Jamin Heller, Moderator Stan Heller, Presenter - VectorVest

Transcription

Jamin Heller, ModeratorStan Heller, Presenter

Questions? Comments.

Purpose for these monthly Forums: Further your knowledge of the VectorVest System. To share current ideas and strategies for making money and protecting wealth. To create opportunities to interact and share ideas with other members of our VectorVestcommunity. To promote the meetings and activities of our VectorVest Canada User Groups. To provide a forum for VectorVest Investors who do not live near a User Group Community.

Welcome and Purpose of Meeting (5 min.)The 7-Minute Market Forecast (15 min.)User Group News Meetings This Month (5 min.) Energy Sector Spotlight - Michael Wuetherick, industry insider and Red Deer User Group Leader (15min) Industry Group Reports Banks (Investment) – Marcia Elgie and Emanuel Althuis, Kelowna User Group Members Business Services (Misc.) – Sandy Cook, Kelowna User Group Leader **Member Presentations** (30 min.) Simplify Your Trading Using the 3-EMA and 8-EMA – Petra Hess, Burlington User Group Leader Portfolio Management Simplified Using WatchList Graphs – Mike Simonato, Toronto MemberTrending Stocks Spotlight (30 min.) Game Changers - Fundamental and Technical Characteristics of CA and U.S. stocks before they went on to achieve monster gains.ADJOURN – 12:30 ET

Review: Home Page and Views - Insights and Strategy – CA and US Analysis of the Market Timing Graph Market Climate This week’s Special Presentation

User GroupMeetingNoticesFor more information includingagendas, maps and drivingdirections, go to:1. VectorVest Views2. Any Friday3. User Group Section

Member Presentations Energy Sector Spotlight - Michael Wuetherick, industry insider and Red DeerUser Group Leader Industry Group Reports Banks (Investment) – Marcia Eggli and Emanuel Althuis, Kelowna User GroupMembers Business Services (Misc.) – Sandy Cook, Kelowna User Group Leader

Sector Spotlight– Brent and WTI MarketsJuly 2014 Energy prices began tofallNovember 2014: OPEC “marketcapture” policy and afast rising US accelerated pricedeclineDecember 2015: What will OPEC doabout supplyquota’s will itmatter?

Sector Spotlight– US Shale Basins Changing the Game!Major USA Shale Plays Technology has led to rapid productiongrowth throughout North AmericaPermian Shale players in the US have added 5 mmbbl/d oflight crude and 20 bcf/d of natural gas since 2010 New US Shale output exceeds Canada’s currentdaily production of 3.8 mmbbl/d and 11 bcf/dBakkenNiobraraYr/Yr Mbpd % ChangePermian 250 7Bakken-33-3%Niobrara 90 18%

Sector Spotlight– Drilling Deeper, Cheaper and FasterSaskatchewan BakkenTexas - PermianNorth Dakota Bakken

Sector Spotlight– Rig Efficiency vs. Rig Count Current rig counts are down significantly since July 2014 doesn’t that mean prices will be going ull.pdf Increased efficiency and optimization has increased the impact of one rig TEN FOLD in only a couple of years The “tap” can and will be turned on very quickly as economics dictates in these massive shale plays

Normal Inventory LevelsSector Spotlight– What are the Crude Futures Suggesting?Backwardation: Spot prices are higher thanfuture pricesContango: Spot prices are lower than futureprices Signals a shortage of supply Indication of a supply glut Prices increase if storage falls,and falls if storage rises Record high storage signals possibleprice collapseJan.12, 2014Dec.2, 2015Contango currently exceeds the cost of storage so oil is being stuffed anywhere .literally a licence to print moneyFree Source for Crude Futures: http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Crude Oil Futures/CL?search CL*

Sector Spotlight– US and Global Demand ScenarioGlobal petroleum storage is currently over 3 Billion bbls .US inventory hasn’t been this high since 1930US Crude stocks are SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE HISTORICAL RANGE .what does that tell us about future prices?

Sector Spotlight– Super Contango Approaching?Nov 2014– Oil at 80/bblOPEC ramps up supply,Contango sets inJune 2014 – Oil at 100/bblMarket backwardationstarted to break-downDec 2015 – Oil at 40/bblContango widening,suggesting prices will golower if storage fills to limitPro’s watch the futures spread when investing .it will help you stay on the right side of the trade also!

Sector Spotlight – Energy is a Fast Money Market% WinningTradesAvg. Daily%Gain% LosingTradesAvg. Daily%LossXEG above SMA(5)75.5%0.91%24.5%-0.15%XEG below SMA(5)25.4%0.15%74.7%-0.94%XEG above SMA(20)61.6%0.62%38.4%-0.82%XEG below SMA(20)36.7%-0.27%63.3%-0.94%XEG above SMA(40)56.5%0.54%43.5%-0.33%XEG below SMA(40)43.1%0.51%56.8%-0.776Short-Term TradersMedium-Term TradersLong-Term Traders(Based on statistical analysis of closing data from June 1, 2010 through December 2, 2015) Energy is a VERY fast moneymarket and is heavily tradedby high-frequency traders History shows trading off a 5day SMA cross-over signalgives you a 75% chance ofwinning!!

Sector Spotlight– Stan’s Gold Digger .modified!! Use this simple strategy based on Gold Digger and Energy Stocks to create Energy Digger!Use RT ASCENDING sort to bringthe most beaten up stocks to thetop Simple Energy Trading Plan: BUY WHEN XEG SMA(5) Sell when XEG SMA(5) or target gain is reachedOnly buy stocks you can shortwhen the trend ends these samestocks will be great shortcandidates!

Sector Spotlight– When to go long? .play the odds!1Stochasticsshowing bearishdivergence .caution advised!32

Sector Spotlight– Energy Digger Quicktest #1Entry signal onXEG closing aboveits SMA(5)Confirmed byover-soldStochastics, andrising RT

Sector Spotlight– Energy Digger Quicktest #2Entry signal onXEG closing aboveits SMA(5)Confirmed byover-soldStochastics, andrising RT

Sector Spotlight– Energy Digger Quicktest #3Entry signal onXEG closing aboveits SMA(5)Confirmed byover-soldStochastics, andrising RT

Sector Spotlight– Where is the safest place to invest?Canadian Industry Group Price Delta: July 1, 2014 – CurrentBEARISH TREND Institutions will “hide-out” in pipelines infrastructure firms as their operating margins are less exposed to crude prices Only the highest quality, shale focused, under-leveraged producing companies will retain investor support If you must own the producers do your homework and buy high quality, well financed companies with large landpositions in major shale-oil plays Avoid Drillers and service as operating margins are compressed to zero .or lower.

Sector Spotlight– The Canadian Energy Sector and You!! Energy is the 2nd highest contributorto the Canadian GDP Real estate services is #1 in 2015 Estimated 2015 Revenue of 90.5 B Generates 8.3B in royalties forgovernments, and pays 4.8 B todebt holders and banks Capital expenditures of 38.6 Bon drilling, completions andinfrastructure spending Operating expenses of 46.3 Bmostly on infrastructure fees,maintenance, power, fuel, taxesand labour

Questions?

Vector Vest Canada ForumBanksSimple steps to find stocks in the Banks (Investment)Industry Group:1. In VectorVest 7 open Viewers.2. Then open sector viewer.3. Right click on Bank.4. Click on view industries in business sector.5. Right click on Banks (Investment).6. Click on view stocks in industry group.

Vector Vest Canada Forum - Banks

Vector Vest Canada Forum - Banks

Vector Vest Canada Forum - Banks

Vector Vest Canada Forum - Banks

Vector Vest Canada Forum - BanksTickerMarketP/ECapForwardQuarterlyP/EDividend ( 44.62%

Vector Vest Canada Forum - Banks

Vector Vest Canada Forum - Banks

Vector Vest Canada Forum - Banks5 Year % change 2010 to 2015 annualizedBank 92%Average8.61%0.37%

Vector Vest Canada Forum – Industry AnalysisBusiness Services (Misc)BUSINESS SERVICES (MISC)1. 47 STOCKS2. 20 LISTED ON THE TSX; 27 ON THE VENTURE3. STOCKS FROM: Consulting Services – engineering, architecture, accounting, planning, human resources Merchant Banking Software Solutions Waste Management Commercial Laundry Document Shredding Owner of TSX, Venture and its derivatives markets Technology for transportation, TV, Radio, agriculture, education, surveying, health care,payment solutions, digital storage, carbon capture, air testing, Supply of camps and catering to northern and remote regions4. ODD BALLS:TES – mineral exploration in ColumbiaWJX – Distribution and Service of parts for mobile equipment - mining, oil and Gas, etc.NEH – acquiring oil and gas properties in Wyoming

Vector Vest Canada Forum – Business Svc (Misc)

Questions?

SIMPLIFY YOURTRADINGUSING THE3 EMA and 8EMA

Using the 3 EMA and 8 EMA on the dailyand weekly charts of your stocks can giveyou very simple rules to get in and out. I firstused this only on daily charts but then foundit was very effective on weekly charts whenI began studying my longer term positions.This was the start of the BurlingtonModel Portfolio. I was looking for somethingthat could be managed with the end of dayprogram.

The rules are very EASY to follow. Youbuy when the 3 EMA crosses over the8 EMA with air or space and we sellwhen the 3 EMA crosses below the 8EMA with air or space. The 2 justtouching together is not a signal.

We need tosee someair orspace notjust atouch.

Waiting for theair or spaceincreases thechances oftrenddeveloping .

We sell whenthe 3 EMAcrossesbelow the 8EMA withspace or air.

This is a very simple effective way totrade if you follow your rules. You cannotscan for the 3 EMA / 8 EMA cross inVector Vest but you can set up a 4 EMAover 9 EMA scan that is very close. I havefound that if you set up the graph withjust the EMA’s showing you can gothrough lists of stocks very quickly.

If you have anyquestions pleaseE-mail mephess@cogeco.ca

Questions?

Portfolio Management Simplified Using WatchList Graphsby Mike Simonato, Toronto MemberOBJECTIVE:Mike’s strategy was designed to find great companies, do less trading and spend less time managing his portfolio. Toaccomplish this, he cherry picks great stocks and monitors them using the WatchList Viewer and WatchList Graph.Stock Selection:Mike suggests cherry picking stocks from your favourite searches. Look for stocks that have the strongest EPS and CI(Comfort Index), as well as a strong Earnings Growth Rate (GRT). Three searches he likes to cherry pick from are:1. Prudent (Prudent Folder)2. Best New Highs/BMB (Bear Mkt Beater Folder) 3. Mike Simonato’s Options Search

Portfolio Management Simplified Using WatchList Graphsby Mike Simonato, Toronto Member2-Year Weekly Graph

Portfolio Management Simplified Using WatchList Graphsby Mike Simonato, Toronto Member2-Year Weekly Graph

Portfolio Management Simplified Using WatchList Graphsby Mike Simonato, Toronto Member2-Year Weekly Graph

Portfolio Management Simplified Using WatchList Graphsby Mike Simonato, Toronto MemberMonitor Your WatchList Weekly1. Check your WatchList Graph andlook for VectorVest’s four warningsigns, just as you do on individualstocks. Ensure EPS is still rising andCI above 1.0.2. If WatchList Viewer, if Average RT isfalling and nearing 1.0, considerselling your weakest RT stock.Replace with a stock that has arising RT that is greater than theWatchList average.3. If the Average RS is falling andapproaching 1.20, consider sellingyour weakest RS stocks to raise theaverage. Same for RV, VST and CI.4. Buy replacement stocks only whenmarket is rising, and buy on thedips.

Questions?

Game ChangersFundamental and Technical Characteristics of CA and U.S. stocksbefore they went on to achieve monster gains.Game Changers – Your ability to find and add one or two of these big winners to your portfolio can transform yourinvesting results. The market ebbs and flows, but giant gains are always possible.But how do we find these Game Changers before they run out of steam? First, we have to know what one lookslike. What were the fundamentals? What were the technical clues? So we start by studying past big winners.And we read and re-read the classic little green book, Stocks, Strategies & Common Sense, written by ourFounder, Dr. Bart DiLiddo.

Game ChangersFundamental and Technical Characteristics of CA and U.S. stocksbefore they went on to achieve monster gains.About Game Changers – Excerpts from Stocks Strategies & Common SenseReally good stocks usually don’t look back once they have started moving upward. Witness the hundreds of stocks that have doubled and tripledover the last few years with nary a downturn. Think about the tremendous advantage you have when you know how to value stocks.Good portfolio management starts with selecting the right stocks. Just as major league scouts look for the best talent for their teams, investorsshould select the best stocks for their portfolios. This may sound like motherhood and apple pie, but the type of stocks you buy will dictate themanner in which you must manage your portfolio.Teeny Boppers remind me of teenagers. They are full of energy, vigor and ambition. They have new ideas and different ways of doing things. Theyrepresent the wave of the future, but are untested. They’re risky and many fail to fulfill their promise. But, many succeed. When they do, theybecome our new leaders. Iomega was a classic Teeny Bopper. .which went from a split adjusted 1.69 to 66, up a fantastic 3,800 percent.(Iomega was the creator in 1994 of the Zip Drive, a removable floppy disk that revolutionized computer file portability). How did I find thesestocks? The same way I find similar stocks today. I was tracking stocks that were hitting new 52-week highs and ranking them according to acertain system I have. These stocks are screaming for attention. They’re telling us that something significant, good or bad, is happening. We oughtto be able to take advantage of these situations.Here’s how to find the next Iomega.

Game ChangersFundamental and Technical Characteristics of CA and U.S. stocksbefore they went on to achieve monster gains.About Game Changers – What qualities should we look for?1.Stocks that are rising week after week, and hitting a new 52-week high.2.Stocks that are breaking out of a flatline or consolidation with large spikes in weekly volume.3.Exceptional EPS growth, rising all the way to the right edge of our graph.4.A company that is its industry leader, and is revolutionizing a major new trend.5.Its product or service is in big demand.Where do we find them?1.WatchList Viewer – Special WatchList Folder – Best New Highs2.UniSearch – Best New Highs/BMB; Teeny Boppers; Delta Stocks

Game Changers

Game Changers

Game ChangersFundamental and Technical Characteristics of CA and U.S. stocksbefore they went on to achieve monster gains.Other Game Changers - USYou Tell Me – Which stock do you think is our next Game Changer?1.PCLN - PricelineEmail: stan.heller@vectorvest.ca2.COST – Costco3.GMCR – Green Mtn Coffee Roasters4.ILMN – IlluminaOther Game Changers - CA1.SJ – Stella-Jones2.ATD.B – Alimentation Couche-Tard3.CSU – Constellation Software4.DOL - Dollarama

Q&A

The Month Ahead!Merry Christmas!

Thanks for attending!Comments, Questions, Stock Ideas and What’s Working for You:E-mail: stan.heller@vectorvest.caNext Meeting: January 2nd @ 11:00 AM ETViews/UserGroups/Canada Online User Group Forum

Further your knowledge of the VectorVest System. . Pro’s watch the futures spread when investing .it will help you stay on the right side of the trade also! . Mike Simonato’sOptions Search. Portfolio Management Simplified Us