are several futures from whichCREATE SCENARIOSThe scenario management module offers three different methods ofscenario construction. The alternative and explorative scenario cons-Create scenarios through the combi-truction as well as the consistency analysis. The latter is indispensablenation of factors and projections.if a large number of factors and project pairs are to be analysed. In theANALYSE SCENARIOSUse various methods such as back-consistency analysis, the consistency of projection pairs is evaluatedand the system then calculates consistent raw and mixed scenarios.casting to analyse scenarios and deriveyour results.7COMMUNICATE RESULTSExport, share and publish your resultswith the click of a button.THE FORESIGHT STRATEGY COCKPITSCENARIO MANAGEMENT MODULEOur Scenario Module supports three established scenario-creatingtechniques. The module is completed by additional methods, such asEnvironmental Scanning, Mind Mapping and a fully automated reportmethod to publish and export results.
FLEXIBLE SCENARIO CREATION WITHNO LIMITSIn the Explorative Scenario Construction, users can create, edit andupdate factors with a few clicks. Within a factor, an unlimited amount ofprojections can be created. From these factor-projection-combinationsdetailed and differentiated scenarios can be designed.QUICK AND SIMPLE: THE FOUR-AXISSCENARIO MODELIn the Alternative Scenario Construction two factors, each with twoextreme projections (i.e. best and worst possible course) are set againsteach other in a matrix with four quadrants. Each factor-projectioncombination is described and thus, four scenarios are generated. Thecreation of a wild card as a fifth scenario is also possible.RELIABLE SCENARIOS THROUGHCOLLABORATIONOUR VALUES IN SHORTHolistic Scenario ManagementRecognize opportunities and risksto adapt your strategy Browser Add-on and App forfaster integration of relevantpieces of informationAutomated Reporting functions forfast communicationFully supported and trained by ourForesight expertsFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.deThe Consistency Analysis is a powerful tool for generating consistentand therefore, conclusive scenarios. The rating of consistencies can bedone collaboratively - by all relevant members of your organization.The calculated scenarios are visualized either as clusters or in a two orthree dimensional room.
Strategy ManagementFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Strategy ManagementFacing future challenges with agile strategiesWHAT IS STRATEGY MANAGEMENT?ANSOFF-MATRIXIs your strategy flexible enough for future challenges? We cannotMarket developmentcan help you to make your strategies so agile that you can deal withDiversificationcurrentMarketsnewpredict the future, even with the best foresight methods. However, wechanges and react quickly.Product developmentMarket penetrationProductscurrentnewThis is particularly relevant in VUCA environments (Volatile, Uncertain,Complex and Ambiguous) in which disruptions announce themselveswith signals that are difficult or impossible to detect, but which havemassive and unexpected effects due to systemic networking. ByOUR STRATEGY PROCESS1recognize the course of the future early on.DEFINE GOALS AND SCENARIOSDefine your goals with the GoalAssessment method and developappropriate scenarios.2DERIVING FIELDS OF ACTION ANDOPTIONS FOR ACTIONDerive suitable fields of action andtheir options.346THE IDEA: COMBINING STRATEGIESWITH SCENARIOSA strategy is a plan including a set of action measures designed tobring about a desired future or to prevent an unpleasant future fromCREATE STRATEGIESbecoming a reality. A strategy is selected to achieve a long-term orCreate and discuss different strategiesoverall aim. Our Strategy Management module offers various methodsin a team.to develop and stress-test your strategy. Therefore, it matches new orEVALUATE THE STRATEGIESexisting strategies with developed scenarios to test the future robust-Collaboratively evaluate the possibleness of each strategy. For this purpose, new or existing strategies arestrategies against the objectives andcompared with developed scenarios or goals and put into a temporalscenarios at different time intervals.5thinking about possible versions of the future today, you canDECIDEcontext. This allows you to deduce at which point in time which strategyis the most effective and when a strategy change must be initiated.Use different methods to decide whichstrategy is the best at what time.REPORTExport, share and publish your resultswith the click of a button.THE FORESIGHT STRATEGY COCKPITSTRATEGY MANAGEMENT MODULEOur Strategy Module combines all aspects of our approach in aweb-based analysis support system. The Foresight Strategy Cockpit(FSC) allows all users to integrate and share their knowledge andevaluate strategies and decision possibilities. Strategies can be
seamlessly linked with other insights. Furthermore, the moduleentails a range of established workshop methods, i.e. Backcasting,Visioning or Futures Workbench.DEFINE MULTIPLE STRATEGIES AT ONCEIn our Strategy Definition method, users can create a set of actionfields – areas in which their own organization operates – each includingattachments, tags and links to other entity types. Within an action field,several action options are created, to differentiate between all possibletactical measures. By combining action options of different actionfields, strategies are formed in a systematic and transparent way.TEST YOUR STRATEGIES IN DIFFERENTSCENARIOSInstead of relying on the future success of your strategy, evaluating theperformance of your strategy in different possible scenarios is morepromising. Let your teammates rate different strategy-scenario-combinations and finally find out the overall fragility and robustness of yourOUR VALUES IN SHORTCollaborative Strategy ManagementA set of established Workshop methods Browser Add-on and App forfaster integration of relevantpieces of informationAutomated Reporting functions forfast communicationFully supported and trained by ourForesight expertsFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.destrategies. Then start with the implementation of the strategies.
Real-Time DelphiFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Real-Time DelphiForesight and idea generation with expert knowledgeWHAT IS REAL-TIME DELPHI?REAL-TIME SURVEYRound 1The world today is more unpredictable and complex than ever before.Round 2Round 3Changes in politics, economics, technology, society and the environment are closely intertwined. Understanding and anticipating themTopic Arequires interdisciplinary and diverse expertise. To get a holistic pictureTopic Bof future developments, it is therefore useful to consult a large numberTopic Cof experts from different fields. With the help of the Real-Time Delphimethod it is possible to do this quickly and easily. Furthermore, theTopic Dmethod can be used to collect ideas and creative solutions.OUR REAL-TIME DELPHI PROCESS12345DEFINE RESEARCH DESIGNFormulate questions, create evaluationCOMBINING INDIVIDUAL KNOWLEDGE FORCONSENSUScriteria (optional).CHOOSE EXPERTSInvite experts to the RTD according tothe research design.Real-Time Delphi (RTD) is a further development of the previously usedround-based expert survey. Nowadays, a Real-Time Delphi is conducteddigitally and over a definable period. When answering the questionnaire, participants are confronted in real time with the consolidated votingPERFORM THE RTDStart RTD and query the findings andassessments of participants.REMIND PARTICIPANTSresults of the group. They are motivated to participate several times torevise their assessment of the group‘s opinion if necessary. Consensusbuilding, even on controversial issues, is encouraged and ultimatelysimplifies strategic decision-making processes.Remind participants of (multiple)participation and motivate them.EVALUATIONVisualise, evaluate and share resultswith relevant stakeholders.FORESIGHT STRATEGY COCKPITREAL-TIME DELPHIOur Real-Time Delphi has all the classic question types of socialresearch, from free text questions to matrix questions to drag & dropranking. Trends, risks, ideas, actors or technologies from existingforesight processes can also be evaluated, commented on anddiscussed concerning individual evaluation criteria. If required,participants can submit one self-assessment per question theirexpertise. This helps the subsequent evaluation and derivation ofstrategic measures. All information provided by participantsremains anonymous.
CONFIGURE QUESTIONNAIRES EASILYWith the Foresight Strategy Cockpit (FSC), the time required for settingup and evaluating extensive expert surveys can be reduced to a minimum. Participants can simply be imported into the system and invitedand reminded by e-mail. The questionnaire can be designed dynamically based on rules to ask specific questions in a targeted manner.Our RTD not only supports the evaluation of entities, but alsooffers participants the opportunity to write, evaluate and commenton arguments (Dynamic Argumentative Delphi).EVALUATION IN REAL-TIMEThe progress of a survey can be monitored in real-time at the FSC whileOUR VALUES IN SHORTFunctional Real-Time DelphiSimple setup and evaluationWide variety of question typesMeaningful analysis functionsIntegration of the results into furtherforesight processes Comprehensive support and trainingby our Foresight expertsFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.deit is still being carried out. A variety of meaningful visualisations areavailable for the interpretation of the results. A complete report can begenerated and exported with a few clicks. For demanding users, anexport in tabular form is available for further statistical processing.
Technology ManagementFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
Technology ManagementDetecting and monitoring technological developments at an early stageWHAT IS TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT?MONITORING RADARThe world is more unpredictable and complex than ever before, withTechnological maturityenormous changes in social, technological, economic, ecological andSearch area DSearch area Apolitical areas. Technologies have been one of the focus points in recentyears, as they have a massive impact on the everyday life and strategicTechnological maturityTechnological maturityorientation of companies. Search area CSearch area BDevelopment cycles of new technologies are becoming shorter andTechnological maturityshorter. To be able to identify and assess future technologies andtheir effects at an early stage, more than purely technical expertise isOUR TECHNOLOGY PROCESS12systems and the resonance of users and media must be identified andIDENTIFY TECHNOLOGY FIELDSderive technologies.EVALUATEEvaluation and assessment oftechnologies with internal and externalANALYSE STAKEHOLDERConduct market analysis and identifystake holders and start-ups and assignthem to technologies.45DESIGN TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPDesign a technology roadmap and linkit to resources and markets.THE IDEA: DATA AND EXPERT DRIVENThe core of any technology management process is the interaction between experts and data. However, the term expert is often defined toonarrowly. In the sense of holistic technology management, each unitof a company has valuable insights that need to be shared, and aboveall, data that supports them. Instead of working in data silos, data andexpertise must be exchanged and systematically combined. Accordingly, we have developed a software- and data-driven concept in which theForesight Strategy Cockpit is at the centre.MONITORINGObserve and analyse technologicaldevelopments and stakeholders/start-ups.6taken into account.Determine fields of technology andexperts.3required. Rather, socio-cultural factors, market characteristics, politicalFORESIGHT STRATEGY COCKPITTECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT MODULEADAPTUpdate and adapt the technologyroadmap.The Foresight Strategy Cockpit (FSC) combines the entire technology management process in a web-based software. It enables users tointegrate and share their expertise, evaluate developments and createpatterns by linking insights. Furthermore, the FSC has an indicator andpatent database and access to monitoring for real-time monitoring oftechnological developments.
COLLABORATIVE TECHNOLOGYMANAGEMENTWith the FSC, the effort to analyse technological developments is reduced to a minimum. Through a holistic combination of qualitative information, external expert knowledge and data-based findings, each unitof an organisation can jointly contribute to the evaluation of relevanttechnology trends and their developments. At the push of a button, allfindings can be exported as finished reports (as .docx or .pdf).DATA DRIVEN SCOUTING & MONITORINGIn addition to human expertise, data is the foundation for trackingtechnological developments. For this purpose, the FSC offers access toindicators, patents and monitoring, to be able to observe the development of technologies in real-time at an early stage. All the informationOUR VALUES IN SHORTCollaborative analysis oftechnological developmentsAccess to indicators andpatent databaseBrowser Add-on and App forfaster integration of relevantpieces of informationReal-time technology monitoringAutomated report functions for fastcommunication Comprehensive support and trainingby our Foresight expertsFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.deobtained can be interlinked and harmonised.
4strat GmbHExpert- and data-driven StrategyForesight Tools and Services.Torellstraße 110243 BerlinTelephone 49 (0) 30 555 7400 30Fax 49 (0) 30 555 7400 55info@4strat.dewww.4strat.deFor more information visit our website at www.4strat.de
The Foresight Strategy Cockpit Trend Module combines all aspects of our approach in a web-based analysis support system. The Cockpit allows all users to integrate and share their knowledge, evaluate developments and create patterns by linking insights together. Furthermore, the Foresight Strategy Cockpit (FSC) entails an FOCAL ISSUE
