ICR Investor Presentation January 13, 2021

Transcription

ICR Investor PresentationJanuary 13,2021

Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP MeasuresForward-Looking StatementsCertain statements in this presentation constitute “forward-looking” statements, which include any statements related to the novel coronavirus ("COVID-19"),the Freshpet Kitchens Expansion, and the Company's general operating and economic environment. These statements are based on management's currentopinions, expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions or projections regarding future events or future results. These forward-looking statements are onlypredictions, not historical fact, and involve certain risks and uncertainties, as well as assumptions. Actual results, levels of activity, performance, achievementsand events could differ materially from those stated, anticipated or implied by such forward-looking statements. While Freshpet believes that its assumptions arereasonable, it is very difficult to predict the impact of known factors, and, of course, it is impossible to anticipate all factors that could affect actual results. Thereare many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements made herein including, most prominently,the risks discussed under the heading “Risk Factors” in the Company's latest annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with theSecurities and Exchange Commission. Such forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this presentation. Freshpet undertakes no obligation topublicly update or revise any forward-looking statement because of new information, future events or otherwise, except as otherwise required by law. If we doupdate one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be made that we will make additional updates with respect to those or other forwardlooking statements.Non-GAAP MeasuresFreshpet uses certain non-GAAP financial measures, including EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA as a % of net sales, Adjusted Gross Profit, AdjustedGross Profit as a % of net sales (Adjusted Gross Margin), Adjusted SG&A and Adjusted SG&A as a % of net sales. These non-GAAP financial measures should beconsidered as supplements to GAAP reported measures, should not be considered replacements for, or superior to, GAAP measures and may not be comparableto similarly named measures used by other companies.Freshpet defines EBITDA as net income (loss) plus interest expense, income tax expense and depreciation and amortization expense, and Adjusted EBITDA asEBITDA plus gain (loss) on disposal of equipment, plant start-up expenses, non-cash share-based compensation, launch expense, fees related to equity offerings,COVID-19 expenses, and fees associated with due diligence of new enterprise resource planning ("ERP") software.2

Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures (cont.)Freshpet defines Adjusted Gross Profit as gross profit before depreciation expense, plant start-up costs, COVID-19 expenses and non-cash share-basedcompensation, and Adjusted SG&A as SG&A expenses before depreciation and amortization expense, non-cash share-based compensation, launch expense, gain(loss) on disposal of equipment, fees related to equity offerings, and fees associated with due diligence of new ERP software.Management believes that the non-GAAP financial measures are meaningful to investors because they provide a view of the Company with respect to ongoingoperating results. Non-GAAP financial measures are shown as supplemental disclosures in this presentation because they are widely used by the investmentcommunity for analysis and comparative evaluation. They also provide additional metrics to evaluate the Company’s operations and, when considered with boththe Company’s GAAP results and the reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measures, provide a more complete understanding of the Company’s businessthan could be obtained absent this disclosure. Adjusted EBITDA is also an important component of internal budgeting and setting management compensation.The non-GAAP measures are not and should not be considered an alternative to the most comparable GAAP measures or any other figure calculated inaccordance with GAAP, or as an indicator of operating performance. The Company’s calculation of the non-GAAP financial measures may differ from methodsused by other companies. Management believes that the non-GAAP measures are important to an understanding of the Company's overall operating results inthe periods presented. The non-GAAP financial measures are not recognized in accordance with GAAP and should not be viewed as an alternative to GAAPmeasures of performance.Certain of these measures present the company’s guidance for fiscal year 2020, for which the Company has not yet completed its internal or external auditprocedures. The Company does not provide guidance for the most directly comparable GAAP measure and similarly cannot provide a reconciliation to suchmeasure without unreasonable effort due to the unavailability of reliable estimates for certain items. These items are not within the Company’s control and mayvary greatly between periods and could significantly impact future financial results.3

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Mission: Awaken the world to a better way of feeding pets5

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Today’s Objectives Share Preliminary 2020 Results Actual Net Sales result and Adj. EBITDA guidance Strong consumption, distribution, HH penetration and buying rate results Share New Cohort Buying Rate Data First detailed look at 5 years of buying rate data by cohort In conjunction with rapidly growing HH penetration, adds even greater support for long-term growth opportunityfor Freshpet Outline Capacity Plans Outline quarterly capacity for 2021 Highlight opportunities/potential for increased and accelerated capacity expansion7

Preliminary 2020 Results

2020 highlights Strongest growth since 2015 and accelerating 30% Net Sales growth for the year with 33% Nielsen Mega-Channel growth Consumption growth accelerated throughout the year – ending with 38% in Q4 Strong growth occurred despite out-of-stocks and scaled back advertising investment due to capacity constraints Both HH penetration and buying rate grew strongly HH penetration grew 24% for the second year in a row and up from 17% in 2018 Buying rate grew 7% -- up from 1% growth last year Increasing scale delivered cost leverage Adj. EBITDA guidance of 58% vs. YA9

2020 challenges & opportunitiesChallengesCOVID created significant chaos Need to rapidly implement numerous newprotocols to keep employees safe Supply chain interruptions (e.g., ingredients andpackaging, warehouse labor) Ingredient costs (i.e., beef prices) Absenteeism and labor supply issues reducedour production output One-month delay in construction of Kitchens 2.0due to shelter-in-place orders impacted capacityOpportunitiesConsumers’ focus on pets grew Super premium/ultra-premium pet foods grew rapidly Many younger consumers adopted pets for the first timeLower media costs reduced customeracquisition costs (CAC) Continued multi-year trend of continually declining CACCustomers increased their commitmentto multi-fridge programs 7 of top 10 customers have at least 40 of their storeswith multi-fridge tests/expansions underway10

We are operating in a difficult labor market that hascaused some supply challenges11

Increases in production capacity offset by COVID issuesFreshpet ProductionPre-COVIDKitchens 2.0 Roll Line& Incremental StaffingAvg. Pounds/Day390,000COVID FearTesting/Quarantine IncreaseKitchens 2.0 Staffing as ptOctNovDec.Avg. Scheduled Day4th Line 24/7Kitchens SouthKitchens South Second ShiftKitchens 2.0 Bag Line12

Strong consumption growth vs. YA despite capacityconstraintsNielsen Mega-Channel Consumption 35% vs. Capacity constrained by labor shortages8,500,0008,000,000 28.1% vs. YANielsen Mega-Channel consumption vs. YA: Q4: 38% 2020: /20203/4/2020Source: Nielsen Mega-Channel Data thru 202010/4/202011/4/202012/4/202013

Building meaningful share of the categoryFreshpet Share of Wet & Dry wk4.42.526wk2.352wkFreshpet Share of Wet Dry DogTotal US FoodTotal US xAOCMega-ChannelPet Superstore14Source: Nielsen Mega-Channel Data thru 12/26/20

Category growth skews heavily towards most premiumbrandsPrice Tier Growth: Wet Dry Fresh Dog Food52 Weeks: Dollar % Change vs. YAG17.3-0.10.7-20.1-9.1Private Label Wet DryValue Wet DryPremium Wet Dry Dog FoodSuper Premium Wet DryUltra Premium Wet Dry Refrigerated15Source: Nielsen US XAOC Data thru 12/26/20

Adding HH’s quicklyFreshpet Penetration Growth% of HH’s3.15 24%2.752.251.751.252.052.52 24% 28%1.97 17%1.752.55 30%1.51 12% 32%1.14 11%0.752017Total Penetration (%)2018Core Dog Penetration (%)Source: Nielsen HH Panel for the period ending late December 2016-20202019Total Penetration Trendline2020Core Dog Penetration Trendline16

Buying rate growth continuesFreshpet Buying Rate 140.00 134.38 130.00 128.82 128.94 127.64 11%-%-1% 120.00 110.00 100.00 98.84 108.14 109.35 9% 1% 5% 116.94 7% 7% 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.0020172018Total Buying Rate20192020Core Dog Buying Rate17Source: Nielsen HH Panel for the period ending late December 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and company internal data

Distribution growth plateaued during COVID crisisCOVID CrisisFreshpet % 018Source: Nielsen Mega-Channel Data thru 12/26/2055.455.5

Store count growth limited by COVID; 2nd Fridge growthacceleratingNet New StoresStore Count2,07122,7161,14621,570Fridge UpgradesSecond Fridges2,3862,4771,6401,591791786345Q4 2019Q4 2020Qtr. IncreaseQ4 2019Source: Internal company dataYTD IncreaseQ4 2020Total OperatingQ4 2019795YTD NewQ4 2020807705Total OperatingQ4 2019YTD NewQ4 202019

New fridge placements skew heavily to second fridgesNew Fridge Installations by SizeFreshpet Fridge FleetDistribution by Size(US & Canada)(US & Canada 3%2017SmallMediumLargeSource: Internal company data through December 20202 ChillersSmall14%14%5%11%1%201820192020MediumLarge2 Chillers3 Chillers20

Velocity growth has surgedFreshpet VelocityCOVID Crisis / MM 07594572587586538500.0450.0400.021Source: Nielsen Mega-Channel Data thru 12/26/20757745

Distribution is eroding behind out-of-stocks but 2ndFridges adding TDP’s vs. YACOVID CrisisFreshpet Total Distribution Points (TDP)Nielsen 762739709678660644640639600.0550.022Source: Nielsen Mega-Channel Data thru 12/26/20802

Continued strong growth in e-commerce11%33%Online FreshDeliveryLast MileDelivery 85% of ecommerce sales gothrough a FreshpetFridge in Q4Q4 2020 e-commerce results:56%Click & Collect Net sales 192% vs. YA e-commerce 6.1% of sales23

202046202048Canadian business accelerating post-COVIDLeading Canadian Customer Total Weekly SalesLatest week 44% vs. YA24

55,000 10,000 50,000 8,000 45,000 6,000 40,000 4,000 35,000 2,000 30,000 0Panic BuyingTVRegular ep14-Sep31-Aug17-Aug ec25-NovLeading UK Customer Sales By Week11-Nov28-Oct 60,00014-Oct 65,00030-Sep 70,0002-SepLatest week 79% vs. YA16-Sep 80,000Week 01Week 04Week 07Week 10Week 13Week 16Week 19Week 22Week 25Week 28Week 31Week 34Week 37Week 40Week 43Week 46Week 49Week 52Week 02Week 05Week 08Week 11Week 14Week 17Week 20Week 23Week 26Week 29Week 32Week 35Week 38Week 41Week 44UK well ahead of YALeading UK Customer Sales By WeekLatest week 94% vs. YA 75,000 16,000 14,000 12,000

2020 Net Sales & Adj. EBITDA

Q4 2020 Net Sales: Strong growth constrained by supplylimitsFreshpet Net Sales & Adj. EBITDA Performance 90.0 84.5 29% 80.0 70.0 60.0 65.8 27% 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0Q4 2019Q4 2020Net Sales ( millions)27

Post-December guidance snowstorm impacted final netsales results28

Late December Nor’easter left no time to recover lost productionBethlehem ProductionPacked PoundsIncremental Staffing450,000GuidanceSnowstormChristmasNew Year400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000- 1.3 million150,000100,00050,000029

Late December Nor’easter snarled roads and logistics systemresulting in lost shipmentsFreshpet Cases Shipped by Week250,000200,376211,108GuidanceSnowstorm200,000- 1.7 million157,055150,000160,416Christmas:Closed 2 /22-12/2830

Carrying a large backlog of orders into Q1 2021Nielsen XAOC Orders, Shipments & Consumption 18,000,000Drew down trade inventory by anincremental 7-8 million in Q4 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000Snowstorm 4,000,000 2,000,000 -Nielsen XAOC ConsumptionOrders Grossed UpShipments Grossed Up4 per. Mov. Avg. (Orders Grossed Up)4 per. Mov. Avg. (Shipments Grossed Up)31Source: Nielsen Mega-Channel Data thru 12/26/20 and internal company data

Updated 2020 Net Sales & Adj. EBITDA guidance in MillionsPreviousActual/Est.Growth vs YANet Sales (actual) 320 318.8 30%Adjusted EBITDA (est.) 46 46 58%Updated Commentary: Volume cadence: Strong demand continues but supply was constrained in the back half of Q4 due to COVIDtesting/quarantines, holidays and weather Advertising investment: Completed Q4 advertising investment in the US and UK with positive results. Delayed Q12021 advertising to begin at the end of January rather than beginning of January and begin at lighter weights. Gross margin: Q4 adj. gross margin will be hurt by mix shift to bags, increased testing/quarantines that result inlost production, and continued higher cost of beef. Q4 adj. gross margin 46% range. Add Backs: COVID-19 related costs accelerated in Q4 due to testing and quarantines; anticipate 4 million in totalcosts for the year.32

2020: Accelerating growth rate continuesFreshpet Net Sales( millions) 318.8 30%25% CAGR 245.9 193.2 152.4 129.3 27% 27% 18% 14%2016201720182019202033

Capturing scale benefits on bottom lineFreshpet Adjusted EBITDA( millions) 46.0 58% 29.1 43% 17.6-1%2017 20.3 15%201820192020 (est)34

Growth Opportunity: Penetration and Buying Rate

In the early stages of accelerating consumer adoptionRoger’s Diffusion of Innovation ModelCurrent PrimeProspect netsales potential 2 billionand growingTotal Market PotentialTake-offRate of ConsumerAdoption12% of PrimeProspects usingCore Dog products36

Demographic trends are working in our favorDog HHs 2025Dog HHs TodayBuilderBoomerGen XBuilder2%26%Boomer2%18%Gen X22%26%Millennial45%Millennial34%58%Gen ZGen Z31%27%11%37Source: Idexx, 2019 A&U, APPA

Addressable market: 20 million HH’sConsumer ConceptPrime Prospect MethodologyPurchase Interest Among Never UsersTop 2 Box purchase interest28MMDog HH’s20MMDog HH’s16MMProbablywouldbuy2.6x10MM2.6xDog HH’s7.5MMDog HHs6MM4MMSource: 2019 A&U201612MMDefinitelywould buy20193.0x2016201938

5 million more HH’s by 2025Freshpet HH Penetration('000's 202539

Demonstrated track record of driving HH penetrationgains via media investmentFreshpet HH Penetration & Media Spending 100,000,0003.2R2 .983 90,000,0003 80,000,0002.8 70,000,0002.6 60,000,0002.4 50,000,0002.2 40,000,0002 30,000,000Cumulative Media SpendSource: Nielsen 52-week HH panel through 12/26/20 and internal dataTotal 7Dec-16Nov-16Oct-16Sep-16Jul-16 -Aug-161.6Jun-16 10,000,000May-161.8Apr-16 20,000,0001.4

Increasing penetration in all dog HH’s regardless of thesize of the dog or number of dogs in the HHFreshpet HH’s by # of Dogs*Freshpet HH’s by Size of Dog*(Index vs 1 dog in 2018)(Index vs Giant Dog in 45416387289165100 1021 DogGiant(100 lbs)2 Dogs20182019Large(56-99 lbs)Medium(26-55 lbs)Small(11-25 lbs)Toy(under 10 lbs)2020*Source: Numerator Insights, Mini-America, Freshpet shoppers n 2,432 in 2020; Different source than Nielsen HH panel data typically reported thus totals are slightlydifferent. To avoid confusion, we have converted actual numbers to indices to show trends.*Dog Size totals overlap due to multi-dog HHs; ;*Sample size small on Giant dog group41

Halfway to our 2025 8 MM HH goalProgress Towards 2025 HH Penetration Goal4.04.0Current HH PenetrationSource: Nielsen HH Panel for the period ending 12/26/202025 Target HH Penetration42

Opportunity to continue growing the buying rateBuying Rate 117 630CurrentSource: Nielsen HH Panel Data through 12/26/20 and internal company calculationsAvg. Cost to Feed 30 lb Dog43

Quality & satisfaction drives increasing buying rateFreshpet Buying Rate /HH/Year 630 cost to feed 30 lb. dog/year 161.58 150.01 139.28 81.732015 90.292016 96.532017 105.78 106.6520182019 112.342020 120.432021 129.42202220232024202544

Very strong consumer satisfactionFreshpet Product SatisfactionTop Two Box PercentagesAmong Regular FP Users96%90%Rolls98%Roasted Meals% Extremely/Very Satisfied on Product SatisfactionSource: Freshpet Quality and Satisfaction Study, July 201896%100%95%FFTK% Agree Completely/Somewhat on Good Value45

The Freshpet journey begins tentatively – as you wouldexpect with something so different and newSize EntryForm Entry60%Rolls96 OUNCES11%16 OUNCES18%88 OUNCES6%60%80 OUNCES8%1.5 lb72 OUNCES7%40%Bags40%1 lb48 OUNCES2%32 OUNCES7%57%Entered OnSmall Sizes24 OUNCES25%1.75 lb28 OUNCES14%46Source: Nielsen Freshpet Behavioral Study – February 2020, Based on FP Dog Food Only

More than half of new users become regular users2019 Buying Habits of New Consumers Who Entered in 201847%25%54% Became Regular Users12%Became Heavy Users 29%17%% HHsSuper Heavy ( 200 )Heavy ( 120- 200)Regular ( 40- 112)Occasional ( 0- 40)47Source: Nielsen Freshpet Behavioral Study Preview – February 2020

Buying larger quantities per tripPounds per Household (first 30 011121314151617181920212223242526272829Trip NumberFreshpet Behavioral Study – March 20204830

Moving into larger sizes and higher price pointsPrice per Unit (first 30 trips) 10.00 9.54 8.50 7.47 829Trip NumberFreshpet Behavioral Study – March 20204930

Steady increase in dollars spent per tripDollars per Household (first 30 trips) 16.00 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 12.11 11.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 8.96 829Trip NumberFreshpet Behavioral Study – March 20205030

Cohort buying rate data confirms significan

Freshpet defines EBITDA as net income (loss) plus interest expense, income tax expense and depreciation and amortization expense, and Adjusted EBITDA as EBITDA plus gain (loss) on disposal of equipment, plant start-up expenses, non-cash share-based compensation, launch