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LONG-TERM MARKET ABSORPTION PROJECTIONSBY DEVELOPMENT TYPE: STUDY AREAABSORPTION PROJECTION BY SCENARIOCONSERVATIVEMODERATEAGGRESSIVE40,000 SF50,000 SF60,000 SF636 Units/Homes834 Units/Homes1,032 Units/Homes80,000 SF150,000 SF215,000 SF35,000 - 66,500 SF102,500 SF170,000 SFDEVELOPMENT TYPERetailHousingFlex/Light IndustrialOfficeRETAILFLEX/LIGHT INDUSTRIAL 40,000 to 60,000 Square Feet 80,000 to 215,000 Square Feet The projected retail square footage representsabsorption of neighborhood-scale retailgenerated by spending from household growth The retail demand is expected to be mostlyabsorbed in the vacant space in the study area Any new retail development related to aregional retailer and/or interchange-orientedretailer would be in addition to the projection.Again, most of the regional retailers are alreadyin the market, but it might be possible to attracta large user back to Consumer Square followingODOT’s interchange/intersection improvementsHOUSING 636 to 1,032 Units The study area is projected to grow by 636households over the next ten years The Consumer Square East site offers anopportunity for new mixed-use developmentnear the interchange. Incorporation ofresidential uses into this mixed-use approachwould expand upon the current housingalternatives and potentially increase newhousing development beyond 1,000 units/homes in ten years The absorption projections assume that forlease and owner-occupied opportunities remainavailable for flex/industrial space users alongTussing Road. The addition of a traffic signal on TussingRoad is important to distribution operations. Any occupancy of vacant space at theKobacker building would be in addition to theprojection totals.OFFICE 35,000 to 170,000 Square Feet Office development is often one of the laterphases in a redevelopment scenario becauseit is more dependent on an attractive amenityrich environment. The absorption projections assumeoccupancy of office space on Lake Club Drivefollowing the redevelopment and/or demolitionof the former Chi Chis and Bob Evans site.

2.0 INTRODUCTIONDEVELOPMENT BACKGROUND10Multiple factors influenced the decline ofretail: Traffic/difficulty of access Limited visibility of second tier sites New retail development closer tohousehold growth clustersThe mass exodus of retailers from the BriceRoad corridor resulted in an overwhelmingnumber of vacancies followed by neglectand disinvestment of many properties.However, recently there have been a numberof key redevelopment efforts. Of particularnote is Steve Lindsay’s acquisition andrepurposing of the former vacant Meijer andScarborough Mall (aka Brice Outlet Mall).This further investment could serve as thecatalyst for redevelopment and improvementof the area.Brice-Tussing Retail Development by DecadeSquare FeetBRICE TUSSING MARKET STUDYThe Brice-Tussing area is typical of the retail“boom and bust” cycle that occurs in manysuburban areas nationwide. The BriceTussing study area saw 1.8 million squarefeet of development in the 1980s and 1990sin response to rapid population growth.The area was among the region’s largestretail centers, however it was developedpiecemeal without much consideration ofsite characteristics and was immediatelyvulnerable to competition. Area split into multiple trade areas Neglect of Brice Road properties northof I-70 Obsolescence of store architecture andinterior 400,000300,000200,000100,00001970s1980s1990s2000s

3.0 PREVIOUS AREA STUDIESThe Brice Tussing area has been consideredin several planning studies over the pastseveral decades. In addition, studies for thesurrounding areas consider larger regionalissues impacting the Brice Tussing area.BRICE/TUSSING AREA PLANThe 1990 Brice/Tussing Area Plan is thelast to specifically focus on this studyarea. Now 25-years old, a number of therecommendations are still valid today. Theplan advocates the value of balancingcommercial use types, including office andindustrial. The reality is that commercialdevelopment here ended up heavily skewedtoward retail, and consideration to remedythat imbalance should be a top prioritynow. The plan also advocates protection ofresidential areas from commercial intrusionand is relevant to today’s planning evaluation.SOUTHEAST AREA PLAN & AMENDMENTThe Southeast Area Plan and Bixby Roadamendment address areas to the south ofthe Brice Tussing Study Area. The plansoutline the land use and design intent forthose areas, which have been partiallyrealized in the ensuing years. The BixbyRoad amendment proposes an interchangeat Bixby Road and US-33 in order to createa major activity center designed to fostereconomic development of the SoutheastArea. A realignment of Brice Road and BixbyRoad is also proposed, directly connectingthe two.HAMILTON ROAD/EASTLAND AREA PLANThe Hamilton Road / Eastland Area Planassesses the area immediately west of thisstudy area. Many similar issues are raisedregarding under-performing retail and theneed for redevelopment strategies.LIVINGSTON EAST AREA PLANThis plan includes the Livingston/Bricearea. Recommendations identify BriceRoad as a potential redevelopment corridorand advocates the preservation of openspace that has become Walnut Hills Park.In addition, called-for improvements to theBrice Road streetscape north of I-70 havesince been accomplished.1990BRICE/TUSSINGAREA PLAN2000SOUTHEAST AREA PLAN2007SOUTHEAST PLAN BIXBY ROAD AMENDMENT2007H A M I LT O N R O A D /EASTLAND AREA PLAN2009LIVINGSTON EASTAREA PLAN

4.0 STUDY/TRADE AREA BACKGROUNDBRICE TUSSING MARKET STUDYThe study area (see map below)encompasses 7.23 square miles andincludes the southwest quadrant of theEast Livingston/Brice Road intersection andextends from I-70 south to Blacklick Creek.Big Walnut Creek is the western borderand the City of Columbus and Pickeringtoncorporate limits bound the study area to theeast.12Pertinent demographic and economic dataresearch, and detailed market surveyswere completed within the study area andrespective trade areas to identify marketconditions for a variety of developmenttypes including retail, lodging, residential,office and flex/industrial properties. Thegeneral boundaries of the trade areas foreach development type are listed on the nextpage.INTERSTATE270Brice Tussing Study AreaStakeholder interviews were also conductedto identify viable redevelopment options andother issues that contribute to or constraininvestment in the study area. A summary ofkey market findings and supporting marketinformation follows.DEMOGRAPHICSIn 2014, there was an estimated populationof 32,158 in 12,455 households in the studyarea. Homeownership rates declined from2000 to 2014 by 9.6 percentage points, morethan doubling the citywide decline of 4.3%.Nonetheless, half (50.2%) of the occupiedhousing in the area remains owner-occupiedcompared to a 45.5% citywide.Since 2000, there has been an annualaverage household growth rate of 2% in thestudy area, with 2,785 additional households

GENERAL TRADE AREA BOUNDARIESDEVELOPMENT TYPENORTHEASTSOUTHWESTBroad StreetTaylor Road /Diley RoadUS Highway 33 &Busey RoadBig Walnut CreekEast Main StreetState Route 256Busey Road(City of Columbus)Noe Bixby Road(City of Columbus)I-70/ChanningwayBlvd/Taylor RoadState Route 256Groves Road/Tussing RoadHamilton Road /State Route 317Flex & IndustrialPropertiesBroad StreetState Route 310(Etna)Williams Road /Columbus StreetHamilton Road /State Route 317Office (East Submarket)Broad StreetFranklin Countycorporate limitsUS Highway 33US Highway 33ResidentialRetailLodging (I-70)(source: ESRI, Incorporated). New housingdevelopment concentrated along RefugeeRoad and Chatterton Roads, accounted formuch of the household growth in the earlyto mid-2000s. Annual household growthfrom 2010 to 2014, however, was minimal,estimated at 0.4%.The area includes many younger familieswith children. The average age of thepopulation is 30.8 years old compared to32.3 citywide. Households in the area arealso comparatively larger with an average of2.57 persons (2.31 citywide).DEMOGRAPHICS(2014 ESTIMATED)The 2014 median household income withinthe study area is 50,219, substantiallyabove the citywide average ( 42,208). On aper capita basis, however, the incomes areslightly below citywide incomes due to thelarge family sizes in the study area.The area has become more racially diversewith half (49.8%) the population AfricanAmerican, 40% White, and another 10%from other races. From 2010 to 2014, theshare of the African-American populationincreased by an estimated 1.7% comparedto 0.3% citywide. By 2019, it is projectedthat the share of African-AmericanSTUDY AREASOUTHEAST RESIDENTIALTRADE AREACITY OF ,45546,559343,6442.572.462.31% Homeowner50.2%53.3%45.5%% Renter49.8%46.7%54.5%30.834.432.3 50,214 50,924 42,208Average Household SizeMedian AgeMedian IncomeSource: Census Bureau, ESRI, Inc, UDG

4.0 STUDY/TRADE AREA BACKGROUND (CONT.)population will increase another 2.7percentage points. During this same period,the share of White population is projected todecline 3.4 percentage points (2% declinecitywide).BRICE TUSSING MARKET STUDYBased on Mid-Ohio Regional PlanningCommission (MORPC) projections, thepopulation within the study area is projectedto increase by more than 1,000 personsover the next ten years. The current year14projection slightly differs from those of ESRI,Incorporated, as they consider the likelihoodof development and attractiveness of anarea for development (refer to 2040 MORPCForecast Methodology). While MORPC’smethodology is atypical of demographersand not entirely a market-based approach,the data is useful for long-term land useprojections. Their projected employment forthe area has also been considered in futureabsorption by development type.POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONYEAR 2015YEAR 2040PROJECTED GROWTH2015 TO 204010-YEAR 2,09213,6801,588635Office Jobs1,9622,294332133Retail Goods Jobs1,7912,164373149Retail Service Jobs1,6711,85918875Industrial Other JobsTOTAL JOBSNote: The data is derived from the MORPC 2040 Land Use Projection data set and has been adjusted accordingly by UrbanDecision Group to reflect the study area projections.

5.0 STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWSDuring September and October 2014,DiSalvo Development Advisors (DDA) andplanning team members conducted inperson and phone interviews with 50 areastakeholders. The purpose of the interviewswas to identify viable redevelopmentoptions and issues that contribute to and/or constrain redevelopment opportunitiesin the Brice-Tussing Planning Area. Thestakeholders included local developers,brokers, property managers, municipal andstate personnel and local businesses.NAMETITLECOMPANYMatt McCollisterVice President, Economic DevelopmentColumbus 2020Jim RussellExecutive VP and COOThe Pizzuti CompaniesPaul G. GhidottiExecutive VPDaimler GroupStephen W. LindsayOwnerLindsay Honda/AccuraJeffrey L. BrownPartnerSmith & Hale, LLCTim KeltonPresidentRuscilli Real Estate ServicesMike SpencerVice PresidentRuscilli Real Estate ServicesLynn SinghCommercial Division agentReMaxTod SpinosiGeneral ManagerMagic Moutain EastDave RuffStore ManagerThe Andersons, Inc.Patty AckersManagerAskPowersportsSteve GermainPresident & CEOGermain Motor CompanyRich NewsomeGeneral ManagerGermain Toyota of ColumbusBrandon BarnettSenior Real Estate ManagerJC PenneyBill BahrSenior HR LeaderJC PenneyShane WoloshanBrokerage Senior Vice President & PrincipalColliers InternationalJohn LefflerBrokerage SeniorAssociate, Retail ServicesColliers InternationalJonathan SchuenBrokerage Associate, Industrial TeamColliers InternationalStephen A. TuckerSenior Vice PresidentThe Robert Weiler CompanyTodd E. SchiffSenior Vice PresidentThe Robert Weiler CompanyElizabeth HouserSenior Leasing RepBrixmor(Galileo Apollo I Sub LLC)Kim FiedlerDirector of Land DevelopmentBenderson Development (RB-3 Associates)Mark BeithControllerRoss Development (CI-Ross LP)Brian RossOwnerRoss Development (Chantry Square)Dave HavenerDirector, Department of DevelopmentCity of Reynoldsburg

BRICE TUSSING MARKET STUDY5.0 STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS (CONT.)NAMETITLECOMPANYBhavin BhavsarGeneral ManagerComfort SuitesNot availableSupervisorStarbucksAndrew ClarkManagerSportsAuthority(Chantry Square tenant)Karen and DiannaStaffHeritage Square Antique MallRichard FowlerBranch ManagerUS Bank (Channingway Center tenant)MattClerkBargain Outlet (Brice-Livingston Center)Heather W.Front DeskLa QuintaRaj A.OwnerRed Roof InnFrank PowersManagerSoccer Express (Scarborough Square tenant)Tonda L. RobersonProperty ManagerChantry VillageChris DeibelVice President and COOScioto Management Group (Chantry Village)Steve ShkolnikLeasing AgentLGR Realty (Brice-Livingston Center)Stephen FletcherResident ManagerCornerstone CrossingLindsay HartmanLeasing ConsultantWilliamsburg SquareLindsay TedderProperty ManagerBrentwood LakesMark RappSergeant, Strategic Response BureauColumbus Division of PoliceStaci BatesProperty ManagerSpinnaker Club EastBradford KitchenBrokerAlterraMatt StavroffOwner/DeveloperStavroff Venture CorpDoug LeedsVice PresidentThe Gilbert GroupKeisha GodfreyOperatorGodfrey AthleticsMichael VanceProperty ManagerJefferson CommonsDirk GrossTransportation EngineerODOTMike SolomonAssociate BrokerGoodman Real Estate Services GroupMatt RobinsonOwnerRobinson Investments (owns Kobacker bldg)Developer’s Open House: Planning team presentation of preliminary findings16

STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS SUMMARYThe following summary cites the generalissues identified during the interviewprocess. Individual stakeholder commentswere kept confidential.The stakeholder interviews overwhelminglyindicated that while strides have been, andcontinue to be made, in the area southwestof Brice Road and I-70, unless infrastructureand environmental issues are addressed,further redevelopment will be hindered.The planning areas north and south ofI-70 are generally considered separateneighborhoods with distinct marketdynamics of their own. Several of the localbusinesses have trade areas that encompassboth areas extending beyond the planningarea, but they noted that the areas are stilldistinctly different from each other. Forthis reason, we grouped the summary ofstakeholder interviews into two geographies;the planning area north of I-70 and theplanning area south of I-70.PLANNING AREA NORTH OF I-70The overriding issue for this area is that itis perceived as a “high crime area.” Thisdissuades many from patronizing areabusinesses including hotels/motels, banks,restaurants and other retailers. This, in turn,has limited reinvestment by owners in thearea. Nightclubs are viewed as the origin ofmuch of the crime activity. The concentrationof nightclubs and multiple rear accesspoints creating places to hide were cited asproblematic.The perception of crime is fostered furtherby vacant commercial structures. Restaurantbuildings that were formerly home to ChiChi’s and Bob Evans on Brice Road havebeen vacant for many years. Commercialbrokers note that these structures havehindered the ability to lease space at nearbyoffice buildings on Lake Club Drive. Moteloperators have expressed interest in reuseof the properties as restaurants to enhancethe marketability of their properties. The BobEvans building reportedly has been leasedrecently to a day care operator. The Chi-Chi’sbuilding, owned by a church organization,was stripped by vandals during the courseof renovations, and is now in such a stateof disrepair that many think the buildingrequires demolition.Despite the perception of the area beingunsafe, there are a number of strongbusinesses, which continue to attractpatrons from outside the area. Accordingto lodging operators, the area continuesto draw overnight stays because BriceRoad is the first interchange on I-70 visitorssee approaching Columbus before I-270.The area is often the beneficiary of visitorspillover from large events in other areasof central Ohio, notably pet, antique andCountry Living Magazine shows.The apartment communities are operatingat high occupancy levels. Area apartmentmanagers note the dominating factor forrenters moving into their rental housingdevelopment are the low rents.The traffic congestion generated from thetemporary Brice Road construction hasreportedly deterred some patron trafficand has been a point of complaint amongbusinesses. However, the sidewalks thataccompany the street improvements are

BRICE TUSSING MARKET STUDY5.0 STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS (CONT.)18viewed as an important amenity by lodgingoperators who want their patrons to feel safewalking to restaurants. Currently, peoplestaying at a motel/hotel in the area haveto navigate through parking lots to get tonearby restaurants. At night, this is viewedas dangerous. The tenants of the BriceLivingston Shopping Center indicated thata stop light at the entrance of the shoppingcenter on Brice would greatly improveingress/egress to and from the center fortheir customers. There are no traffic signalscurrently serving the shopping center and asa result many customers cut through otherexisting businesses’ parking lots for entryinto the center.There is interest among stakeholdersfor recreational uses in the greater area(including the Planning Area South of I-70).Non-profit organizations have consideredthe area for this type of use, but moved onbecause of the lack of affordable recreationalspace and, in one case, a stakeholder citedpotential users’ concern for security.PLANNING AREA SOUTH OF I-70The area was once the premier big-boxcenter in Columbus, but was “doomed atbirth” because of inadequate infrastructureplanning. The consensus is that trafficcongestion led to the demise of the area.A random collection of development thatwas wedged into the corridor withoutconsideration for visibility or access furtherhindered the viability of the corridor. Whenbig-box retailers, such as Target, Meijer, BestBuy and others left the area for developmentsituated along State Route 256, many otherretailers followed suit.Key improvements/positive attributesThe Brice Road corridor is stabilizing andthere are positive signs of progress, ledby local automotive dealerships activein acquisition and redevelopment. SteveLindsay’s acquisition of the former Meijer onBrice Road and subsequent lease to FrontRoom Furnishings has been encouragingto all stakeholders, and viewed by manyas a catalyst for future redevelopment. Mr.Lindsay’s purchase of the former Brice OutletMall for redevelopment as his dealershiphas also been well r

BRICE TUSSING MARKET STUDY. 2. PURPOSE. The Brice-Tussing real estate market study is . intended to serve as a base for development of the upcoming Brice - Tussing Area Plan. The objectives of the study are as follows: A complete commercial real estate . market analysis of the retail, services, office, multifamily residential and light