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CHAPTERONEA closer look at ourworld of 7 billionThe milestone of 7 billion is marked by achievements, setbacks and paradoxes.While women are on average having fewer children than they were in the 1960s,our numbers continue to rise. Globally, people are younger—and older—than ever before. In some of the poorest countries, high fertility rates hamperdevelopment and perpetuate poverty, while in some of the richest countries, lowfertility rates and too few people entering the job market are raising concernstPedestrians inMexico City. UNFPA/RicardoRamirez Arriolaabout prospects for sustained economicgrowth and about the viability of socialsecurity systems. While labour shortagesthreaten to stymie the economies of someindustrialized countries, unemployedwould-be migrants in developing countriesare finding more and more national borders closed to them and the expertise theymay have to offer. And while progress isbeing made in reducing extreme poverty,gaps between rich and poor are wideningalmost everywhere.The State of World Population 2011explores some of these paradoxes from theperspective of individuals and describesthe obstacles they confront—and overcome—in trying to build better lives forthemselves, their families, communitiesand nations.Through personal stories, this reportsheds light on the real-life challenges we facein our world of 7 billion. It is mainly a reportfrom the field, from nine countries where theordinary people who live there, the nationalexperts who study demographic trends andthe policymakers who must make decisionsbased on local conditions talk directly abouttheir lives and work: China, Egypt, Ethiopia,Finland, India, Mexico, Mozambique,Nigeria and the former Yugoslav Republicof Macedonia.Together, the people profiled fromthese countries form a collage of the diversehuman experiences, aspirations and priorities that illustrate the diversity in our worldpopulation and the trends behind it.In conversations with people living andworking in these countries, it does not takelong to discover that no population issue isnow seen as unconnected to others. The livesof ageing citizens, for example, are universallybound up with trends among youth. In manydeveloped and developing countries, youngerjob-seekers are migrating from rural areas tocities or to other countries where employment prospects are better, often leaving olderT HE STAT E OF WORL D POPU L AT ION 20 1 11

family members behind, sometimes withoutthe support they need to carry out their dailylives. In some of the richer countries, smallernumbers of young people mean uncertaintyabout who will care for the old in future yearsand pay for the benefits seniors enjoy.Each of the countries featured in thereport is seeing in their specific population trends, such as urbanization, longer lifeexpectancies and rapidly expanding workingage populations, not only big challenges butalso enormous opportunities to seize thesemoments and turn them into good news.804These trends are sometimes obscured indiscussions about population size, yet it isonly when scrutinizing them that many ofthe immediate challenges and opportunitiesbecome apparent.China’s Shaanxi province, for example, islooking for ways to shelter and support growing numbers of older people. In a mega-citysuch as Lagos, Nigeria, planners are trying toredevelop neighbourhoods and create morecohesive, manageable and livable communities.In Mexico City, people-friendly parks, roadsidegreen spaces and more public transportationYears when world population reached increments of 1 billion10 Billion9 Billion8 Billion7 BillionThe rapid growth of the world population is a recent phenomenon. About 2,000 yearsago, the population of the world was about 300 million. It took more than 1,600 years forthe world population to double to 600 million. The rapid growth of the world populationstarted in 1950, with reductions in mortality in the less developed regions, resulting in anestimated population of 6.1 billion in the year 2000, nearly two-and-a-half times the population in 1950. With the declines in fertility in most of the world, the global growth rate ofpopulation has been decreasing since its peak of 2.0 per cent in 1965-1970.6 BillionSource: Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.5 Billion4 Billion3 Billion2 Billion3211959192718041 Billion123YEARS TO ADD 1 BILLION PEOPLE180021850CHAP T ER 1 : a closer look at our world of 7 billion321900151950

are priorities in the quest to make urban lifehealthier and more sustainable.Nations like the former YugoslavRepublic of Macedonia and Finland, wherefertility is lower and childbearing later thanin most other parts of the world, are looking for ways to support women who havemore children. Nations like Ethiopia andIndia have launched campaigns to end childmarriages and prevent life-threateningadolescent pregnancies.Cities are growing almost everywhere.With good planning and thoughtful ents can usher in urban growththat boosts economies and creates jobs whileusing energy more efficiently and makingsocial services available to more people.People under 25 make up 43 per cent ofthe world’s population. When young peoplecan claim their rights to health, education anddecent working conditions, they become apowerful force for economic developmentand positive change. Throughout thedeveloping world, social scientists andpolicymakers want to make the most oflarge youthful populations, for the sake ofhopeful young people themselves as wellas in the interests of economic growth anddevelopment. Yet this opportunity of a“demographic dividend” is a fleeting momentthat must be claimed quickly or lost.In the poorest countries, extreme poverty, food insecurity, inequality, high deathrates and high birth rates are linked in avicious cycle. Reducing poverty by investing in health and education, especially forwomen and girls, can break this cycle. As living conditions improve, parents can feel moreconfident that most of their children willsurvive. Many then choose to have smallerfamilies. This allows for greater investmentin each child’s health care and education,improved productivity and better long-termprospects—for the family and for the country.Celebrating achievements,planning for the futureThere is much to celebrate in world population trends over the last 60 years, especiallythe average life expectancy, which leapt fromabout 48 years in the early 1950s to about68 in the first decade of the new century.Infant mortality plunged from about 133T H E STAT E OF WORL D POPU L AT ION 20 1 13

deaths in 1,000 births in the 1950s to 46per 1,000 in the period from 2005 to 2010.Immunization campaigns reduced the prevalence of childhood diseases worldwide.In addition, fertility, the number of children a woman is expected to have in herreproductive years, dropped by more thanhalf, from about 6.0 to 2.5, partly because ofcountries’ economic growth and developmentbut also because of a complex mix of socialand cultural forces and greater access bywomen to education, income-earning opportunities and sexual and reproductive healthservices, including modern methodsof contraception.In some regions, the total fertility ratedeclined drastically between 1950 and today.In Central America, for example, the totalChina and India: the billionairesChina and India recently released the findings of their latest censuses,giving the world a glimpse of how these two population behemoths arerealigning in numbers and rates of growth. Below are the two countriesin numbers, using official figures or United Nations projections.According to projections by the Population Division of the UnitedNations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, in 2025, India, with1.46 billion people, will have overtaken China, with 1.39 billion, as theworld’s most populous nation. China’s population will then, based on amedium variant, decline to about 1.3 billion by 2050. India will continue togrow to about 1.7 billion by 2060 before beginning to decline.ChinaIndiaTotal population, 20111.35 billion1.24 billionIncrease 2001–201169.7 million170.1 millionFertility rate1.62.5Year population likely to stabilize20252060Source: Population Division of the United Nations Department ofEconomic and Social Affairs.4CHAP T ER 1 : a closer look at our world of 7 billionfertility rate was about 6.7 children, while 61years later it dropped to 2.6, a half percentage point above the population “replacementlevel” of 2.1 children, one of them a girl. InEast Asia the total fertility rate in 1950 wasabout 6 children per woman and today is1.6, well below replacement level. In someparts of Africa, however, there has been onlya modest drop in total fertility, which todayremains at more than 5 children per woman.But despite global fertility declines, about80 million people are added to the worldeach year, a number roughly equivalent tothe population of Germany or Ethiopia.Considerable population growth continuestoday because of the high numbers of birthsin the 1950s and 1960s, which have resultedin larger base populations with millions ofyoung people reaching their reproductiveyears over succeeding generations.The Population Division of the UnitedNations Department of Economic and SocialAffairs, in its World Population Prospects: The2010 Revision (published in May 2011) foresees a global population of 9.3 billion peopleat 2050, an increase over earlier estimates,and more than 10 billion by the end of thiscentury—and that scenario assumes lowerfertility rates over time. With only a smallvariation in fertility, particularly in the morepopulous countries, the total could be higher:10.6 billion people could be living on Earthby 2050 and more than 15 billion in 2100,the Population Division estimates. “Muchof this increase is expected to come from thehigh-fertility countries, which comprise 39 inAfrica, nine in Asia, six in Oceania and four inLatin America,” the United Nations reports.According to John Cleland of the LondonSchool of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,

an international expert on reproductiveissues in Africa, sub-Saharan Africa is “theone remaining region of the world wherethe population is set to double or treble inthe next 40 years.” The reason for demog raphers’ increasing focus on the region isclear, he said: “The escape from povertyand hunger is made more difficult by rapidpopulation growth.”“Clearly we are living through an extraordinary period in human history, an era ofunprecedented growth in our species,” saysSteven Sinding, who has observed population trends over the years as director of theoffice of population at the United StatesAgency for International Development,professor of population and family healthat Columbia University and director-generalEstimated and projected population by major area,medium variant, 1950-2100 n America and the Caribbean203020402050Europe206020702080Northern America20902100OceaniaAsia will remain the most populousexpected to add another billion in justand Oceania) amount to 1.7 billion in 2011major area in the world during the 21st35 years (by 2044), even as its fertil-and are projected to rise to nearly 2 bil-century but Africa will gain ground asity drops from 4.6 children per woman inlion in 2060 and then decline very slowly,its population more than triples, passing2005-2010 to 3.0 children per woman inremaining still near 2 billion by the turnfrom 1 billion in 2011 to 3.6 billion in 2100.2040-2045.of the century. Among the regions, theIn 2011, 60 per cent of the world pop-Asia's population, which is currentlypopulation of Europe is projected to peakulation lived in Asia and 15 per cent in4.2 billion, is expected to peak around thearound 2025 at 0.74 billion and declineAfrica. Africa’s population has been grow-middle of the century (it is projected tothereafter.ing 2.3 per cent per year, a rate more thanreach 5.2 billion in 2052) and to start adouble that of Asia's population (1 perslow decline thereafter.cent per year). The population of AfricaThe populations of all other majorfirst surpassed a billion in 2009 and isareas combined (the Americas, EuropeSource: Population Division of theUnited Nations Department of Economicand Social Affairs.T HE STAT E OF WORL D POPU L AT ION 20 1 15

tof the International Planned ParenthoodFederation. “The pace of growth poses enormous challenges for many of the poorestcountries, which lack the resources not onlyto keep up with demand for infrastructure,basic health and education services and jobopportunities for the rising number of youngpeople, but also to adapt to climate change.”Stabilizing population growth, especiallyin the poorest countries, requires better andmore universal access to reproductive healthservices particularly family planning forthe countries. These services must be basedon and reinforce human rights and shouldinclude sexuality education for young people,particularly adolescent girls.José Ángel Aguilar Gil, the director ofDemocracia y Sexualidad, A.C., a Mexicobased non-governmental organization thatpromotes sexual health and reproductiverights, says that adolescent and young women“have the right to access integrated sexualityGabriela Rivera,National programmeassociate on sexualand reproductive healthfor young people andvulnerable populations,UNFPA, Mexico. UNFPA/Ricardo RamirezArriola6CHAP T ER 1 : a closer look at our world of 7 billioneducation as part of a broader human right:the right to have an education,” he says.Gabriela Rivera, a programme associate in UNFPA’s office in Mexico City saysthere is “wide evidence” about the benefits ofrights-based sexuality education. Successfulprogrammes, she says, provide timely, sufficient and scientific information, tailoredto the needs of each age group. “Evaluationstudies have shown that sex education hasan impact in delaying the age at the firstsexual intercourse, in increasing the use ofcontraception methods and condoms, andin decreasing the levels of violence againstyoung girls,” she says. “The above implies thereduction of early and unwanted pregnancies,and the decrease of HIV/AIDS.”7 billion: it’s about peopleWhile much of the world will undoubtedlybe focusing on numbers on 31 October, theday demographers estimate that the world’spopulation reaches 7 billion, this reportfocuses on individuals and the analysts whostudy the trends that affect people’s everydaylives. It looks at the decisions that individualsmake—or would like to make, if theyhad the opportunity.At the International Conference onPopulation and Development in 1994,nations agreed that progress in addressingpopulation issues could be better achievedthrough empowering women and girls toparticipate in their societies and economieson equal footing with men and boys and tomake fundamental decisions about their lives,including decisions related to the timing andspacing of pregnancies and births. By thetime delegations to Cairo issued their historicProgramme of Action, abundant research and

tAmsalu Buke (left)and assistant. UNFPA/AntonioFiorenteexperience from many countries had alreadydocumented that when women have equalrights and opportunities in their societies andwhen girls are educated and healthy, fertility rates fall. The Programme of Action alsomade it clear that empowerment of womenis not simply an end in itself, but also a steptowards eradicating poverty.The State of World Population 2011 beginswith a sampling of young people and a lookat what their growing populations mean indifferent settings. The chapters that followthen explore ageing populations, migration,the interrelationship among fertility patterns,reproductive health services, gender and therights of women and girls, the managementof vast urban areas and environmental strains.In this report thoughtful, visionary individuals around the world talk about thechallenges and opportunities they have inshaping their societies and the global population for this century and beyond. Many ofthem are young, and conscious of the demographic fact that they will be designing the21st century world.PopUlation and PovertyExcerpts from the International Conference onPopulation and Development’s Programme of Action Persistent widespread poverty as well as serious social andgender inequities have significant influences on, and are in turninfluenced by, demographic parameters such as populationgrowth, structure and distribution . Efforts to slow down population growth, to reduce poverty, to achieve economic progress, toimprove environmental protection, and to reduce unsustainableconsumption and production patterns are mutually reinforcing .Eradication of poverty will contribute to slowing populationgrowth and to achieving early population stabilization.T HE STAT E OF WORL D POPU L AT ION 20 1 17

8CHAP T ER 2 : Youth : A New Global Power Reshaping the World

CHAPTERTWOYouth: a new global powerreshaping the worldEthel Phiri, a 22-year-old peer educator at the Family Planning Associationof Mozambique, AMODEFA, one of the non-governmental organizations thatimplement the country’s Geração Biz youth-outreach programme, runs bancadasfemininas, discussion groups at schools, markets or elsewhere in communitiesaround Maputo to support young people with issues of sexual and reproductivehealth and HIV prevention and teach them about women’s rights. Her groupstRicardo Morenoand Sara Gonzalezin Mexico City. Thecouple, who areengaged, have decidedjointly that they willwait until she hasfinished her educationand has a job beforethey marry andhave children. UNFPA/RicardoRamirez Arriola“talk a lot about domination of women bymen,” she says. “Women don’t have a voice inthe home. They want to change the culture,and they want the Government to pay moreattention to their issues.” Phiri says.Young people in China find ways to learnabout economic opportunities that lie ahead,and try to position themselves to qualify forthem. Young Chinese migrant workers inXian, in Shaanxi province, described theirjobs in market stalls and factories as a way tosave money to return home and open businesses of their own. Han Qian, who is 21,first studied medicine, then drifted into pharmacy and got a job testing drugs. Bored, shebecame fascinated by a tea market nearby andis saving her earnings to accumulate enoughcapital to start a tea shop.In the isolated Ethiopian village of Tare,Amsalu Buke, with a box of medical supplieson a strap slung over her shoulder, is a quietrevolutionary to the women who live in thisregion without doctors or roads. Walkingacross parched fields from hamlet to hamlet,Amsalu, just 20 years old, brings family planning to women so eager for her help that theywaylay her on her rounds, pleading discreetlyfor contraceptives.In Skopje, the capital of the formerYugoslav Republic of Macedonia, a group ofyoung women talked about the entrepreneurialopportunities they have seized in a transitionaleconomy to position themselves for successin new businesses and services. Several ofthem had lived abroad and gained both skillsand self-confidence, as many young migrantsdo, whether they travel to work beyond borders or to cities within their own countries.One of the new entrepreneurs in Skopje,Marina Anchevska, returned from work in theNetherlands to establish herself as a personaland business coach, with yoga classes a specialty.She wants to change the atmosphere of officesand boardrooms as the once-socialist countryappeals for foreign investment a

New York, NY 10158 USA Tel. 1-212 297-5000 www.unfpa.org UNFPA 2011 USD 24.00 ISBN 978--89714-990-7 sales no. E.11.III.H.1 Printed on r ecycled paper . People and possibilities in a world of 7 billion Seven Opportunities for a World of 7 Billion 1 Reducing poverty and inequality can slow population growth. Unleashing the power of women and girls can accelerate progress on all fronts .