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City Tourism Outlook and Ranking:Coronavirus Impacts and RecoveryDavid GoodgerManaging Director, EMEATourism Economicsdgoodger@oxfordeconomics.comKieran FerranSenior EconomistTourism Economicskferran@oxfordeconomics.comApril 2020
Coronavirus has spread more widely and rapidly than expectedCountries with travel restrictions, shaded according toinbound travel spending Vast majority of countries affected Travel restrictions have beenimposed by most countries Significant impacts on travel to,from and within countries in neartermSource: Tourism Economics Global Travel Service (GTS)Questions: Use the question panel on the right
Global lockdowns are having a very large impact on economy and travelGlobal lockdownsChinaItalySpainFranceGermanyUS (specific 02040Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics6080% of global GDPQuestions: Use the question panel on the right100
Immediate economic impact will be greater than during GFCWorld: GDP% quarter4Non-China EM q/q contributionChina q/q contributionAdvanced economies q/q contributionGlobal % e : Oxford Economics/Haver AnalyticsQuestions: Use the question panel on the right201720192021
Policy stimulus is providing vital supportGlobal: Fiscal impulsePpts of potential GDP2.5Advanced EconomiesEmerging 02000200520102015Source : Oxford Economics/Haver AnalyticsQuestions: Use the question panel on the right2020
Expected growth in recovery but impacts will be felt into the medium termGlobal GDP OutlookAnnual growth, %10%GlobalUSEurozoneChina8%6%4%2022 GDP relative topre-recession trend2%0%-2%-4%-6%20192020Source: Oxford EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the right20212022
Huge hit to labour market will impact consumer and travel demandLabour shocks% of Total employmentFrance - workers temporarily laid-off under government16support schemeUS - rise in jobless claims in the four weeks to Mar 28Spain - fall in employment end-Feb to end-MarchUK - applications for universal credit Mar 16 to 3114121086420FranceUSSpainSource : Oxford Economics/Haver AnalyticsQuestions: Use the question panel on the rightUK
International travel will fall more sharply than GDP for the yearGlobal GDP & Tourist ArrivalsGDP (real price)Annual growt h, %40%Prior upside30%Prior downside20%New ource: Tourism EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the right2013201620192022
Impacts felt across all regionsGlobal city international visitor arrivals by destination region, relative to 2019% difference from 2019 Asia PacificEuropeSource: Tourism EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the rightNorth America Latin AmericaMiddle East &Africa
Expected impacts in 2020 will be affected by duration and seasonalityGlobal arrivals: average monthly seasonalityEurope% share annual arrivals, 2013-18MEA16%APAC14%N America12%LatinAmerica10% Expected 8-month impact period coversover 3/4 usual annual European travelactivity – but a smaller amount of usualtravel for Middle East and Africa (2/3). Within this, current restrictions areexpected for around 4 months. Duration of current restrictions will havea big impact on flows – some taperingmay begin peak summer months. “Typical airline had 2 months of cash atthe start of the year” according to IATA airline failures may : UNWTO, Tourism EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the rightOctNovDec
Occupancy falls below 50% in most major marketsAverage Hotel Occupancy Rate by Country & RegionChinaOccupancy rat e,%, rolling 7 day average for week ending80Asia Pacific excl. ChinaEurope70USA6050403020100Jan5th12t h19t h26t hFeb2nd9thSource: STR, Tourism EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the right16t h23rdM ar1st8th15t h22nd29t hApr5thDat a for week ending
Occupancy falls below 50% in most major marketsAverage Hotel Occupancy Rate by MarketOccupancy rate, %, rolling 7 day average for week endingData for week ending100Feb23rd90Mar 22nd8070605040302010Source: STR, Tourism EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the ne0
Largest city destinations hit hardest City international visitor arrivals decline, 2019-2020(mn)Hong KongBangkokMacaoDubaiLondonShenzhenParisNew YorkRomeSingaporeTokyoOsakaKuala LumpurBarcelonaGuangzhou% -42%-36%-37%-42%-12Source: Tourism -4.2-3.8-3.8-3.5-3.3-10Questions: Use the question panel on the right-8-6-4-20
but declines in international visitor arrivals in all cities in 2020Decline in international city visitor arrivals (mn), 2019-2020Questions: Use the question panel on the right
Some changes to the city rankingsGlobal city international visitor arrivalsBangkokHong KongMacaoDubaiLondonNew YorkParisSingaporeShenzhenTokyoRomeKuala 2131415Source: Tourism EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the 7.05.95.2Moved up rankingsrelative to oved down rankingsrelative to 2019
Cities with large proportion of long-haul visitors may take longer to recoverTop 15 city destinations, split by distance, 2020(mn)BangkokMacaoHong KongDubaiNew YorkParisLondonSingaporeTokyoShanghaiKuala 4%63%83%76%68%89%81%57%60%90%0Source: Tourism EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the Short- & Medium-haulLong-haul1015
Return to 2019 levels of international visitor arrivals will take several years City international visitor arrivals (mn), 2019Key:International visitorarrivals below 2019 levelInternational visitorarrivals equal to or above2019 levelsLevels:0mn5mn10mn15mn20mn25mnQuestions: Use the question panel on the right
declines in international arrivals are forecast for all cities in 2020 City international visitor arrivals (mn), 2020Key:International visitorarrivals below 2019 levelInternational visitorarrivals equal to or above2019 levelsLevels:0mn5mn10mn15mn20mn25mnQuestions: Use the question panel on the right
some recovery in 2021 but all cities will still remain below 2019 levels City international visitor arrivals (mn), 2021Key:International visitorarrivals below 2019 levelInternational visitorarrivals equal to or above2019 levelsLevels:0mn5mn10mn15mn20mn25mnQuestions: Use the question panel on the right
it will take until 2022 before the first cities return to 2019 levels City international visitor arrivals (mn), 2022Key:International visitorarrivals below 2019 levelInternational visitorarrivals equal to or above2019 levelsLevels:0mn5mn10mn15mn20mn25mnQuestions: Use the question panel on the right
and by 2023 most cities are expected to exceed 2019 levels City international visitor arrivals (mn), 2023Key:International visitorarrivals below 2019 levelInternational visitorarrivals equal to or above2019 levelsLevels:0mn5mn10mn15mn20mn25mnQuestions: Use the question panel on the right
with almost all cities recovered to at least 2019 levels by 2024 City international visitor arrivals (mn), 2024Key:International visitorarrivals below 2019 levelInternational visitorarrivals equal to or above2019 levelsLevels:0mn5mn10mn15mn20mn25mnQuestions: Use the question panel on the right
but by 2025, some Italian cities still remain below 2019 levels.City international visitor arrivals (mn), 2025Key:International visitorarrivals below 2019 levelInternational visitorarrivals equal to or above2019 levelsLevels:0mn5mn10mn15mn20mn25mnQuestions: Use the question panel on the right
Domestic visitor arrivals will decline sharply in 2020Decline in city domestic visitor arrivals by region, 2019-2020(mn)Domestic share of totalcity arrivals 2020China90%Asia Pacific (exc. China)53%North America73%Europe35%Middle East & Africa49%Latin America-400Source: Tourism EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the rightInternationalDomestic60%-300-200-1000
Domestic recovery by 2021 but international recovery will take 2 more yearsGlobal city international vs domestic visitor arrivals(mn)3,0002,500International visitor arrivalsDomestic visitor arrivals2,0001,5001,00050002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Source: Tourism EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the right
The recovery will be unevenCity reliance on domestic and long-haul arrivals, 2020Domestic % share of total arrivalsLess VolatileJakarta100% ShanghaiTokyo80%HangzhouCracowCape Town60%40% OrlandoLos AngelesNew San FranciscoAbu DhabiDubaiMore Volatile0%0%20%Source: Tourism EconomicsQuestions: Use the question panel on the right40%60%80%100%Long-haul % share of international arrivalsNote: Annotated cities are those ranked in top 50 largestcities for international visitor arrivals
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Shanghai 13 10.3 10 7.0 12 10.9 Barcelona 14 9.3 14 5.9 18 9.8 Osaka 15 9.1 17 5.2 17 9.9 Source: Tourism Economics Key: Global city international visitor arrivals Moved up ranki
