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MO LE C UL EMAN AG ESRA journey into the Future of Europewith the European Chemical Industry
TABLE OFCONTENTS246OUR JOURNEYWHERE WE’RECOMING FROM16284250WELCOMETO 2050!WHERE WE’REGOINGAN INVITATIONEUROPE ANDITS CHEMICALINDUSTRYIN 2050CHEMICALS ATTHE CENTRE OFTECHNOLOGICALDISRUPTION5860Annexes54KEY ASSUMPTIONSENDNOTESACKNOWLEDGEMENTS8TIME TO ACT!
MOLECULE MANAGERS WELCOME TO 2050WELCOME TO 2050!Cefic’s 8-Point Vision of the Futureof Europe and its Successful, CompetitiveChemical Industry in 20501 Geopolitics2 Economics3 CircularityTHE WORLD HASBECOME MOREPROSPEROUS ANDMORE COMPLEX,WITH A FRAGMENTEDAND VOLATILEGEOPOLITICALENVIRONMENT.EUROPE HASDEVELOPED ITSOWN DIFFERENTBUT COMPETITIVEPLACE IN THE GLOBALECONOMY.THE EUROPEANECONOMY HAS GONECIRCULAR, RECYCLINGALL SORTS OFMOLECULES INTO NEWRAW MATERIALS.European chemicalindustry revenuesgrowth has outpacedEuropean grossdomestic product (GDP)each year. The valueof European chemicalsproduction has increasedthrough specialisationand a focus ondigitalisation even asgrowth in chemicalproduction volumes hasstabilised. A supportiveregulatory environmentand a competitivebase of commoditychemicals productionfavour efficient, wellmaintained, state-of-theart and clustered assetsin Europe.Europe’s chemicalindustry is at the centreof this evolution, actingboth as producer ofproducts valued bysociety and a leader inrecycling. The industryperforms a role as therecycler of the circularsociety, transformingwaste into valuable newraw materials. The issueof plastic waste in theenvironment has beentackled.Global trade flows haveshifted considerablyas the result ofboth technologicaldevelopments andincreasingly insular,regional politics thathamper multilateralismand disrupt value chains.There is more economicand political integrationwithin most regions,but more fragmentationbetween regions.China and India havedeveloped into leadingglobal economies andAfrica has evolved intoan important market.24 ClimateCLIMATE CHANGECONTINUES TOTRANSFORM OURPLANET.European societyis close to achievingnet-zero greenhousegas emissions, whilekeeping all Europeancitizens and regionson board. Virginfossil carbon is usedselectively andproductively.The European chemicalindustry has achieveda significant reductionof its own greenhousegas (GHG) emissionsand adapted to achanging climate.It plays a pivotalrole in providingtechnologically andeconomically feasiblepathways towardachieving Europe’sambitious GHGemissions reductiongoals.
5 EnvironmentEUROPEANS HAVE SETTHE PROTECTION OFHUMAN HEALTH ANDTHE ENVIRONMENTAT THE PINNACLE OFAN UNCOMPROMISINGPOLITICAL AGENDA.Global sustainabilitystandards have beensuccessfully developed.Sustainable, biobased and fossil-basedchemistry have mergedinto a spectrum ofsolutions governed byevidence-based rules.Europe’s chemicalindustry is recognisedand welcomed as anindispensable providerof safe, sustainable andinnovative solutions atthe service of society aswell as a reliable partnerand attractive employer.6 Industry7 DigitalisationEUROPEAN INDUSTRYHAS BECOME MOREINTEGRATED ANDCOLLABORATIVE IN ANEU-WIDE NETWORK OFPOWER, FUELS, STEEL,CHEMICALS ANDWASTE RECYCLINGSECTORS.This interdependencehas boosted thecompetitive advantageof the Europeanchemical industry.It has also reinforcedits role at the centreof the transformationof European industryas a whole.DIGITALISATIONHAS COMPLETELYCHANGED THE WAY WEWORK, COMMUNICATE,INNOVATE, PRODUCEAND CONSUMEAND BROUGHTUNPRECEDENTEDTRANSPARENCY TOVALUE CHAINS.Europe has embraceddigitalisation andthe fourth industrialrevolution and investedheavily in science,technical, engineeringand mathematics (STEM)education. Europe hasmaintained the skillsto succeed.38 UN SDGsTHE UNITED NATIONSSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT GOALSAND ITS SUCCESSORSARE AT THE CORE OFEUROPEAN BUSINESSMODELS.They have openedbusiness opportunitiesas market sharesincrease for those whoprovide solutions tothese challenges.The European chemicalindustry does its partto contribute to a fairtransition toward greatereconomic, environmentaland social sustainabilitynot only in Europe butworld-wide.
MOLECULE MANAGERS AN INVITATIONAN INVITATIONIt is impossible to build a better future for Europewithout a successful European chemical industry.This report is an initiative ofthe European chemical industryto describe a plausible path towarda prosperous, more sustainableEurope in the year 2050.This is our commitment in thejourney ahead: Cleaner, safer, morecircular. Producing more with less.Increasing fairness. Going digital.Dynamic resiliency.That’s only two investment cyclesaway for an industry that thinks indecades. This vision of our industryat mid-century is offered as ourinvitation to discuss and debate theurgent decisions we are all facing –the prerequisites to a world thatis cleaner and healthier and moreinclusive, where the costly transitionto climate neutrality has been sociallyfair and just, and in which Europemaintains its global relevance.As a society, we are increasingly awareof the environmental impact of humanbehaviour on our planet and health andwe are taking unprecedented steps tomitigate it. Europe is mandating re-useand recycling. Reducing greenhousegas emissions is at the top of thepolitical agenda. Industry is investingin renewable energy and emissionfree transport.We serve society with products thatpeople value and support people’snatural desires for better lives, ahealthy planet, peace and prosperity.We produce everything from soapsto solvents and sealants and frombiofuels to plastics and vitamins andactive ingredients for pharmaceuticals(to name just a few). As an ‘industryof industries’ we help downstreamindustries and value chains fromconstruction to transportation andenergy achieve their goals. We area 650 billion industry with trillionsof euros of potential. We are part ofthe fabric of progress, sustainablyproducing the raw and high-techmaterials on which a modern,resource-efficient society is built.As an industry, we are in a constantdialogue with society concerningcontinuous improvements in chemicalsafety, the protection of human healthand the environment and biodiversity.We do not own the truth, neither canwe predict the future with certainty.In this spirit, in both the main reportand in a series of provocative, fictional“Facets of the Future”, we invite youto explore several ‘What If’ scenarioswith us to help ensure that we are notmissing new challenges and betteropportunities - and don’t end up witha future that nobody wants.We want not only to continue tothrive for the next 30 years andbeyond but also to lead the transitionfor our industry globally by offeringEuropean solutions to globalchallenges.New technologies are transformingthe way we live and work—for thebetter. That’s an exciting businessopportunity that we are eager toembrace—creating thousands ofdecent jobs and more opportunitiesfor diversity in the workforce.Our Vision and the whole of this reportare based on a deep, year-long analysisof authoritative quantitative andqualitative research on megatrends,alternative feedstocks and circularity,climate change and the Europeanenergy mix. We consulted leadingexperts, thought leaders and otherstakeholders. Based on thosediscussions we made a series ofassumptions and we invited hundredsof experts from around the worldto challenge us on our assumptions.They did. We listened. And thediscussion continues."WE ARE A 650 BILLIONINDUSTRY WITH TRILLIONS OFEUROS OF POTENTIAL"4
"THIS REPORTINVITES YOU TOHELP US BLAZEA EUROPEAN TRAILFOR THE CHEMICALINDUSTRY"This report invites you to helpus blaze a European trail for thechemical industry. We will not havethe sheer numbers of engineersthat China has. We do not have thefeedstock advantage of North Americaor the Persian Gulf region. We willfight to keep our export markets, butwe need to define our own, Europeanway. Out of pure self-interest, theEuropean chemical industry needsto build on Europe’s strengths tohave a solid future and to deliver onthe expectations of investors, ouremployees and the communities theylive in. We believe we can. It will beneither easy nor simple. But it hasto be done and that means we haveto think outside of our current box.The European way means toinnovate toward circular models,to lead on sustainability and to beat the forefront of new technologies.It means integrating more closely withsectors outside the chemical industryand expanding beyond our borders.And it means to be seen by ourcustomers as leading the way.Our report is more upbeat thanyou might expect given our society’smany current political and economicanxieties. We believe the Europeanchemical industry can flourish as wehelp Europe go carbon-neutral, reduceplastic waste, move toward a circulareconomy and address legitimatepublic concerns about health andchemical safety.We don’t claim to have all the answers,and we know that we will need to workmore closely with government andsociety to ensure that our realistic hopebears fruit. We hope you’ll join us.Daniele FerrariCefic PresidentMarco MensinkCefic Director General5
MOLECULE MANAGERS OUR JOURNEYOUR JOURNEYThis vision for the European chemical industryis the result of a rigorous quantitative and qualitativeconsultation process that is the broadest everundertaken by this industry.LaunchDeep diveDelphi studyLaunched by the Cefic Board inOctober 2017, this vision paper isintended to stimulate a discussionabout sound business, political andsocietal decision-making grounded ina consensus-based foresight exercise.The project began with a deep diveinto all relevant, existing research.Then we met consultants includingMcKinsey, Deloitte, DECHEMA,Accenture, ECOFYS and Korn Ferryas well as the foresight team of theEuropean Commission. Next, workingclosely with the Copenhagen Institutefor Futures Studies (CIFS), whichmonitors more than 100 differenttrends and megatrends, we identifiedthose of greatest relevance to theEuropean chemical industry andagreed on a set of 32 high-levelassumptions on the forces most likelyto have a major impact on the evolutionof the industry.To put our assumptions to the testwe subjected them to a Delphistudy1 , which is designed to providestrategic foresight when dealing withcomplex topics and a high degree ofuncertainty. Our Delphi study involveda systematic, interactive examinationby more than 300 reviewers rangingfrom chemical industry expertsto academic, government andindependent experts in other fields.Foresight is a well-established practicethat supports leaders and theirorganisations in engaging in explicitand alternative futures thinking in orderto reveal and test critical assumptionsand discover new options for shapingnew and better outcomes.6
It has involved more than 300 stakeholdersfrom academia, government and think tanks.They came from a range of disciplines, somein chemistry and some beyond.Vision statementFacets of the futureThank youTogether, these assumptions havebeen used to inform a realistic andactionable vision statement as astarting point for wider dialogue onthe development of the Europeanchemical industry and its sociopolitical environment from now to2050. It is only one possible futurewithin a range of possible futures. Itis subject to a wide range of externalinfluences and uncertainties. But it isan educated, plausible estimate of thefuture that is neither purposely positivenor negative.In parallel to our work with CIFSand the Delphi study, we have beenguided and advised by Dr. AngelaWilkinson, a well-respected foresightand scenario planning practitionerand scholar who has worked withpolicy pathfinding organisationssuch as the OECD and led otherambitious international foresightinitiatives. Together, we exploreddifferent fictional “Facets of theFuture” to provide wider contexts andprovocative perspectives on futuresthat we may need to prepare for.We must thank many people forthe hard work done to bring thisvision together. They include RichardNorthcote, who led the way but sadlypassed away during this process. Hiswork not yet finished, his vision willcontinue in the journey we now start.7
MOLECULE MANAGERS WHERE WE'RE COMING FROMWHERE WE'RECOMING FROMChemistry has been an essential part of ourworld since the dawn of time, providingthe biochemical foundation for life itself.Our industrial fabric, activities andproducts benefit the well-being of millions of people inEurope and worldwide. In a constant quest of discovery,whether anticipating or responding to societal needsranging from healthy food for a growing population tocaring for an ageing population and providing access toclean water, clean mobility and increased connectivity,chemists have given us medicines, sanitation, fertilisers,paints, insulation material, pesticides and plastics.Chemicals have been instrumental to using naturalresources such as water and energy in efficient way.Today, the European chemical industry is every bit asindispensable to modern life, producing the buildingblocks and high-tech materials on which modern societiesare built. Our molecules and materials are used in everyindustry, from agriculture to construction, food andbeverages, energy, health care, machinery, textiles,hospitals and transportation2. We’re developing morecradle-to-cradle business models that optimise valuethroughout multiple lifecycles.The European Union’s chemical sector employs 1.2 millionhighly qualified people directly in 28,000 companies.A recent study from Oxford Economics3 reports that thechemical sector supports around 19 million jobs across allsupply chains. It generates more than 540 billion a year insales4 and 170 billion in European value added5. We haveembraced corporate social responsibility, ethical behaviourand the principles of Responsible Care 6.THE EUROPEAN CHEMICALINDUSTRY IS ALSO EUROPE’SBIGGEST INDUSTRIALCONSUMER OF ELECTRICITYWe are closely interlinked with many other industrial sectorsand value chains in Europe. We are, in fact, the industryof industries. We will evolve as our value chains developand our changes impact those around us. For that reason,although we believe we need to lead our transition anddetermine our future ourselves, we are very clear we needto do this in close dialogue with everyone involved.28 000COMPANIES1.2MILLIONJOBS 540BILLIONSALESIn recent years the European chemical industry hasincreasingly been driven toward high value-added productssuch as lightweight materials, and insulation that improvesenergy efficiency, sophisticated inks and compounds for 3Dprinters, coagulants that help recover valuable phosphatesfrom waste water, better laundry detergents and advancedmaterials for batteries, solar panels and wind turbine blades.The European chemical industry is also Europe’s biggestindustrial consumer of electricity, giving us a big stake inthe transformation of Europe’s energy systems. We havealready made big changes. Our greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions have fallen by nearly 61% since 1990 even asproduction increased by 83%7. By 2050, based on whatwe know about technology today, we think we can reduceGHG emissions a further 50% compared with today’s levels 8 .However, that would require an enormous effort by industryand society and the right framework conditions. A 50%reduction in GHG emissions between today and 2050 wouldrepresent an 80% reduction from 1990 levels. All technicalsolutions, including carbon storage and re-using CO2 as afeedstock, will be necessary to reduce our GHG emissions.8
Total greenhouse gas emissions in theEU chemical industry Millions of tonnes(CO2 equivalent). Source: European EnvironmentWe understand that as a society we need to achieve more.We will engage in the debate with an open mind. The Delphistudy 9 suggested that for the European chemical industryto contribute even more would require breakthroughtechnologies in other sectors and increased cooperationacross and along value chains.The European chemical industry invests more than 15%of its value added in new and improved manufacturingplants and processes10 —despite a doubling in the cost ofcomplying with EU regulations in the past 10 years11. Growinginvestments in digital technologies offer the potential foranother transformation of the way the industry re-inventsits internal processes, does business and relates to society.In 2017, the sector invested about 10 billion—about 25 million a day—in research and development, includingin finding ways to become more energy efficient and reduceour carbon footprint.Agency (EEA) and Cefic analysis 2018300200OUR GREENHOUSE GAS(GHG) EMISSIONS HAVEFALLEN BY NEARLY 61%SINCE 1990 EVEN ASPRODUCTIONINCREASED BY 83%10001990919952000200520102016
MOLECULE MANAGERS WHERE WE'RE COMING FROM!The industry of industriesValue chain links between energyintensive industriesCementCeramics & RefractoryChemicalsFerro-Alloys & SiliconFertilizersGlassLimeNon-Ferrous MetalsPulp & PaperRefiningSteel10
"W!AgricultureCeramics & Refractory ProductsCementChemicalsCivil Engineering & Specialised Construction ActivitiesComputers, Electronics & OpticalsConcrete, Cement & PlasterConstruction of BuildingsElectrical equipmentElectricity, Gas, Steam & Air Conditioning SupplyFabricated Metal ProductsFerro-Alloys & SiliconFertilizersFood & BeverageFurnitureGlassLand Transport & Transport Via PipelinesMachinery & Equipment N.E.C.Motor Vehicles & Other Transport EquipmentNon-Ferrous MetalsOther Non-Metallic MineralsPharmaceuticalsPrinting & Recorded MediaPulp & PaperRetail TradeRefiningRubber & PlasticsSteelTextiles & LeatherWaste Collection & TreatmentWater Collection, Treatment & Supply & SewerageOther Manufaturing11
MOLECULE MANAGERS WHERE WE'RE COMING FROMWE ARE NOT ALONEEurope is the world’s second largestchemical producing region, behindChina, but that is only half of the story.While China and North America are morefocused on their own markets, Europehas been a phenomenal export success story. Even thoughour relative share of the world market has fallen, Europehas by far the world’s largest chemical trade surplus 48.1 billion in 2017 12 - as a result of the European chemicalindustry’s global performance, especially in specialty andconsumer chemicals as well as in fine chemicals such aspharmaceutical ingredients.Europe is also one of the world’s biggest markets forchemical imports, making it more and more a global centreof knowledge for the transformation of basic chemicals intohigher-value-added products. The EU is the second-largestexport market for China, and the largest overseas market forthe United States.EUROPE HAS BY FARTHE WORLD’S LARGESTCHEMICAL TRADE SURPLUS — 48.1 BILLION IN 2017European chemical producers face growing competitionfrom manufacturers in other regions that often have lessstringent rules, more favourable tax policies and access tocheaper sources of energy and feedstocks. China dominatesthe global ranking of chemical producers, with sales of 1.29 trillion, more than the EU’s 542 billion and the UnitedStates’ 466 billion combined.ChinaEuropeUSASales: 1.29 trillionSurplus: 1 billionSales: 542 billionSurplus: 48.1 billionSales: 466 billionSurplus: 16 billionSource: Cefic Facts and Figures 201812
By 2030, China will likely account for more than half ofglobal chemical production, with the EU and United Statesaccounting for only one quarter of production. Governmentsin the Middle East, meanwhile, are investing heavily todiversify their economies away from oil and gas.The International Energy Agency has forecast that globalchemical industry production will triple by mid-century13,creating a massive business opportunity. How the Europeanchemical industry ultimately fares over the coming 20 to30 years compared with other world regions will dependto a large extent on four factors: our capacity to lead thistransformation, Europe’s investment climate relative tothe rest of the world (including the availability of financingfor the transition to a more sustainable economy), marketgrowth and the ability to trade freely.BY 2030, CHINA WILLLIKELY ACCOUNTFOR MORE THAN HALFOF GLOBAL CHEMICALPRODUCTIONChinaEuropeUSASource: Cefic Facts and Figures 201813
WE CANNOT PREDICT THE FUTURE WITH ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY. WE INVITE YOU TO EXPLORE SEVERAL “WHAT IF’S” WITH US TO HELP ENSURE WE ARE NOT MISSING NEW CHALLENGES AND BETTER OPPORTUNITIES.FACETS OF THE FUTUREWHAT IF.WE HADSUPER-SMART,SUSTAINABLEMARKETS?14In his 20s, John hated shopping. Whoreally wanted to read the fine print onthat barely legible calorie or cost-perkilogram label anyway, or figure outwhich was better, the fair trade or organicbananas? So much drama! Nowadays,Penny, his smart digital assistant, whoalready knows what’s important to him,does most of that thinking for him. Shewhitelists anything new that she thinksmight interest him based on his ethicalshopping criteria. She also knows thathe has been going to the gym moreregularly lately, so she took the liberty ofadding a few more high-protein items tohis shopping list and adjusted his weeklymenu accordingly. “Want to taste anorganic Carmenère, today, John?” thewine section clerk asks as he approaches,his name prompted into the clerk’s ear bythe store’s AI, which will also process theautomated payment as soon as he walksout the door. “Penny says it will go wellwith that organic mushroom risotto thatyou’ ll be eating on Tuesday.”“Love to,” says John. “You know me sowell.”14
If there’s one thing we know for certainabout the year 2050, it’s that technologicaladvancement will exceed all our currentexpectations. Just as with semiconductors andsmartphones, artificial intelligence is likely toevolve far faster and go further and deeper thanwe currently foresee, offering seamless andspeedy advice and empowering better and morepersonalised decision-making. Computers willtalk not only with us but with one another. Botsrunning on quantum computers will make snapdecisions based on scientific consensus, big data,personal preferences and probabilities. AI androbots will replace a lot of drudgery—not only onthe individual scale, but across whole cities, statesand continents. That will reserve human attentionfor roles where creativity, flexibility and strategicdecisions are required.Many retail stores could become smaller, moreexperience-oriented venues because it will bepossible to ship most goods straight from highlyefficient, automated warehouses to homes andoffices on demand. Manufacturing could be almostentirely just-in-time, and increasingly local: Nomore fan shortages when the temperature hits 30degrees Celsius outside!Judging by current trends, much of this innovationcould come from China. Having out-investedEurope and the United States in deep learningresearch and STEM education, China would havea competitive advantage that converts it from animporter of technology to a major exporter.Its huge, homogenous market could act as a giant,hyper-efficient focus group. Centralised decisionmaking could facilitate the deployment of newtechnologies with unbeatable economies of scale.Europe is expected to continue to lead onsustainability. That would ensure that theintegrated value chains of the future are based ondeep sustainability strategies, scientific life-cycleanalysis and fair, reasonable, non-discriminatory,transparent and mandatory data exchanges.Blockchain technology should let people traceall products and even individual moleculesthroughout the value chain. That would enablenew, more sustainable business models builton leasing products rather than owning them.AI could assign product ratings for the threedimensions of sustainability: environmental,economic and social. That would help Europemake minimising carbon footprints a top priority.BOTS RUNNING ON QUANTUMCOMPUTERS WILL MAKESNAP DECISIONS BASED ONSCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS, BIGDATA, PERSONAL PREFERENCESAND PROBABILITIESIf this is a future we’d like, our leaders need to answer a few urgent questions, including these:How will society ensure thatthere is a socially fair transitionto a future dominated by supersmart, sustainable markets, afuture in which no one is leftbehind?How do we decide whichsocietal decisions are madebased on scientific consensusand algorithms, and which areleft to individual choice?15How can we ensure thatEurope leads on globalsustainability standardsfor high tech innovationecosystems, on AI and otherdigital technologies?
MOLECULE MANAGERS WHERE WE'RE GOINGWHEREWE'RE GOINGOur world is shaped by multipletrends and megatrends that interactlike waves, now proceeding orderlyin one direction, other times collidingin unpredictable eddies.We believe demographic, economic,environmental, technological, andgeopolitical15 megatrends will havethe biggest impact on the world andthe European chemical industry in 2050.We consider them each in turn.16
DEMOGRAPHICSThe gap between global havesand have-nots will growECONOMICSA gradual, bumpy shift in powerto emerging economiesENVIRONMENTEurope blazes a sustainabilitytrail, other regions followTECHNOLOGICALNew and disruptive technologiesdrive exponential innovationGEOPOLITICALA more multi-polar worldless dependent on trade,especially in energy17
MOLECULE MANAGERS WHERE WE'RE GOINGDEMOGRAPHICSThe gap between global haves and have-nots will growAccording to United Nations forecasts,the earth’s population will increase tonearly 9.8 billion in 2050, but growthwill not be uniformly distributed 16(See graphic).HELP WANTED:MULTIDIMENSIONAL CHEMISTSThis ever-growing population will increase demand fornatural resources, energy and food. All advanced economies,Europe included, will contend with an ageing populationdue to rising life expectancies and lower fertility rates.In these countries, population growth will slow, stagnateor could even decline, while more and more Europeans livein single-person households. As a region, Europe will havethe world’s oldest population in 2050, with more than 25%of the population over 65 17.Revolutions in automation technologies and artificialintelligence will force European workers to develop a“life-long learning” approach to skills in order to stayrelevant in the labour market throughout prolongedworking lives. This might boost inequality and tensionsin and among societies. It will stress an already strainedpolitical environment within the EU, and prompt longneeded reforms18 .The ageing workforce and labour displacement willincrease fiscal burdens as tax revenues fall and healthcare and welfare costs rise. On the bright side, improvedhealthcare (e.g. regenerative medicine, genomics) willextend the careers of ageing workers, allowing morepeople to have two or more careers in one lifetime19.Some emerging economies such as China and Russia willalso contend with ageing and declining populations. Africa,Southeast Asia and the Middle East, on the other hand, willsee strong growth in population. This, in turn, will increasemigratory pressures on Europe20 but also create crucialbusiness opportunities for Europe, especially in Africa.Demographic and other trends in Europe are expected todrive increased competition for talent that will make it moredifficult and costlier for the European chemical industry —a world leader in talent retention today21 — to attract andretain the scientists and engineers essential to its success.Asia—particularly India—is the only region where the supplyof highly-skilled labour is growing faster than demand.The talent crunch will begin in Europe in 202022 and lastuntil at least 2030, putting it at risk for “unrealised output”,or the potential loss of income, compared with demand,which is attributable to a lack of skilled workers, accordingto research by Korn Ferry. By 2030, this hypothetical losscould total US 8.4 trillion per year across all industriesaround the world, hitting Europe harder than other regionswith higher birth-rates.As a chemical engineer of the future, you will need adifferent mix of skills than the typical organic chemistrygraduate today. As a lab engineer, you will work withartificial intelligence and big data to create newchemical bond and assemble molecules much fasterthan we can today. Graduates will need skills in bothorganic and biochemistry, or organic chemistry andgenome editing. With the ever-growing impact ofdigital tools on communication, our future colleagueswill need to demonstrate superior interpersonal skills,along with enhanced flexibility, managerial agilityand international experience.To counter this megatrend, employers in Europe need tobe more agile, adaptive, and creative. Chemical companieswill need to help universities teach chemical regulation,a subject which is often neglected in curricula. They willneed to hire and retain people with multiple capabilities, forexample engineering and digital, or science and marketing.Increasing digitalisation in factories suggests that allemployees will eventually need enhanced skills. Trainingand re-training need to be permanent, rapid and flexible.EUROPE WILL HAVE THEWORLD’S OLDEST POPULATIONIN 2050, WITH MORE THAN 25%OF THE POPULATION OVER 65Artificial Intelligence will make some current jobdescriptions obsolete by mid-century23, forcing people tolearn new, higher-value jobs. The upside: these jobs providean opportunity for diverse careers and re-orientation asmore routine jobs get automated.The European Commission24 places investment in“education, science, technology, research, innovationand digitalisation as a prerequisite for achieving asustainable EU economy” that meets the UN’s SustainableDevelopment Goals.We couldn’t agree more!18
Regional distribution of global population growthPopulation of the world and its regions in millions 1950-2050.Shaded region: low to high variant. Solid line: medium variant.Source: UN 201510,000Global 9.8 billion5,000Asia2,0001,000AfricaEurope500Latin AmericaNorth 1920102020203020402050
MOLECULE MANAGERS WHERE WE'RE GOINGECONOMICSA gradual, bumpy shift in powerto emerging ec
Accenture, ECOFYS and Korn Ferry as well as the foresight team of the European Commission. Next, working closely with the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS), which monitors more than 100 different trends and megatrends, we identified those of greatest relevance to the European chemical industry and agreed on a set of 32 high-level
