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The Best of Times/The Worstof TimesThomas M. CoughlinPresidentCoughlin Associateswww.tomcoughlin.com 2009, Coughlin Associates1
Outline 2009 HDD trends and why things will eventually getbetter Important developments driving storage–––––––Rapid I/O interfacesExpanding storage hierarchyIncreasing content resolutionGrowth of on-line storageLower power use initiativesGrowth in metadata generationNew security options in storage Conclusions Sources 2009, Coughlin Associates2
In The Darkest Times "Even in the darkest time the lights mustnever go out, the music must always play."(A.H. Auden) “Happiness can be found even in thedarkest of times, when one only remembersto turn on the light” (Dumbledore) 2009, Coughlin Associates3
Why People Need More Storage Memories and information are our greatestresource, long term memory is a key part ofbeing a human being Digital technologies allow new ways to create,capture, share and use content—these are thebasis of the next economy There is more storage on more devices that weuse everyday At the same time the immediate future will bevery challenging but there will be a recovery! 2009, Coughlin Associates4
Weird and Wacky World of USB MemorySuper TalentWalletStorage/MP3Player 2009, Coughlin AssociatesATP Green Drives5
External Storage and BackupWireless USB (100MBps within 10 feet)HP Media Server, V2Clickfree BackupiVDR external storage 2009, Coughlin AssociatesAny storage device becomesnetworked storage6
189 EBRevenueIncrease(2003-2008) 13.6 BASPDecline(2003-2008)17.6% /GBDecline(2003-2008) e(2003-2008)10000HDDs Shipped Annually (M)Based upon HDDmarket trendsover the last 5yearsStorage Capacity Shipped Annually(EB)Demand for Storage is Extremely Elastic 2009, Coughlin Associates7
10000 GB9000 GBAccumulatedDigital ContentPer Average USHousehold8000 GB7000 GB6000 GB5000 GB4000 GB3000 GB2000 GB1000 GB0 GB20062007200820092010201120122013Personal Data2234517299132171214Retail Home 7270384Home Backup329819533352378112541920Home Entertainment19243576012401941275937204835 Consumer Survey on Digital Storage in Consumer Electronics (Coughlin Associates, 2008) Assume 100 M American Households, each with an average of 9 TB ofstorageThis is 900 M TB of storage or 900 Exabytes of storage in US householdsby 2013Of this amount 21 Exabytes are user generated content 2009, Coughlin Associates8
Total New Storage Capacity for Media and Entertainment(over 39 Exabytes of New Storage by 2014)100,0002009 Digital Storage for Media and EntertainmentReport, Coughlin AssociatesDigital Conversion & PreservationNew Film, Animation, Broadcast, Episodic ArchivingBroadcast AcquisitionTotal NewCapacity (PB)10,000Movie AcquisitionDigital CinemaVOD StreamingVOD IngestNetworks1,000Satellite HeadendsCable HeadendsBroadcastersCompositing and Special EffectsPost Production100102008200920102011201220132014 2009, Coughlin AssociatesTotal revenue for media andentertainment storage willincrease about 2.8X from2008 through 2014 ( 3.5 Bto 9.9 B)9
Cost for Storing 1PB for 20 Years 700,000With BackupOne Copy 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 1 PB of storage using 1TB HDDs with properenvironment, racks,HVAC, etc. cost about 166,000 up front and 16,000 per year tomaintain. When you update thisHDDsay in 5 years youTapewould have another 28,000 in capital and 8,000 in annualoperating expenses. Over 50% of the totalcost of preserving the1 PB of content is inthe first year. 2009, Coughlin Associates10 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 1,00020082010201220142016201820202022 72018201920202021202220232024202520262027 0Annual Estimated Cost for 1 PB1 PB Storage Expense 600,000
HDD Trends in 2009 Largest ever decline expected in HDD unitvolume in 2009 due to less demand duringeconomic downturn Pressure from SSDs on some enterpriseapplications, not so much in notebooks Expect higher capacity drives in 2009– 2 TB 3.5-inch drives (already happened)– 700 GB 2.5-inch drives– 300 GB 1.8-inch drives HDD recovery starting in second half of 2009?– Later part of 2010 more likely 2009, Coughlin Associates11
Prior History a Guide to Future HDD Demand?(HDD YoY Unit Shipment Growth)35%30%Possible 2011 Recovery ( 72008200920102011201220132014-10% 2009, Coughlin Associates12
HDD Application ProjectionsUnits in thousands.1,200,000MobileCEDesktopEnterprise 0200120022003200420052006200720082009 2009, Coughlin Associates2010201120122013201413
HDD Form Factor Projections1,200,0001.3 inch or less1.8 inch2.5 inch3.5 inchUnits (in 00120022003200420052006200720082009 2009, Coughlin Associates2010201120122013201414
Revised HDD Capital Expectations Negative growth in HDD unit demand in 2009will significantly impact capital spending Some capital spending to support expectedtechnology transitions such as DTR– First discrete track recording drives not likely until2010– Issue with DTR and patterned media is higher driveBOM costs Expect broader capital spending recovery bysecond half of 2010 as industry gears up forbetter unit demand and roll-out of newtechnology to support higher areal recordingdensities 2009, Coughlin Associates15
When Will HDD Market Recover? HDD market will be driven by renewed growth incurrent and new applications– Growth in HDDs in netbook computers and laptops– Growth in storage to support content delivery andcloud storage models– Growth in mobile and static consumer applications-eventually Continued demand for storage when moneyavailable again to make investments—storagedemand is very elastic 2009, Coughlin Associates16
Solid State DrivesLexarToshiba 2009, Coughlin Associates17
High Capacity SD Cards 2009, Coughlin Associates18
Growth of Fast Interfaces(Graph from Silicon Image, bUSB1020042005200620072008 2009, Coughlin om/ssd-law-1.html
2009, Coughlin Associates20
Speed and Power Driving NewStorage Hierarchy Power use in data center is a major expense and storage plays a significantrole (direct power use as well as HVAC power) SSDs are being promoted for Tier 0 (very high performance) applications aswell as part of a power control solution in data-centers 2009, Coughlin Associates21
Enterprise and Computer Outlookfor HDDs and SSDs40Units Shipped (M)3530252015105020082009HDD Enterprise20102011HDD ATA Enterprise2012SSD EnterpriseUnits Shipped (M)10001001010.1200820092010HDD Mobile PC2011SDD Mobile PC2012 Between 2008 and2013 SSDs inEnterprise willincrease 3X and by2013 be about 4.8%of the FC/SASenterprise HDDunits shipped Between 2008 and2013 SSDs inMobile PCs willincrease by 19Xand be about 3.6%of the Mobile PCHDD units shipped 2009, Coughlin Associates22
Growth of On-Line BusinessModels The last couple of years have brought a reemergence of on-line or remote storage servicesas well as do-it-yourself cloud storage.– At the start of 2008 about 1,000 companies wereoffering remote storage. Examples are Nirvanix andAmazon S3– “In the last few months, a number of prominent ITcompanies have come out with do-it-yourself, privatecloud storage and computing development platforms.There's also a gaggle of startups trying to find awedge into the market.” Chris Preimesberger,November 2008 2009, Coughlin Associates23
Metadata Generation Technology Other Examples– Sensor basedsuch as GPS ondevices Still and movingimage recognition Voice to textconversion Indexing andgeneration ofsearchableinformation Metadata couldbecome very largeif it makes theoriginal dataeasier to use SAmgl Automated MetadataGeneration MeGA (Automatic MetadataGeneration Applications) Project(Report from 2005) 2009, Coughlin Associates24
Storage Security Developments The Trusted Computing Group released three standards.– The Opal standard is for PC hard drives,– the Enterprise Security Subsystem Class Specification is forenterprise hard drives– the final one is for secure interoperability with other storagestandards such as SCSI and ATA. The Trusted Computing Group hopes that the Opalstandards will give vendors a single blueprint for buildingand implementing encrypted hard drives. It is designedto facilitate broad adoption of full disk encryptionsolutions by creating an open, industry standard thatoffers improved interoperability across storage vendors,encryption technologies and platforms. 2009, Coughlin Associates25
Conclusions Although the next couple of years will be challenging to the HDD, HDDcomponent and capital equipment companies, there is still great demand forstorage and there will be a recovery Solid state storage products will allow faster performance, particularly for readalthough current generation devices vary widely in their performance Concerns with power consumption, performance and cost will expand thestorage hierarchy—particularly for enterprise applications Remote storage options will expand the availability of storage and drive newdemand Automated metadata generation will increase, making indexing and usingcontent easier Storage security will improve with standards introduced for PC and enterprisestorage applications 2009, Coughlin Associates26
Despite everything inthe next decade A terabyte in yourpocket A petabyte in yourhome Exabytes indatacenters Zetabytes in theworld 2009, Coughlin Associates27
Sources 2009 CES and Storage Visions Conferences 2009 Digital Storage for Media andEntertainment Report, Coughlin Associates 2009 Digital Storage in Consumer ElectronicsReport, Coughlin Associates 2008 Consumer Survey on Digital Storage inConsumer Electronics, Coughlin Associates 2009, Coughlin Associates28
Thanks! 2009, Coughlin Associates29
Clickfree Backup Wireless USB (100 MBps within 10 feet) iVDR external storage Any storage device becomes networked storage . – Growth in storage to support content delivery and cloud storage models – Grow
