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Lighting, LEDs and SmartLighting Market OverviewPhilip SmallwoodResearch DirectorStrategies Unlimited
Who is PennWell?Market ResearchWorld leader in LED, laser andphotonics market research andcustom ResearchRESEARCHMAGAZINEEVENTSDIGITAL Global circulation 63,800 9 issues annually includingthe Suppliers Directory Page views : 349,667 Visits: 133,580 Unique: 82,787 North America – Nearly 5,000registrants Europe –Nearly 1,000 registrants Las Vegas—2,300 attendees,90 exhibitors
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PACKAGED LED, COB, CSP AND MODULESMARKETS
Global Revenues for Packaged LEDs2014 - 2019 25,0007% CAGR 21,572 20,000 15,565Revenues ( M)Others 15,000LightingAutomotiveSigns 10,000MobileDisplay 5,000 02013201420152016201720182019
Lighting Revenues 25,00012% CAGR 9,109 20,000 5,263Revenues ( M)Others 15,000LightingAutomotiveSigns 10,000MobileDisplay 5,000 02013201420152016201720182019
10,000Revenues for LEDs in Lighting – byApplication 9,000 9,10912% CAGRReplacement LampsCommercial 8,000Industrial 7,000Outdoor 5,263 6,000Residential 5,000Architectural 4,000Consumer Portable 3,000Entertainment 2,000Off-grid 1,000Retail DisplaySafety and Security 0201320142015Strips and Strings2016201720182019
COB Revenue Forecast in Lighting15% CAGR2014RevenueShare
Module and Light Engine DefinitionLED ModuleLED Light Engine A number of packaged LEDsmounted onto a printed circuitboard (PCB) that has NO driverelectronics. The module can have any levelof integration including optics,thermal management, housingenclosures, etc., as long as itdoes not have the driverelectronics on board. An LED module with the addeddriver electronics, whether onboard, integrated, or separate,as long as it’s sold as acomplete unit. AC light engines will also beincluded under this definition.An AC light engine connectsdirectly to the AC mains whiledelivering photometric andelectrical performance similarto that of DC-driven designs.
Total Market by Product TypeFigure 2 Total Market for LED Modules & Light EnginesBy Product TypeWorld 7,000Revenues ( M) 6,000 5,000 4,000Modules 3,000Light Engines 2,000 1,000 0201420151020162017201820192020
Figure 5 Total Market for LED Modules & Light EnginesTotal Module and LE by End ApplicationBy Luminaire Form FactorWorld 3,000Revenues ( M)TroffersDownlightsLuminairesRoadway FixturesOutdoor Area LightsOther LuminairesFigure 6 Total Market for LED Modules & Light EnginesBy Lamp Form Factor2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020LampsWorld 1,000Revenues ( M) 0ReflectorsTubesOther Lamps 0201411201520162017201820192020
Chip-Scale Package (CSP) CSP is done at the wafer level, eliminating the separate step of havingmanufactured LEDs go through a packaging line (packaging can sometimesbe 60% of the total cost). The CSP LEDs can have the exact same footprint as the LED die, a widerbeam angle, more design flexibility, and it can be overdriven. However, CSP LEDs are not as efficient as high-power LEDs and low yieldsresult in much higher prices, currently. Many large LED chip and packagers are investing in this technologyincluding Samsung, Lumileds, LG Innotek, Seoul Semiconductor, Epistarand LextarTraditional 3030 mid power packageCSP LED
LAMP AND LUMINAIRE MARKETS
LEDs in Lamps and LuminairesReplacement LampsCommercial & IndustrialLuminairesOutdoor LuminairesA-LampsDownlightsStreet LightsMR-16TroffersTunnel LightsReflectorsSuspended PendantsParking GaragesT-LampsTrack LightsParking LotsOthersHigh BaysCanopiesOthersWall Packs, Soffits, andFloodlights
Global Lamp Installed Base50000Installed Units (M)45000400003500030000LED logenFluorescentCFL
Global Lamp Revenue by Technology
LEDs in Lamps and LuminairesReplacement LampsCommercial & IndustrialLuminairesOutdoor LuminairesA-LampsDownlightsStreet LightsMR-16TroffersTunnel LightsReflectorsSuspended PendantsParking GaragesT-LampsTrack LightsParking LotsOthersHigh BaysCanopiesOthersWall Packs, Soffits, andFloodlights
Global Luminaire Unit Shipments1600Unit Shipments (M)1400LED Replacement1200LED ent400CFL20002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Global LED Luminaire RevenueForecast2014 LED Revenues 19,751 endants6%2022 LED Revenues 45,548 MHigh Bay11%High Bay9%Others38%TrackLights7% SuspendedPendants7%Others29%
CONNECTED LIGHTING MARKET
Connected LightingConnected LEDReflector & A-LampsFeaturesProtocolsBasic TunableWhiteZigBeeComplexTunable WhiteBluetoothSimpleDimmingWi-FiColor Changing 6LoWPANConnected OutdoorLuminairesHardwareConnected ling/SwitchesPower LineCommunicationPower LineCommunicationBluetoothPhotocells/Photo SensorsZigBeePower iDimmersOther 802.15.4based dHybridProprietary/Other
CONNECTED REFLECTOR ANDA-LAMPS
Global Installed Base by Lamp Shape Total Installed Base 44 billion lamps Reflector and A-lamps comprise 55% ofthis (24 billion)
Definitions Simple Dimming Connected Lamp – LED lamps that are wirelessly controlled todim, with no control over the color temperature or CRI of the light emitted bythe lamp. Basic Tunable White Connected Lamp – LED lamps that are wirelesslycontrolled to dim using a linear tuning mechanism. Linear tuning productscannot track the blackbody curve (i.e., they cannot maintain a constant Duv asCCT is adjusted). Complex Tunable White Connected Lamp – LED lamps that are wirelesslycontrolled to dim by using a non-linear mechanism, that are effective atfollowing the blackbody curve. Some products can be adjusted over a range ofCCTs and can be dimmed at a constant CCT. Color Tunable Lamp – Wirelessly controlled LED lamps that can be adjusted tocreate white or colored light.
Lamps Features – Black Body CurveComplex Tunable WhiteBasic Tunable 6/caliper 23 white-tunable-led-luminaires.pdf
Connected LED A and Reflector LampsInstalled Units Forecast2014 Total A and ReflectorInstalled Base 23.8 Billion UnitsNonConnectedLED3%2020 Total A and ReflectorInstalled Base 25.0 Billion UnitsConnectedConnectedLEDLED 56.88%Other42.21%
Connected LED A and Reflector LampUnit Shipments & RevenuesUnit Shipments (M)3025Basic Tunable White20Color Changing15Complex TunableWhite10Simple Dimming502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CONNECTED OUTDOOR MARKET
Connected Outdoor Luminaire UnitShipments2014 Connected Outdoor LuminaireShipments 1.66 Million UnitsLED45%NonLED55%2022 Connected Outdoor LuminaireShipments 30.0 Million UnitsNonLED27%LED73%
Total Connected Outdoor LuminaireShipments
Connected LED Outdoor LuminaireUnit Shipments2014 Connected LED Outdoor LuminaireShipments 0.74 Million Units6LoWPAN5%Zigbee12%2022 Connected LED Outdoor LuminaireShipments 21.75 Million UnitsOther 802.15.4based ower lineCommunication13%Power lineCommunication52%Proprietary/Other35%Other 802.15.4based protocol1%
CONNECTED INDOOR MARKET
Connected Indoor Square FeetInstallations2014 Square ft. using connectedcontrols 1,256 Million Sq. Ft.2022 Square Ft. using connectedcontrols 16,464 Million Sq. Ft.NonLED18%NonLED44%LED56%LED82%
Overview of Connected IndoorLighting MarketTotal Revenue Forecast 14,000.00 12,000.00Revenue ( M) 10,000.00 8,000.00 6,000.00 4,000.00 2,000.00 -Rest of the WorldWestern EuropeNorth America
2014 Connected Indoor LightingMarket
Connected LED Indoor 2%Wi-Fi11%PoweroverEthernet4%Power Line4%Bluetooth9%Power overEthernet12%Power Line2%Hybrid25%EnOcean6%
Thank You!Philip SmallwoodResearch DirectorStrategies UnlimitedPhilips@pennwell.com
Connected LED A and Reflector Lamps Installed Units Forecast Other 97% Non-Connected LED 3% Connected LED 0.002% 2014 Total A and Reflector Installed Base 23.8 Billion Units Other 42.21% Non-Connected LED 56.88% Connected LED 0.91% 2020 Total A and Reflector Installed Base 2
