Transcription
Corvelle Consulting4/27/2018Yogi SchulzBiography Founder at Corvelle ConsultingPredictive Analyticsfor Oil & Gas Event Name Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion1 Information technology related management consulting ITWorld Canada columnist & CBC Radio guest Former PPDM Association board member Industry presenter:– Project World - 6 years– PMI – SAC - 10 years– PMI - Information Systems SIG - 2 years– PPDM Association - many yearsCorvelle Drives Concepts to Completion2PresentationOutlineLearning Outcomes Predictive Analytics Understand predictive analytics Upstream oil & gas industry use cases:– Reducing exploration risk– Creating development scenarios– Controlling drilling & completion costs– Improving production operations– Evaluating acquisition & divestiture opportunities Explore how predictive analytics addstangible value in oil & gas industry Recommendations DiscussionCorvelle Drives Concepts to Completion3Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion4Definition: Predictive AnalyticsHistorical Current Futuredatadataforecast Predictive analytics encompasses a variety of statisticaltechniques such as predictive modeling, machine learning,and data mining to analyze current and historical facts tomake predictions about future or unknown events Predictive analytics exploits patterns found in historical andtransactional data to identify risks and opportunitiesPREDICTIVE ANALYTICSCorvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionPredictive Analytics for Oil & Gas5Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion61
Corvelle Consulting4/27/2018Predictive Analytics are SuperiorPredictive Analytics Value ChainQualityDataBusinessRulesCorvelle Drives Concepts to alue-basedDecisionsCorvelle Drives Concepts to Completion8Upstream oil & gas industryuse caseREDUCING EXPLORATION RISK“Why the change? Well, I could seewhere the future was going . . .”Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion9Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion10Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion11Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion12Predictive Analytics for Oil & Gas2
Corvelle Consulting4/27/2018Go out to the fieldFind some oil & gasDrill a deep holeCorvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionYou may haveover-simplified ourexploration programsomewhat.13Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion14Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion15Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion16Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion17Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion18Upstream oil & gas industryuse caseCREATING DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOSPredictive Analytics for Oil & Gas3
Corvelle Consulting4/27/2018“I collected optimistic seismic data,placed it in the context of shaky well logs,and seasoned it with a wild permeability estimate . . . ”“. . . added herd instinct,a pinch of price bias . . .and here’s your drilling plan.”Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion19Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion20Upstream oil & gas industryuse caseCONTROLLING DRILLING & COMPLETION COSTSCorvelle Drives Concepts to Completion21Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion22Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion23Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion24Predictive Analytics for Oil & Gas4
Corvelle ConsultingWhere’sSam the robotgoing now?4/27/2018His artificial intelligenceis increasing in power.He’s becomingan autonomous robot!At the moment,he’s trying to flirtwith a vending machine!I dunno.I’ve lost controlover him!Corvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionThere’salways moreto learn.25Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion26Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion27Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion28Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion29Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion30Upstreamoil & gas industryuse caseIMPROVING PRODUCTION OPERATIONSPredictive Analytics for Oil & Gas5
Corvelle Consulting4/27/2018SAGD - Oil, Water and Steam Analysis“Let’s say you want to add a million BOEto your production forecast,. . . You just push this button here.”Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion31Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion3233Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion34Upstream oil & gas industryuse caseEVALUATING ACQUISITION & DIVESTITUREOPPORTUNITIESCorvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionYou need a dashboardto track your keyproducing assetperformance metrics. That way you’ll havemore data to ignorewhen you makeacquisition decisionsbased on companypolitics!Corvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionPredictive Analytics for Oil & Gas35Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion366
Corvelle Consulting4/27/2018ConclusionsRecommendations Communicate predictive analytics benefits Use predictive analytics software to:– Improve communication– Increase return on assets– Reduce the risk of unprofitableinvestments Various datastores organize oil & gas data Data analytics software summarizes vast data volumes Predictive analytics software identifies insights in data Analytics software is vastly superior to ExcelCorvelle Drives Concepts to Completion37Corvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionQuestions & Discussion38Predictive Analytics for Oil & GasYogi SchulzPleasefill outevaluationformCorvelle Consulting300, 400 - 5 Ave. S. W.Calgary, Alberta T2P 0L6Phone: (403) 860-5348E-mail: YogiSchulz@corvelle.comWeb: www.corvelle.comCan you help usimprove ourPredictive Analytics?Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion39Founder at Corvelle ConsultingInformation technology relatedmanagement consultingITWorld Canada columnistIndustry presenterPPDM Association memberCorvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionCorvelle Bibliography-140Corvelle Bibliography-2 Analytics time has come, so learn how your business can unlock the value Do you need big data big results?– alue/394348 Analytics trends for 2016 How Project Management is Shaping the Future Of Visual Analytics Big data is useless without visual analytics Is data modelling really dead? Is your company data-driven? What data can’t be expected to do Why you need visual analytics The winning business case for business intelligence– -shaping-the-future-of-visual-analytics/– /– ess-without-visual-analytics/386943 Business Intelligence – experiencing more hype than value? Business value of data modeling Can visual analytics be the savior of the oil and gas industry?– e-expected-to-do/389498– f-data-modeling/380574– he-savior-of-the-oil-and-gas-industry/Channeling the cynicism of BI practitioners– ynicism-of-bi-practitioners/389882Corvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionPredictive Analytics for Oil & Gas– ead/– data-driven/385732– riencing-more-hype-than-value/ – ig-results/41– d-canada/why-you-need-visual-analytics/– e Drives Concepts to Completion427
Corvelle Consulting4/27/2018Bibliography-1 The Evolution of Analytics Predictive Analytics Takes a Victory Lap– Opportunities and Challenges for Machine Learning in Business– Patrick Hall, Wen Phan, and Katie Whitson, O’Reilly– https://www.sas.com/content/dam/SAS/en df Stop Using Excel, Finance Chiefs Tell Staffs 10 Things I Hate About Subsurface Data Management Uncertainty Considerations for Development Planning Type Curves VisualBI– Tatyana Shumsky, WSJ, November 22, 2017– nce-chiefs-tell-staffs-1511346601– Coy Dean, June 11, 2015– bsurface-data-management-coy-dean/Here is How Big Data is changing the Oil Industry– Deena Zaidi, October 4, 2017– ere-is-how-big-data-is-changing-the-oil-industry-1 – William Vorhies, October 10, 2017– redictive-analytics-takes-a-victory-lapExxonMobil VP Stresses Value Of Geophysical Data– Velda Addison, Senior Editor, Digital News Group Hart Energy September 28, 2017– -geophysical-data-1660357 Bibliography-2– SPE Workshop, September 26, 2017– -Type-Curves.pdfMergers and Acquisitions for 2014– Nate Richards, November 26, 2013– rs-acquisitions-decrease-integration/– ds/Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion43Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion44Analytics Maturity Models Analytics Landscape INFORMS Analytics Maturity Model IT Score Overview for BI and Analytics A maturity model for big data and analytics Talent Analytics Maturity Model TDWI Analytics Maturity Model and Assessment Tool– Jean Francois Puget, 21 September 2015– /jfp/entry/Analytics Models?lang en– Determine how well your organization uses business analytics to improve performance– https://analyticsmaturity.informs.org/?cm mc uid 53679767957115055687159&cm mc sid 50200000 1505568715– Cindi Howson, Alan D. Duncan, 24 September 2015, Gartner– ew-bi-analytics– Chris Nott, 26 May 2015, Client Technical Leader, IBM UK Ltd.– ig-data-and-analytics– http://www.bersin.com/Lexicon/details.aspx?id 15302– How mature is your analytics program?– https://tdwi.org/AMM?cm mc uid 53679767957115055687159&cm mc sid 50200000 1505568715Corvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionPredictive Analytics for Oil & Gas458
Predictive analytics software identifies insights in data Analytics software is vastly superior to Excel 37 Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion Recommendations Communicate predictive analytics benefits Use predictive analytics software to: -Improve communication -Increase return on assets -Reduce the risk of unprofitable investments 38
