WIXLIB

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–2026Private LTE/5G networks:worldwide trends andforecasts 2021–2026Ibraheem Kasujee and Michele Mackenzie

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–20262About this reportThis report provides a forecast on the number of private LTE/5Gnetworks that will be deployed between 2021 and 2026 and thecorresponding spend (capex and opex) on those networks. Itprovides a breakdown and analysis of trends by industry sectorand by region. Central and Eastern Europe(CEE)The report is based on several sources, including: Latin America (LATAM)G E O G RAPHICAL C O V ERAG E Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) interviews with operators, vendors and systems integrators Middle East and North Africa(MENA) Analysys Mason reports on the private LTE/5G networkopportunity and existing research on mobile capex and opex.1 North America (NA) Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Western Europe (WE)W HO S H O U L D R E A D T HI S R E P O RTThis report addresses the requirements of executives and analysts that areassessing the demand for private LTE/5G networks. These include: senior executives of IoT and enterprise business units senior executives responsible for R&D and network innovation market analysts responsible for market sizing.1Further Analsys Mason research on private LTE/5G networks is available here.K E Y M E T R ICSNumber of networksCapex forecastOpex forecastNumber of networks and spend(capex and opex) by sector Manufacturing Transport Mining, oil and gas Utilities Public sector Entertainment and retail Healthcare

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–20263Contents [1]5. Worldwide trends6. Worldwide: the number of private LTE/5G networks will grow from a smallbase of several hundred networks in 2019 to 20 600 by the end of 20267. Worldwide: the manufacturing sector will account for the largest share(40%) of private LTE/5G networks in 2026 followed by the mining, oil andgas sector (22%)16. Sector trends: the mining, oil and gas sector provides opportunities forlarger private LTE/5G networks17. Sector trends: smart grid and public safety initiatives are creating demandfor private LTE and 5G networks in the utilities and public sectors18. Forecast methodology and assumptions19. Definitions8. Worldwide: in 2026, most networks will be deployed in emerging Asia–Pacific, driven by China and its government’s investment in industrialtransformation20. Methodology: Private LTE/5G forecast methodology9. Worldwide: combined capex and opex from private LTE/5G networksworldwide will reach USD5 billion by 202622. Worldwide: demand-side drivers for private LTE/5G networks10. Worldwide: private LTE/5G network capex will grow to USD3.1 billionworldwide in 2026 and network opex will reach USD1.9 billion21. Methodology: private LTE/5G forecast methodology23. Worldwide: supply-side drivers for private LTE/5G networks24. Worldwide: demand-side barriers for private LTE/5G networks11. Worldwide: the manufacturing sector will account for most of the spend onprivate LTE/5G networks in 2026 followed by the mining, oil and gassector25. Worldwide: supply-side barriers for private LTE/5G networks12. Worldwide: enterprises in emerging Asia–Pacific will account for 47% ofspend on private LTE/5G networks in 2026 thanks to China’s leadership27. About the authors13. Sector trends29. Research from Analysys Mason14. Sector trends: the manufacturing sector is an early adopter of privateLTE/5G networks, driven by requirements for mobility and cost-effectiveoverlay networks30. Consulting from Analysys Mason15. Sector trends: the regional distribution of private LTE/5G networksdeployed in the transport sector will remain relatively constant over theforecast period26. About the authors and Analysys Mason28. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–20264List of figuresFigure 1: Number of private LTE/5G networks, worldwide, 2019–2026Figure 2: Number of private LTE/5G networks by sector, worldwide, 2019–2026Figure 3: Share of private LTE/5G networks by sector, worldwide, 2020 and2026Figure 4: Share of private LTE/5G networks by region, worldwide, 2020 and2026Figure 5: Total capex and opex, private LTE/5G networks, worldwide, 2019–2026Figure 6: Total private LTE/5G network capex and opex, worldwide, 2019–2026Figure 7: Private LTE/5G networks capex and opex by sector, worldwide,2019–2026Figure 8: Private LTE/5G networks capex and opex by region, 2019–2026Figure 9: Private LTE/5G networks in the manufacturing sector, network shareby region, worldwide, 2020 and 2026Figure 10: Private LTE/5G networks in the transport sector, network share byregion, 2020 and 2026Figure 11: Private LTE/5G networks in the mining, oil and gas sector, networkshare by region, 2020 and 2026Figure 12: Forecast definitionsFigure 13: Simplified methodology for number of networks and capex and opexforecastFigure 14: Number of private networks by network size, worldwide, 2019–2029Figure 15: Demand-side drivers for private LTE/5G networksFigure 16: Supply-side drivers for private LTE/5G networksFigure 17: Demand-side barriers for private LTE/5G networksFigure 18: Supply-side barriers for private LTE/5G networks

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–2026Worldwide: the number of private LTE/5G networks will grow from a small base ofseveral hundred networks in 2019 to 20 600 by the end of 2026The private LTE/5G network market is in its infancy but earlytrends indicate that the number of networks will grow quickly.We forecast that the number of these networks will reach20 600 by the end of 2026.10 0005 000For more information, see Analysys Mason’s Private LTE/5G networks tracker.Further Analsys Mason research on private LTE/5G networks is available here.3 For more information, see Analysys Mason’s Operator opportunities and threats in the public edge cloud computing market.122026202520242023202202021We will continue to track market developments and will revisit andrevise assumptions where necessary as the private LTE/5Gnetwork market evolves.15 0002020We have also drawn on our surveys of, and interviews with, largeenterprises3 that have embarked on digital transformationstrategies.20 0002019We have developed this forecast based on the best informationavailable to us. Sources include Analysys Mason’s Private LTE/5Gnetworks tracker (which captures the details of 156 privatenetworks that are disclosed in the public domain),1 our series ofreports on private LTE/5G network market developments,2 as wellas conversations with vendors, operators and systemsintegrators.25 000Number of private networksThe private LTE/5G network market is only just emerging;according to our estimates, less than 800 of these networks weredeployed at the end of 2020.1 It is therefore challenging toforecast the market because there is no historical data and littletransparency around commercial deployments. Other variablessuch as future deployment models, costs and the TCO, as well asthe threat of competing technologies create further uncertainties.Figure 1: Number of private LTE/5G networks, worldwide,2019–2026Source: Analysys Mason

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–2026ContentsWorldwide trendsSector trendsForecast methodology and assumptionsAbout the authors and Analysys Mason

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–202627About the authorsMichele Mackenzie (Principal Analyst) is an analyst for Analysys Mason's IoT and M2M Services research programme, with responsibility forM2M and LPWA forecasts. She has 20 years of experience as an analyst and conducts research on IoT verticals such as utilities, automotive,healthcare and fleet management. She also writes reports on the role of network technologies such as NB-IoT. Prior to joining Analysys Masonin February 2014, Michele was a freelance analyst with a focus on M2M and IoT technology and trends. She has written reports for MachinaResearch and produced research for other clients in areas such as mobile broadband and digital media. Before that, Michele worked for Ovumfor 12 years, where she focused on consumer mobile applications and held various roles including Practice Leader for Consumer Services. Shehas also worked as a consultant for Ovum's consultancy division.Ibraheem Kasujee (Research Analyst) is a member of the Operator Business Services and IoT research team in London, contributing to the IoTand M2M Services and IoT Platforms and Technology research programmes. He has written on topics including LPWA networks, IoT MVNOs andIoT eSIMs and iSIMs. Ibraheem holds a BSc in Economics from the University of Warwick, and wrote his dissertation on the impact of technologyon sleep.

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–202628Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positionedAnalysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolioConsultingWe deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecomsindustry: communications and digital service providers, vendors,financial and strategic investors, private equity andinfrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcastersand service and content providersOur sector specialists understand the distinct local challengesfacing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.We are future-focused and help clients understand the challengesand opportunities new technology brings.ResearchOur dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the differentservices accessed by consumers and enterprises.We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure andtechnology delivering those services.Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and directaccess to analysts.

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–2026Research from Analysys Mason29

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–2026Consulting from Analysys Mason30

Private LTE/5G networks: worldwide trends and forecasts 2021–2026PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN MARCH 2021Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UKTel: 44 (0)20 7395 9000 Email: research@analysysmason.com www.analysysmason.com/research Registered in England and Wales No. 5177472 Analysys Mason Limited 2021. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic,mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior written permission of the publisher.Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of anyclient-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only.Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by thenormal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark.Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability forloss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.

senior executives of IoT and enterprise business units senior executives responsible for R&D and network innovation market analysts responsible for market sizing. This report provides a forecast on the number of private LTE/5G net