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Defining “high-impact weatherforecasts” in North America:Some ideas for discussionRebecca E. MorssNational Center for Atmospheric Research(with some ideas from Brian Mills and Jeff Lazo)
THORPEX missionTHORPEX is an international research anddevelopment programme responding to theweather related challenges of the 21stcentury to accelerate improvements in theaccuracy of 1-day to 2-week high impactweather forecasts for the benefit ofsociety, the economy and theenvironmentRebecca E. MorssNAT-SERA Workshop14 August 2006
Rebecca E. MorssNAT-SERA Workshop14 August 2006
THORPEX International Science Plan: Societal &Economic Applications Research Objective #1Identify high-impact weather forecasts: identify the global-to-regional weather forecaststhat have major effects on selected sectors ofsociety and economies within various geographicregions in terms of the economic consequences and the human consequences Studies will investigate which forecasts have thegreatest marginal value, i.e., the greatest addedvalue to users and society in mitigating losses,increasing gains, or improving the management ofresources Rebecca E. MorssNAT-SERA Workshop14 August 2006
Some reasons to think about “what are highimpact weather forecasts?” Embedded in THORPEX objectives – without a clear,comprehensive definition, the program (and weatherprediction) will not reach its potential It’s where meteorology and socioeconomicresearch/applications of weather forecasts intersect Underlies the four focal themes [and most THORPEXsocioeconomic (and other?) research] Can help guide weather forecasting research andproduct development, to help forecasts benefit society(forethought not afterthought)Rebecca E. MorssNAT-SERA Workshop14 August 2006
What are high impact weather forecasts?Rebecca E. MorssNAT-SERA Workshop14 August 2006
Defined by meteorologistsForecasts of hazardous/severe/extremeweather-related eventsForecasts of weather that has a major impact onone or more segment(s) of societyWeather forecast information that individuals ororganizations can use to make decisions thatmitigate harm or enhance benefitsDefined by users / socioeconomic perspectiveRebecca E. MorssNAT-SERA Workshop14 August 2006
Defined by meteorologists
Defined by users / socioeconomic perspective
Forecasts ofhigh-impactweatherForecasts thatfacilitate decisionswith high impactHigh-impactaccelerations inforecastimprovementHigh-impactimprovements inforecasts
Some questions for discussion What are “high-impact weather forecasts”? Should a clear, comprehensive definition of high-impactweather forecasts be developed? (High impact to whom?) Should defining high-impact weather forecasts and forecastimprovements be a research priority? If so, what approaches/methods should be used? How does defining high-impact weather forecasts interact withresearch in the focal themes? With meteorological research? To what extent do high-impact weather and high-impactforecasts overlap? High-impact forecasts and high-impactforecast improvements? Other ideas or important issues?Rebecca E. MorssNAT-SERA Workshop14 August 2006
National Center for Atmospheric Research . society and economies within various geographic regions in terms of the economic consequences and the human consequences . Forecasts of hazardous/severe/extreme weather -related events Forecasts of weather that has
