Transcription
TradersEXPO 2017Tradingthe OpenAl BrooksHow to Trade Price ActionBrooks Trading CourseBrooksTradingCourse.comBrooksPriceAction.com
Main Points H or L usually comes earlySlide2 Most days have early TR, then BO11 Gap openings: 4 trends14 Flags on the open19 2nd entry n.com
BO on Open: 50% Reverse, No Matter How StrongMarket looks for direction early in dayTries one way50% of time, decides it is the wrong wayTest of support or resistance can be very strongStill will reverse 50% of timeStrong selloff on openBecame L of dayStrong rally on openBecame H of Slide 3
Early BO: What Is Chance H or L of Day Already Formed?At the close of any bar,what is the chance that either theH or L of the day has already formed?Bar 7Bar 12The 1st bar has 20% chance ofbeing either the H or L of the dayBy the close of the bar,50% chance the day has alreadymade either the H or LThere is often a 7 am report atthe close of bar 6 that is catalystBy the close of the 1st hour (bar 12),70% chance the day has alreadymade either the H or ide 4
Early BO: What Is Chance H or L of Day Already Formed?By the close of bar 18 (90 min)90% chance the day has alreadymade either the H or LBar 18Nothing magical about the number 18Bar 16 has a slightly lower % chanceBar 23 has a slightly higher % chanceTraders just need an approximate timewhen the probability is highBy the close of bar 80,99.9% chance the day has alreadymade either the H or LKnowing this does not help .comSlide 5
Reversal on 5 Minute Chart: Creates Tail on Daily Chart90% of time, low tail of bull baron daily chart is created byearly reversal up on 5 min chartand top tail is caused bylate PB10% of time, bottom tail of bull dayis created by late reversal upTails in doji day form any time,but one usually created early90% of time, low tail of bear dayis created by late reversal up10% of time, top tail of bear dayis formed by late reversal downHighCloseOpen of dayLow of day90% of time, top tail of bear dayis created by early reversal downDailychart5 minute lide 6
Context: TR on Higher Time FrameIf most days on daily chart weredojis and reversals,especially if within Tight Trading Range (TTR),probability is higher for today being a TR dayTTR on daily chartHigher probability of TR todayExpect strong moves to reverseDaily chart5 min chartIf today broke out below TTR,BO probably will fail and tomorrow will rallyBulls will look for early low omHigh probability of test of open of dayin final 2 hoursSlide 7
Context: Bull Trend on Higher Time FrameIf most days on daily chart were bull trend bars,probability is higher for today having an early lowthat creates tail on bottom of bar on daily chartBulls want an early test of the bears,confident they will be able to trap the bearsand create an early low of dayDaily chart5 min chartTail on bottom of bar on daily chartusually created by failed bear BO on the openon the 5 minute ulls buy the bear closeand the reversal up(here, 2nd signal, bull signal bar)Slide 8
Daily Chart: Tail Forms Early in DayIf most days on daily chart were bear trend bars,probability is higher for today having an early highthat creates tail on top of bar on daily chartBears want an early test of the bull strength,confident they will be able to trap the bullsand create an early high of dayBears sell above weak buy signal barand the reversal down(here, 2nd signal, bear signal bar)Daily chart5 min chartTail on top of bar on daily chartusually created by failed bull BO on the openon the 5 minute lide 9
Main Points: Most Days Have Early TR, Then BO H or L usually comes earlySlide 2 Most days have early TR, then BO 11 Gap openings: 4 trends 14 Flags on the open 19 2nd entry reversals 24BrooksTradingCourse.comBrooksPriceAction.com
Most Days: Early TR, Then BOBO of range of 1st 18 barsHere, not BOM since never went below L of bar 1Breakout Mode (BOM)Here, also 18 bar BOLook for BO and thenabout a Measured Move (MM)Bar 18BO ModeAfter 1st 10 bars:Reversal down from new HBar 18and up from new LToday, bull BO, so 90% chance ofeither bull day or TR daySell failed bull BOand then sell bearBO of 18 bar rangeBear BO, so 90% chance ofeither bear day or TR Slide 11
Most Days: Mostly Sideways, Legs Up and DownGap downWedge Bear Flag (Opening Reversal down from MA)But, close above MA and closed the gapMany big bull barsBecame failed WedgeI am NOT talking aboutthese TR days today(even though they aremore common than trend days)Today, I am talking about trends(breakouts or reversals)DB HL Slide 12
Main Points: Gap Openings – 4 Trends H or L usually comes earlySlide 2 Most days have early TR, then BO 11 Gap openings: 4 Trends 14 Flags on the open 19 2nd entry reversals 24BrooksTradingCourse.comBrooksPriceAction.com
Gap Up: Bull Trend from the OpenMany early big bull bars closing near Hmake bull trend or TR likelyand make bear trend unlikelyMust buy earlyExit longFinal Flag Top3 bear bars so Sell The CloseEnd of day profit taking is commonRally with lots of dojis and overlapping barsLooked like bull leg in TRNegative gaps and Tight Bull Channel soSmall PB Bull omSlide 14
Gap Up: Reversal down, Then Bear Trend from the OpenEven with big gap up,many early big bear bars closing near Lmake bear trend or TR likelyand make bull trend unlikelyConsecutive bull bars on open,then 3 consecutive bear barsclosing near lowsSell The CloseConsecutive Parabolic Wedge BottomsBuy reversal up, andBuy HL mSlide 15
Gap Down: Bear Trend from the OpenMany early big bear bars closing near Lmake bear trend or TR likelyand make bull trend unlikelyConsecutive big bear bars closing below midpointAlways In ShortSell close of follow-through barDespite strong bull bar on open,was Trend From the Open bear trendAfter 3 hour TR, gottrend resumption down in final mSlide 16
Gap Down: Reversal up, Then Bull Trend from the OpenEven with big gap down,many early big bull bars closing near Hmake bull trend or TR likelyand make bear trend unlikelyTrading Range so BO Mode setup for tomorrowExpect either trend resumption upor trend reversal down1st 2 bars are bull barsOne is big bull barEither buy the close of 2nd baror above H of 1st barGap downFailed BO below yesterday’s LTrend from the Open bull trendBuy the Close, bull Micro .comSlide 17
Main Points: Flags on the Open H or L usually comes earlySlide 2 Most days have early TR, then BO 11 Gap openings: 4 trends 14 Flags on the open 19 2nd entry reversals 24BrooksTradingCourse.comBrooksPriceAction.com
Big Gap Up: 8 Bear Bars, Then DB at MA8 bear barsDB with L of day so Opening Reversal up from MA (support)Also, about 50% from rally up from yesterday’s omSlide 19
Gap Up: Wedge PB to MAWedge Bull Flag is usually a High 3It can also be a High 2 if there are 3 bottoms(3 attempts to rally)Opening Reversal up from MA (support)When there is a strong 30 – 60 min rally on the open,often goes sideways for hoursStopBuy above strong buy signal barWedge Bull Flag, but High 2About 50% PB and near MAMicro lide 20
Gap Down: Double Top Bear Flag Just below MAGap downDouble Top so Opening Reversal down from MA (resistance)Possible High of dayHigher probability of profit if sell below bear baror sell the close of consecutive bear mSlide 21
Gap Down: Wedge Bear Flag at MAGap downWedge Bear Flag so Opening Reversal down from MA (resistance)Sell below bear bar for possible H of Slide 22
Main Points: 2nd Entry Reversals H or L usually comes earlySlide 2 Most days have early TR, then BO 11 Gap openings: 4 trends 14 Flags on the open 19 2nd entry reversals 24BrooksTradingCourse.comBrooksPriceAction.com
2nd Failed BO H of Yesterday: Micro DTOn the open, if the market reverses downfrom above yesterday’s high, it might bemaking the H of the dayMicro DT soHigher probability is 2nd signalL2 Opening Reversal downfrom H of yesterdayWedge Bull Flag, HL MTR, Micro DBToo late to also call it an Opening Reversal lide 24
2nd Failed BO above Yesterday’s H: Strong BearL2L1Sell failed BO above yesterday’s high2nd entry sell, below bear bar closing on low,and from higher HAll create higher probability mSlide 25
ORV: 2nd Reversal up from below Yesterday’s LowFailed BO below yesterday’s lowBuy 2nd reversal up (Opening Reversal)Want bull signal .comSlide 26
2nd Failed BO below Yesterday’s L: Reversal Day, Doji DayReversal days usuallyfail to get muchabove H of openOften close near openso doji day2nd failed BO below yesterday’s LDB with L of 2 days agoBear buy signal barOk to buy above bull Slide 27
Review H or L usually comes earlySlide2 Most days have early TR, then BO11 Gap openings: 4 trends14 Flags on the open19 2nd entry n.com
TradersEXPO 2017Tradingthe OpenAl BrooksHow to Trade Price ActionBrooks Trading CourseBrooksTradingCourse.comBrooksPriceAction.com
Low of day Open of day 90% of time, top tail of bear day is created by early reversal down Tails in doji day form any time, but one usually created early 10% of time, top tail of bear day is formed by late reversal down 10% of time, bottom tail of bull day is created by late reversal up 90% of time, low tail of bear day is created by late .
