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PRESIDENTIALPREVIEWThe Battle for 1600Pennsylvania AvePresidential Preview The Battle for 1600 Pennsylvania Ave 1

With a raging, global COVID-19 pandemic, the US death toll from which has alreadytopped 228,000, with more than 8 million infected, and a domestic economy contractingat an historic rate, the evidence, includingthe most recent polling, suggests that if theRCP Poll AveragesA new 2 trillion stimulus packagePresidentJob ApprovalTrump’s first term, he will likelyNovember election remains a referendumonTrumpPresidentApprove44.6A public health insurance optionDisapprove53.3lose his bid for re-election. However, President Trump has a possiblepath to victory in theDisapprove 8.7Biden’s 2 trillion climate planGeneralElection:Trumpvs. BidenElectoral College but would have to drawaninsidestraight.Key Presidential Battleground72%21%67%25%66%26%BidenTrumpA national mask mandate50.842.939%59%Indeed,current polling indicates that, if the electionwere held“Does it really matter who wins the presidential election?”Biden 7.9Biden is near the 270 electoral votes he needsVoters, 2000-2020to55%win election. No vaccine nor stimulus check40%will emerge Directionbefore of CountryRight Direction30.7Raisingthe corporate3taxratethe Novemberelectionthat will materially affect the way theWrong Track62.490%48%46%President’s handling of the pandemic is perceived by the public atWrong Track 31.780%Frackingthis point. For better or worse, opinions about the candidates are2020 Generic Congressional Vote42%44%largely formed and hardened and it’s unlikely that many alreadyDemocrats49.6A national coronavirus vaccine mandate60%Republicans43.0committed voters will change their %Safe/likely BidenBattlegrounds226 EEVSafe/likely Trump187 EEV125 EEVPercentReally matters who winsThings will be pretty much the sameDemocrats n yearQuestion text: “As far as making progress on the important issues facingthe country is concerned, does it really matter who wins the presidentialelection, or will things be pretty much the same regardless of who isTop Battlegrounds: Trump vs. Bidenelected president?”RCP AverageDateBiden (D)Trump (R)Via Pew Research CenterTop Battlegrounds10/2849.445.6Biden 3field confessional and potentiallyclean the slate.FloridaOct. 28th47.8 National polling48.2Trump E-ALINKSMNNHMOMTDay. At the Battleground level,for Florida,ViceMichiganOct.except28th50.6 the former 41.9SCUTWisconsinVAVia the Wall Street JournalAmericans’ intensity about this election is at record levels. We’veseen early voting totals eclipse past levels with seven days to gobefore election day. Hawai i is among several states on pace tosurpass its 2016 total turnout in early voting before election day. Yesthe pandemic has changed voter behavior but consider this: Prior tothe 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, just 50%of the voters thought that it really mattered who won versus 44%who thought that things would be pretty much the same whoeverwon. This year, a record 83%—including 85% of Democrats, 86% ofRepublicans—say that who wins really matters.has consistently had Biden outsideof error since LaborPennsylvaniaOct. 28ththe margin49.645.8President is up, but not as big as nationally.It is fair to say that Presidential polling in the 2020 race suffers fromthe sins of its father. The failures of Presidential polling in 2016have shaken the public’s confidence. It is also fair to say, calling itcorrectly, as polling did in the 2018 midterm, will serve as a battleBiden 3Biden 843.4Biden 7.NorthCarolinaOct. 28th48.7College, whose48.0Recentpolling by the New YorkTimes and SienaBiden 0Oct. 28th51.2ArizonaOct. 28thvociferously48.6questioned, 46.2methodology the Trump campaignindicates that a seeming majority of voters now prefer Vice PresidentBiden’s policy positions over those of the President on almost allmajor issues. Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump on whom theytrust to lead on the COVID-19 pandemic, and 6 point lead overWhat the data from 2020 tells us is that there is every reason toexpect a record turnout in 2020. The American voter is restless. Ifthese numbers hold, one could argue that 2018 provided a previewwhen the turnout in the midterm elections was the highest since1914, even though Republicans were less mobilized than Democrats,a difference unlikely to be repeated this year.The NumbersSpreadTrump on whom they trust to choose Supreme Court justices andmaintain law and order. By 20 points, Biden is seen as more capablethan Trump of uniting the country.Even on the President’s signature issue, the management of theeconomy, the issue on which the President hoped and expected torun for re-election, voters are now evenly split on which candidatePresidential Preview The Battle for 1600 Pennsylvania Ave 2Biden 2

20%10%200020042008201220162020Election yearThe Path ForwardTop Battlegrounds: Trump vs. BidenRCP AverageDateBiden (D)Trump (R)Spread10/2849.445.6Biden 3.8FloridaOct. 28th47.848.2Trump 0.4PennsylvaniaOct. 28th49.645.8Biden 3.8MichiganOct. 28th50.641.9Biden 8.7WisconsinOct. 28th51.243.4Biden 7.8North CarolinaOct. 28th48.748.0Biden 0.7ArizonaOct. 28th48.646.2Biden 2.4Top BattlegroundsVia Real Clear Politicsthey trust more to manage the economy. Trump enjoyed a lead onthis issue outside of the margin of error in the September edition ofthis poll.Polling also reveals that key segments of the electorate, particularlywomen, minorities and white voters with college degrees, now havea very unfavorable impression of the President and they appear tobe rejecting the President’s efforts to frame Vice President Biden anunacceptable alternative. The President has seen modest growthamongst Black and Latinx men this cycle which could prove pivotal ifTexas does truly come into play.The second and final presidential debate was a more routine affair,when compared to the fireworks in the first, but there is no evidencethat in the polling to suggest that the debate changed many minds.Nor is there evidence the President’s efforts to spark a furor overunsubstantiated claims about Hunter Biden’s international work withquestionable circumstances has made a substantial impact. Andwhile there still could be a very late October surprise, be it a foreignpolicy breakthrough or a COVID-19 remedy, it is rather late-stagein the cycle for any such development to reconfigure the race andmaterially enhance the President’s re-election prospects. Thisis true even before you consider the massive early voting acrossthe country.The final days of the campaign will show the President energizedin a twofold effort to highlight Biden’s seemingly subdued publiccalendar as an indication of his “sleepiness” and appeal to his basesupporters. He’ll attempt to do it as he did in 2016, with mass rallies.The Trump campaign’s hope and expectation is that their turnout instates like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolinaand Ohio, largely on election day, will be enough to provide himwith the votes he needs to win those states narrowly and retain hisElectoral College majority.The map on the next page shows the voters the President istargeting. The dark red shows a 30% growth in the GOP vote marginfrom Romney in 2012 to Trump in 2016. A region of the country oncethought to be a Democratic stronghold saw a populist economicmessage and a promise to shake up the Washington establishmentas reason enough to back his brand of the Grand Old Party and not,now Senator, Romney’s.Because the President appears to face an uphill battle in winning areferendum on his COVID-19 pandemic response, to have a realisticchance of winning re-election, his campaign’s strategy appears to beto make this election a choice between himself and Vice PresidentElectoral CollegeChance of winningElection DayElection DayJoe Biden leads Donald Trump among most groups, and Mr.Biden is notably ahead among voters age 45 and older, whotypically lean Republican.Total (n 287)50%41% 9 BidenGenderMen (483)42%48% 6 TrumpWomen (494)58%35% 23 Biden18-19 (111)58%30% 28 Biden30-44 (169)47%39% 8 Biden45-64 (349)49%46% 3 Biden65 (327)51%41% 10 Biden50% 6 Trump22% 44 BidenAgeRaceWhite (675)44%Nonwhite (274)66%PartyDem. (350)93%Rep. (289)Ind./Other (311)46% 89 Biden91% 84 Trump37% 9 BidenBased on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 987 likely voters in theUnited States from Oct 15. to 18.Via the New York TimesVia Decision Desk HQBiden, and to make a compelling case that Vice President Biden isnot fit, and/or too far left ideologically for the average American, toserve as President of the United States. As a result, the President’sattacks on Vice President Biden’s mental acuity and ethics, andthe claim that Biden is a puppet or captive of the progressive/socialist wing of the Democratic party, have continued, indeed haveintensified, as the election has approached.The President must capture the magic he found on election dayin 2016. He cannot afford to lose his foothold in the Great Lakesand Rust Belt if he is to win the White House. Were he to stumblein Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas or Arizona, the path tore-election grows significantly tighter. Texas and Georgia, whileshifting may not be there yet, however Arizona is cause for concernfor the President’s campaign. The state has been trending towardsthe Democrats but has yet to break through at the Presidential level.Since 2016 the state has seen a 5% growth in population and thatgrowth has primarily been in the minority communities.Biden, if polling is to believed, enjoys more paths to 270 than thePresident. Most of them require holding the states Clinton wonin 2016. The Vice President happens to enjoy a 5 point or greaterPresidential Preview The Battle for 1600 Pennsylvania Ave 3