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HTR ReportThoroughbred Quarterly NewsletterApril May June 2019Brought to you by –Ken MassaHandicapping Technology and ResearchContents[1] Front Page[2] Commentary[4] New HTR-Sim[10] Handicapping w/Sim[16] Back PageCan We Tame Luck?User GuideDevelopmentOperation (Easy)ReadoutsSortingExactasVertical WagersHorizontal WagersFinal ThoughtsSoftware NewsThe HTR Report newsletter is converted from a Microsoft Word Document to a .PDF file for viewing withthe free Adobe Reader. The newsletter may be viewed while on-line or the file can be downloaded toyour computer hard-drive for off-line reading and printing.The newsletter is available quarterly. The current edition of the HTR Report is available on the Internetfrom our members’ web site only. The newsletter is included as part of a paid subscription to HTR’smonthly download service ( 119/mo).All proprietary rights to this material belong to HTR alone. No portion of this product may be reproduced,copied or transmitted on the Internet without the express written consent of Ken Massa. All articles andinformation in this newsletter are written by Ken Massa unless otherwise stated. Test data files are provided with permission from Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corp. The test results, analysisand opinions found herein are those of HTR only - Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corpare not responsible for the written contents of this newsletter and cannot be held accountable for anyclaims made in it.
HTR Report2April-May-June 2019New HTR-SimCan we Tame Luck?Psychics, astrologers and fortune tellers rake in millions of dollars with their predictions and futureprognosticating. Yet when asked to give out the name of the future winner of the Kentucky Derby, theyquickly decline to make such a pick by explaining that their 'gift' does not give them license to profitfrom the vision. That is rather hypocritical considering they charge money for their other predictions. Butthey claim the money is a donation to their work of helping humanity.Skeptics then suggest to the clairvoyant that they write down the winner of the Derby and slip it into anenvelope unseen and lock it away until after the race. That way no one can profit from it. As you wouldexpect, they hedge on this as well by suggesting that their abilities don't allow them to participate insomething that could upset the natural course of events.One night, while I was watching the local news, a woman was interviewed who claimed to able to talk tohorses. The wily reporter caught her by surprise and asked if she would talk to the horses at Santa Anitaand ask them to tell her which one would win a race. Her answer, not surprising, was that every horse toldher they would win! Anyone watching this was probably rolling their eyes and had a good laugh.From Houdini to the Amazing Randy, almost all such seers have been debunked and exposed as frauds.For example, I could stamp with date and time a daily prediction that there will be a terrible earthquaketoday. Eventually, of course, a devastating quake occurs somewhere in the world and my prediction lookslegit because I predicted it early and documented the prediction before it happened. It's a trick and thereare many just like it to fool the unsuspecting.In a world of turmoil and unpredictable events, many people still find solace with psychics or even withlegitimate 'expert' predictions such as with the stock market or future elections. We humans seem to havean inherent desire to take control of the chaos and predict the future.Horse Racing ChaosDefining 'chaos theory' is easy. It is the attempt to quantify, measure and make predictions of randomevents. For most people unfamiliar with the thoroughbred sport, they may conclude that the horse racesare basically an indiscriminate event not unlike a roll of the dice. Handicapper's know better, but how farhave we really advanced with all of our ratings and numbers? A 12-horse field of 3yr MCL Fillies going5.0T is about as chaotic as it gets in real time. All of our best efforts to predict the outcome usually endwith a lot of losing bets. Someone taking a wild stab and winning with a longshot might conclude that ourintelligent analysis is largely a waste of time - just pick a number and yell for it.We know from experience that serious high-tech handicapping definitely gives us an edge. But that edgeis shared by many others who use computers and statistics. Profits on the most predictable races are toughto come by. We might be able to outsmart the other bettors and find value now and then, but they seem tocatch up and deplete the ROI eventually.As we gain experience and earn our street-smarts over time, the element of luck stands out as the mostdominant factor in our results. We accept this as a fact of life even if our best intentions and data studieswere favorable. But from time to time, we get it right and everything clicks giving us handsome profitsand motivation us to carry on. High risk/reward and extensive volatility are difficult to control or predict.We rarely know when it is going to be 'our day'. Racehorses do not cooperate no matter how precise themath and analysis. A wild story from 1997 perfectly illustrates this point.
HTR Report3April-May-June 2019New HTR-SimBad Luck / Sim DevelopmentDecember 1997. Richard Sklar, a.k.a. "Richie Fingers" is convicted of race fixing at Los Alamitos. Headmits his felonies and testifies to the reasons for the attempted fix with jockey Richard Pfao. The day ofthe larceny, there was a growing Pick6 carryover at the track. Two of the legs of the P6 sequence, Arabianraces, were ridden by Pfao and were the solid favorites. Eliminating them from the Pick6 ticket would bean enormous advantage. Sklar paid jockey Pfao 2000 up front and promised a piece of the big payofflater (ha!). He then put together a 6000 ticket ( 2 min. at that time) that eliminated the obvious chalkfrom the two Arabian races and spread it out to ensure he would hit it and perhaps take down the entirepot worth over six-figures.He lost anyway.Incredibly, as he admitted to the judge, he did not cash a cent, and blew the entire investment despite thefact that Pfao did his part and both favorites were stiffed out of any chance to win. Sklar, while a conman, was a highly experienced and knowledgeable handicapper. With the added luxury of the bestpossible inside information (stiff the chalk), he should have been a big winner. But alas bad luckintervened and he not only lost all the money, but also went to jail. Bummer, bad beat.Luck seems to be the prime mover that determines our horse racing profits. Or maybe we just haven'tquantified some of the elements we have perceived as luck in the past. The goal of the new HTR-Sim is tocategorize certain aspects that appear inexplicable and help us understand patterns that were seeminglyrandom in the past. The Sim is very easy to operate. But it is advanced PHD material to interpret and weare all going to learn on the fly. Here we go.HTR-Sim DevelopmentWe continue to search for the holy grail that will help us tame the confounding randomness andinexplicable luck of race outcomes. My idea for overcoming this problem was to create a race simulatortool or "HTR-Sim" software. Below is a bullet summary of some of the key features. Utilize the Robot3 platform for building the new Sim program. This saved me enormous time andenergy because Robot3 is the only one of our applications to include every single factor andrating and calculation within HTR. Some of the screens and algorithms in HTR2, for example, arenot part of Tour or MaxVel. Robot3 was the best choice as the foundation for the Sim. Utilize a vast diversity of HTR factors to rank the field. Everything from Fr3 velocity to theImprove rating is involved. Probabilities and ability ratings for each horse are computed based ona rotation of key factors. This means each itineration of the Sim mythical race will feature adifferent handicapping methodology and predicted outcome. Insert random events and racing luck into the algorithm. We have no control in real time with badjockey decisions, wide trips, poor gate breaks, etc. Not to mention, that some horses just won'ttry hard today, or are injured or burned out. All of this is unpredictable pre-race. No matter howbrilliant our analysis of the field, random events conspire more often than not to spoil our bestefforts. The Sim chooses positive and negative adjustments for each horse on a random basis.Every simulated race is different in this respect. A new set of random variables, trouble or luckybreaks are computed during each race simulation. Create a simple and user-friendly method of running the simulator. The operation of HTR-Sim isfaster and easier to understand than any other handicapping screen within HTR. This frees us toobserve and analyze the massive but interesting data.
4HTR ReportApril-May-June 2019New HTR-SimHTR-Sim User GuideIntroduction / Installation and LoadingOur website administrator, John O., will provide a quick installation package from the Subscriber Zone.We will post announcements and links to the installer when the first version is ready during June 2019.As with Robot3, this software is exclusive to HTR subscribers and is not available on the public site orwith the Demo. There are obvious reasons for this including the fact that we want to hold off competitorswho prefer to steal ideas and pilfer someone else's hard work instead of creating their own.Software/Program file nameIcon on Windows DesktopHTRSIM.exeShimmering Gray Pyramid or ArrowheadOperational SkillAnalysis and InterpretationEasyAdvancedThe difference between HTR and most other retailers in the handicapping business is that we test, analyzeand bet on horses every day with our output. Creativity is derived from the old saying "necessity is themother of invention". The necessity these days is keeping one step ahead of our fellow bettors with newtechnology that raises our game and hopefully our ROI as well.The HTR-Sim algorithm has several facets that make it unique. First, it utilizes virtually every factorwithin the HTR realm. Not in combination like a spot play, but as a template to determine the outcome ofan individual race. Then it runs a different race simulation each time. I'll explain the basic methodologybelow. The Sim rotates and selects a primary rating within HTR. Let's choose the pedigree (PED) ratingas an example. The outcome of one race, among the thousands of simulations, is then controlledprimarily by the PED rating. Probabilities and win rates are pre-computed for PED. The next racein the Sim might be based on (K), Fr1, Fr3, PSVX and dozens of other factors. They are rotatedand selected by the algorithm according to probability strength. With a typical Sim run of 1000races, each of these factors might be selected dozens of times. Not to mention, ratings like thePED feature a considerable overlap with other factors. For example, the PED is a key componentof the Pos-Total, Improve rating and k2. All of this means the Sim recipe includes a wide mix ofany predictable real time race result. After determining a rank hierarchy and ability rating, the horses are then subject to a racing-luckvariable adjustment. Some of it is purely random, such as the horse is not feeling well or injuredin the starting gate. However, some aspects of racing luck and trip trouble can be predicted byrunning style. An obvious one is the difference between an "E" (Early) and an "R" (Rear) runner.The "R" must rally from the back of the pack, race wide and face a wall of traffic. The "E" horsesrarely deal with those traffic issues and are in a favorable spot throughout. But the "R" can beatthe "E" in any given simulation if things go right and wrong respectively. Maybe the "E" breaksbad or the "R" is the beneficiary of a hot pace meltdown. With 1000 or more Sim trials, allpossible realistic race outcomes are melded into the final statistics.There you have it. I'm not going to reveal much more about the inner workings of the Sim. Think of it likeeating a sausage. Tastes great, but do we really care about how they made it? The Sim program is a cinchto work with in general. The data emerges quickly and is fascinating. The advanced part is how to applythe stats to real time wagering. We'll learn as we go, just as we did with Robot3.
HTR Report5April-May-June 2019New HTR-SimHTR-Sim User GuideLoad and Opening ScreenThe initial load screen for the Sim looks and functions exactly like our other programs with the menubuttons on the bottom for Time-Zone and Download. Reminder regarding the Download screen, even ifyou use the File Rat, be sure to enter your Username and Password in the boxes on the Download screeninterface so that the "Auto-Scratch" function will work seamlessly.Load OnlyUnlike the Robot3 initial load, HTR-Sim does not require you to load all the files at startup. In fact, itmakes more sense to "Load Only " single day to save time. Typically you'll be working with the Sim ona pre-race analysis. Older files are not needed to process the simulated races. But sometimes you willwant to look back at previous races to assess the accuracy of the simulated statistics. For that purpose,leave the "Load Only" blank and load all your files at startup.Main ScreenAfter entering the Sim interface, look up to the top left. There are the familiar drop-down lists forDate/Track and Race Number. Select a race from the list. Note: as of this writing, I have not placed thesmaller track menu buttons on the screen (i.e. [BEL] [CD] [GP] ) that are present in the other software forquick access. I will add those at a later update along with the [ ][-] buttons for quicker race changes.Run the SimulationAfter you have selected a race, there is only one button left to push to start the simulator.[Start Sim]That's it! This activates the simulator and the screen will flicker and the counter will start to tally. Thetime it takes to complete depends on the handful of options available. The first option located right abovethe "Start Sim" button, is the number of simulation trials desired. A single trial or 'sim' means thecomputer is running a mythical race. There are three choices. 1001,000 (default)10k100kThe first one (100), produces an instant result. In the blink of an eye, a hundred simulated races have beenrun and the statistics are flashed on the screen. The problem with the '100' is the sample size is very smalland the statistics may fluctuate considerably. So the trade-off is instant results vs. volatility.The next setting is 1000 simulations. It is the best choice for the default setting because it provides a nicebalance between a relatively rapid result on the screen with a solid sample size. The '1000' option is agood one for past race assessment and checking results as it is much quicker than the '10000'.The 10,000 or 100,000 options are available for users that want the utmost in precision accuracy.Especially true if evaluating an upcoming card for serious wagering and you have the time for it. Forusers with a fast computer, it is not a big deal as it usually won't take more than 20 seconds anyway. Ifyou have an older or slower computer or monitor, then it may run a little slow, but I found it did not takemore than about a minute even on my slowest old laptop.Sorting the Columns [Sort --- ]There is a single large button that sorts the columns by Pn (default), 1st%, 2nd%, 3rd%, 4th%, WP%,ITM, Top4 and Out. Press the button to toggle the desired sorting. A marker (####) appears above thesorted column and moves along as you press the button to identify the sorted choice. Sorting is notavailable with the 'Text View' option (see next page).
HTR Report6April-May-June 2019New HTR-SimHTR-Sim User GuideScreen View Text or Black BoxOn the main display screen there is a toggle-button for the screen view with two choices. This is availableonly for the Sim output and won't work with the handicapping screen or chart view. [Black Box] (default) [Text Box] (generic text)Initially the list-box is shown with the black background and neon green text. This "black box" option isthe default and is necessary if you want to Sort the columns. Some users may not appreciate the darkergreen on black display and it can be tiring on the eyes. The generic text box is the alternative.The "Text" option displays the Sim results with a white background with black text. There is anotheradvantage to using the text option beyond the fact that it is a bit easier on the eyes. The text displayallows you to use the built-in Windows clipboard functions by right-clicking on the display screen.Choices include "Select All" / "Copy" / "Paste". The output can then be copied into a spreadsheet or aword processor and even made into a PDF if desired.Printing / Print ScreenThe standard [Print Screen] button is available and sends the text directly to the printer. There is no "FullCard Printing" offered with HTR-Sim. That's because each simulation has to be run independently andone at a time. So they must be printed one at a time as well. I will add automatic full card print capabilityin the future. There is also no option for Print-to-File at this time, but that is not needed because theoutput can be extracted if using the "Text Box" function for Copy and Paste (see above).Comma-Delimited ExportAn option is planned to send the output to a comma-delimited file. This will definitely help the cause fora full card report because it will append to a text file on the hard drive for the entire card (date and track),instead of one race at time. As of this writing, I have not fully implemented the comma-delimited output.It takes time to sequence it and write up the file-specification. When it is available, an announcement willbe made on our discussion board.Misc. OptionsShow Race/Program ScreenDisplays a modified HTR Program screen. Payoffs and results are listed at the bottom when available.The generic results do not include the full order of finish and all the exotic wager payoffs, but the Chartview has it all.Show ChartFlashes the final result chart on the screen to review the complete finish as well as the Superfecta and allof the exotic wagering prices.Auto-Scratch HDWAs of this writing, I have not yet implemented a scratch routine, but it is a future possibility. Use theAuto-Scratch from within the other software for the time being.
7HTR ReportApril-May-June 2019New HTR-SimHTR-Sim User GuideFull Field StatisticsThe primary output screen in HTR-Sim is the full-field statistics matrix based on the simulated race trials.We'll go over each of the elements from left to right on the screen. The example is BEL-2, May 25, 2019.I'll remind you about an important aspect to the Sim. Each time you run it, the results will turn out a littledifferent due to the random trip and race-trouble variables. You will not match this result below althoughthe % with 10000 Sim will almost be the same in each trial run.02-BELSat May 25, 201911:02am6.5D----A short header appears at the top of the Sim report to identify the race as shown above. For detailedinformation on the conditions of the race, click the [View Race] button. Horses are listed in post-positionorder to start, but sorting is available for all the key columns.Pn PPHorseMLOAML KLineeSim1st%3rd%4th%W P ITM Tp4OUt1 p01Giant Boo Boo5/25/23.0*2.0*33.3* 21.9* 17.514.955% 73% 88%12%202Flatexcel8/18/18.88.510.613.415.817.024% 40% 57%43%303Proximate to10/1 15/1 16.614.46.511.115.318.3*18% 33% 51%49%4 s04Thefinalcraz4/15.315.818.119.2* 16.534% 53% 69%31%505Thunder's Ho2/1* 2/1* 5.73.124.420.816.515.345% 62% 77%23%6 w06Tale of Mist3/19.69.414.915.818.124% 40% 58%42%4/17/22.5*4.72nd%From left to right the basic program information is shown and the three odds lines. They require noexplanation here, if you need more info on the AML and KLine, refer to the HTR-Pedia.eSim Estimated Fair Odds based on the Sim 1st% (Win) column resu
information in this newsletter are written by Ken Massa unless otherwise stated. Test data files are pro-vided with permission from Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corp. The test results, analysis and opinions found herein are those of HTR only - Handicappers Data Warehouse
