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Technology Development andManufacturing CompetitivenessSridhar KotaAssistant Director for Advanced ManufacturingThe White House Office of Science & Technology PolicyNIST Extreme Manufacturing Workshop, January 11,2011Revitalizing American Manufacturing“When new technologies aredeveloped and newindustries are formed, I wantthem made right here inAmerica. That's what we'refighting for." - PresidentObama, August 16, 2010 Manufacturing Tax Credits; Loan Guarantees – Renewable Energy FY 11 Budget- Univ. Innovation Ecosystem; Nano manufacturing; NIST-TIP, NSF, DOE DARPA’s 200M/yr investment in Manufacturing FY 12 Budget Guidance on Advanced Manufacturing Support R&D in advanced manufacturing to strengthen U.S leadership inareas of robotics, cyber-physical systems, and flexible manufacturing. PCAST- Advanced Manufacturing Study On Jan 4, 2011 President Obama signed H.R. 5116 America COMPETES Act into law1
InnovationAccording to the recent National Academies reportRising Above the Gathering storm, Revisited – RapidlyApproaching Category 5,5“Innovation commonly consists of being first to acquire newknowledge through leading edge research, being first to apply thatknowledge to create sought-after products and services, oftenthrough world-class engineering; and being first to introduce thosepproducts and services into the marketplacepthroughg extraordinaryyentrepreneurship.”We have been steadily falling behind in “application of knowledge”Taken from Gary Pisano and Willy Shih, “Restoring American Competitiveness”, Harvard Business Review, July 20092
Innovation is the Missing Middle Billions ScienceINPUT 100 Billion AnnualFederal 6242220181614121086420 , , TPUT- 100 BillionAnnual TradeDeficit inAdvancedTechnologyProductsP dDevelopment Prototype &SystemsDevelopmentTechnology & Manufacturing Readiness Levels (TRLs/ MRLs)Manufacturing: Compensation Costs vs. GDP35Data from “U.S. Department of Labor, Bureauof Labor Statistics, August 2010” and UnitedNations 2010.ChinaManufacturing, % GDDP 20083025Philippines20Czech ilItaly15PolandNew umNetherlandsUnited KingdomFranceAustraliaUnited States10GreeceNorway50010203040506070Hourly Compensation Costs in Manufacturing 20083
Economic OutputFigures andStructural CostsTrade balance ( B) (2007) goods servicesSources: 1. Bureau of netEconomic Analysis; 2.Manufacturing as % GDP Daniel S. Hamilton andJoseph P. Quinlan, Germany Hourly Compensation ofand Globalization, 2008; 3. Manufacturing WorkersNSF Science andGovt Research budget in millionsGovt.Engineering Indicatorsof dollars: Industrial Production2010; 4. WorldDevelopment Indicators& Technology / Total expendituredatabase, World Bank,2005; 5. Organization forEconomic Cooperation andDevelopment, Main Scienceand Technology Indicators,2008; 6. Bureau of LaborStatistics, 2010; 7. JeremyA. Leonard, “The Tide isTurning – An Update onStructural Cost PressuresFacing UU.S.SManufacturers,”ManufacturersAlliance/MAPI and theManufacturing Institute,November 2008.Share (%) of Business R&Dexpenditures on ManufacturingR&D as % GDPRaw Cost Index ofManufacturersStatutory Corporate Tax RatesSocial Insurance Expenditures &Other Labor Taxes (% ofcompensation)Industrial Pollution Abatementand Control Expenditures (% ofvalue added)End-User Industry Energy Costs(Index U.S. 100)U.SGermany-823 121-702 199-16 183JapanChinaSource1, 21320.5 32.26 48.2221 27.8033.4 )69.690.089.984.632.68 0.472.53 0.523.39 0.30 87100.0124.7122.837Manufacturing InvestmentsSectorPercent of US GDP Government InvestmentHealth14-16%NIH: 31 billionEnergy8-10%DOE: 11 billionManufacturing11-13%Total federal investment 1 billionAre current manufacturing investments sufficient?Are they:Too generic (no practical relevance)?Too specific (crisis management)?Commercially infeasible (defense-specific)?Too late (large downstream costs of delayed action)?Should we invest in establishing Technology Development Centers to developsystems engineering and manufacturing competencies?4
Establishing a Robust Manufacturing BaseCreating New IndustriesA. Innovation - Radical Technological InnovationDiscoveries, Inventions, Technology Development , Scaling, Manufacturing and CommercializationpB. Earlyy AdoptionC. Access to CapitalFocus of this workshopStrengthening Existing IndustriesA. Technology InnovationIncremental and Radical InnovationsB. Business InnovationAdjAdjacentmarketsk andd adjacentdjproductsdC. Tools and ResourcesSkilled workforce at all levels. Tools to improve quality, mfg flexibility, reduce costs and timingD. Low Structural Non-production CostsTaxes, RegulationsGlobal Models for Technology DevelopmentSuccessful Models in Other CountriesIndustrialR&DUniversities,Federal Labs12German Fraunhofer InstitutesTa i w a n ’s I n d u s t r i a l Te c h R e s e a r c h I n s t .387654Technology and Manufacturing Readiness Levels9ITRI is the Winner – Wall StreetFraunhofer-Gesellschaft: Undertakes applied researchof direct utility to private industry.Clustered approach with pilot production centers toclose the gap between research and productsKorea’s Industrial Core ResearchProjects ProgramJournal Technology Award Sept. 2010.Taiwan’s ITRI“Bell Labs”?Federal Labs?University Research Centers?FFRDCs?Non-profit institutes?5
Enhancing Manufacturing CompetitivenessIT-Enabled ManufacturingModeling and Simulation Broaden and accelerate use of M&S tools by SMEs Cloud computing platforms Incorporate verification, validation, and uncertaintyquantificationSmart/Net Centric Manufacturing5.Data interoperabilityNetworked sensorsMaterial properties and modelsMulti-scale dynamic modeling & simulation and largescale optimization – for real-time process controlScalable, requirements-based multi-level securitySecure Ethernet GatewayEnables part genealogy; captures errors before they propagate, etc.1.2.3.4.Data mining /informaticsInternet 2.020Advancedprocess models/ simulationHighg performancepcomputingpgModel-predictive controlMeasurement /Sensing /MetrologyHigh speeddata collectionAdvanced ManufacturingSuggested Workshop OutcomesDevelop a Multiagency National Manufacturing Initiative to1. Establish a Pilot Technology Development Center to matureManufacturing Readiness of a specific emerging (platform)technology.2. Demonstrate a Scaled IT-enabled Manufacturing facility thatrivals the most advanced manufacturing facility in the world. Public Private Partnerships Strategic investment by leveraging strengths and resources of multipleagencies including leveraging early procurement opportunities OSTP can hhelpl convene andd coordinatedi t6
Rising Above the Gathering storm, Revisited – Rapidly Approaching Category 5Approaching Category 5, “Innovation commonly consists of being first to acquire new knowledge through leadin
