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Brief Insights on the GlobalBus Market›1
8 Transformational Shifts in Passenger MobilityMulti-modalityTransit Buses, UrbanRail, and TaxisShared MobilityIntent to CheckExpense and BeatTrafficLast Mile ConnectivityLeveraging Big DataRoute Flexibility in PublicTransit ServicesFleet Readiness and MeetPeak Hour Demand&Mobility IntegrationSmartphone EnabledSeamless CommutingElectric MobilityTransit Buses to PioneerZero Emission DriveDedicated RoadLanesPreference for SharedMobility ModelsBattery & Charging TechOEMs entering newmarkets and partnerships2
Global HD Bus Market – CAGR of 8.6%Snapshot of Global Heavy-duty Bus Market, 2015 and 2022N.A. 79k 115kEurope 32 k 49 kRussia 11 k 27 kNormal font 2015 valuesBOLD font respective2022 values 400 kin 2022China 79 k 115 kS.A. 29 k 56 kLEGEND: 224 kin 2015Othermarkets 26 k 63 kIndia 34 k 71 kSource: Frost & Sullivan analysisHD Buses includes - Transit Buses, Coaches, Shuttle Buses, and School Buses more than 9m in length and more than 8T GVWR&3
Global HD Transit Bus Market – CAGR of 8.4%Snapshot of Global Heavy-duty Transit Bus Market, 2015 and 2022N.A. 5.2 k 6.9 kEurope 11.9 k 16.0 kRussia 5.1 k 14.2 kNormal font 2015 valuesBOLD font respective2022 values 201 kin 2022China 41.3 k 57.7 kS.A. 13.7 k 30.8 kLEGEND: 111 kin 2015Othermarkets 15.0 k 39.0 kIndia 18.9 k 36.4 kSource: Frost & Sullivan analysisTransit Buses includes – City/Urban Buses more than 9m in length and more than 8T GVWR&4
The Green Push – From 1 in 7 to 1 in 3Snapshot of Global Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market, 2015 and 2022N.A. 3.3k(4.2%)Europe 8.3k(10.6%)Russia 2.2k(2.8%) 78.4Kin 2022China 34.1k(43.6%)S.A. 12.3k(15.7%)Othermarkets 7.8k(9.9%)LEGEND: 18.9Kin 2015India 10.4k(13.2%)Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis% denotes the respective region’s forecast share of new energy buses in total global HD transit bus sales in 2022.&5
Middle East Region Poised for Strong Growth Turkey expected to grow at 4.4% CAGR,reaching 4000 units by 2022GCC16%19% Iran expected to grow at 27% CAGR;reach 3000 units by 2022Iran15%2022Egypt50%CAGR 8.7%8%5% 20,500 units25%201562%Turkey GCC, Middle East, Turkey, Iran expectedto adopt hybrid & electric vehicles at ahigher rate –a. to showcase itself as attractive destinationb. gain expertise in advanced technologies 11,500 units&6
Case Study: Urban Transport in Tehran (1/2)Urban Transportation %)Van(5%)Minibus(3%)& Iranian economy expected to growannually at a rate of 4% - 6% from2016 to up until 2022 Will be reflected in the commercialvehicle industry through high growthrates, return to the stable growthlevels by 2020 Emission regulation upgrades in 2017and 2020 will spurt on demand in2016 and 2019 Iran’s public bus fleet needs 17,000new vehicles Tehran’s bus fleet currently has 6,500vehicles, 40% of which needs to bereplaced.7
Case Study: Urban Transport in Tehran (2/2)Bus SystemsBRTRegionalBusLocal BusSpeedHighMediumLowCapacityHighHighMediumFare CollectionOff VehicleOff VehicleIn VehicleOperatorsPublicPrivatePrivate &Public10.000 The BRT system in Tehranhas 8 corridors covering 130km with daily passengerdemand of 2 million. Tehran’s public bus fleettransports 4.5 millionpassengers daily with close tohalf of it commuting throughthe BRT system.HD Bus Forecast, Iran, 2011 - 2022Unit 024629752.1252.9133.8675.1255.9106.8747.9328
Key Predictions Middle East, South Asia, Africa emerge as key growth regions for transit bus marketfor the period up to 2022. With 29% of total share, China will remain as the biggestmarket in 2022. Alternate energy powertrains, both hybrid/ electric and natural gas expected to gainmarket adoption. Russian OEMs’ expertise with natural gas powertrains will play amajor role in technology uptake, especially in the Eastern European markets. Significant opportunities exist for Turkish bus manufacturers to grow market presencein Middle East, Africa, Eastern Europe markets. OEMs in these markets willincreasingly face competition from Turkish, Indian, Chinese manufacturers. Iran and Egypt expected to emerge as hubs in Middle East. That said, Iran’s policiesexpected to adequately safeguard domestic players from the surge in foreigncompetition.&9
Future of collective mobility – Scenario 2035?truly Carbon neutralConnectedCustomized“Walking is the only form of transportation in which a man proceeds erect - like a man - onhis own legs, under his own power. There is immense satisfaction in that.”Edward Abbey, Postcards from Ed: Dispatches and Salvos from an American Iconoclast&10
Thank you for your attentionAnanth SrinivasanConsultant, MobilityDirect: 49 69 770 3334Email: ananth.srinivasan@frost.comFrankfurt Office&11
demand of 2 million. Tehran’s public bus fleet passengers daily with close to half of it commuting through the BRT system. 0 2.000 4.000 6.000 . “Walking is the only form of transportation in which a man proceeds erect - like a man - on his own legs, und
