TIBCO Spotfire Analytics For Energy

Transcription

TIBCO Spotfire Analytics for EnergyMICHAEL O’CONNELL, PhDSr Director, AnalyticsTIBCO Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved.

Outline Introductions & Spotfire Basics Production demonstration Predictive Analytics Upstream exploratory – multiple use cases ESRI Integration Portfolio optimization Forecasting (time series) Sales & marketing Health & safety Social and mobile Tibbr and collaborative computing iPad Wrap up and questions Deployment approaches Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Key Components of 21st Century PlatformAutomation MessagingSOABPMMDMEventProcessing Events/CEP Rules In-memoryAnalyticsCloud Visual Analysis Data Discovery Statistics Private/hybridCloud Platform Apps DeploymentOption Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.Social EnterpriseSocial Media Collaboration

Spotfire Areas of FocusDimension-FreeData Exploration Visual Interactive No ConstraintsEnterpriseClassPredictive &Event DrivenData Mashup Data at Rest &Data In Motion Open Source &3rd Party “Two SecondAdvantage” Combine Data Sources No Scripting IT-FreeContextualCollaboration UnmatchedPerformance MassiveScalability 24x7Expertise Bookmarks Guided Apps Portals & Social Platforms Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

TIBCO Industry AnalyticsDataPredictive AnalyticsAnalytic SolutionsEnergyBehavior[Real-time] Exploration, drilling analytics; asset recovery prediction Trading and financial analytics Portfolio optimizationFinance / Insurance Customer insight Risk management & Trading analytics Fraud and ComplianceAttributes[Customer]Consumer Goods & Retail Category/brand – value/share analysis & forecasting Market – product / price analytics, segmentation Execution – promotion effectivenessTelco, Media, NetworksContext /Facts Customer life-cycle management: social churn Mobile marketing & advertising Fraud detectionLife Sciences Research chemistry, biology Clinical development Post-marketing / Healthcare Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Modeling and Data Mining Supervised Learning Regression Ensembles – ForestsHierarchical and K-means clustering Identify segments in the space of X variablesAssociation Rules Identify associations e.g. between products, documentsSimulation and Optimization Fit a bunch of models and average (continuous) or vote (categorical)Data Mining – Unsupervised Learning Generalized linear models – discrete response (e.g. Poisson, binomial errors)Trees, Nets, SVM, Additive Models, Discriminant Functions, Nearest Neighbors, Linear / non-linear models - continuous response (Gaussian underlying errors)Monte Carlo methods and (linear) optimization (mixed integer)Unstructured Data Mining String matching e.g. bipartite graph algorithmNetwork analytics Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Predictive Analytics in EnergyPortfolio MgtPortfolioAnalytics ComponentsP10/P50/P90 EstimationEUR Predn; Decline/TypeGeospatial RegressionLand/Lease PotentialBusiness MixOperating WellsProfiling FraccsOil and ntal l Health & SafetySafetyWell Economics Non-linear modeling(exponential mixtures forrecovery estimation) Distribution and frequencyfunction estimation (eCDF):P10, P50, P90 Constrained resourceoptimization based on wellcharacteristics EUR models: effects ofextraction parameters andspatial regression Optimizing unconventionalplays Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.Real-Time A&D Analytics

Analytics Use Cases Decline / Type curves P10, P50, P90 PortfolioWell / pad optimizationSales and marketingHealth and safety analyticsText analysis Shape file import/exportCapital planning / portfolio optimization Kriging, loess/splines; completions analysis / optimizationESRI Integration Distributions: Log-normal, Weibull etc; Bootstrap (non-parametric)Geospatial regression Algorithms: Power law loss ratio, modified hyperbolic; sophisticated pre-processing / automation / over-ridesCorpus analysis / networksSocial and mobile applications Collaborative computing / iPad deployment and applications Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Arkoma Basin DataExtract from IHS EnerdeqProduction on 1300 wellsProduction data 2005-2010Completion information by frac Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Shale Gas Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#1. Decline/Type Curves: EUR Estimation Response Oil/gas production data across time Analysis Fit production decline and predict ultimate production Preprocess to remove outliers eg zero production days Backtest, report to SECModelArp’s equation: hyperbolicqt qi (1 bDi t) (-1/b)b reservoir decline exponentHyperbolic – exponentialTransition to exponential decline at user specified timeNew methods readily added via S /R scriptsPower law loss-ratio declineqt qi exp(-Dy t - Di t n)EUR via economic limit e.g. 1 mcf/d (0.03 10 3m 3/d) or time limitDy decline rate at infinite timeReferences: Ilk et al, SPE 114947, SPE 116731; Texas A&M Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Decline and Type Curves Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Decline and Type Curves Pre-processing Response Oil/gas production data across time Analysis Fit monotone smoothing spline (2 df) Assess median absolute deviation from smoothingspline and remove outliers from rest of pack at lowp-value eg 0.0001Process / Application Works well when large number of wells and/ornoisy data (eg zero production days) - most oftime!! Manual over-ride is built-in i.e. if user doesn’t likeautomated time point removal, can manually setthe points to be included in the decline curve fit Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Decline and Type Curves Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Decline and Type Curves Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#2. EUR P10, P50, P90 Estimation Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Oil and Gas Reserves: EUR P90, P50, P10 Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#3. Geospatial Regression Response Production, Environmental variables (groundwater) Explanatories Spatial locationsModel y f (x, b) e f : spatial regression, kriging, splines, loess packages : S spatial, R-fields Thin plate splines:yk f (x, k) ekmin y- f 2 l int f ‘‘(x)2 dxKriging:yk P(x, k) Z(x, k) ek Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Geospatial Regression Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Geospatial Regression Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#4. Integration with ESRI ArcMap Two way interactivity between TIBCO Spotfire and ArcMap Load data from an ArcMap project into TIBCO Spotfire Push a Map image from ArcMap into TIBCO Spotfire Interactivity between multiple concurrent TIBCO Spotfire and ArcMap sessions Re-establishment of the connectivity between previously integrated TIBCO Spotfireand ESRI ArcMap sessions with minimal user input Perform ad hoc analysis on spatial and tabular project data with immediatecorresponding display in ArcMap Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

ESRI-Spotfire Integration Data associated with“layers” Point (e.g. Cities, Wells) Polygon (e.g. Countries, FieldReservoirs) Attribute table associatedwith each layerSpotfireConnection Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Spotfire & ArcMap InteractivityAfter a connection has been set up,marking records in Spotfire will selectthe corresponding features in ArcMap Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Spotfire & ArcMap InteractivityCorrespondingly, selecting features inArcMap will mark the matchingrecords in Spotfire Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Push a Map image from ArcMap to SpotfireThe extension also allows a MapChart plot to be added tothe Spotfire session with background taken from theArcMap sessionThe MapChart background can beexported either as a shape file for theselected layer or as a raster image basedon what is currently displayed in ArcMap Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Spotfire – OpenSpirit Integration Publish OpenSpirit Scan Utility Publish all G&G spatial data to GISrepository (and keep it synchronized) Interact with Desktop OpenSpirit ArcGIS Extension Use ArcMap as a data selector andviewer to interact with G&G data andother OpenSpirit enabled apps Interact with Web OpenSpirit Web Services “Publish” and interact with G&Gspatial data through GIS Web portalusing OpenSpirit web services Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#5. Resource (Compression) Optimization Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

S NuOpt S-PLUS module: Premier Toolkit for numerical optimizationNuOpt for S is a combination of the S programming environment, the NuOpt optimizer and the SIMPLE modelling language.Large-scale optimization problem solving, including:NuOpt comprises a collection of optimization methods:Linear programmingprimal-dual interior point method with higher orderMixed integer programmingcorrection for Linear Programming (LP) models. [higher]Quadratic programmingsimplex method for Linear Programming (LP) and mixedinteger programming (MIP) models. [simplex]Unconstrained nonlinear optimizationMulti-objective programmingprimal-dual interior point method based on line search forgeneral Convex Programming (CP) models. [line]primal-dual interior point method based on trust regionmethod for general Non-Linear Programming (NLP) models.[trust]primal-dual interior point method based on quasi-Newtonmethod for general Non-Linear Programming (NLP) models.[BFGS] Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#6. Portfolio Management Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#7. Sales and Marketing Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Sales Forecasting Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

S FinMetrics S-PLUS module: 500 functions for time series analysis, econometricmodeling and predictionTime Series Manipulation and VisualisationVector Autoregressive models (VAR)Rolling Statistics and Technical IndicatorsCointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)Rolling Estimation and Backtesting StrategiesUnivariate and multivariate GARCH Volatility ModellingTime Series regression (static, dynamic regression)State Space ModellingSystems of equations estimation (SUR)Factor Models for Portfolio AllocationClassical Time Series Analysis (ARIMA, unit root .)Fixed Income Analytics (rate conversion, yield curve fitting )Long-memory modellingExtreme Value Theory and Copula Analysis\ Many other related functions in base S-PLUS e.g. Fourier analysis Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Forecasting: Parameter Selection Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#8. Forecasting Commodity Prices Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#9. Health and Safety Near real-time safety data: gives organization as muchtime as possible to take action and reduce incidents– Had been doing monthly/quarterly reviews– Web deployment Move from lagging indicators to leading– Track incident pre-cursors, prevent injuries before theyhappen Easy to use for adoption and speed– Increase participation through higher data interactivity Depth and Detail– Make it clear how the organization should respond byproviding high level trends and incident level details– Transparency allows easy spotting oferrors Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#10. Social and Mobile Social Collaborative computingTibbr Mobile iPad application inSpotfire 4.5 Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Social and Mobile tibbr and Apache Solution for geographically distributedteams on drilling projects share articles, meeting notes, operatingprocedures, documentation on tools ideas on ways to improve technology,processes and team objectives. Drillers can upload pictures from the fieldand crowdsource feedback to be sharedin the community improves the quality of responses to issuesand reduces trouble costs tibbr streams can be integrated inSharePoint - context of relevant projects Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Social and MobileDrilling Site #4 Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Social and MobileDrilling Site 4 Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.Drilling Site 5

Social : Spotfire-to-Tibbr Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Social : Spotfire-to-Tibbr Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Social : Tibbr Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

#11. Spotfire Deployment Kit for Apple iPad Deploy white-labeled analytic apps tomobile devices– Without mobile development team– Configure & deploy in under an hour, nocoding Spotfire’s mobile engineering teammonitors & adapts to Apple’s rapidlychanging APIs and policies Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Display a custom URL on startup Spotfire app: Custom example: Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Customize the AnalysisControl inDeployment KitControl in.dxp / WebPlayerAuthorOnce,DeployAnywhere Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Product (Spotfire) StackManagers, Consumers,ExecutivesManagers, Consumers,ExecutivesCLIENTSSpotfireWeb PlayerSpotfireEnterprise PlayerZero install web re MinerInformaticiansStatisticiansSpotfire S (R)Visual, Analytic Hybrid In-Memory EnginesSpotfireDeveloperSERVERSSpotfire ServerSpotfireWeb PlayerServerAdministration & ced DataServicesComplex EventProcessingServicesBatch AnalysisApp Data ConnectivityReal-Time ConnectivityIn-Memory EngineSDKsSpotfire StatisticsServicesComputation EngineIT / MSSpreadsheetsFlatFilesXMLOracleSAP R/3 E-BusinessSiebeleBusinessWebServices Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.EMS, FTL

Product (Spotfire) Stack Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Integrating Statistics into SpotfireStatisticiansDevelop analyticR/S Spotfire MinerMatlab/SAS Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Integrating Statistics into SpotfireMake analyticavailable toapplication authorsStatisticiansDevelop analyticSpotfireSpotfireStatistics Services ServerDeploy and registeranalytic Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Integrating Statistics into SpotfireStatisticianDevelop analyticSpotfireSpotfireStatistics Services ServerConfigure Application to useanalyticDeploy and registeranalytic Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.No coding requiredAnalysts andApplication Authors

Integrating Statistics into SpotfireOne-click deployment ofweb -managed application withgovernance managed by statistics /analytics teamStatisticianDevelop analyticSpotfireSpotfireStatistics Services ServerDeploy and registeranalyticConfigure Application touse analyticAnalysts,Application Authors Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Spotfire Value DriversUniversal AdaptabilityLeverage a single analytics and data discovery platform to empoweranyone, anywhere to make insightful decisionsVisibility Into the UnknownDiscover unexpected insights hidden in Big Data and Real-Time Events toimmediately identify strategic business opportunities or threats.Self-Service DiscoveryFastest to Actionable InsightFreely explore data to any level of detail, radically accelerating decisionmaking, while dramatically reducing dependence on ITInstantly turn insight into action by enabling anyone to rapidly discoverhidden insights and quickly collaboratein context Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Contact InfoMichael O’Connell, PhDSr. Director AnalyticsTIBCOmoconnel@tibco.comDavid MeadeSr. Solution ConsultantTIBCOdmeade@tibco.comPeter Shaw, PhDSr. ConsultantTIBCOTim CrockerSr. Solution ConsultantTIBCO Copyright 2000-2012 TIBCO Software Inc. All rights reserved. TIBCO Confidential & Proprietary Information.

Predictive Analytics in Energy Analytics Components . the Spotfire session with background taken from the ArcMap session The MapChart background can be exported either as a shape file for the selected layer or as a ra