WOOD's Greek Retreat 2018 - ADMIE Holding

Transcription

WOOD’s Greek Retreat 2018May 2018

DisclaimerThis document contains forward-looking statements that involve risks anduncertainties. These statements may generally, but not always, be identified bythe use of words such as “outlook”, “guidance”, “expect”, “plan”, “intend”,“anticipate”, “believe”, “target” and similar expressions to identify forwardlooking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts,including, among others, statements regarding the future financial position andresults of ADMIE Holding and ADMIE (IPTO), the outlook for 2018 and future yearsas per IPTO’s business strategy and five-year business plan planning, the effects ofglobal and local economic and energy conditions, the impact of the sovereign debtcrisis, effective tax rates, and management initiatives regarding ADMIE Holding’sand IPTO’s business and financial conditions are forward-looking statements. Suchforward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may causeactual results to differ materially, because current expectations and assumptionsas to future events and circumstances may not prove accurate. Actual results andevents could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-lookingstatements for many reasons, including potential risks described in ADMIEHolding’s Greek Information Prospectus originally drafted and approved by theHellenic Capital Market Commission in the Greek language as well as AffiliateADMIE’s (IPTO) Annual Financial Report 31 December 2017.ADMIE Holding S.A. is owner of a 51% stake in “Independent Power TransmissionOperator S.A.” (ADMIE/IPTO).EBITDA Operating Income before Income tax and Financial Income (Expense) Depreciation & Amortization.

Contents1ADMIE Holding & IPTO Overview2Transmission Οutlook3Regulatory Framework4Financial Summary5Appendix (A,B,C)

Safely completing thetransition in year-1,’18 focus shifts totransmission system growth

11,700kmOwned and maintained High-Voltage lines across Greece511,700km is the distance between London, UK and Jakarta, Indonesia

Investment proposition6 Natural monopoly in Greece Growth in the regulated asset base11,700km of HV transmission linesRAB growth up to 2.1 billion in 2021 Recovery in domestic demand InvestmentsConsumption 52TWh highest in six yearsInvestments approx. 1 billion cumulative ‘18-21 Leading TSO as stakeholder Rational regulatory environmentState Grid Corp. of China, holder of 24% IPTO stakewith execution inputIndependent authority prioritizing asset growth New management team Boosting dividend returnsImplementation of a new organization chart, freshpeople in key positionsReduce borrowing costs and establish minimum 50%earnings payoutSource: ADMIE (IPTO)

1.OverviewADMIE Holding trading vehicle for naturalmonopoly ADMIE (IPTO)7

Corporate Structure OverviewATHEX: ADMIEBloomberg: ADMIE GAReuters: ADMr.ATHellenicRepublic51.1%*Silchester &FundsOther 00,000 common sharesOwner of 51% stake in“Independent PowerTransmission Operator S.A.”(ADMIE/IPTO)851.0%25.0%*as on 29 Sep 2017; Hellenic Republic stake via DES ADMIE S.A.24.0%31.03.2018

Key milestonesAugustMayFebruaryTSO legislation(4001/2011)Full OwnershipUnbundling law(4389/2016)ADMIE Holdingest.201192012MarchRAE: newLaunch of Crete regulatoryPeloponnesereview 2018-21 archADMIE (IPTO)est.SGCC bid for24% in IPTOADMIE Holdingtrading debut;IPTO RAEcertification;IPTO deal closingInauguration of PhaseA’ CycladesInterconnection

Corporate governanceShareholder agreement in placeADMIE HoldingADMIE (IPTO) AGM appoints Chairman & CEO ADMIE HoldingProposes Chairman & CEO and Deputy CFO BoD: 5 members2 independent, 3 non-executiveOut of which 3 in key management positions inADMIE (IPTO) ADMIE Holding appoints 3 BoDmembers at ADMIE (IPTO)10 State Grid Corp. of China (SGCC)Approves Chairman & CEO; appoints Deputy CEO, CFO BoD: 9 members2 Hellenic Republic, 3 ADMIE Holding, 3 State Grid, 1Representative of EmployeesSource: Companies, Shareholder Agreement

IPTO 2017 Highlights Electricity transmission 1.6% yoy IPTO system rent 5% yoy on favorable 2Hcomps EBITDA 172.0M, 13.1% yoy Net profit 61.7M Net debt 234.4M* Initiatives by new management well in-progress RAE initiates new, four-year, regulatory period111152TWhStrongest demand since 2010 172.0MReported EBITDA 69.9MFree cash flow*** Excl. 476 million regarding PSO’s account deposited to HEDNO on 5 January 2018 ; **Post-interest; source: ADMIE (IPTO)

2.Transmission Outlook1st year of full ownership unbundling1212

lexports50.950.1Consumption0.020152016Impact of dispersed RESgenerationExcl. Pumping; source: ADMIE 72016System 20152014201320122017Evolution of l 50.020102011 System demand toward60-65 TWh52.01.12.91.12.250.02010 2012: dispersed RESgeneration amountedto 2.3 TWh, while in2016 amounted to 4.7TWh52.52009 Consumption at 52TWh, back to 2010levels60.02008 Highest demand in sixyearsDemand mixMarket demand2007Demand &transmissionHigh

Supply &transmissionSupply mix (TWh)51.250.030.08.84.75.54.820.012.510.0 Net imports at6.2TWh, -29.1% yoy Net imports at 12% insupply mix, lowestsince 2013EUR MNet imports60.040.0 Net production at45.8TWh, 7.9% yoySupply mix 2017 er7%Off-grid30%LigniteNet imports0.0Export mix 2017Import mix 3%FYROM22%BulgariaBulgaria23%Turkey21%Turkey1414* Interconnected capacity only; source: ADMIE (IPTO)

Development of the HETSMain Drivers Besides the needs for demand supply, the main drivers forthe development of the Hellenic Electricity TransmissionSystem are: Interconnection of Greek islands (security of supply,reduction of the energy cost, environmental issues) Accommodation of future RES generation Connection of conventional (thermal) generation New interconnections with neighboring Systems The progress towards the National and European targetsfor an increased RES penetration (40% in the electricitysector) is already noticeable15

Interconnection of the IslandsMain ObjectivesSystem stabilityCost ReductionPSOs elimination16Increase of security of supply for the islands electricity system Drastic reduction of electricity generation cost in the islandsSubstitution of oil units with RES plants and imports from the mainlandMore than 300M /year due to the electricity supply of Crete and 50M /year for the Cycladic islands, from highcost oil-fired unitEnvironmentalbenefits Most of the local old oil-fired units are located near residential and tourist areasThey will be set in “cold reserve” status after the interconnectionRESEnhancement The majority of the energy needs will be met by RES, while the rest will be imported from the mainlandReduction of energy dependence on imported fuelsThe achievement of the major 2020 energy goals of the country, in terms of enhancing RES penetration andreducing CO2 emissions

Overview of the TYNDP 2018 Major ProjectsTop 5 Projects - Works Commencing Before the End of 2018ID Project description5431Crete interconnection (Phase I)2020324.02Crete interconnection (Phase II)2023713.332020Cycladic Islands interconnection (Phases A, (2018 for PhaseB and C) *A and 2019 forPhase B)424.0Second 400 kV branch to Peloponnese(OHL Megalopoli – Korinthos –Koumoundouros)2024111.6201983.1425400 kV150 kVDC1ExpectedTotal projectcommissioni cost 2018ng year2027 ( mIn)First 400 kV branch to Peloponnese (OHLMegalopoli – Patras – Acheloos)* Phase C of Cycladic Islands Interconnection is accelerated according to BoD's decision andthe project will be completed 2 years earlier.17Source: ADMIE (IPTO)Phase D of Cycladic Islands Interconnection has been proposed in the updated TYNDP 20192028 for RAE’s approval.

TYNDP 2019-28 Major ProjectsCycladesCycladesCycladesCycladesPhase APhase BPhase CPhase D201818201920202021- 202220232024PeloponneseCreteCretePeloponnese1st branchPhase IPhase II2nd branch

Interconnection of CretePhases I & IIAtticaPeloponneseIIIAC 2x200MVA132km submarineDC 2x500MW340km submarineCreteInterconnection of Crete to the mainland through two distinct linksThe project is implemented in two phases (I, II)Phase I: Connection Peloponnese to CreteCommissioning: 2020Estimated budget: 324 mn19Source: ADMIE (IPTO)Phase II: Connection Attica to CreteCommissioning: 2023Estimated budget: 713 mn

Interconnection of CycladesPhase A150kV66kV150kV 200MVALavrioTinos150kV 140MVAMykonosSyrosParosRadial Interconnection of Syros island to the mainland (Lavrio), Paros, Mykonos and Tinos islands.11 islands in total connected to the mainland.Completion: April 2018 (Interconnection of Syros and Paros March 2018; Mykonos April 2018)Budget: 250 million 20Source: ADMIE (IPTO)

Interconnection of CycladesPhase B150kV66kVLavrio150kV 200MVATinos150kV 140MVAMykonosSyrosParosNaxosInterconnection of Naxos island to Paros and Mykonos islands (close loop between SyrosMykonos-Naxos-Paros)Reinforcement of the existing interconnections Andros – Evia and Andros - TinosExpected completion: 2019Estimated budget: 72 million 21Source: ADMIE (IPTO)21

Interconnection of CycladesPhase C150kV66kVLavrio150kV 200MVATinos150kV 140MVAMykonosSyrosParosNaxosConstruction of second submarine cable between Lavrio and SyrosExpected completion: 2020Estimated budget: 102 million 2222Source: ADMIE (IPTO)22

Interconnection of CycladesPhase DExpansion to the West and Southern Cycladic IslandsInterconnection of Lavrio - Serifos – Milos – Folegandros - Thira – Naxos (or Paros).Estimated budget for Phase D: 386 mn.It creates an additional strong connecting route to all the Cycladic Islands, ensuring their reliablesupply for many years and also permits wider development of local RES.23Source: ADMIE (IPTO)

Capex Estimation2018 - 212018 - 15715030010020025500Crete ICrete IICycladesExpansion Other System Other ProjectsPeloponnese reinforcementfor userprojectsconnection713Phase D3862383851005217504 year Investment Plan 1.0 billion24324Crete ICrete IICycladesExpansion Other System Other ProjectsPeloponnese reinforcementfor userprojectsconnection10 year Investment Plan 2.3 billionSource: ADMIE (IPTO)

Inauguration of Cyclades Phase A“This is an excellent example of how a company under publiccontrol can accelerate projects, operate efficiently and thuscontribute to the development of the national economy”March 2018Launch of Crete – Peloponnese Interconnection“The Crete – Peloponnese Interconnection, combined with theCrete – Attica Interconnection (which IPTO’s management aimsto realize in the fastest and most efficient way) will ensure thereliability of the long-term supply of Crete”April 2018M. Manousakis, IPTO CEO25

3.Regulatory FrameworkNew, 4yr regulatory period 2018 – 202126

Regulatory overview12017EURRegulatedAsset Base (RAB)2 1.4BInvestments(System & Users)Regulated Rate ofReturnComment 2.1BDelta 50%c10% CAGR ’17-’21 1.0BCumulative ’18-’2137.8%Average 2015-176.7%Average 2018-21Allowed remunerationRegulatory depreciation 126M 55M 130M 77MAllowed Revenue 261M 286M1 For272021presentation purposes; 2 Calendar RAB; 3 gross of asset sales, NWC, Grants, Depreciation; source: RAE, ADMIE (IPTO)27Delta 10% 2% CAGR ’17-’21

Regulatory overview (unchanged from prior)Regulatory Asset Base (RAB)Maintenance & development investments WorkingCapital; no impairment/revaluationAllowed rate of return/WACC*Sovereign risk-adjusted fair return; 100-250bp incentivefor Projects of Major Importance**New Regulated Asset & Rate 0Revenue cap1.0%Allowed Revenue per year detailed across regulatoryperiod; Required Revenue mandated annually0.00.0%20182019RAB (EUR M)2020*WACC on real, pre-tax basis; **as per 2018-21 regulatory period; source: RAE2021Allowed rate of returnNew 4yr regulatory period 2018 – 2021286.3%

Regulated Rate of ReturnRegulatory WACC main 15 2016 2017Average 2015-1720186.5%7.3%9.9%2019 2020 2021Average 2018-21Allowed rate of returnrd pre-taxAllowed rate of returnre pre-taxNew returns reflect lower-risk macro environment and lower companyspecific borrowing costs29*Allowed rate of return net of inflation for presentation purposes; source: RAE

EUR MRAB cumulative 4yr evolutionAverage RAB evolution12.4%CAGR smission investment-driven asset growth30Source: RAE, ADMIE (IPTO)2021

EUR MAllowed Revenue mixAllowed Revenue buildoutAllowed Remuneration9.7%CAGR on43%RAB Remuneration2018201813012655Source: RAE, ADMIE 20202021201920202021Allowed RevenueAllowed RemunerationDepreciationOPEXGrowing RAB remuneration3176Allowed RemunerationDepreciation

4.Financial Summary32

IPTO 2017 checklist2016EUR2017CommentRegulatedAsset Base (RAB)* 1.5B 1.4BRAE impact reflected on2018 RABInvestments(System & Users)142.1M70.0MBackloaded due tounbundling process EBITDA152.0M172.0MIn line with Outlook Net profit/(loss)-2.7M61.7M Dividend payout33* Source: RAE, Resolution 235/2018; source: ADMIE (IPTO)50%33Higher than OutlookAs per ShareholderAgreement

IPTO ’18-’21 outlook2017EUR342021RegulatedAsset Base (RAB)*RAE:RAE: 1.4B 2.1BInvestments(System & Users)70.1MApproximately 1Bcumulative ’18-’21EBITDA172.0MApproximately 220MNet profit/(loss)61.7MApproximately 85MDividend payout50%At least 50%*** Source: RAE, Resolution 235/2018 **As per Shareholder Agreement; source: ADMIE (IPTO)34

IPTO selected itemsBalance sheetEUR M20162017Non-current assets1,617.41,607.4Current assets1,237.12,131.3294.1295.82,854.53,738.7of which: Cash & equiv.*Total AssetsEquity898.1967.2Interest-bearing liabilities498.1530.3Non-current liabilities443.8456.2Current liabilities1,014.51,785.0Total Equity & Liabilities2,854.53,738.7P&L20162017Chg yoySystem rent225.5236.95.0%Total .013.1%EBITDA margin61.1%67.0%5.9 ppOperating Income88.8107.721.2%Net profit/(loss)-2.761.720162017Chg yoyCF from Operations*207.5150.3-27.6%CF from Investments-61.5-55.6-9.6%CF from Financing-40.4-93.0130.4%Change in cash105.71.8-98.3%Reversals/(Provisions &Impairments)Cash flows* Excl. 476 million concerning PSO’s account deposited to HEDNO on 5 January 2018; Pass-through revenues not presented; source: ADMIE (IPTO)35

EUR MADMIE Holding selected itemsBalance sheet2017Non-current assets519.6Current assets2.8of which: Cash & equiv.2.2Total AssetsP&L522.42017Income from Affiliate24.0EBITDA23.0Operating Income23.0Net profit23.0Cash flowsEquityInterest-bearing liabilities-Non-current liabilities-Current liabilitiesTotal Equity & Liabilities36518.73.7522.42017CF from Operations-1.6CF from Investments-CF from Financing3.8Change in cash2.2

RevenueinflectionIPTO RevenuesEUR M256.5248.65.1Transmissionsystem rent4.6 3.2%15.1Other sales18.1236.9225.5 2017 revenues 3.2%yoy System rent increaseby 11.4M3rd party stem rent4.5 Favourable 2Hcomparison driven byaccounting treatmentin 2016130.8121.294.7115.73rd party sales1H'1637Other sales1H'172H'16Pass-through revenues not presented; source: ADMIE (IPTO)2H'17

EBITDArecovery due tosystem rent &efficienciesEUR MIPTO %61.0%60.0%59.0%58.0% 140.0 EBITDA 13.1% yoy OpEx before NetProvisions and excl.D&A -11.4% yoy Voluntary exit plan istaking place in Q1 18Cost reduction ofapproximately 8.5Mon an annual basisfrom 201920162017EBITDAIPTO Provisions7.30.2Early Leave Scheme-3.6201794.39.24.84.32016IPTO OpEx*5.57.1As % of er costs63.762.3201620173rd partycosts3838*Expenses before Net Provisions and excl. D&A for presentation purposes; source: ADMIE (IPTO)

Strong cashflowIPTO Cash flow ladderEUR M35.5*172.014.594.7-57.1 Net debt 234M, flattishin 2H’17 Near-term debtmaturities remain lightprior to additionalexercise ADMIE Holding hascollected interim 3.7Mdividend; is expected toreceive regular dividend 12M-24.9-70.1IPTO debt maturity 19.00.02022Syndicated Bond3969.913.313.313.313.32023202420252026European Investment Bank*Excl. 476 million regarding PSO’s account deposited to HEDNO on 5 January 2018; source: ADMIE (IPTO)2028

Net profit higheron various driversEUR MIPTO Net profit35.661.710.020.0-1.1 EBITDA increase Sharp drop in totalfinancial expensesmainly due toelimination of PPCdebt guaranties Non-recurringdividend-related taxworth 38M in 2016.40-2.7IPTO net profit39.432.2-4.129.5Tax ondividend-38.01H'161H'17Source: ADMIE (IPTO)2H'16Netprofit/(loss)2H'17

Cash flowgenerationCash reserves excludingthe amount depositedto HEDNO pursuant to adecision of the Ministryof Finance's for theSpecial Account forPublic ServiceObligations early thisyear increased only by 1.8M reflecting: Tax payment of 38Mbooked 4Q’1620162017152.0172.065.535.5Tax paid-10.0-57.1Interest paid, net-30.6-24.9Cash Flow from 0.1Free Cash Flow115.469.9Debt repaidNew debtDividend UR millionEBITDAChg in WC,non-cash Provisions & Other*Interim Dividends paid Dividend payment toPPC41Loan ExpensesChange in Cash*Excl. 476 million regarding PSO’s account deposited to HEDNO on 5 January 2018; source: ADMIE (IPTO)

Appendix ARegulatory42

EUR MEUR millionAverage 5.258.376.477.1234.0252.4281.0285.9xWACC (real, pre-tax) Allowed remuneration Authorized OPEX Regulatory Depreciation Allowed revenue43Source: RAENew regulatory period 2018-21

EUR MWACC components44Source: RAE2018201920202021Risk-free0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%Market risk5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%Equity beta0.680.730.670.72Country risk2.3%2.0%1.8%1.5%Cost of equity post-tax6.4%6.4%5.9%5.8%Tax rate29.0%29.0%29.0%29.0%Cost of equity pre-tax9.0%9.0%8.3%8.2%Cost of debt WACC CC real, pre-tax7.0%6.9%6.5%6.3%

EUR MRegulatory Period45Four yearsRegulatory Asset Base(RAB)Undepreciated invested capital maintenance/Allowed Revenue (AR)Operator's Allowed RevenueIn real terms for each yearODepR RAB x WACCIncentiveAR O Dep Rannual operating costsannual depreciation of fixed assetsreturn on employed capital100-250 bp for critical projectsRequired Revenue(RR)Amount recovered through System usage charges K Π1 Π2– Π3 Π4– Π5cost of investments financed by 3rd partiessettlement due to under-/over-recovery of RRsettlement due to deviations from ARamount from auction of Interconnection Capacity Rightsamount from Inter-TSO Compensation Mechanismamount from TSO income from non-regulated activitiesSource: RAEdevelopment capex/ WiP working capital- disposals - subsidiesRR AR K Π1 Π2 - Π3 Π4 - Π5

Appendix BIPTO key financial items46

IPTO P&L items2014201520162017System rent242.3239.7225.5236.9Total 3.8154.8152.0172.0As % of revenues58.8%58.5%61.1%67.0%Operating Income130.69388.8107.7Net profit / (loss)70.035.5-2.761.7EUR millionReversals/ (Provisions & Impairments)Pass-through revenues not presented; EBITDA Operating Income before Income tax and Financial Income (Expense) Depreciation & Amortization; source: ADMIE (IPTO)47

IPTO Balance sheet items2014201520162017Non-current assets1,537.71,597.81,617.41,607.4Current assets1,089.11,151.61,237.12,131.3Total Assets2,626.82,749.42,854.53,738.7Total Equity1,028.01,014.0898.1967.2Interest-bearing liabilities445.1490.2498.1530.3Non-current liabilities287.7360.6443.8456.2Current ,854.53,738.7EUR millionTotal Equity & Liabilities4848Source: ADMIE (IPTO)

IPTO Free cash flow2014201520162017EBITDA183.8154.8152172.0WC, Provisions & Other23.766.465.535.5*Tax paid-3.9--10.0-57.1Interest, net-29.6-31.2-30.6-24.9Cash Flow from -92.4-138.6-142.1-70.1Free Cash Flow82.769.2115.469.9EUR millionSubsidies* excl 476 million regarding PSO’s account deposited to HEDNO on 5 January 2018; source: ADMIE (IPTO)49

Appendix CSGCC50

SGCC footprint & key economic interests State Grid Corp. of China (SGCC)World’s largest electric utility900k km transmission lines in ChinaGlobal top2 Corp. on revenues* ADMIE (IPTO) in Greece24% in 2017CDP RetiADMIESGCCRENTransCo CDP Reti (TERNA S.p.A.**) in Italy35% in 2014 REN SGPS in Portugal25% in 2012 ElectraNet in Australia41.1% in 2012#12 12 TSOs in Brazil100% stakes since 2010 National Transmission Co. in Philippines40% since 200751*2017 Fortune Global 500; **CDR Reti controls 29.85% in Terna SpA; source: CompaniesElectraNet

Thank you!

ContactFor additional information please contact ADMIE HoldingInvestor Relations:Tel: 30 210 3636 936E-mail: office@admieholding.gror visit: www.admieholding.gr

Interconnection of Lavrio - Serifos -Milos -Folegandros - Thira -Naxos (or Paros). Estimated budget for Phase D: 386 mn. It creates an additional strong connecting route to all the Cycladic Islands, ensuring their reliable supply for many years and also permits wider development of local RES.