CHANGING TIMES FOR NOT-FOR-PROFIT LIFE PLAN

Transcription

ZIEGLER INVESTMENT BANKING SENIOR LIVING FINANCECHANGING TIMES FOR NOT-FOR-PROFIT LIFE PLAN COMMUNITIES:TRANSPARENCY, REGULATIONS, FINANCINGLEADINGAGE FLORIDA ANNUAL MEETINGJuly 31, 2018PRESENTED BYRich ScanlonSenior Managing Directorrscanlon@Ziegler.comSt. Petersburg, FLBrandon PowellManaging Directorbpowell@Ziegler.comRichmond, VAB.C. Ziegler and Company Member SIPC & FINRA

ZIEGLER SENIOR LIVING FINANCE PRACTICEFINANCE TEAM FOR FLORIDADANIEL J. HERMANNPresident & CEOHead of Investment BankingChicago, ILRICHARD J. SCANLONSenior Managing DirectorSt. Petersburg, FLBRANDON POWELLManaging DirectorRichmond, VATERRY M. HERNDONDirectorChicago, ILREANAE SETHAssistant Vice PresidentChicago, ILAMY CASTLEBERRYDirector,Credit SpecialistChicago, ILLISA MCCRACKENDirector, Senior LivingResearch & DevelopmentChicago, ILKEVIN STROMSenior Managing DirectorHead of Capital MarketsChicago, ILMARK A. BAUMGARTNERChief Credit OfficerMilwaukee, WISCOTT M. DETERMANDirectorInterest Rate ProductsChicago, IL2

STRATEGIC AND INDUSTRY-FOCUSEDRESEARCH EDUCATION: YOU’RE INVITED!Ziegler’s 21st Annual SeniorLiving Finance StrategyConferenceSept. 12 – 14, 2018 atHyatt Regency Hill CountryResort & SpaSan Antonio, Texas(F S Conference will return toFlorida in 2019!!!)The CFO Workshop SeriesSM, the Investor Workshop SeriesSM, and theSenior Living Finance Strategy Conferences are designed to providecutting edge thinking and information to senior living executives,investors, capital markets’ participants and other industry professionals.3

AGENDASECTION 1 THE STATE OF LIFE PLAN COMMUNITIESSECTION 2 DISRUPTORS DEFINING THE “NEW NORMAL”SECTION 3 THE FINANCING ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFE PLAN COMMUNITIES4

SECTION 1The State of Life Plan Communities

THE STATE OF LIFE PLAN COMMUNITIESGrowth DefinedCompetitionConsolidationOccupancyThe Future- Redefining the LPC6

TODAY’S RETIREMENT OPTIONSA LOOK AT SENIORS HOUSING & SERVICES SUPPLYLife Plan CommunitiesAdult DayAffordable Housing 1,955 communities600,000 units 4,800 centers 4,000 agenciesNursing Homes 15,600 homes79%289 participants/day 12,000 communitiesHospice% NFP51%1 million residents33%1.34 mill discharged/yr.26%1,400,000 units24%53,000 units22%Freestanding MemoryCare 1,100 communitiesAssisted Living/Residential Care 20,250 communities1million residents17%Home Health 12,600 agencies4 million served/yr.15%Primarily IL Housing 3,200 properties725,000 unitsSources: Ziegler National CCRC Listing & Profile, LeadingAge, NIC MAP Data and Analysis Service,The National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Ziegler population estimates3%7

NATIONAL LPC (CCRC) DATABASE.NFP AND FP PROVIDERS1,955 Total LPCsVT - 332472126641711911323630122166625917NJ - 40DE - 12MD - 44DC - 65920485HI - 653198145115 7374NH - 19MA - 31RI - 8CT - 285749187742211 to 2526 to 50851 to 7510576 to 100Over 100NoneSource: Ziegler Investment Banking as of 9/1/178

SYSTEM TRENDS 2017LZ 150 PUBLICATION: BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY Size not quality Not-for-profit multi-site seniorliving organizations primary focus Descriptive information on eachsystem–state, size (by type of unit),classification of system, rating,accreditation, addition of 2ndcommunity. Statistics related to affiliation, employees, residents and more Excludes affordable units when computing size; excludes primarilyacute/post-acute/health care systems Comparable to other listings of largest organizations (i.e., Fortune 500)9Source: Preliminary 2017 LeadingAge Ziegler 150 Publication (data as of 12/31/16)

Units(as of 12/31/16)System NameACTS Retirement Services, Inc. 1Lifespace Communities, Inc. 1Westminster Communities of FloridaShell Point Retirement CommunitySantaFe Senior Living, Inc.Moorings Park391627591482017Rank3111729621422016 Rank2017 RankFLORIDA PROVIDERS IN THE LZ 76Communities(as of 129232IL000000AL000000NH000000Summary of Market Rate Units(as of 12/31/16)CampusJohn Knox Village of Florida, Inc.Miami Jewish Health Systems, Inc.St. Joseph's John Knox VillageFleet LandingThe Advent Christian VillageThe Estates at CarpentersSt. Mark Village, Inc.Cypress Cove at HealthPark Florida, Inc.Waterman Village723304244495556641State 4477NCB15543816360161728064120% ILU %ALU 27.7%11.7%31.6%14.6%16.9%13.6%26.4%Acts (3) and Lifespace (11) operate 4 and 5 communities, respectively, in Florida.10Source: Preliminary 2017 LeadingAge Ziegler 150 Publication (data as of 12/31/16)

2017 LZ 150GROWTH: GROWTH OF LARGEST 100 SYSTEMS, COMBINED UNIT MIXFROM 1980 (EXCLUDES EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY)65,00060,00055,00050,000ILUALUNCBAll UnitsAll other organizationspre-198045,000Trinity Senior LivingCommunities40,000UnitsAscension Senior LivingNational Senior Campuses35,00030,00025,000Benedictine 952000200520102015Year11Source: 2017 LeadingAge Ziegler 100 Publication (data as of 12/31/16)

GROWTH AMONG NFPS teCampuses HCBS Alliances &Partnerships Joint Ventures New fullservicecommunitylocations12

GROWTH PLANS OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARSPercentage of LZ 150 who plan to grow through 75.2%Expansion or repositioning of existingcommunity76.5%71.5%32.0%New community locations (affiliationsor development)Estimated 40%new locations36.0%38.0%0.0%201720.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%2016201513Source: 2015, 2016 & 2017 LeadingAge Ziegler 150 Publications

COMMUNITY EXPANSION & REPOSITIONINGS:TRENDS 2014-2017-Repositioning dated units-Conversion to private units*does not include those whodownsized SNSource: Ziegler Investment Banking (deals as of 7/31/17)-Carving out specializedmemory care units-Largely in Assisted Living-Adding IL units-Expanding amenities;investing in common areas-Repositioning dated ILUs14

NON-LIFE PLAN COMMUNITY GROWTH There is an increase in providersdeveloping satellite locations– Close proximity to a main campus– Generally smaller with feweramenities/services– Contractual relationship with maincampus– Relies on main campus forleadership, governance– Can grow over time intoindependent, full campus– Often will leave out skilled care fromthe continuum15Source: 2017 LeadingAge Ziegler 150 Publication (data as of 12/31/16)

FOR-PROFIT COMPETITION BUILDING OUT MARKETS Growth among Florida for-profits has been significant Largely independent living, assisted living andmemory care Puts pressure on occupancy rates Can create oversupply in certain markets and impactfuture growth opportunities for not-for-profit providers16

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY IN FLORIDAMID MARCH 2018- MID JULY 2018 Since mid-March, more than 20for-profit senior living communitieshave opened, been announced, orbegun construction in Florida More than 3,000 new senior livingunits will come onto the Floridamarket– Largely independent living,assisted living and memorycare communities– One new skilled nursing facility(Kendall, FL)Source: Ziegler Investment Banking (7/19/18)17

RECENT & PROPOSED FLORIDA NFP NEW CAMPUSLOCATIONSProjectSponsorLocationYear OpeningThe Arlington of NaplesLutheran Life CommunitiesNaples2016Sinai Residences of Boca RatonJewish Federation of SouthPalm Beach CountyBoca Raton2016Village at the LakesMiami Jewish HealthMiami LakesExpected 2020The Colonnade of EsteroVolunteers of AmericaEsteroExpected 2020University of CentralFloridaWinter ParkExpected 2021Waterman CommunitiesMt. DoraExpected 2021Legacy Pointe at UCFLakeside at Waterman Village18

FOR-PROFIT PROPERTIES WITH DEVELOPMENTBELOW RECENT HIGHSeniors Housing Construction by Profit Status; MAP314Q05 – 2Q18Number of Properties With or-Profit02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201819Source: NIC MAP Data Service www.nic.org/nic-map

NOT-FOR-PROFIT CONSTRUCTION AS PERCENT OFINVENTORY COMPARATIVELY FLATConstruction vs. Inventory; MAP31Seniors Housing 4Q05 – 2Q1812%10%For-Profit %Not-for-Profits0%2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Excludes CCRCsSource: NIC MAP Data Service www.nic.org/nic-map20

SENIORS HOUSING GROWTHQ4 2014-Q4 2017Source: NIC MAP Data Service (12/31/17)21

GROWTH THROUGH SPONSORSHIP sitions Affiliations and acquisitions are on the rise– Often more efficient than organicdevelopment– Fueled by changes in healthcaremarket, increased competition– Drivers: Scale, market share,sophistication, capital access, etc.– Opposites often attract Two smaller organizations – StrongertogetherDispositions Two Systems – Dominate market, controldestiny Single-sites join larger system – “You’re myknight in shining armor . . .”22

DRIVERS FOR NFP SENIOR LIVING CONSOLIDATIONComplexities ofHealthcareFinancialPressureComplexities ccess to CapitalCompetitionAccess to CapitalFinancialPressureCompetitionAccess to tsAbility to AttractTalentDiversify ServiceLinesGrowth CapitalAccess to CapitalComplexities ofHealthcareAbility to AttractTalentDiversify 2010 Complexities ofHealthcareOccupancypressuresCompetitionHigher pt. acuityNegative revenueimpactFinancialPressureAbility to Attract& Retain TalentReinvestmentRequirementsTODAY LeadershipTurnoverAs Boomer CEOsretire, can serveas catalyst toexplore affiliationCEO recruitmentchallenge forsmallerorganizations23

FOR-PROFITS ACT QUICKLYFP to NFP,9.8%198 to FPsector Free-standingSNFsFinanciallydistressedCCRCsNFP to FP,60.9%Closure, 7.1%NFP to NFP,22.2%Source: Ziegler Investment Banking (Data through end of May, 2017)24

2017 LZ 150 GROWTH OF COMBINED UNIT MIXFROM 1990BY AFFILIATIONS, MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS AND NEW CAMPUS GROWTHProjectedGrowth2017 201960,000MA Total - NSC ExcludedNCampus Total - NSC Excluded50,000GrowthAttributedto NewCampusesUnits40,00030,00020,000GrowthAttributed toAffiliations,Mergers ce: 2017 LeadingAge Ziegler 150 Publication (Data as of 12/31/16)

NOT-FOR-PROFIT CHANGE OF OWNER/SPONSORAFFILIATIONS, DISPOSITIONS, ACQUISITIONS, CLOSURESFewer multi-siteaffiliations in 2017 400 communities since 2010Note: Includes market-rate communities; excludes government subsidizedSource: Ziegler Investment Banking Q1 201826

ACTIVITY AMONG LEADINGAGE ZIEGLER 150ORGANIZATIONS Ziegler is aware of 7 situations where LZ 150 organizations are exploringmergers Noted with LZ 150 rank1. ELGSS (#2) & Sanford Health (N/A)- PUBLIC2. Lifespace (#11) & Senior Quality Lifestyles Corporation (#36)- PUBLIC3. Elim Care (#41) & Augustana Care (#30)- PUBLIC4. Not public- national discussion5. Not public- statewide discussion6. Not public- regional discussion7. Not public- regional discussion This reflects nearly 300 market-rate communities and 45,000 market rateunits potentially in transition, the bulk of which are SNF’s in theELGSS/Sanford situation27Source: Ziegler Investment Banking, 6/7/18

ACQUISITIONS BY NFPS ON THE RISE There has been an increase in the number of NFPs acquiring for-profitfacilities/communities in recent years––––Assisted LivingMemory CareIndependent LivingMulti-level (non-Life Plan Community) NFP organizations who are financially strong and have cash to acquire– Opportunity to build-out acquired community– Ability to enter new marketsSource: Ziegler Investment Banking (9/1/17)28

RECENT FLORIDA AFFILIATIONSCityTypeProfit StatusGlenmoor - Westminster CommunitiesSt. AugustineCCRCNFP to NFPMenorah Manor – Solera & ElcoPropertiesClearwaterALFNFP to FPHeron House Assisted Living UndisclosedLargoALFNFP to FPSt. Joseph’s John Knox Village –Concordia LutheranTampaCCRCNFP to NFPUniversity VillageTampaCCRCNFP/FP toTBDNot-for-profit consolidation in Florida has been lesssignificant than in other states and regions29Source: Ziegler Investment Banking (July 2018)

NOT-FOR-PROFITS MAINTAIN HIGHER OCCUPANCYSeniors Housing Occupancy by Profit Status; MAP314Q05 – 006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Source: NIC MAP Data Service www.nic.org/nic-map30

NOT-FOR-PROFIT CCRCS MAINTAIN HIGHEROCCUPANCYCCRC Occupancy by Profit Status; MAP314Q05 – 2Q1895%Florida CCRC Occupancy (FP & NFP) Miami: 87.1% Orlando: 90.5% Tampa: 6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201831Source: NIC MAP Data Service www.nic.org/nic-map

ENTRANCE FEE AND RENTAL OCCUPANCY GAPTRENDING LOWER BUT REMAINS HIGH32Source: NIC MAP Data Service (12/31/17)

REDEFINING THE LIFE PLAN COMMUNITY Branding, name changes- staying relevant for the future consumer Preparing for the Baby Boomers– They want choice (dining options; contract types; types of units)– Self-directed living and care– Transparency (pricing), involvement Focus on wellness, active and purposeful living Need to understand the impact of “Aging in Place” in IL/AL– Better aligns with consumer expectations for receiving services and aging intheir unit .but impacts business model of the continuum– Can also present challenges when marketing to a younger, vibrant Boomer (ifIL resembles AL in many ways)33

SECTION 2Disruptors Defining the “New Normal”

KEY DISRUPTORS & CATALYSTS Workforce pressures– Overall shortages of staff– Wage pressures (minimum wage increases)– Growth in for-profit sector pulling more staff Continued growth in HCBS– Impacting the continuum business model– Enabling consumers to age-in-place more easily Skilled Nursing Pressures, Particularly Post-Acute– Labor pressures creating additional challenges– Occupancy at record lows Technology is a game-changer– Consumer-oriented– Staffing Solutions– Operational efficiencies35

TOP CONCERNS AMONG SENIOR LIVING CFOSTop 5 Areas of Concern for 2018Staff Recruitment & Retention79%Labor Costs (wages, benefits)75%Skilled Nursing/Post-Acute Pressures47%Financial Performance46%Declining Reimbursement36%Capital Needs31%Affordability of product/services29%Regulatory Changes28%Technology Costs & Adoption27%Competition26%Changing Consumer26%IL Occupancy23%Succession Planning8%Emergency Preparedness4%0%Source: Ziegler CFO HotlineSM: 2018 Key Issues10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%36

STAFFING CHALLENGEWAGE PRESSURE California transitioning minimum wage to 15/hour by 2022 if 26 employees; insome cases sooner; Berkeley will transition to 15/hour by 2018, San Jose by2019 Chicago going to 13/hour by 2019 New York approved 15/hour for fast food workers Colorado passed Amendment 70 increasing minimum wage to 12/hour by 2020 Florida minimum wage is 8.25/hour (current Federal Minimum Wage rate) Prompting senior living providers to assess their own entry-level rates.Source: On Shift, Jan. 6, ent/state-minimum-wage-chart.aspx#Table37

DEMAND FOR LABOROccupationNumber of New Jobs (Projected)2014-20242016 MedianPayPersonal Care Aides458,100 21,920Registered Nurses439,300 68,450Home health aides348,400 22,600Combined food prep andserving workers343,500 19,440Retail salespersons314,200 22,680Nursing Assistants262,000 26,590In a number of markets, staff earned income is insufficient to secure quality housing in a reasonableproximity to the community.38Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016

WORKFORCE STATISTICS 74% of CNAsleave for jobsoutside of thehealth care sector Manufacturing Retail Pressures beingfelt outside ofhealthcarepositions as wellSource: 2017 Survey by Indiana Health Care Association/Indiana Center for Assisted Living39

FLORIDA UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES391K3.9%40Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2018

MARCH CFO HOTLINE -CEO RETIREMENT TRENDSHow many years do you estimate that your CEO has until retirement?9.0%More than 15 years16.9%18.9%18.1%15.5%19.0%11-15 years40.3%41.5%5-10 years28.5%32.6%Less than 5 years26.1%33.6%0%5%10%15%2018Source: Ziegler CFO HotlineSM, March 201820%201525%30%35%40%45%201341

POST-ACUTE PRESSURES The nature of care for short-term rehabilitation is changing– Skipping skilled care, discharge to home– Higher acuity patient– Shorter lengths of stay– Narrowing of networks are you in or out? Changing payment models impacting providers– Medicare Advantage– Bundles– ACOs42

ZIEGLER CFO HOTLINE: POST-ACUTE ACTIVITIESIs your organization experiencing any of the followingregarding your healthcare setting?83.5%Decreased length of stays in skilled care74.3%82.1%Patients with a higher level of acuity than inyears' past61.0%56.6%Narrowing of networks from area hospitals,physicians groups33.3%53.8%An increase in consumers with treatmentplans that skip skilled care altogether29.5%0%201720%40%60%80%100%201643Source: Ziegler CFO Hotline, August 2016 & August 2017

COST OF CARE – INCREASES FROM 2016 Between 2016 and 2017,the cost for – a private skilled nursing roomincreased by 5.5%– Home health aide servicesincreased by 6.2% Genworth attributed the dramaticrising rates to – Increased labor costs– Increased acuity of short-staypatients (higher cost of care)2017 U.S.MedianMonthly Cost2017 FloridaMedianMonthly CostAssisted Living(private room) 3,750 3,100Skilled Nursing(private room) 8,121 8,882Skilled Nursing(semi-privateroom) 7,148 7,908Home Health Aide 4,099 3,813Adult Day 1,517 1,40844Source: 2017 Genworth Cost of Care Survey

MEDICARE, PRIVATE PATIENT DAY MIX DECLINING45Source: National Investment Center for Seniors Housing; Skilled Nursing Data Report (March 2018)

MEDICAID, PRIVATE RPPD INCREASING SLOWLYManaged MedicareMedicaidMedicarePrivate46Source: National Investment Center for Seniors Housing; Skilled Nursing Data Report (March 2018)

NATIONAL SKILLED NURSING OCCUPANCY CONTINUINGTO SET RECORD LOWS 5-Year occupancy low in 2017 Reduced average length of stay– Managed care– Medicare bundles– ACA81.7% Increased reliance on home care andassisted living Dallas average skilled nursing stabilizedoccupancy for Q2-2018 was below thenational average at 72.6%47Source: National Investment Center for Seniors Housing; Skilled Nursing Data Report (Oct 2012-Sept 2017)

SKILLED NURSING BEDS- FUTURE PLANSRegarding the number of skilled nursing beds throughout yourcommunity/system, which of the following best applies:61.0%We are not looking to make anychanges to the number of skillednursing beds we have62.2%60.0%11.7%We are planning/considering addingto the number of skilled nursing bedswe haveAllSingle SiteMulti Site14.3%7.3%27.3%We are planning/considering areduction in the number of skillednursing beds we have23.5%32.7%0%20%40%60%80%48Source: Ziegler CFO Hotline, August 2017

PRESSURE POINTS FOR LIFE PLAN COMMUNITIES Various states have had proposed legislation to require entrance fees to berapid within a certain period of time– California (90 day refund requirement)– Maryland (30 days proposed; did not get passed)– New Jersey (1 year; first-in/first-out policy; passed several weeks ago)– Florida (120 day refund requirement, 90 days after 1/1/2016) These are often triggered by a default or financially distressed Life PlanCommunity– Florida falls into this category Increased voice of the resident groups; increasingly driving regulation– Here come Baby Boomers! It is anticipated that this increased scrutiny will only increase49

CHANGING FACE OF SENIOR CARE TECHNOLOGYZiegler white paper50

ZIEGLER LINK AGE FUND (ZLF)Aging in PlaceCoordination of CareChronic DiseaseManagementReduction ofHospitalizations andReadmissionsPrevention and WellnessStrategiesGovernment FundedPrograms / PublicHealth Related MattersRepresentative Business ModelsHealthcare Services Behavioral Change ManagementCapitated Physician ModelsConcierge MedicineHomecare 2.0Hospice and Palliative CareHealthcare IT Clinical Decision SupportMedication ManagementPopulation AnalyticsRemote MonitoringTelehealthOther Institutional Pharmacy Medicare Advantage / Dual EligiblePlans Post-acute Care Diagnostics andTherapeuticsZLF Fund(RECENTLYACQUIRED BYAFAM)51Source: Ziegler Link.age Longevity Fund

ZIEGLER LINK AGE FUNDSDEMO THURSDAY PROGRAMSA key goal of our Funds is to foster collaboration between our limited partners and our portfoliocompanies, and introduce limited partners to new technologies and services. Since launching our firstfund, Ziegler Link Age Longevity Fund, the Investment Managers have Sponsored over 40 demonstrations of new technologies and services for senior care providersHelped arrange over 25 pilot programs/customer relationships between our limited partners and portfoliocompanies or companies conducting demonstrations52

ZIEGLER LINK AGE FUNDSDEMO THURSDAY PROGRAMS53

GROWTH AREAS IN TECHNOLOGY-ENABLED SOLUTIONSFOR AGING AND HEALTHCARE54Source: Ziegler Link.Age Funds

SECTION 3The Financing Environment For Life Plan Communities

TAX-EXEMPT MARKETPLACE FOR SENIORLIVING MARKET CONTINUES TO GAIN MOMENTUM Market now expects consistent value; needs to be fed This includes all types of “quality” situations for rated existing organizations tonew campuses Senior Living sector is one of the last areas where investors can get any “yield”– Supply/demand imbalance favors borrowers as “fund inflows” exceed newissues– Despite this, remain “conservative” in your capital assumptions for futureprojects Certain investors are willing to stretch their “credit tolerance” for more“unconventional projects”Source: Ziegler Investment Banking56

CAPITAL MARKETS SNAPSHOT Long-term interest rates remain low with significant demand from institutional investors Low volume in Q1 – Q2 2018 Long-term rates have been range bound with the 30yr MMD Index between 2.50% –3.00% over the past 6 months, currently hanging around the high end of that rangeduring Q3 2018 Short-term variable rates are rising with the expectation of continued Fed increases –leading to an overall flattening of the yield curve–––Fed increased their target rate by another 0.25% in December, March and JuneMarket expectations are for one or two additional Fed increases in 20181-Month LIBOR now at 2.07% With the passage of the Tax and Jobs Act on December 22, 2017 both the fixed ratebond market and direct bank placements were impacted––Advance refundings are no longer allowed so fixed rate bonds can only be refunded on a currentbasis (within 90 days of the call date)21% corporate tax rate, many borrowers with bank debt will see an increased cost of 0.35% 0.85% passed through to them as the tax-exempt conversion is less advantageous at the lowertax rateSource: Ziegler Investment Banking57

NOT-FOR-PROFIT SENIOR LIVING FINANCINGSVOLUME BY CREDIT STRUCTURE 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 02000200120022003Public Fixed Rate20042005200620072008Public Bank (Letters of Credit)Source: Thomson Financial Securities Data, as of 12/31/2017, Ziegler Investment Banking,Volume & Other Bank Credit Estimates thru 12/31/2017200920102011201220132014Estimated Private Bank Direct Purchase201520162017Other58

NON-PROFIT SENIOR LIVINGCREDIT RATING TRENDS Compared with one year ago, the sector experienced a net loss of one rating;there are also two less organizations rated by multiple rating 0**15*5 organizations have debtrated by more than one ratingagency. Therefore, there are atotal of 133 organizations withfixed rate rated debt. All of these agencies publish guidelinesfor their ratingsCCAC, Fitch & S&P publish ratingcategory medians for key ratiosNON-PROFIT SENIOR LIVING CREDIT RATING TRENDSCUMULATIVE SENIOR LIVING 201620172018Rated Bond IssuesThrough 7/20/18**S&P ICR Issuer Credit Rating / Fitch IGR Implied General Revenue Rating & IDR Issuer Default RatingRatings assigned at the provider’s request after fixed rate debt has been paid.Source: Ziegler Investment Banking, as of 7/20/1859

NON-PROFIT SENIOR LIVING CREDIT RATING TRENDS Ratings Distribution by CategoryRoughly 20% of LPCsare ratedS&PFitchMoody's60Rating 50402930272010012100A CategoryRatingsSOURCE: Ziegler Investment Banking, as of 4/20/180BBB CategoryRatings00BB CategoryRatings60

FLORIDA SENIOR LIVING BOND RATINGSFacility NameSingle/MultiCurrent RatingThe MooringsSingleAMayflower Retirement CommunitySingleA-MultiA-John Knox Village of FloridaSingleA-Shell Point VillageSingleBBB Sunnyside VillageSingleBBBMiami Jewish Health SystemSingleBBBFleet Landing aka Naval Continuing CareSingleBBBVillage on the IsleSingleBBB-Carpenter’s Home EstatesSingleBBB-Cypress CoveSingleBB East Ridge Retirement VillageSingleBB-Presbyterian Retirement Communities61

NON-PROFIT SENIOR LIVING CREDIT RATING TRENDSINCREMENTAL UPGRADES AND DOWNGRADES (1995 YTD) Upgrades have lagged strong financial performance ofmany Life Plan CommunitiesGrowth with debt has resulted in downgrades ormaintenance of a rating that might have been upgraded Recent Downgrades––Underperformance on new projectsDecline in investment performance Indicates change in rating for an organizationSource: Ziegler Investment Banking, as of 7/20/1862

LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES LZ150 #11 and “A” rated (Fitch) since creation of the Obligated Group (11 communities)in 2010 ILU expansion opportunities, SNF replacements, and need to add ALU/MS to severalcampuses led to identified “Project Needs” of over 400 million– Close to 500 million in capital requirements for 6 communities to be completed over4 /- years– Structured in 3 separate bond issues, each 12-18 months apart to minimize negativearbitrage on Trustee held project funds, etc. Board was fully informed starting in 2015 that this plan would lead to a reduction in the“A” rating– “A” rating had been highly valued and extensively marketed to potential residents– “Rating fixation” can lead to repositioning delays– Rating would have been reduced had they “done nothing” as avg. age of the plantwas climbing and occupancy declining Several rated Ziegler clients find/have found themselves in the same position withrespect to the need to “reinvent” their campuses– Village on the Isle – ILU Expansion/SNF Replacement– Fleet Landing – major expansion of several levels of care– The Mayflower – developing plans for major/multi-level expansion63

CHANGES IN MUNICIPAL BOND FUND CASH FLOWSMunicipal Bond Fund Cash Flows vs. 30-Year 0(8,000)(10,000)2.00(12,000)1.00Municpal Bond Cash Flows ( '000)30-Year 'AAA' MMD Index Rate (%)7.00Source: LipperFMI Data Service, as of 7/18/18, and Thomson Financial MMD as of ,000)64

HISTORICAL SENIOR LIVING INTEREST RATES30-Year NR Institutional vs 30-Year “BBB” vs MMD 30-Year “AAA”(1990 YTD - Weekly)Current Market Max Averages:12.00MMD 30-YR “AAA”30-YR “BBB”30-YR NR Institutional NR11.0010.009.139.5010.759.0030-YR NRInstitutional8.007.006.0030-YR "BBB"5.004.003.0030-Yr 013201420152016201720181.00Source: Ziegler Investment Banking, as of 7/20/18NR Non-Rated65

CURRENT INTEREST RATES (SENIOR LIVING)Senior Living Interest Rate RangesTax-Exempt Revenue Bonds (1)SENIOR LIVINGFINANCING STRUCTURES (1)(Insurers Ratings: Fitch/S&P/Moody's)Unrated - Start-Up CommunitiesUnrated - Existing Stable CommunitiesUnrated - General Market Retail"BBB" Rated (Fitch, S&P or Moody's)"A" Rated (Fitch, S&P or Moody's)"AA" Rated (FHA)"AA" Rated (Fitch, S&P, Moody's)"AAA" Rated (FHA)1)2)AVERAGE LONGTERM INTEREST RATERANGES CREDITENHANCEMENT-----0.50%-0.65%AVERAGE RATESPREAD TO"AAA" MARKET 334 to 359 169 to 199 169 to 199 94 to 109 74 to 84 99 to 109 49 to 59 94 to 114SPREAD TOREVENUE BONDINDEX 192 to 27 to 27 to -48 to -68 to -43 to -93 to -48 to 2175757-33-58-33-83-28Non-state specificLong-term (25-30 Yr), fixed rateSOURCE: Ziegler Investment Banking, as of 7/20/1866

RETAIL PARTICIPATION IN MUNI’S HAS DECLINED Retail holding of municipal bonds has fallen from 1.9 trillion in 2010 to 1.6trillion in 2017– Declined by 103 billion in 2017– Still represents about 41% of the total municipal market– Those who are buying are staying within a 10 year maturity Reasons for the retail holders change in investment perspective– Somewhat “spooked” since the financial crisis– Wary of “chaotic economic policy” from WDC and concerned aboutconsequences of a trade war, etc .– Tax reform lowered the top tax bracket from 39.6% to 37.0%– FA’s more focused on separately managed accounts (“SMA”) rather thanrecommending individual bonds– Strong equity market performanceSource: The Bond Buyer, April 2, 201867

BOND DISTRIBUTION CHANNELSZIEGLER’S SENIOR LIVING VOLUME 118.34.0% 40.31.4% 49.01.7% 2,658.990.7% 65.82.6% 12.20.5% 2,471.896.9%2017Total Par Amount 2,549,780,0002016Total Par Amount 2,866,420,000In

Sources: Ziegler National CCRC Listing & Profile, LeadingAge, NIC MAP Data and Analysis Service, 7 The National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Ziegler population estimates TODAY’S RETIREMEN