US ABS Credit Trends - Moody's Investors Service

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US ABS Credit TrendsWilliam BlackHead of Consumer ABS New Issue, AmericasDecember 2016

Contents1. Macroeconomic Backdrop2. US Auto ABS3. US Credit Card ABS4. US Equipment ABS5. Emerging ABS Sectors»Marketplace Lending (MPL)»Handset Financing»Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE)»SolarUS ABS Credit Trends – December 20162

1Macroeconomic BackdropUS ABS Credit Trends – December 20163

Strengthening Labor MarketUnemployment Expected to Continue at Current Levels as Consumer Sentiment Remains StableUnemployment rate: Total, (%, SA)Baseline Scenario (November 2016)12011%100Consumer Sentiment: Q1-66 10010%8%7%6%5%806040204%Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s n-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Unemployement Rate9%Source: University of MichiganUS ABS Credit Trends – December 20164

Household Debt Service Ratio, (% of Disposable Inc., SA)West TX Intermediate Spot: Cushing, (FOB per Barrel, NSA)Baseline Forecast (November 2016)Baseline Scenario (November 2016)12.0%12011.5%100Source: Federal Reserve, Moody’s llars per 7Sep-17Mar-18Sep-18Percentage of Disposable IncomeHousehold Debt and Oil Expected to RiseSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Moody’s AnalyticsUS ABS Credit Trends – December 20165

Issuance Tote BoardCumulative Issuance, 2015-2016Cumulative Issuance by Asset Class, 2016Transactions closed through 31 October 2016Percentage, transactions announced through 8 November 201620152016200As Percentage of Dollar Amount180Credit Cards13%160Dollars s8%40ConsumerLoans6%Equipment6%20Source: Moody’s Investors uneMayAprilMarchFebruaryJanuary0Source: Moody’s Investors ServiceUS ABS Credit Trends – December 20166

Spreads on 5-Year Fixed Credit Card ABSSpreads Spike During Crisis But Remains Stable Since 2010 Between 20 and 60 Basis PointsFive Year Fixed Card Spreads (basis 07Jan-070Source: Asset Backed Alert, Deutsche BankUS ABS Credit Trends – December 20167

2US Auto ABSUS ABS Credit Trends – December 20168

Auto Sales and Outstanding Auto LoansSales of New Autos and Light Trucks Will Likely Slow, but Pace Will Remain Strong20,000 1,20018,000 1,00016,000 80014,000 60012,000 40010,000 200Outsanding Auto Loanss (Billions)New Vehicle Sales (Units, Thousands)New Vehicle Sales: Autos and light trucks, (Ths. Units, SAAR)Baseline Scenario (November 2016)Consumer Credit: Motor vehicle loans: Owned and securitized, (Bil. USD, NSA) rce: US Bureau of Economics, Federal Reserve, Moody’s AnalyticsUS ABS Credit Trends – December 20169

Key Credit Themes» Credit quality of new auto loan ABS will remain largely consistent with 2016 pools» Stable economic environment and build-up of credit enhancement will keep creditperformance of outstanding auto loan ABS transactions strong in 2017» Stable used car values will help support auto lease ABS performance, owing tocontinued demand for used vehicles» Floorplan ABS performance will continue to benefit from robust auto sales andongoing consolidation of dealer networks» Idiosyncratic issues owing to recalls, other events will continue to affect some autoABSUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201610

Credit Quality of New Auto Loan ABS Will Stabilize» Credit quality of new auto loans will remain consistent with 2016 transactions, which willhelp performance of new auto loan ABS transactions» Stability of new auto loan origination is a result of slight tightening of underwritingSummary of Collateral and Loan Terms at Securitization Closing by Year of IssuancePrime poolsWA OT (months)WA RT200661.82007Sub-prime poolsWA FICO53.3WA APR(%)6.6WA OT (months)WA RT721WA New(%)75.5WA FICO60.3WA APR(%)17.5577WA 4.473864.870.467.917.457033.22016 Through Q364.354.23.774374.168.463.916.358034.9YearSource: Moody’s Investors ServiceUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201611

Credit Performance of Outstanding Prime Loan PoolsWill Remain Strong» Annualized net loss rates will continue to increase year-over-year but lifetimecumulative net losses will remain within expectations–Prime transactions have incurred higher losses since 2011 due to weakening credit qualityCumulative Net Losses in Prime Auto Loan ABS Pools Have Increased from 2010-11 Cumulative Net Loss2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%14710131619Months Since Closing2225283134Source: Moody's Investors Service, servicing reportsUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201612

Auto Lease ABS Performance Will Remain Strong» The credit performance of auto lease ABS transactions will remain robust in 2017,supported by the steady economic environment; residual value performance will remainsteady due to a stable used vehicle market» Leasing will continue to gain popularity, as reflected by its rising penetration rate– As of Q3 2016, leasing as a percentage of new vehicle sales is at 29%, from 18% in Q3 2010– Credit quality of lessees has been steady both in the general market and in the securitized leasepools, as reflected by consistent credit scores in 2016 compared with 2015» However, lower vehicle trade-in values, along with a looming interest rate increase,could reduce lease affordabilityUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201613

Floorplan ABS Performance Will Continue to Benefitfrom Robust Auto Sales and Consolidation of Dealers» Stable auto sales will continue to be credit positive for dealer floorplan ABS in 2017 bymaintaining the ABS payment rates well above trigger levels.–Auto dealers continue to benefit from high new vehicle sales, as seasonally adjusted annual salesonce again averaged around 17.5 million units in Q3 2016. Demand remains high, enablingdealers to grow further. Consolidation of small dealers will continue as a result of larger dealersputting capital to work through acquisitions.–Larger dealers tend to be less vulnerable to downturns in vehicle sales, because they have othersources of revenue such as selling vehicle parts or providing automotive maintenance» Despite a slowdown in the growth rate of auto sales, as anticipated by Moody’sAnalytics, dealers will be supported by high gross margin parts and service operationsUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201614

Regulators Will Continue to Scrutinize BusinessPractices of Auto Lenders» Regulatory scrutiny of subprime auto lenders is likely to continue» Although the scrutiny could strengthen the industry over the long term if it helps toweed out unethical lending practices, credit performance could decline over the shortterm if regulators require changes to loan servicing and collection practices» As of November 2016 Auto ABS issuers will need to comply with additionalrequirements under Reg AB II, a US Securities and Exchange Commission disclosurerule–Reg AB II mandates loan-level disclosure about securitized pools–The added disclosures will enhance transparency and reporting requirements of auto ABS» For securitizations that close after December 2016, ABS issuers in the public marketwill need to add information in their prospectuses regarding their risk retention, arequirement under the Dodd-Frank Act–The disclosures will include the form of risk retention (horizontal, vertical or a combination ofthe two) and the method of calculating the fair value of the notes and residual interestUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201615

3US Credit Card ABSUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201616

Key Credit Themes» US credit card ABS will continue to perform well through 2017‒Strong economy and seasoned card accounts with high quality collateral drive strong performance» While managed portfolio performance diverges from trust performance, the Big Sixsponsors will maintain their credit strength» Risks will be low for credit card trusts in the near term–Likelihood of significant new account additions is low–Aaa rated notes are highly resilient» Today’s exceptional credit quality and performance will not lastUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201617

US Credit Card ABS Will Continue to Perform WellThrough 2017 as Charge-Offs Will Remain Low» Charge-off rates and total delinquencies continue to remain low, owing to the veryseasoned, high credit quality credit card accounts backing the ABS– A large portion of receivables generated by weaker borrowers exited the card trusts whensponsors charged off their accounts after the recession– Most issuers have not added new receivables in recent years, so trust portfolios contain fewerrisky borrowers and more transactorsCharge-offs and Total Delinquencies Are Low80%YOY ChangeCharge-off Rate50%127YoY ChangeTotal Delinquency Rate40%60%1040%20%8-20%40%4-10%3-20%-30%Percentage (%)6YOY Change (%)0%510%Percentage (%)20%YOY Change ul-15Jan-16Jul-162-60%Source: Moody’s Investors Service based on data from public trust filingsUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201618

US Credit Card ABS Will Continue to Perform WellThrough 2017 as Excess Spread Remains High» The strong economic environment in the US and the high proportion of transactors inthe securitized pools will support this elevated level of payments» Excess spread is at elevated levels because of lower charge-offs, lower coupons onthe bonds, elevated finance charges compared to the prevailing low interest rates,and increased interchangePrincipal Payment Rates and Excess Spread Remain ElevatedYOY ChangePayment Rate (3-Mo Avg)28120%YoY Change3-Month Avg 0%1716-15%YOY Change (%)5%1060%Percentage (%)YOY Change e (%)25%Source: Moody’s Investors Service based on data from public trust filingsUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201619

Today’s Exceptional Credit Quality and PerformanceWill Not Last» Performance of credit card receivables will face risks beyond 2016 as consumer debtand interest rates continues to increase and banks continue to loosen their underwritingstandardsStandards Loosen for Credit Cards as the Economy Recovers from the RecessionNet Percentage of Domestic Banks Relaxing (Tightening) Standards on Credit -70%-80%Note: Data are net percentages of total respondents to the April 2016 Federal Reserve Board Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Percentages above zero indicate relaxingunderwriting standards and stronger demand for credit cards. Percentages below zero indicate tightening underwriting standards and weaker demand for credit cards. Data reflectsdemand for credit cards since Q2 2011 and for all consumer loans before that date.Source: Federal Reserve, Moody's Investors ServiceUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201620

4US Equipment ABSUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201621

Key Credit Themes» Despite slight declines in economic growth, credit quality of Equipment ABS remainstrong in 2016, owing to the financial stability of the underlying obligors– New agriculture and construction equipment ABS continue to exhibit slight weaknessas a result of weakness in the agricultural market.– Uncertain economic environment may affect performance of new and outstandingABS backed by trucking transportation and other equipment loans, such as medical,mining and drilling equipment.– The good credit quality of new and outstanding small-ticket equipment ABStransactions continue to be reflected by the low loss rates on the loans to generallyhigh-quality obligors underlying the equipment contracts in these transactionsUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201622

5Emerging SectorsUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201623

5.1Marketplace LendingUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201624

Key Credit Themes» Marketplace Lending (MPL) originations are hampered by increased regulatoryscrutiny» MPL ABS issuance picks up despite market challenges» Any weakness in the US economy will further stress on the nascent MPL industry» Legal and regulatory risks continue to be at the forefront‒Viability of the partner-bank loan origination model remains uncertain‒Marketplace lenders have altered their strategies and business models to mitigate risk‒Increased regulatory oversight from governing bodies may burden MPL platforms» Recent events shed light to risks related to corporate governance and data quality» Performance of outstanding ABS in 2017 will be stableUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201625

MPL Originations Hampered by Increased Scrutiny» Regulators are looking closely at marketplace lenders as a result of negativedevelopments in 2016 including:‒Lending Club’s CEO resigning amid questions about data manipulation and conflicts of interest‒The weaker than expected performance of some marketplace lending platforms‒Recent court developments that highlighted legal risks associated with the partner-bankorigination modelRapid Growth of Marketplace Loan Originations Ended in 201617.5% 3.517.0% 3.016.5% 2.516.0% 2.015.5% -14 0.0Q2-1414.5%Q1-14 0.5Q4-1315.0%Q3-13 1.0Q2-13Originations (billions)Weighted Average Interest RateWA Interest RateUnsecured Consumer Loan Originations 4.0Source: Orchard Platform, Moody’s Investors ServiceUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201626

5.2Handset FinancingUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201627

Handset Financing Continues to Increase» Seller financing – i.e. installment plans/loans and leases – is now part of mostconsumers’ purchases of mobile phones, reflecting a shift since 2013 away from offersof subsidies for device purchases at all of the Big Four carriers:– Verizon Communications, Inc.– AT&T Corporation– T-Mobile US Inc.– Sprint Corporation» The wide adoption signals the diverse credit quality of borrowers taking on the contractsSprint Sales Illustrate How Consumers Are Moving Toward Phone FinancingSubsidy/otherInstallment plansLeasingTotal 14Sep-1480%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Quarter EndingSource: Company presentations, Moody’s Investors ServiceUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201628

5.3Property Assessed Clean Energy(PACE)US ABS Credit Trends – December 201629

PACE Provides Financing of Home Improvements» PACE programs provide financing of energy efficiency, renewable energy and waterconservation upgrades to residential and commercial properties–Local governments partner with private lenders to provide 100% financing to homeowners foreligible clean energy home improvement projects; homeowners repay the costs through longterm special tax assessments that local governments place on property tax bills–PACE programs are enacted through state legislation, currently established in 33 states and DC–PACE legislation typically specifies that a PACE lien is senior to all pre-existing non-tax liens,including first-lien mortgagesComparison of PACE with Other Asset ClassesTax Liens*Senior PACESubordinate ntaryObligation Assumed by SubsequentProperty OwnerNoYesYesNoFuture Payments Accelerated lly SubordinatedN/AUse of ProceedsN/AProperty ImprovementsProperty ImprovementsAnyTypical LTV LimitN/A15%15%60-97%****Lien TypeSeniority to Mortgage* Liens on properties arising out of delinquent property taxes, assessments, sewer rents, sewer surcharges, water rents, and/or other charges**The decision to join a PACE assessment district is voluntary, but the incurrence of a PACE lien is considered involuntary under some PACE legislation*** Stipulated by PACE legislation in most states such as California**** For agency mortgagesSource: Moody's Investors ServiceUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201630

5.4SolarUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201631

Solar Loans Are Becoming a Larger Share of NewOriginations» Solar loan originations are likely to increase in 2017, resulting in solar loan ABS‒Over half of the systems will be owned rather than leased in 2017 based on GTM Research» As costs of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems decline, more financing options,such as loans, become available‒Some loans might offer more savings than leases and power purchase agreements (PPAs)Customer Owned Systems Will Exceed Third Party Owned for New Residential Solar in 2017Source: GTM ResearchUS ABS Credit Trends – December 201632

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US ABS Credit Trends - December 2016 11 » Credit quality of new auto loans will remain consistent with 2016 transactions, which will help performance of new auto loan ABS transactions » Stability of new auto loan origination is a result of slight tightening of underwriting Credit Quality of New Auto Loan ABS Will Stabilize