The Root Cause Of The Texas Energy Disaster

Transcription

The Root Cause ofthe Texas Energy DisasterPresented to:West Slope COGAMarch 5, 2021JOHN HARPOLEPRESIDENT / FOUNDERHARP@MERCATORENERGY. COM3 0 3 -8 2 5 -1 1 0 0

Largest Forced Outage in Human History“This is the largest trainwreck in thehistory of deregulated electricity.”- Rep. Senator Brandon CreightonSource: “Power Outages Main Cause of Oil, Gas Shut-Ins” Bloomberg, by Naureen S. Malik, Joe Carroll, David Wethe, Mark Chediak, February 25, 20212

Renewable Energy Train Wreck Tour 2009 - 20113

Renewable Energy Train Wreck Tour 2009 - 20114

Renewable Energy Train Wreck Tour 2009 - 20115

Western Energy Alliance/Bentek Study 2008When Wind Blows at Night, Coal Gen Ramps Down6

Why am I interested in all this?Selected Speaking Engagements 2009 - 2011 “Natural Gas: Affordable Energy for the Future”, PLI’s Institute on Energy andEnvironment, Houston, TX, March 2012 “Where Electricity Comes From: Does it Matter to Consumers?”, National Energyand Utility Affordability Conference, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, June 2011 “Role of Natural Gas in Western Electric Markets”, West Coast Canadian/US ElectricMarkets, Law Seminars International, Vancouver, British Columbia, 2010 Participant in Natural Gas Supply Workshop, Sloan Foundation and University ofTexas Bureau of Economic Geology, Austin, Texas, May 2010 “Renewable Energy Mandates & the EPA: A Train Wreck in the Making?”, SouthernGas Association Conference, Orlando, Florida, April 2010Source: Colorado PUC In the matter of the application of Public Service Company of Colorado for approval of its 2007Colorado Resource Plan, Direct Testimony and exhibits of James F. Hill - The effective load carrying capability (“ELCC”)7

6 – 10 Day Outlook on February 12, 2021Source: CIMA Daily Weather and Market Report, Friday, February 12, 20218

Historic Texas Cold Recap: February 2021 15 consecutive days with below averagetemperatures At least 3,000 cold temp records brokenfrom February 12-17, 2021 First ever wind chill warning issued byNWS offices in Lake Charles, Houston &DallasSource: The Weather Channel9

Fundamentals of Electricity Supply and Generation Electricity cannot be stored on a utility scale Demand must be met perfectly by supply – it mustbalance constantlyNuclearCoalNatural GasSolarWindSource: livery-to-consumers.php10

The Fatal Flaw of the ERCOT Market ERCOT is the only grid operator that does not operate a capacity marketthat rewards reliability during peak usage days ERCOT relies solely on an “energy-only market” where generators competeon the price of the energy they produce For power producers in an “energy-only market”, there is no penalty forfailure to deliver during a peak day emergency This market structure resulted in the largest forced power outage in UShistory between February 12 – 18, 2021 Why would politicians choose this type of purpose-driven “energy-only”market that places no extra value on dispatchable generation during peakhours? I believe it was one of many incentives granted to wind energySources: Assigning Blame for the Blackouts in Texas , Climate Etc., Planning Engineer, February 18, 2021The Texas Freeze: Why the Power Grid Failed, The Wall Street Journal, Katherine Blunt and Russell Gold, February 19, 202111

Who is ERCOT? Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is a membershipbased, 501(c)(4) non-profit independent system operator (ISO) It is NOT a government agency and has no regulatory authority ERCOT has four primary responsibilities:1. Maintain system reliability2. Facilitate a competitive wholesale market3. Facilitate a competitive retail market4. Ensure open access to transmissionSource: Ercot.com/aboutIs ERCOT a government agency?, Austin American-Statesman, Nate Chute, February 19, 202112

Who is ERCOT? ERCOT manages the flow of electric power to more than 26 million Texascustomers - representing about 90 percent of the state’s electric load. ERCOT is regulated by the Public Utility Commission of Texas and theTexas Legislature. The PUC is an agency that regulates the state's "electric,telecommunication, and water and sewer utilities” ERCOT schedules power on an electric grid that connects more than46,500 miles of transmission lines and 680 generation units. To avoid federal regulations, ERCOT is an island and is not connected toother independent system operators and regional transmissionorganizationsSource: Ercot.com/about13

North American Electric Power Grids“Officially, there are three U.S.systems, but, in Texas, we like to saythat there are two: The Texas systemand the non-Texas system.”- Professor Wei-Jen(University of Texas at Arlington)Source: Ercot.com/about14

Regional transmission organization (North America)There are 2 Types of Electric Grid System Operators: A regional transmission organization (RTO) in the United States is anelectric power transmission system operator (TSO) that coordinates,controls, and monitors a multi-state electric grid. An independent system operator (ISO) is similarly an organizationformed at the recommendation of FERC.Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional transmission organization (North America)15

Preparing for the Storm – February 9th, 2021ERCOT officials spent 40 seconds on winter storm preparedness at aFebruary 9, 2021 meeting:“It is actually going to be winter here pretty soon. Asthose of you in Texas know, we do have a cold front comingthis way. We’ll probably see our winter peak later this week orin the very early part of next week. And Operations has issuedan operating condition notice just to make sure everyone is upto speed with their winterization and we’re ready for theseveral days of pretty frigid temperatures to come our way.”- Bill Magness (President and CEO of ERCOT)Source: Ercot.com/about16

What is a Peak Day? For ERCOT, a peak day generally occurs in the summer However, 10 days ago, Mother Nature had something else in mind for Texas Why not experience a peak day in the winter?Source: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id 4291517

The Perfect Storm: February 12 – 18, 2021Source: Perfect Storm – Sustained Arctic Weather Exposes Weaknesses in Texas’s Power Industry; Housley Carr; RBN Energy , LLC; February 18, 202118

The Perfect Storm: February 12 – 18, 202119

The Perfect Storm: February 12 – 18, 202120

Fundamental Problems Identified in 2011 NOT CORRECTEDProblem Identified:Transmission operators and distributionproviders generally did not identify naturalgas facilities such as gathering facilities,processing plants, compressor stations orstorage fields as critical and essential loads”Recommendation:“Transmission Operators and DistributionProviders should conduct critical load reviewfor gas production and transmission facilities,and determine the level of protection suchfacilities should be accorded in the event ofsystem stress or load shedding.”21

Energy Supply Changes During FreezeMonday, February 8th through Tuesday February 16th:Wind93%Coal47%Natural Gas450%“All performed as expected ”Source: Fox News, Rove Reacts to Texas Power Grid22

Reaction to the Storm, 8 Days Later on February 17th, 2021ERCOT officials responding to the power outages onFebruary 17th“It needed to be addressed immediately," said Bill Magness,president of ERCOT. “It was seconds and minutes [from possiblefailure] given the amount of generation that was coming off thesystem.”If operators had not acted in that moment, the state could havesuffered blackouts that “could have occurred for months,” andleft Texas in an “indeterminately long” crisis.- Bill Magness (President and CEO of ERCOT)Should they have been surprised?Source: Ercot.com/about23

TX Outage Intensity by CountySource: Perfect Storm – Sustained Arctic Weather Exposes Weaknesses in Texas’s Power Industry; Housley Carr; RBN Energy , LLC; February 18, 202124

How ERCOT’s Energy-Only Supply Auction Works ERCOT has set up the grid/market insuch a way that it acquires a largeamount of power throughcontinuous auctions. Every five minutes, power generatorsin the state electronically bid intoERCOT’s real-time market, offeringto provide chunks of energy atparticular prices.Source: The Night They Drove the Price of Electricity Down, SLATE, Daniel Gross, September 18, 201525

How ERCOT’s Energy-Only Supply Auction Works ERCOT fills the open needs by selecting thebids that are cheapest and that make the mostsense from a grid-management perspective—i.e., the power is being fed into the grid atpoints where the distribution and transmissionsystems can handle it. Every 15 minutes, the bids settle—atthe highest price paid for electricity accepted inthe round. If sufficient supply is not available, no powerproducer is penalizedSource: The Night They Drove the Price of Electricity Down, SLATE, Daniel Gross, September 18, 201526

How ERCOT’s Energy-Only Supply Auction Works“So if 100 MW of electricity are needed, andsome producers offer 60 MW at 50 permegawatt-hour, some offer 30 MW at 80 permegawatt-hour, and others offer 40 MW at 100 per megawatt-hour, all the bidders willreceive the highest price of 100.”Source: The Night They Drove the Price of Electricity Down, SLATE, Daniel Gross, September 18, 201527

Who is to Blame? In an energy-only market, some experts claim thatthe short answer is “no one” Under traditional utility models (capacity models)generators who do not perform are penalized severely Capacity-driven markets (every other RTO and ISOin the US) account for the value of reliability ingeneration resources28

Comparative Reliability Nuclear plants have 18 months of fuel onsite (higher reliability) Coal plants can have 6 months of fuel onsite (higher reliability) Natural gas power generation with pipeline firm transportationagreements to ensure deliverability (higher reliability) Wind reliability not so much Wind is an energy resource NOT a capacity resource – it can onlybe turned down and off, it is not dispatchable like fossil fuelresources29

Railroad Commission of Texas Emergency OrderFriday, February 12th, 2021Until such time as the Commission has specifically approved a utilities curtailmentprogram, the following priorities in descending order shall be observed:A. Deliveries of gas by natural gas utilities to residences, hospitals, schools,churches, and other human needs customers, and deliveries to LocalDistribution Companies which serve human needsB. Deliveries of gas to electric generation facilities which serve human needscustomersC. Deliveries of gas to small industrials and regular commercial loadsD. Large users of gas for fuel or as a raw material where an alternate cannot beusedE. Large users of gas for boiler fuel or other fuel users30

Who is really to Blame? – Texas PoliticiansEd Hirs Has Been Predicting This Mess for Years Ed Hirs, an energy economist at the University of Houston,has repeatedly tried to raise public awareness aboutTexas's vulnerable electric grid. When one prominent Texas politician called for acommission to study the causes of the power failures thatled to the current crisis, Hirs, not to mince words, had thisto say: “No you dumb bastard. You don’t have to go anyfarther than the bathroom mirror to figure it out.”Sources: Ed Hirs Has Been Predicting This Mess for Years, Texas Monthly, Mimi Swartz, February 19, 202131

A Growing Awareness of the Irony32

Energy-Only Market vs. Capacity Market What is the difference between anenergy-only market and a capacitymarket? Will that answer explain who is toblame for the Texas Energy Disaster?33

What does Capacity Factor mean? The capacity factor (CF) of an electric power plant isthe ratio of its actual output over a period of time toits potential output if the plant could operate 100percent of the time The CF for a power plant is calculated by dividing theactual amount of electricity generated by the plantby how much electricity the plant could havegenerated the same amount of time at 100% capacity34

Not All Megawatts are Created Equal35

Are Renewables/Wind the Answer? Electricity production in the US is predicated onreliability, affordability, and security Large amounts of electricity cannot be storedefficiently or economically Wind is an energy resource, not a capacityresource Wind can only be turned down or off Did Texas politicians stack the deck for windenergy?36

What is Economic Dispatch?“The operation of generation facilities to produce energy atthe lowest cost to reliably serve consumers, recognizing anyoperational limits of generation and transmission facilities.”- Energy Policy Act of 2005Not All Megawatts are Created EqualSource: “A Report to Congress and the States Pursuant to the Sections 1234 and 1832 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005”, United States Department of Energy, February 200737

Output is NOT Correlated with LoadTypical 100 MW Wind Plant Generation vs. Hourly System LoadSource: Brett Oakleaf, Invenergy LLC38

Storage Cost Comparison: Natural Gas vs. WindSource: “What’s Wrong with Wind and Solar?”, PragerU, Mark Mills, September 14, 202039

Limited Battery Production and Capacity It would take 500 years for Tesla’s new factory in Nevada, the largest battery factory in the world,to make enough batteries to store one day’s worth of electricity needs for the USSource: “What’s Wrong with Wind and Solar?”, PragerU, Mark Mills, September 14, 202040

Seven Minutes of PowerWorld’s Largest Utility Scale Battery in Operation The world’s largest battery, located in Fairbanks, Alaska, weighs1,300-metric tons and is larger than a football field It can only provide enough electricity for about 12,000 residents,or 38 percent of Fairbanks’ population, for seven minutes That’s useful for short outages, which happen a lot in Alaska, butisn’t effective enough to act as a reserve for solar and wind.Source: Batteries Necessary To Support Solar Power Don’t Exist, Making Green Energy Expensive, BEO Report, Andrew Follett, September 13, 201641

Limited Natural Resources Drive “Green” Energy A 200% - 2,000% increase in mining for rare earth metals will be required to keep up withplanned developments in battery production – almost none of which will occur in the USSource: “What’s Wrong with Wind and Solar?”, PragerU, Mark Mills, September 14, 202042

The Peak of Texas’s Power Outages More than 4.5 million customersin Texas were without powerduring the peak of outages in thestate this week, as freezingtemperatures hit parts of thecountry This map shows activity at 10a.m. on February 16, 2021Sources: Ed Hirs Has Been Predicting This Mess for Years, Texas Monthly, Mimi Swartz, February 19, 2021Poweroutage.us43

Days Without Power in TexasDon’t Texans Deserve the Same Electric Reliabilityas Data Centers? Data centers require that their power have“five-nine reliability” Power must be available 99.999% That only allows for 5 minutes of interruptionin one calendar year Friends of mine in Austin were without powerfor 45 consecutive hours How would you recharge a 4-hour batteryduring that time?44

Hourly Generation MixSource: Ryan Zorn LinkedIn post, US EIA45

What is Reserve Margin Electricity?In ERCOT parlance, the “planning reserve margin” signifies inpercentage terms an amount of installed generation capacityon the system beyond projected peak electricity demand.Although more expensive to maintain, comparatively higherreserve margins typically equate to comparatively lower riskfor blackouts.December 5, 201946

ERCOT has the Lowest Planning Reserve Margins in North America“The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) was tasked by the 2005 Energy Policy Act toaddress America’s electric reliability issues. Their most recent report shows that ERCOT – the ElectricReliability Council of Texas – has the lowest level of reserves of any area in North America:Source: ERCOT Reliability: Systematic Unpreparedness, A Twentieth Century Solution for a Twenty-First Century Problem, Larry Kellerman and Robert McCullough47

National Energy Reliability Council’s Risk DeterminationTable 1: NERC’s Risk Determination of All Assessment Areas5-Year Projected Reserve MarginsAssessment Areas2024 Peak AnticipatedReserve Margin2024 ReferenceMargin LevelExpected Capacity Surplus orShortfall (MW)Assessment ResultThrough -Maritimes26.0%20.0%320AdequateNPCC-New England27.3%17.8%2,261AdequateNPCC-New ource: ERCOT Reliability: Systematic Unpreparedness, A Twentieth Century Solution for a Twenty-First Century Problem, Larry Kellerman and Robert McCullough48

National Energy Reliability Council’s Risk DeterminationTable 1: NERC’s Risk Determination of All Assessment Areas5-Year Projected Reserve MarginsAssessment Areas2024 Peak AnticipatedReserve Margin2024 ReferenceMargin LevelExpected Capacity Surplus orShortfall (MW)Assessment ResultThrough quateWECC-SRSG14.5%11.0%916AdequateSource: ERCOT Reliability: Systematic Unpreparedness, A Twentieth Century Solution for a Twenty-First Century Problem, Larry Kellerman and Robert McCullough49

An Example of One Gas Fired Generator on ERCOTLuminant Gas Fired Generators in Texas (2021)#Power PlantCapacity (MW)Location1Morgan Creek390Colorado City, TX2Odessa – Ector1,054Odessa, TX3Permian Basin325Monahans, TX4Graham Power630Graham, TX5Wise787Poolville, TX6DeCordova260Granbury, TX7Lake Hubbard921Sunnyvale, TX8Lamar1,076Paris, TX9Forney1,912Forney, TX10Midlothian1,596Midlothian, TX11Ennis366Ennis, TX12Trinidad244Trinidad, TX13Stryker685Jacksonville, TXTotal Capacity10,246 Megawatts50

Luminant (Subsidiary of Vistra) Texas Facilities Map51

Natural Gas Supply for the Texas Gas Plant How much natural gas supply is required on a dailybasis to fuel the needs of Luminant gas-fired powerplants in Texas (Assuming 7,000 heat rate)?– 1,721,333 MMBTU / Day If you assume that natural gas pipeline FirmTransportation delivery contracts would be 0.40 /MMBTU for each MMBTU of Luminant demand For approximately 700,000 per day, Luminantthrough pipeline Firm Transportation contractscould guarantee deliveries of natural gas duringpeak time periodsImagine the conversation ?52

How Does Luminant/Natural Gas Generation Compete Against Wind? Luminant starts in the hole in any 5-minute auction if they have toguarantee pipeline deliveries by holding a Firm transportation contract24/7/ 365 days a year Wind energy producers didn’t have to worry about connectivity issues In fact, the Texas State Legislature proposed the CREZ (CompetitiveRenewable Energy Zones) 3,000-mile transmission project to connect18,500 MW of electricity from the Panhandle/West Texas to populationcenters in Dallas/Fort Worth and Austin because wind developerscouldn’t afford it Most every Texas ratepayer pays around 3– 5 per month (and will do sofor a decade) for CREZ, a project that never would have been built if thewind developers themselves had to foot the bill The final buildout of CREZ cost nearly 7 billion of taxpayer dollars53

CREZ Transmission Map54

Other Wind Subsidies in Texas55

Other Wind Subsidies in Texas56

The Effect of the Production Tax Credit (PTC)Negative Power Prices are OK for Wind“I Want My PTC” Wind is bid at the lowest prices Wind operators have another advantage over generatorsthat use coal or natural gas: a federal production taxcredit of 2.3 cents per kilowatt-hour that applies to everykilowatt of power produced Even if wind operators give the power away or offer thesystem money to take it, they still receive a tax creditequal to 23 per megawatt-hour57

Legislators Support Wind GenerationAndrew Barlow, Head of the PUC in Texas is quoted as follows,“Legislators have shown strong support for the energy-onlymarket that has fueled the diversification of the state’selectricity generation fleet and yielded significant benefits forcustomers while making Texas the national leader in installedwind generation.”Source: Assigning Blame for the Blackouts in Texas, February 18, 2021, By Planning Engineer58

Legislators Support Wind GenerationAs noted by the head of the PUC in Texas, anenergy only market can fuel diversificationtowards intermittent resources. It does thisbecause it rewards only energy that is fedinto the grid, not backup power.Source: Assigning Blame for the Blackouts in Texas, February 18, 2021, By Planning Engineer59

Well Texas Won the Competition for Most Wind TurbinesThe five states with the most wind capacity installedat the end of 2019 8,843 MW)(10,201 MW)( 8,172 MW)( 6,128 MW)( 5,973 MW)60

Did Texas PUC Action Drive Natural Gas Prices Higher? The PUC met Monday, February 15 to address the electric “pricing issue”and decided to order ERCOT to set prices administratively at the 9,000/MWh systemwide offer cap during the emergency. 9 / KWH for electricity 2,640.00 / MMBTU for natural gas Stated another way, any price a gas-fired generator paid below 2,640.00for natural gas supply was a good deal to convert a gas molecule to anelectron Reaction: Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith calls for federal regulators toinvestigate possible price gauging of natural gas as spot prices spiked ashigh as 100 times typical levels61

Critical PUC Move – February 15, 2021 Andrew Barlow, spokesman forthe Texas Public UtilityCommission, said that a “systemglitch” caused the price forelectricity to remain artificiallylow at 1,200 per MW According to spokesman Barlow,that is why the TPUC ordered theprice be fixed immediately (onMonday, February 15th) at 9000per MW62

What Broke?“The Black Swan WinterEvent Caused the ERCOTWholesale Market to IncurCharges for WholesalePower of 55 Billion Overa Seven-Day Period, anAmount Equal to What itOrdinarily Incurs over FourYears”Source: In the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas Houston Division, In re: Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, Inc., Case No. 21-30725,Chapter 11, Declaration of Clifton Karnei in Support of Chapter 11 Petition and Emergency First-Day Motions, Filed on March 1, 202163

Did Texas PUC Action Drive Natural Gas Prices Higher? The following 9 pages specifically address natural gas volume, number of deals, and resultingindex for the following three critical trading points related to Texas during the ERCOT crisis:– Panhandle, TX-OKLA– WAHA– NYMEX Henry Hub These postings include the volume in 1,000 MMBTU and the number of deals transactedeach day. You can also find a link to the S&P Global Platts Gas Daily Price AssessmentMethodology Given the volume and number of trades reported at each of the Price Assessment Points, itwould be virtually impossible for natural gas producers to manipulate the spot market fornatural gas64

Gas Price Manipulation? NO WAY!Waha S&P Global Platts Gas Daily IndexDateGas Daily Index PriceVolume*DealsFebruary 5, 2021February 6, 2021February 7, 2021February 8, 2021February 9, 2021February 10, 2021February 11, 2021February 12, 2021February 13, 2021February 14, 2021February 15, 2021February 16, 2021February 17, 2021February 18, 2021February 19, 2021 2.76 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.14 3.26 4.54 11.69 153.62 153.62 153.62 153.62 208.79 64.22 ruary 20, 2021 4.4650783February 21, 2021February 22, 2021February 23, 2021 4.46 4.46 2.585075078388383110*Volume in 000 MMBtu/day65

Gas Price Manipulation? NO WAY!Waha S&PGas Daily IndexWahaGlobalGas DailyPlattsIndex price 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00February 5, 2021February 10, 2021February 15, 2021February 20, 2021Waha Gas Daily Index price66

Gas Price Manipulation? NO WAY!Waha Platts Gas Daily Historical IndexDateGas Daily Index PriceVolume*DealsJanuary 29, 2011January 30, 2011January 31, 2011February 1, 2011February 2, 2011February 3, 2011February 4, 2011February 5, 2011February 6, 2011February 7, 2011 4.125 4.125 4.125 4.470 4.790 5.795 7.295 4.760 4.760 83919191February 8, 2011 4.25052975*Volume in 000 MMBtu/day67

Gas Price Manipulation? NO WAY!NYMEX Henry Hub S&P Global Platts Gas Daily IndexDateGas Daily Index PriceVolume*DealsFebruary 5, 2021February 6, 2021February 7, 2021February 8, 2021February 9, 2021February 10, 2021February 11, 2021February 12, 2021February 13, 2021February 14, 2021February 15, 2021February 16, 2021February 17, 2021February 18, 2021February 19, 2021 2.92 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.18 3.20 3.68 5.88 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 16.96 23.61 4343432922609192929292645826February 20, 2021 4.9928240February 21, 2021February 22, 2021February 23, 2021 4.99 4.99 2.84282282278404040*Volume in 000 MMBtu/day68

Gas Price Manipulation? NO WAY!NYMEX HenryHenryHubHubS&PGas Daily IndexGas GlobalDaily IndexPlattsprice 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00February 5, 2021February 10, 2021February 15, 2021February 20, 2021Henry Hub Gas Daily Index price69

Texas Winter Storm the Damages Deaths: 69Damages: 18 billion (early estimate)4 days of rolling blackoutsCountless empty grocery storesCountless “boil water” noticesSupply chain efficiency shut downZero crude oil exportsDeath knell for retail electric companiesin Texas Exponential increase in gas and electricutility bills70

Atmos Energy Files Form 8K “Liquidity Event” NoticeForm 8KFebruary 19, 2021“Due to the historic nature of this winter storm, the Company experiencedunforeseeable and unprecedented market pricing for gas costs, most notably in ourColorado, Kansas, and Texas jurisdictions, which resulted in aggregated natural gaspurchases during this period of approximately 2.5 to 3.5 billion for thesejurisdictions. These purchases are generally payable at the end of March 2021.” To indicate the scale of this liquidity event, in 2019 SOCAL Gas Company,the largest gas company in the US, with 5.5 million customers, earned 2.8 billion for residential revenue for the entire year71

Customers of Retail Electric Marketers Feel Pricing PainDeAndre Upshaw ofDallas said theelectric bill for his900-square-foot, twostory townhouse wasalso 5,000. The Texas power supplier Griddy, which sells unusual plans with pricestied to the spot price of power on the Texas grid, warned its customersover the weekend that their bills would rise significantly during thestorm and that they should switch providers.72

Not Out in the Cold73

A Return to Normal for Electricity Markets – Friday, February 19th74

The Rhetoric Aimed at the Fossil Fuel Industry“If you’re a young person looking atthe future of this planet andlooking at what is being done rightnow, and not done, I believe wehave reached the stage where it istime for civil disobedience toprevent the construction of newcoal plants that do not have carboncapture and sequestration.– Former Vice President, Al Gore75

Politicians Weigh In on TwitterAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez@AOCFebruary 17, 202176

Green New Deal?AOC’s Former Chief of Staff Admitted Green NewDeal Not About Climate Change“The interesting thing about the Green New Deal,is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all Do youguys think of it as a climate thing? Because wereally think of it as a how-do-you-change-theentire-economy-thing.”Fox News, Washington Post Magazine, July 7, 201977

Gates Proposes US Economic Devastation“In fact, we’re going to have toalmost triple the size of theelectric grid and build all thattransmission. And so, it’s not likethere’s going to be a shortage ofjobs overall, it’s just balancing tomake sure that each communitygets into the plan.”- Bill Gates78

The Real Cost of “Green” Energy A 100 MW Wind Farm has the capacity to power 75,000 Homes but it requires over30,000 tons of iron ore, 50,000 tons of concrete, and 900 tons of plastic to constructSource: “What’s Wrong with Wind and Solar?”, PragerU, Mark Mills, September 14, 202079

Questions for Investigators What impact did the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC)emergency order (prioritizing “human needs”customers over deliveries of natural gas to electricgeneration facilities) issued on Friday, February 12thhave on natural gas supplies for natural gas firedgenerators? Were Firm natural gas pipeline transportationcontracts and firm natural gas supply contracts toelectric generators interrupted?80

Questions for Investigators What impact did the Texas Public Utility Commission(TPUC) order on Monday, February 15th fixing thewholesale price for electricity at 9,000 per MW haveon natural gas prices? What was the “system glitch” described by TexasPublic Utility Commission (TPUC) Spokesman AndrewBarlow that kept the market price at 1,200 per MWwhen it should have been 9,000 per MW? Accordingto Barlow, the commission’s action, in effect, allowedthe price to rise above that artificially low level of 1,200.81

Questions for Investigators Is ERCOT’s Reserve Margin (the lowest Reserve Marginof any grid operator in the US) a sign of adysfunctional market that lacks proper marketincentives for nonrenewable generation facilities? Does the lack of predictable market demand for fossilfuel generators (due to ever increasing marketpenetration by mandated and subsidized renewableenergy ge

program, the following priorities in descending order shall be observed: A. Deliveries of gas by natural gas utilities to residences, hospitals, schools, churches, and other human needs customers, and deliveries to Local Distribution Companies which serve human needs B. Deliveries of gas to electric generation facilities which serve human needs