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Short communicationAsian Agri-History Vol. 16, No. 3, 2012 (303–308)303Rainfall Forecast for Gujarat for 2012MC Varshneya1,2, VB Vaidya1, Vyas Pandey1, AM Shekh1, LD Chimote3,and KS Damle11. Anand Agricultural University (AAU), Anand 388110, Gujarat, India(email: vaidya.vidhyadhar@gmail.com)2. Present address: C-3, Westend Village, S.No. 101, Bhusari Colony, Kothrud, Pune 411038,Maharashtra, India3. A/403, Viral Apartment, Nana Shankarsheth Road, Vishnunagar, Dombivali 421202, Maharashtra,IndiaThere is large spatial and temporal variationin rainfall in Gujarat state in WesternIndia. Anand Agricultural University(AAU), Anand, Gujarat has been publishingMonsoon Research Almanac every yearsince 2005 in Gujarati and English. Basedon astrology, meteorological inputs wereused to prepare the almanac (Varshneyaet al., 2009a, 2009b). As a team ofMeteorologists and Astrometeorologists,we have developed this unique technologyof rainfall prediction by blending our greatancient science of Astrometeorology andModern Meteorology.This group has been predicting dailyrainfall (from 1 st June to 31 st October)since 2005 and 2006 (for 8 agroclimaticzones of Gujarat) and for every district (26districts of Gujarat) since 2007 to 2012.The predictions are published every yearby AAU as Monsoon Research Almanacboth in Gujarati and English for agriculturalscientists/officers and planners and finallyfor the farmers of Gujarat. This almanacis inaugurated on the auspicious day ofAkshaya Trutiya (which is the starting day ofa month-long Krushi Mahotsav, organizedby the Gujarat State Government). AkshayaTrutiya is in April/May depending uponpanchang tithi of Vaishakh Shudh Trutiya.This year Akshaya Trutiya was on 24 April2012. Krushi Mahotsav started from 6 May2012. This is the 8th consecutive year ofprediction of rainfall by this group (Tables1–4). It is important to note that for the pasttwo years, viz., 2010 and 2011 monsoonseason, validation of our rainfall forecastbased on Yes/No skill score was 72% and70% accurate. The rainfall projection forthe state as a whole was true to the tuneof 97.4% accuracy (average from 2007 to2011, i.e., 5 years).Salient features of rainfallprediction for Gujarat 20121. Overall monsoon rainfall will be abovenormal by 30.3% in June to Septemberand by 30.1% in June to October forthe state as a whole, except for Kutch( 72%), Panchmahal ( 10%), andJunagadh ( 7%) districts.2. There will be late onset of monsoonstarting from 4th week of June in the
304Rainfall forecastBased on astrology, meteorologicalinputs were used to prepare thealmanac. As a team of Meteorologistsand Astrometeorologists, we havedeveloped this unique technology ofrainfall prediction by blending our greatancient science of Astrometeorology andModern Meteorology.It is important to note that for thepast two years, viz., 2010 and 2011monsoon season, validation of ourrainfall forecast based on Yes/No skillscore was 72% and 70% accurate. Therainfall projection for Gujarat state asa whole was true to the tune of 97.4%accuracy.state, i.e., after 27th June in all fourregions of Gujarat.3. One or two dry spells will occur in mostof the districts during this monsoonwhich will affect the crops.4. There may be pre-monsoon and postmonsoon rain at many places duringMay and November.( 68.3%) followed by August (63.3%).In October there is good possibility ofrainfall which will be helpful for rabi(postrainy season) crops.8. Sufficient drinking water will be availabletill next summer, i.e., till June 2013.6. There will be highest rainfall in SouthGujarat, i.e., 40.5%, followed bySaurashtra with 34.4%.Rainfall prediction is an unique exercisethat our group has been doing since thepast 8 years for the benefit of the farmingcommunity of Gujarat. Feedback fromscientists, farmers, or anyone interested willhelp to promote this endeavor of ancientscience of rainfall prediction.7. Between June and September, highestamount of rainfall will be in September(For more details, please contact VB Vaidya– Eds.)5. There will be less rainfall in June ( 75%for state as a whole).Table 1. Rainfall projection for four regions of Gujarat for 2012 (June–October).RegionRainfall projection(June–October) (mm)Normal rainfall (mm)Rainfall projection(% departure from normal)Middle Gujarat894796.612.2North Gujarat718575.524.8South urashtraState
Asian Agri-History Vol. 16, No. 3, 2012305Table 2. Quantitative rainfall (mm) prediction for Gujarat for 2012.Region/DistrictSouth ddle orth PorbandarRajkotSurendranagarMeanSouth GujaratMiddle GujaratNorth Jun–Sep) 1101.5
306Rainfall forecastTable 3. Normal rainfall (mm) values of Gujarat.Region/DistrictSouth ddle orth PorbandarRajkotSurendranagarMeanSouth GujaratMiddle GujaratNorth 3.7796.6575.5580.4846.5
Asian Agri-History Vol. 16, No. 3, 2012307Table 4. Rainfall prediction for Gujarat for 2012: % departure from normal.Region/DistrictSouth ddle orth PorbandarRajkotSurendranagarMeanSouth GujaratMiddle GujaratNorth –Sep) (Jun–Oct) 2 63 75 72 67 57 58 58 47 31 10 20 25202262032713119200231930693018 82 69 76 75 78 71 11383443 842116 4411 326 1078381083258227 23 7710 71 711714928 9232114628 1020 94 91 100 90 62 82 3 8 852278817271 47114551428170 69310154246463 57532 1 251823 733559332127 72405832 94 93 94 91 95 94 78453414 35 81215230142103115226178283100176 1743956436723328329105193523536 9343966523640 7394169 24.834.430.1Jun 64.7 75.1 85.2 91.4 .044.734.668.3
308Rainfall forecastThere will be late onset of monsoonstarting from 4th week of June in thestate, i.e., after 27th June in all fourregions of Gujarat.ReferencesVarshneya MC, Vaidya VB, Vyas Pandey,Chimote LD, Damle KS, Shekh AM, andKarande BI. 2009a. Forecasting of rainfallfor Gujarat based on astro-meteorology. AsianAgri-History 13(1):25–37.There will be highest rainfall inSouth Gujarat, i.e., 40.5%, followedby Saurashtra with 34.4%. .highest amount of rainfall will be inSeptember ( 68.3%).Varshneya MC, Vaidya VB, Vyas Pandey,Shekh AM, Karande BI, and Kedar Damle.2009b. Validation of astro-meteorologicalrainfall forecast for Gujarat. Asian Agri-History13(3):181–188.
since 2005 in Gujarati and English. Based on astrology, meteorological inputs were used to prepare the almanac (Varshneya et al., 2009a, 2009b). As a team of Meteorologists and Astrometeorologists, we have developed this unique technology of rainfall prediction by blending our great ancient science of Astrometeorology and Modern Meteorology.
