WIXLIB

Texas Population Projections2010 to 2050In this Brief: The latest populationprojections include morerecent migration trends, anew race/ethnicity category,and expand the agedistribution to 95 years plus. The newly added nonHispanic Asian group isprojected to grow at thefastest rate, growing five-foldby 2050. The Hispanic population willlikely surpass the nonHispanic white population by2022 but is not projected tomake up the majority of thestate population during theprojections horizon. Much of the populationgrowth in Texas is projectedto come from the large urbancounties of Harris, Bexar,Dallas, and Tarrant andneighboring suburbancounties. The fastest growthis projected to occur in thesesuburban counties as well asin the Permian Basin area.The Texas Demographic Center isresponsible for interpreting andcommunicatinginformationondemographic and socioeconomicissues for the State of Texas and thegeneral public and through robustand quality projections, informplanning and policy-making relatedto the demand and provision ofservices across the State.JANUARY 2019The Texas Demographic Center produces populationprojections for 40 years beyond the most recent Census to helpplanners and policymakers anticipate future demand for servicesand pressures on infrastructure. In our most recent set ofprojections, one migration scenario is employed in which themigration patterns observed in Texas between 2010 and 2015 areassumed throughout the projections horizon. Additionally, thisupdated set of projections includes a new race/ethnicity category,non-Hispanic Asian, and expands the age distribution to 95 yearsand older.This document provides a brief overview of the statewidepopulation projections for 2010 to 2050 using the migration trendsobserved in Texas between 2010-2015. This scenario representsour recommended scenario as it most closely reflects the mostrecent migration trends. Projections using the previous migrationscenarios can be accessed by contacting our office. Our fullmethodology can be found on our website.Migration rates between 2010 and 2015 were somewhatlower than migration rates observed in Texas between 2000 and2010. This updated scenario yields a state population approaching47.4 million by 2050, which represents an 88.3 percent increaseover that period.Projected Geographic Distribution of the PopulationOur population projections suggest the majority of Texascounties will experience continued steady population growthbetween 2010 and 2050. This is especially the case for suburban

2010-2015 Migration TrendsDomestic migration made up a larger share of total net migration between 2010 and 2015, whileinternational migration made up a larger share of total net migration between 2000 and 2010. This isone of the most important key differences in how the migration trends employed in the latestpopulation projections differ from the migration trends observed between 2000 and 2010.On average, net migration contributed approximately 178,000 migrants annually to the Texaspopulation between 2000 and 2010. By contrast, between 2010 and 2015, net migration contributedan average of 198,000 migrants annually to the state population. In essence, an additional 20,000 netmigrants were added annually to the Texas population during this most recent migration period thanduring the last decade.Net migration to the state is comprised of domestic migration (or migrants moving to Texas from otherstates) and international migration (or immigrants moving to Texas from another country). Between2000 and 2010, international migration made up over half, or 52 percent, of the total net migration tothe state, and domestic migration contributed about 48 percent of the total net migration. In contrast,between 2010 and 2015, domestic migration made up over 60 percent of the total net migration to thestate, compared to less than 38 percent added from international migration.These differences in the migration patterns employed in our most recent population projections havesignificant implications for the projected findings. For instance, certain parts of the state are mostimpacted by population changes associated with domestic migration, whereas other parts of the stateare more impacted by changes in international migration. The latest projections indicate faster andmore growth in areas characterized by high domestic migration and slower growth in some bordercounties and other areas of the state with high shares of international migration. Additionally,domestic migration is more often characterized by migration of non-Hispanic whites, whereasinternational migration to Texas is more often characterized by migration of Hispanics. Therefore, themost recent projections employing the 2010 to 2015 migration patterns produce an increased rate ofgrowth for the non-Hispanic white population and a slower rate of growth for Hispanics. Indeed, if thepatterns of strong domestic migration (mostly comprised of migration by non-Hispanic whites) and asmaller share of international migration continues into the future, our projections indicate this patterncould mitigate and even compensate for the aging effect of the Baby Boom generation on the Texaspopulation.These projections, like all projections, are beholden to their underlying assumptions, which may ormay not occur. One such key assumption is the migration scenario. Migration trends to Texasbetween 2010 and 2015 represent a high migration period, particularly domestic migration of nonHispanic Whites. More recent data, yet to be incorporated into the Population Estimates andProjections Program, indicate slower and more diversified migration rates to Texas. As we continue todiligently observe emerging demographic trends in Texas and incorporate new data, we will updateour projections.counties surrounding the large urban centers ofDallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, andAustin. All of these suburban counties are projectedto experience a growth rate greater than that of theState as a whole, with 27 of these counties projectedto double their populations by 2050. Additionally, anumber of counties in the Permian Basin andsurrounding the Midland-Odessa area will also seecontinued growth. Although many of the large urbancounties are also projected to experience highgrowth rates, only Harris, Bexar, and Travis Countiesare expected to grow faster than the State. Theseprojections also indicate slower growth in areas ofthe Rio Grande Valley and El Paso County. Lastly,our projections suggest continued population declinein 99 counties, located mostly in West Texas, parts ofEast Texas, and parts of South Texas.Projections by Age, Sex, and Race/EthnicityAgeThe current population projections expand theage distribution to include the population aged 95years and older. This age group is captured in Tables1 and 2 below in the 85 plus age category. Whencompared to the other age categories, the agecategory including Texans over 85 years of age isprojected to grow at the fastest rate. The eldestseniors, those 85 years of age and older, areprojected to nearly quadruple in size between 2010and 2050, approaching 1.5 million. The age categoryincluding those 65 to 84 years of age is projected to2

throughout the projections horizon and ends withslightly more females than males.be the second fastest growing age group, nearlydoubling in size by 2050 to a population of over 6.8million. The younger age categories are projected tocontinue a slower but steady growth, with children,ages 0 to 4 and 5 to 17, projected to be the slowestgrowing age groups.Race/EthnicityThis most recent set of projections includesthe addition of the non-Hispanic Asian race/ethnicitycategory. In previous projections, the non-HispanicAsian group was part of the non-Hispanic Otherracial/ethnic category. Projections indicate this newrace/ethnicity group, non-Hispanic Asians, will growat the fastest rate, when compared to other racial/ethnic categories. The non-Hispanic Asian populationis projected to near 6 million by 2050, with aSexThe 2010 Census showed nearly equalproportions of males and females in the State, withslightly more females than males. Both groups areprojected to approach 24 million by 2050. The sexratio is projected to remain about the sameProjected Percent Population Change in Texas Counties, 2010 to 20502010-2015 Migration ScenarioLess than 0% (99)0% to 25% (76)25% to 50% (20)50% to 75% (18)75% to 100% (14)100% and greater (27)3

population growth rate of morethan 5 times the 2010population. The non-HispanicAsian population is projected tomake up over 12 percent of thetotal State population in 2050.The non-Hispanic Otherrace/ethnicity category,consisting mostly of populationof two or more races, continuesto grow rapidly and is projectedto grow to nearly 2 million by2050, tripling in size during thistime period.The Hispanic populationis growing at a rapid rate aswell as increasing its proportionof the total State population.Our projections suggest theHispanic population will morethan double its size in 2010 toover 20 million by 2050. Thenon-Hispanic black population is also projected todouble in size, growing to over 6 million by 2050. Thenon-Hispanic white population is projected to grow ata steady but slower pace relative to the other race/ethnicity categories, growing to a total population of13.5 million by 2050. Our population projectionssuggest the Hispanic population will likely surpass thenon-Hispanic White population in size by 2022.However, the Hispanic population is not projected tomake up a majority of the Texas populationthroughout this projection’s 2050 horizon.Table 1. Texas Population 2000, 2010 and Projected Population, 2020-2050 by Select CharacteristicsPopulationCharacteristicsCensus 2000Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration ScenarioCensus 20102020203020402050Total NH 3,51413,523,839NH 6,030,795NH 2,908NH 260,82020,191,7500-4 3,017,0915-17 7,730,36718-44 00217,094,93045-64 11,193,34865-84 5,34485 Years Plus4

Table 2. Texas Projected Numeric and Percent Change, 2010 to 2050 by Select CharacteristicsProjected Numeric Change from 2010,2010-2015 Migration cted Percent Change from 2010,2010-2015 Migration Scenario20502020203020402050Total 2117,768,94511,053,77017.8738.5061.3087.22NH .8518.66NH 8.12108.91NH 297.72509.74NH 52.7682.44113.420-4 6.455-17 .6656.5718-44 854.7477.2445-64 3.8785.5365-84 01.23241.87389.99Hispanic85 Years PlusProjected Age Structure of the Populationstructure. Most strikingly, the projected populationpyramid for Texas in 2050 loses much of itspyramidal shape and begins to look more like arectangle, with a slightly tapered base — indicatingdecreasing fertility rates,and a broader “peak” —representing the growingproportion of those in theolder age categories. Whilethe older age categories,ages 60 plus, are projectedto include more femalesthan males, the agecategories including thoseunder 60 years areprojected to include moremales.Population pyramids for Texas in 2010 and2050 reveal key changes in the sex and agePopulation Growth andDecline in TexasCountiesNumerically, muchof the population growth isprojected to come from thelarge urban counties ofHarris, Bexar, Dallas, andTarrant, with each of these5