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FY 2019 Luke Air Force BaseTargeted Growth Management PlanImplementatioFY 2019 Luke Air ForcTargeted Growth ManagementLuke Air Force BaseTargeted Growth Management Plantion Plance BasePlanJune 20202020
Luke Air Force BaseTargeted Growth Management PlanPREPARED BY:MARICOPA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTSJune 2020FUNDED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENTThis study was prepared under contract with the Maricopa Association of Governments, with financial support fromthe Office of Economic Adjustment, Department of Defense. The content reflects the views of the Maricopa Association of Governments and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Office of Economic Adjustment.Title VI Notice to the PublicMaricopa Association of GovernmentsThe Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) hereby gives public notice that it is the policy of the agency to assure full compliance with TitleVI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Civil Rights Restoration Act of 1987, Executive Order 12898 on Environmental Justice, and related statutesand regulations in all programs and activities. Title VI requires that no person in the United States of America shall, on the basis of actual orperceived race, color, or national origin, be excluded from the participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be otherwise subjected to discrimination under any program or activity for which MAG receives federal financial assistance. Additional protections are provided in other federaland state statutes for discrimination based on religion, sex, disability, age, gender identity (as defined in paragraph 249(c)(4) of title 18, UnitedStates Code) or sexual orientation.Any person who believes they have experienced discrimination under Title VI has a right to file a formal complaint with MAG. Any such complaintmust be filed with MAG’s Title VI Coordinator within 180 days following the date of the alleged discriminatory occurrence.[Complaints should, at a minimum, include the following information: Your name and address, and a number at which you can be reached during business hours A general description of the person(s) injured by the alleged discriminatory acts A description of the alleged discriminatory act(s) in sufficient detail to enable the Title VI Coordinator to understand what occurred, whenit occurred, and the basis of the alleged discrimination complaint (race, color, national origin, etc.) The letter must be signed and dated by the person filing the complaint or by someone authorized to do so on his or her behalf.]For more information, or to file a complaint, please contact the Title VI Coordinator at (602) 254-6300.Copyright 2020, Maricopa Association of Governments
Table of ContentsAcronymsExecutive Summary. forceOverview .8Transportationand EconomicDevelopmentExisting Conditions.9Future Needs.12Assets.12Challenges.13Key Findings.14Education Implementation Plan.16Workforce and Economic Development.22Overview.22TransportationExisting Conditions.23Future Needs.24Assets.25Challenges.26Key Findings.26Workforce and Economic Development Implementation nEducationand EconomicDevelopmentExisting Conditions.34Future Needs.39Assets.40Challenges.40Key Findings.41Housing Implementation Plan.43Transportation.46Overview.46Existing Conditions.48Future Needs.52Assets.54Challenges.55Key Findings.56Transportation Implementation Plan.57EducationWorkforceand EconomicDevelopmentHousingTransportationFigures & TablesFigure I-1: Targeted Growth Management Plan Study Area.6Figure H-1: 2019 Average Housing Sale Prices in the Study Area.38Figure T-1: Transportation Infrastructure and Proposed ResidentialDevelopments in the Study Area.49Figure T-2: Analysis of Adjacent Intersections.50Table H-1: Total Housing Demand 2020-2026 in the Study Area-Dwelling Units.39Luke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanTable of Contents3
Acronyms#2-1-1 AZ 2-1-1 Arizona Community Informationand Referral ZDVSAZ OEOArizona Coalition for Military FamiliesArizona Department of EducationArizona Department of Economic SecurityAir Force BaseAirman and Family Readiness CenterAnte meridiem (morning)Arizona Public ServiceArizona State UniversityAverage Weekday TrafficArizona Department of Veterans’ ServicesArizona Office of Economic OpportunityBAH Basic Allowance for HousingCDC Child Development CenterCTE Career and Technical EducationDESDoDDoDEADOEArizona Department of Economic SecurityDepartment of DefenseDepartment of Defense Education ActivityDepartment of EducationEDO Economic Development OrganizationsEFMP Exceptional Family Member ProgramEMCC Estrella Mountain Community CollegeMMAG Maricopa Association of GovernmentsMCCCD Maricopa County Community CollegeDistrictMCOR Maricopa Corporate CollegeMCWDB Maricopa County WorkforceDevelopment BoardMDEF McCarthey Dressman EducationFoundationMILCON Military ConstructionMSA Municipal Statistical AreaNPPMPOVPPHPS&TSSTEMSWOTSWHDSWSCTFY Fiscal YearGCU Grand Canyon UniversityHTF Housing Task ForceHTW Housing Task WorkgroupHURF Highway User Revenue FundN/A Not applicableNAU Northern Arizona UniversityNSF National Science FoundationUVTAPTBDTDMTGMPPost meridiem (afternoon)Privately-owned vehiclePersons per householdProfessional, scientific, and technicalservicesScience, Technology, Engineering, andMathematicsStrengths, Weaknesses, Opportunitiesand ThreatsSouthwest Human DevelopmentSouthwest Skill CenterTransition Assistance ProgramTo be determinedTransit Demand ManagementTargeted Growth Management PlanUSAA United Services Automobile AssociationUTIA Universal Technical Institute - AvondaleVA U.S. Department of Veterans AffairsWWeSERVWESTMARCWest-MECWest and SouthEast REALTORS of theValleyWestern Maricopa CoalitionWestern Maricopa Education CenterLuke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanAcronymsIT Information TechnologyK-12 Kindergarten-12th GradeTMLLAFB/Luke AFB Luke Air Force BaseLOS Level of serviceLPN Licensed Practical Nurse4
Executive SummaryIn 2012, the Department of Defense (DoD) designated Luke Air Force Base(Luke AFB) as the training home of 144 new F-35A Lightning II fighter jets.This mission expansion is expected to grow base personnel by an additional2,234 service members by 2026. They are expected tobe joined by an additional 4,717 household members,growing the base-related population by 7,041 to a totalof 23,704 by 2026.The goals of the Luke AFB Targeted Growth ManagementPlan (TGMP) are to support the base and leverage theopportunities presented by the growth in base-relatedpopulation. This TGMP focuses on four key areas: Education, Workforce and Economic Development, Housing,and Transportation. The TGMP consists of four chapters,each presenting independent analyses of resources inthe area surrounding the military installation for each ofthe key areas. These areas were prioritized by the surrounding communitiesand the base because of their importance for the well-being of the residentsand to avoid duplicating work already expended in other studies.The objectives of the Targeted Growth Management Plan are to:1. Identify and assess existing conditions within the targeted areas of education, workforce and economic development, housing, and transportation.2. Determine future needs associated with increased military and veteranpopulation.3. Develop short-term and long-term priorities and potential fundingsources to accommodate this growth.4. Develop planning, coordination and implementation strategies that helpachieve the long-term goals of the stakeholders during this period ofgrowth and change.5. Maintain a central point of coordination for all major stakeholders whoare impacted by the expansion of Luke AFB.6. Establish a clear set of action steps for local communities to managefuture growth and demands for services.Luke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanExecutive Summaryi
Executive SummaryFY 2019 Luke Air Force BaseTargeted Growth Management Plan2019The TGMP draws on the most recent data from the base andsurrounding region, sophisticated modeling techniques, anoutreach survey of local residents and current base personnel,and input from advisory group and focus group members.All study parameters and outcomes are presented in detail in aseries of related papers prepared by the Matrix Design Group.These include the FY 2019 Luke Air Force Base Targeted GrowthManagement Plan Executive Summary, Implementation Plan,Transportation White Paper,Workforce & Economic DevelopmentWhite Paper, Education White Paper, Housing White Paper, andSurvey Report.Community and stakeholder input was integral to the preparation of theTGMP and its associated documents. Each strategy and recommendedcourse of action was vetted by a wide group of stakeholders and expertsin the fields of education, housing, real estate, transportation, and economic development. This group includes representatives employed by the surrounding cities, Maricopa County, the offices of state and federal electedofficials, as well as representatives from industry groups and the nonprofitsector. For a list of participants see the Acknowledgments.For each targeted sector, the TGMP identifies the existing conditions, futureneeds, assets, challenges, key findings, and implementation plan for leveraging opportunities and supporting the mission expansion. Each proposedstrategy in the implementation plan identifies potential task leads and partners, estimated costs and funding sources, appropriate times to initiate eachcourse of action, and other information to help guide implementation. Asummary of the key findings and the goals addressed in each sector’s implementation plan are presented below.iiLuke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanExecutive Summary
EDUCATIONSummary of Key FindingsThe schools in the Study Area are well-positioned to absorb the anticipatedgrowth in the student population related and unrelated to mission expansion. Primary and secondary schools are numerous, optimally located, andwell-performing, including where the greatest densities of school-age children are expected to reside.There is a need for reliable, updated and comprehensiveinformation about home-based childcare and early learning opportunities in the Study Area for military families.Off-base early learning opportunities and home-basedpre-K and childcare options are estimated to be sufficient to meet the increasing demand expected withmission expansion and population growth. However,the on-base childcare center is at capacity and cannot be expanded. The inability to meet increased demand can be expectedto persist as more personnel is assigned to the base. Access to quality, onbase and affordable childcare that accommodates extended and nontraditional working shifts is a continuing concern for military families.Education Implementation Plan GoalsThe Education Implementation Plan proposes a number of strategies to increase access to childcare, pre-school and K-12 educational opportunities sothat childcare and educational needs of incoming personnel are met. Strategies E1-E6 and their associated sub-strategies address the following goals:1. Improve the reliability and accessibility of information about home-basedcare and educational opportunities for young children.2. Increase the number and accessibility of childcare providers in the StudyArea who can accommodate the needs of military families.3. Increase awareness of financial assistance programs that subsidize the primary care and education of young children and of childcare and early learning programs that serve qualifying, low-income families (e.g., Head Start).4. Increase the capacity of the Child Development Center through buildingexpansion and formal partnerships with civilian programs.5. Improve the availability and quality of key programming at schools withlower Arizona Department of Education (ADE) ratings.6. Increase school district administrators’ and educators’ awareness of thechallenges military families face as they transition into new communitiesand schools; increase students’ awareness of support available to them attheir local schools.Luke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanExecutive Summaryiii
WORKFORCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSummary of Key FindingsCurrently, the defense-related industry in Arizona is thriving and is anticipated to stay strong through the mission expansion at Luke AFB. The baseis, and will continue to be, the backbone of this defense economy. The baseimpacts local, regional, and state economies, as well as the local workforce.By 2026, 90 percent of all Luke AFB job impacts areprojected to occur in the communities of Glendale,Surprise, Goodyear, and Avondale.Nearby opportunities for military families, both in termsof jobs and training, will continue to be abundant in certain sectors. Other sectors are currently needed and willneed coordination and partnerships in order for the regionto stay competitive.Workforce and Economic Development Implementation Plan GoalsThe Workforce and Economic Development Implementation Plan presents aseries of strategies to address the goals of capitalizing on the opportunitiesassociated with the mission expansion for Luke Air Force Base personnel,their household members and the surrounding communities. StrategiesW1, ED1 and ED2 and their associated sub-strategies are in alignmentwith Arizona’s Be Connected program and Arizona Roadmap to VeteranEmployment initiative, and they address the following goals:1. Provide Luke AFB personnel who are separating from the service, military spouses, and community members the opportunity to obtain desired skills and quality employment.2. Increase direct spending on military and DoD civilian personnel andprivate-sector defense procurement contracts (both awarded and performed) and increase the value of transfer payments throughout theStudy Area.3. Provide guidance and oversight of the implementation process througha centralized body that provides continuity in knowledge and decision-making regarding implementation.ivLuke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanExecutive Summary
HOUSINGSummary of Key FindingsThe Study Area is projected to have an ample housing inventory at pricepoints that should be attainable to incoming military personnel of all ranks,including those accompanied by a partner and/or family members. Theprojected ample housing supply applies to a variety of housing types. Itis not restricted to price, size, or ownership versus rentalhousing options. Vacant residential units contribute the bulkof housing supply, annually contributing an average 83percent of the overall housing supply in the Study Area.This abundant housing supply is forecasted to remainconstant throughout the buildup. This large inventoryshould contribute to housing costs remaining relativelyaffordable.Relative to affordability, housing that is affordable for ranks E-5 and aboveis projected to be available within the Study Area during the mission expansion. On average, 3,135 housing units are projected to be available withinthe Study Area and considered affordable to and attainable by personnelallowed to live off-base (Rank E-5 and above).Housing Implementation Plan GoalsAlthough there is a large supply of housing in the Study Area, measures arestill needed to ensure that Luke AFB personnel and their dependents areaware of and are able to capitalize on the variety of housing options thatare affordable and that meet their needs. The proposed strategies in theHousing Implementation Plan work toward that goal while remaining actionable, attainable, and reasonable. Strategies H1-H4 and their associatedsub-strategies address the following goals:1. Ensure that all future Luke AFB personnel have access to adequate housing options.2. Ensure that all future Luke AFB personnel have access to informationregarding housing options in the area surrounding the base.3. Ensure that future Luke AFB personnel have adequate housing optionsto live on base if they desire.4. Provide guidance and oversight of the implementation process througha centralized body that provides continuity in knowledge and decisionmaking regarding implementation.Luke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanExecutive Summaryv
TRANSPORTATIONSummary of Key FindingsThe West Valley will experience significant population growth over the nextseveral years, causing the roadways to experience additional congestion.Impacts of additional Luke AFB employees on the larger transportation system will be minor compared to those caused by regional growth.Thus, the increase in personnel at Luke AFB will notcause regional roadways to deteriorate from acceptable to unacceptable levels of service, except at oneintersection adjacent to the base. Near the base, someareas are congested during peak hours. The congestedintersections will be impacted further by additional personnel entering and leaving the base, but the strategiesproposed in the Transportation Implementation Plan canmitigate this congestion.Transportation Implementation Plan GoalsThe proposed transportation implementation plan below presents a seriesof strategies to manage the anticipated growth in traffic around Luke AirForce Base. The recommendations below address the future transportationneeds and provide actionable strategies to improve the existing transportation network at Luke AFB and its surrounding communities. The focus ofthe proposed strategies is to ensure that the increased congestion resultingfrom the population growth in the surrounding communities does not negatively impact the base and its mission. Strategies T1-T7 and their associatedsub-strategies address the following goals:1. Improve overall level of service for intersections at base entrances; reduce queue length (number of vehicles waiting) at the base exit turningmovements.2. Within Luke AFB’s current resources and authority, improve transportation conditions on the base.3. Improve key roadways throughout the Study Area that serve the LukeAFB population.4. Improve the amount and convenience of service in a manner consistentwith estimated demand and financial resources.5. Expand options for Luke AFB employees and dependents who prefernot to rely on daily commuting by single-occupant vehicles.viLuke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanExecutive Summary
6. Collaborate with the City of Glendale and other surrounding cities toimprove access to Luke AFB for all bicyclists and pedestrians.7. Provide guidance and oversight of the implementation process througha centralized body that provides continuity in knowledge and decisionmaking regarding implementation.SUMMARYThe analysis of the four key sectors indicates the WestValley is well-positioned to absorb the growth generated by the mission expansion and by more peoplemoving to the surrounding communities. Local jurisdictions and the base have support from numerousorganizations and associated resources, includingeconomic development organizations, real estategroups, education groups, and others that are actively engaged with eachother and the base. Within the context of the TGMP, these existing relationships can be leveraged to provide a context in which Luke AFB personneland local residents can thrive, and in which the military mission expansionand the surrounding communities’ growth dovetail into a mutually-beneficial relationship.Luke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanExecutive Summaryvii
AcknowledgmentsA number of talented stakeholders contributed their valuable time and expertise to thisreport. We thank Matrix Design Group for the extensive data gathering and analyses thatformed the foundation of this report. We thank the Office of Economic Adjustment at theDepartment of Defense for sponsoring this project and for their support and guidancethroughout. Our Advisory Group members brought unique knowledge and skills to thisproject and shared critical feedback throughout the endeavor. We thank our focus groupparticipants for helpful feedback on the findings from the targeted sector analyses. Insightsand recommendations generated at the tactical team meetings were invaluable in shapingthe final strategies for each sector. We thank the participants in the meeting to operationalize the implementation plans for key input on embedding the strategies in the communityand guidance on potential staffing needs. West Valley Mayors and Managers, Luke Air ForceBase Community Partnerships, and many others on the Luke Air Force Base West ValleyCouncil, gave generously of their time and insights. They are too numerous to thank individually, but this work could not have been done without their assistance and expertise.For hosting various meetings and access to their facilities, we thank the City of Surprise, Cityof Peoria, City of Glendale, Credit Union West, Dysart Unified School District, Sun Health,West Point High School, Tolleson Unified School District, and WESTMARC.That we received help and insights from those acknowledged above should not be taken toimply that they concur with the views expressed in this report. MAG alone is responsible forthe content, including any errors or oversights.Luke Air Force Base Targeted Growth Management Plan Advisory GroupThomas AdkinsValerie BèrubèDanny De HoogRoxane DietrichGreg DonovanJenna GoadShelley HornbackScott IshamSpencer A. IsomRyan LeeBobbi MagdalenoClark PrincellKevin ShipmanKristen StephensonBrent StoddardChristopher ToaleTauny WooCol. Wanda WrightviiiCity of PeoriaArmy Corps of Engineers, formerly with Luke Air Force BaseMaricopa County Department of Government RelationsLuke Air Force BaseWestern Maricopa Education CenterCity of GlendaleLitchfield Elementary School DistrictMaricopa County, Office of the Board of Supervisors for Dist. 4Western Maricopa Education CenterCity of GlendaleArizona State UniversityCity of PhoenixDysart Unified School DistrictGreater Phoenix Economic CouncilCity of GlendaleLuke Air Force BaseLuke Air Force BaseArizona Department of Veterans’ ServicesLuke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanAcknowledgments
Luke Air Force Base Targeted Growth Management Plan StakeholdersPurab AdabalaJake AdamsDebbie AlbertLuke AlbertIrene ArtigasJeanette BatchelorRob BohrEd BoikMelanie BurmJeremy CallesGinna CaricoStephen ChangDonna DavisNisha DorseyKevin DumcumJason EarpGabe EliasBryan EvansJoseph FigueroaKeith ForteChristine GannonRobert GarciaLori GermanDawn GerundoJaime GonzalezJim GrieshaberNora GutierrezRachel HannahBrandi HaskinsLauren HermanWilliam HigginsSintra HoffmanMatthew HolmMike HooverTom HuffmanRandy HugginsJeanine JerkovicCarol KetchersideLt. Col. Neal KleinschmidtJohn KodlickRob KuhfussDenise LaceyShawn LarcherChris LemkaKevin LinkCity of GlendaleSouthwest Human DevelopmentCity of GlendaleCity of GoodyearValley of the Sun United WayLuke Air Force BaseCity of GoodyearCity of BuckeyeArizona State UniversityTolleson Union High School DistrictCity of Goodyear, formerly with City of PeoriaCity of SurpriseExpect More ArizonaMilitary & Veteran SuccessARIZONA@WORK Maricopa CountyCity of TollesonCity of TollesonLuke Air Force BaseGreater Phoenix Economic CouncilOffice of Senator Martha McSallyBrightworks ConsultingArizona Office of Economic OpportunityCity of GlendaleValley of the Sun United WayCity of PeoriaDysart Unified School DistrictTolleson Union High School DistrictState Board for Charter SchoolsWest Point High SchoolLuke Family HomesADES Apprenticeship OfficeWESTMARCMaricopa County Department of Planning and DevelopmentCity of SurpriseAgua Fria Union High School DistrictCity of GlendaleCity of SurpriseValley MetroLuke Air Force BaseWeSERVCity of SurpriseMaricopa County Department of TransportationOffice of Economic AdjustmentCity of PeoriaCity of GlendaleLuke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanAcknowledgmentsix
Luke Air Force Base Targeted Growth Management Plan Stakeholders (cont.)Louis Littleton IIIEdward LoganMartin LuceroLt. Col. Kevin L. MarzetteJessica MayJacqueline McGillJackson MollMike NeuPatti O’BrienJay OtlewskiMichael PangelinanDebbie PearsonBarbara PlanteRandy ProchLiz RecchiaThomas RitzKaren RochJessica RozaNoel SchausRick SolanderWard StanfordTrevor StokesJodi TasZane ThomasAaron WhitePhilip WieserJohn WillettKolu WilsonThomas WinkelAaron XaevierSteve YamamoriSara ZappiaRebecca ZookxU.S. Department of Defense Office of Economic AdjustmentAir Force Association; Military Affairs Committee, Peoria &Glendale Chambers of CommerceCity of SurpriseLuke Air Force BaseMaricopa County Department of TransportationLuke Air Force BaseHome Builders Association of Central ArizonaBuckeye Union High School DistrictMaricopa Corporate CollegeWeSERVLuke Air Force BaseCity of PeoriaLuke Air Force Base (retired)City of PeoriaWeSERVCity of GlendaleCredit Union WestOffice of Congresswoman Debbie Lesko (AZ-08)City of TollesonU.S. Department of Defense Office of Economic AdjustmentCity of AvondaleThe Partnership for Workforce InnovationCity of SurpriseLuke Air Force BaseCity of AvondaleLuke Air Force BaseCity of BuckeyeArizona Office of Economic OpportunityArizona Coalition for Military FamiliesValley MetroThe Reveille FoundationARIZONA@WORK Maricopa CountyCity of GoodyearLuke AFB Targeted Growth Management PlanAcknowledgments
IntroductionIntroductionSource: U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman James Hensley, 2017The Luke Air Force Base Targeted Growth Management Plan (TGMP) is acommunity-led, collaborative study and planning effort between LukeAir Force Base (Luke AFB), its surrounding jurisdictions and the MaricopaAssociation of Governments (MAG). The TGMP’s goals are to support thebase and leverage the opportunities presented by the growth in personnelat Luke AFB due to an expansion in its mission as a training ground for AirForce pilots.In 2012, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced that Luke AFB wouldbe the training home of 144 new F-35A Lightning II fighter jets. The F-35Aprogram expansion will bring 2,324 new base personnel along with 4,717partners and/or dependents, for a total base population increase relatedto the buildup of 7,041. As a consequence of the buildup, the base-relatedpopulation living in nearby communities is expected to grow from nearly16,700 to 23,700 by 2026, when the build-up is expected to be completed.This mission expansion is projected to fuel the economy, with the local defense economy projected to grow 25 percent by 2026.In 2018, local jurisdictions and Luke AFB approached MAG to submit a grantproposal to the Department of Defe
GCU Grand Canyon University. H . HTF Housing Task Force HTW Housing Task Workgroup HURF Highway User Revenue Fund. I . IT Information Technology. K -12K Kindergarten-12th Grade. L . LAFB/Luke AFBe Air Force BaseLuk OSL Level of service LPN Licensed Practical Nurse. M . G MA Maricopa Association of Governments MCCCD Maricopa County Community .
