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NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYTHIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN(NDPIII) 2020/21 – 2024/25January 2020
NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYNATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYTHIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN(NDPIII) 2020/21 – 2024/25VISION“A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasantto a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years”GOAL“To Increase Average Household Incomes and Improvethe Quality of Life of Ugandans”THEME“Sustainable Industrialization for inclusive growth,employment and sustainable wealth creation”January 2020iNDPIII 2020/21 – 2024/25
THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 – 2024/25TABLE OF CONTENTSABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .VIFOREWORD . XIVEXECUTIVE SUMMARY . XVIPART I: BACKGROUND AND DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT . 1CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND . 11.11.21.31.41.5Introduction . 1Achievements, Challenges and Lessons learnt from NDPI and NDPII . 2How NDPIII is different from NDPI and NDPII . 11Approach and formulation process of the NDPIII . 13Structure of the Plan . 13CHAPTER 2: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT . 142.12.22.32.4Introduction . 14Key Development Opportunities. 15Threats . 18Regional and International Development Obligations . 21CHAPTER 3: NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK . 233.13.23.33.43.53.6Macroeconomic Strategy. 23Economic Growth . 25Fiscal Strategy . 27Monetary Sector . 30Financial Sector Development . 32External Sector Developments . 32PART II: STRATEGIC FOCUS, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS ANDFINANCING. 35CHAPTER 4: STRATEGIC DIRECTION . 354.1 Goal . 354.2 Development Objectives . 354.3 Theory of change . 364.4 Key Development Results . 364.5 Development Approach. 374.6 Development Strategies. 394.7 National Development Programs . 464.8 NDPIII Core Projects . 47PART III: DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES . 49CHAPTER 5: AGRO-INDUSTRIALIZATION . 495.1Introduction . 49iiii
NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY5.25.3Situation Analysis . 50Objectives . 56CHAPTER 6: MINERAL DEVELOPMENT . 666.16.26.3Introduction . 66Situation Analysis . 66Objectives . 69CHAPTER 7: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF PETROLEUM RESOURCES . 767.17.27.3Introduction . 76Situation analysis. 77Objectives . 78CHAPTER 8: TOURISM DEVELOPMENT . 838.18.28.3Introduction . 83Situation Analysis . 84Objectives . 89CHAPTER 9: CLIMATE CHANGE, NATURAL RESOURCES, ENVIRONMENT, ANDWATER MANAGEMENT . 949.19.29.3Introduction . 94Situation Analysis . 95Objectives . 98CHAPTER 10: PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT . 10610.1 Introduction . 10610.2 Situation Analysis . 10610.3 Objectives . 109CHAPTER 11: MANUFACTURING . 11211.1 Introduction . 11211.2 Situational analysis. 11311.3 Objectives . 116CHAPTER 12: INTEGRATED TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES. 11912.112.212.3Introduction . 119Situation Analysis . 120Objectives . 129CHAPTER 13: ENERGY DEVELOPMENT . 13413.1 Introduction . 13413.2Situation Analysis . 13513.3 Objectives . 138CHAPTER 14: DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION . 142iiiiiiNDPIII 2020/21 – 2024/25
THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 – 2024/2514.1Introduction . 14214.2 Situation Analysis . 14214.3 Objectives . 145CHAPTER 15: SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION AND HOUSING . 14915.1Introduction . 14915.2 Situation Analysis . 15015.3 Objectives . 151CHAPTER 16: HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT . 15516.1 Introduction . 15516.2 Situation Analysis . 15616.3 Objectives . 159CHAPTER 17: INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSFER . 16417.1 Introduction . 16417.2Situation Analysis . 16517.3 Objectives . 16617.3.1 Interventions . 16617.3.2 Implementation Reforms . 168CHAPTER 18: COMMUNITY MOBILIZATION AND MINDSET CHANGE . 17018.1 Introduction . 17018.2 Situation Analysis . 17118.3 Objectives . 173CHAPTER 19: GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY PROGRAMME . 17519.1 Introduction . 17519.2 Situation Analysis . 17619.3 Objectives . 179CHAPTER 20: PUBLIC SECTOR TRANSFORMATION . 18220.1Introduction . 18220.2 Situation Analysis . 18320.3 Objectives . 186CHAPTER 21: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT . 18921.1 Introduction . 18921.2 Situation Analysis . 19021.3 Objectives . 191CHAPTER 22: DEVELOPMENT PLAN IMPLEMENTATION . 19422.1 Introduction . 19422.2 Situation analysis. 19422.3Objectives . 19822.3.1 Interventions . 198iviv
NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY22.3.2 Implementation Reforms . 200PART IV: COSTING AND FINANCING, RISK MANAGEMENT, AND MONITORINGAND EVALUATION . 201CHAPTER 23: COSTING AND FINANCING OF NDPIII PROGRAMS . 20123.123.223.323.4The Overall Cost of the Plan . 201Public Financing Sources . 201Public Debt Acquisition . 204Private Financing Sources . 204CHAPTER 24: RISK MANAGEMENT . 20724.1 Introduction . 20724.2 General Interventions for Risk Management . 214CHAPTER 25: MONITORING AND EVALUATION . 21525.1 Introduction . 21525.2 The NDPIII M&E Reforms . 21525.3 Roles and Responsibilities of Key Actors . 21725.4 Performance Reporting and Dissemination of Results . 21825.5 M&E Processes . 22025.6 Capacity Building. 22125.7 NDPIII Results Framework . 221ANNEXES . 223Annex 1: Status of implementation of NDPII Core Projects – FY2018/19 . 223Annex 2: Prioritized Minerals for NDP III and their uses . 226Annex 3: Mapping of the global, continental and regional development frameworks. . 230vvNDPIII 2020/21 – 2024/25
THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 – 2024/25ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMSACD Anti-Corruption DivisionAfCFTA African Continental Free Trade AreaAfDB African Development BankAFROSALAfrican Organization of Supreme Audit InstitutionsAGI Agro-IndustrializationANC Antenatal CareASSIP Accountability Sector Strategic Investment PlanBCCU Bugisu Coffee Cooperative UnionBTVET Business, Technical and Vocational TrainingBOU Bank of UgandaCCD Climate Change DepartmentCDOs Community Development OfficersCMA Capital Markets AuthorityCME Community Mobilization and EmpowermentCNDPF Comprehensive National Development Planning FrameworkCOMESA Common Market for East and Southern AfricaCNOOC China National Oil CorporationCSOs Civil Society OrganisationsCTC Cut, Tear and CurlDDA Dairy Development AuthorityDDEG Discretionary Development Equalisation GrantDFS Digital Financial ServicesDIT Department of Industrial TrainingDLG District Local GovernmentDPP Directorate of Public ProsecutionDPs Development Parntersvivi
NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYDRMS Domestic Revenue Mobilisation StrategyEAC East African CommunityEBA European Union Everything But ArmsECCE Early Childhood Care and EducationECD Early Childhood DevelopmentESIAs Environmental, Social and Impact AssessmentsEPRC Economic Policy Research CentreERA Electricity Regulatory AuthorityFBOs Faith Based OrganizationsFDC Forum for Democratic ChangeFDI Foreign Direct InvestmentFID Final Investment DecisionFGM Female Genital MutilationFSDS Financial Sector Development ServicesGAPR Government Annual Performance ReportGDPGross Domestic ProductGER Gross Enrollment RatioGKMA Greater Kampala Metropolitan AreaHCs Health CentersHCI Human Capital IndexHDI Human Development IndexHRBA Human Rights Based ApproachHTTI Hotel and Tourism Training InstituteIBP Integrated Bank of ProjectsICBT Informal Cross Border TradeICT Information and Communication TechnologyIFMIS Integrated Finance Management Information SystemviiviiNDPIII 2020/21 – 2024/25
THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 – 2024/25IG Inspectorate of GovernmentITNSInsecticides Treated NetsIPP Integrated Personal and Payroll SystemIRA Insurance Regulatory AuthorityISO International Organization for StandardizationKCCA Kampala Capital City AuthorityKIBP Kampala Industrial and Business ParkKIIDP Kampala Capital Authority Infrastructure Development ProjectLED Local Economic DevelopmentLGs Local GovernmentsMAAIF Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and FisheriesMATIP Market and Agricultural Trade Improvement ProjectMDAs Ministries Departments and AgenciesMEMD Ministry of Energy and Mineral DevelopmentMKCC & MAMoTIC Ministry of Trade Industry and CooperativesMICE Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and EventsMAAIF Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and FisheriesMoD Ministry of DefenseMoEACA Ministry of East African Community AffairsMoES Ministry of Education and SportsMoFA Ministry of Foreign AffairsMoFPED Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic DevelopmentMOH Ministry of HealthMoGLSD Ministry of Gender Labour and Social DevelopmentMoIA Ministry of Internal Affairsviiiviii
NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYMoICT & NG Ministry of Information and Communication Technology and NationalGuidanceMoJCA Minsitry of Justice and Constitutional AffairsMoLG Ministry of Local GovernmentMoLHUD Ministry of Lands Housing and Urban DevelopmentMoPS Ministry of Public ServicesMoSTI Ministry of Science Technology and InnovationMoTWA Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife and AntiquitiesMoWE Ministry of Water and EnvironmentMoWT Ministry of Works and TransportMPs Members of ParliamentMSMEs Micro Small and Medium EnterprisesMTR Mid-Term ReviewNAADS National Agricultural Advisory ServicesNAGRC& DB National Animal Genetic Resource center and Data BankNARO National Agricultural Research OrganizationNDCs Nationally Determined ContributionsNER Net Enrollment RatioNFA National Forestry AuthorityNFLC National Farmer Leadership CentreNRI Networked Readiness IndexNCHE National Council of Higher EducationNPA National Planning AuthorityNARO National Agricultural Research OrganizationNCDC National Curriculum Development CentreNCDs Non Communicable DiseasesNDPNational Development PlanixixNDPIII 2020/21 – 2024/25
THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 – 2024/25NEMA National Environmental Management AuthorityNFA National Forestry AuthorityNGOs Non-Governmental OrganizationsNIMES National Integrated Monitoring and Evaluation StrategyNITA National Information Technology AuthorityNMT Non-Motorized TransportNRM National Resistance MovementNSS National Statistics SystemNSSF National Social Security FundNTMs Non-Tariff MeasuresOAG Office of the Auditor GeneralOP Office of the PresidentOPM Office of the Prime MinisterOWC Operation Wealth CreationPAP Project Affected PersonsPAU Petroleum Authority of UgandaPFM Public Finance ManagementPFMA Public Finance Management ActPIPPublic Investment PlanPIMS Public Investment Management StrategyPPDA Public Procurement and Disposal of Public Assets AuthorityPPP Public Private PartnershipPSFU Private Sector Foundation UgandaPSRs Public Sector ReformsPWDs Persons with DisabilitiesQHSSE Quality Health Safety Security and EnvironmentQMS Quality Management Systemsxx
NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYREE Rear Earth ElementsR&D Research and DevelopmentROM Results Oriented ManagmentROW Right of WaySACCOs Saving ad Credit Cooperative OrganizationsSAGE Social Assistance Grant for EmpowermentSDGs Sustainable Development GoalsSDPs Sector Development PlansSGR Standard Gauge RailwaySTEM Science, Technology, Engineering and MathematicsSTI Science Technology and InnovationSTEI Science Technology, Engineering and InnovationSMEs Small and Medium EnterprisesSOE State Owned EnterprisesTRWR Total Renewable Water ResourcesTSA Tourism Satellite AccountTSA Treasury Single AccountTVET Technical and Vocational Education and TrainingUBC Uganda Broadcasting CooperationUCAA Uganda Civil Aviation AuthorityUBOS Uganda Bureau of StatisticsUCC Uganda Communications CommissionUCDA Uganda Coffee Development AuthorityUCE Uganda Commodity ExchangeUDB Uganda Development BankUDC Uganda Development CooperationUEDCL Uganda Electricity Distribution Company LimitedxixiNDPIII 2020/21 – 2024/25
THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 – 2024/25UEGCL Uganda Electricity Generation Company LimitedUETCL Uganda Electricity Transport Company LimitedUEPB Uganda Export Promotions BoardUFZA Uganda Free Zones AreaUHRC Uganda Human Rights CommissionUIRI Uganda Industrial Research InstituteUK United KingdomUMA Uganda Manufactures AssociationUNBS Uganda Bureau of StandardsUNDESA United Nations Department of Economics and Social AffairsUNECA United Nations Economic Commission for AfricaUNMA Uganda National Metrological AuthorityUNOC Uganda National Oil CompanyUPC Uganda People’s CongressUPE Universal Primary EducationUPF Uganda Police ForceUNHS Uganda National Household SurveyUNRA Uganda Road AuthorityURA Uganda Revenue AuthorityURC Uganda Railway CooperationUSE Uganda Securities ExchangeUSSIA Uganda Small Scale Industries AssociationUSMID Uganda Support to Municipal Infrastructure DevelopmentUIA Uganda Investment AuthorityUIRI Uganda Industrial Research InstituteUNBS Uganda National Bureau of StandardsURAUganda Revenue Authorityxiixii
NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYURSB Uganda Registration Service BureauUTB Uganda Tourism BoardUWA Uganda Wildlife AuthorityUWEC Uganda Wildlife Education CentreUWEP Uganda Women Empowerment ProgramUWRSA Uganda Warehouse Receipt Systems AuthorityUVRI Uganda Virus Research InstituteVHTs Village Health TeamsWHO World Health OrganisationYLP Youth Livelihood ProgramxiiixiiiNDPIII 2020/21 – 2024/25
THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 – 2024/25FOREWORDUganda remains committed to the pursuit of socioeconomic transformation as envisioned inthe country’s long-term aspirations. I take this opportunity to present to you the third NationalDevelopment Plan (NDPIII), whose goal is “Increased household incomes and improvedquality of life”. This goal is to be achieved under the overall theme of “SustainableIndustrialization for inclusive growth, employment and sustainable wealth creation”. This is inline with Uganda Vision 2040, EAC Vision 2050, Africa Agenda 2063 and the SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDGs).Since 1986, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) Government has been steadfast inameliorating the living conditions and overall quality of life of the people of Uganda. Theeconomy has done significantly well, most notably in the areas of improved peace and security,maintenance of macroeconomic stability, development of social and economic infrastructureand expansion of access to social services.Over the years, a firm foundation for ‘Take-Off’ has been laid. This is evidenced by the doubledsize of the economy’s GDP from UGX64.23Bn in 2010/11 to 128.49Bn in 2018/19 in additionto significant expansion of economic and social Infrastructure in Energy, ICT, Transport,Health and Education.The pursuit for industrialization is based on the need to accelerate growth of the economy,transform the lives of the people and strengthen the country’s regional and internationalcompetitiveness. During the Plan period, we will focus on enhancing value addition in keygrowth opportunities (Agriculture, Tourism, Minerals, Oil & Gas and Knowledge) which havethe highest potential to generate employment for our people and positive multiplier effects onother sectors. We will continue to invest in maintaining and developing productiveinfrastructure to reduce the cost of doing business and increase connectivity especially for thoseareas that are lagging behind. Increasing productivity, inclusiveness and wellbeing of thepopulation will also be fundamental to improving the quality of life of the labourforce neededfor industrialization as well as the life of Ugandans. In addition, the role of both the public andprivate sector will be strengthened in the delivery of services to the people and creation of jobs.The Plan therefore, has laid out 18 programmes that comprehensively cover the developmentissues we face as a country. By 2025, effective implementation of these programmes isexpected to lead to; average economic growth rate 7 percent, increase income per capita toUSD 1,300, lower poverty rate to 15.4 percent, reduce income inequality (gini-coefficient) to0.39; and further improve health and education outcomes of the population.Achievement of the socioeconomic transformation aspirations is a concerted and collectiveeffort. I urge all Ugandans including the Diaspora community to seize the investmentopportunities presented in this Plan. Particularly, the Private Sector, Civil Society, CulturalInstitutions, Faith-Based Organizations, and Development Partners have a significant role toplay in the realization of the development aspirations. Leaders, policy makers andimplementers should have the right attitude, ideological orientation and patriotism for effectivexivxiv
NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYand efficient service delivery and support to implementation. Similarly, the general publicshould have a positive mindset towards the Plan for its successful implementation.With the assurance of sustained peace, stability and good-governance, which are very essentialin development, we shall realize the goal of this Plan together.I wish to appreciate all those who contributed towards the Development of this Plan.For God and My Country.Yoweri Kaguta MuseveniPRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF UGANDAxvxvNDPIII 2020/21 – 2024/25
THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 – 2024/25EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis National Development Plan (NDP) is the third in a series of six NDPs that will guide thenation in delivering the aspirations articulated in Uganda Vision 2040. The NDPIII (2020/21 –2024/25) is anchored on the progress made, challenges encountered and lessons learnt fromprevious planning and implementation experiences of NDPI and NDPII. The Plan defines thebroad direction for the country and sets key objectives and targets for the sustainablesocioeconomic transformation of Uganda.Achievements, Challenges and Lessons learnedThe key achievements that have been registered over the last decade include:(i)Sustainable peace, security and macro-economic stability continued to prevailproviding the basic anchor for economic growth and development.(ii)The size of economy has doubled from UGX 64 trillion in FY 2010/11 to UGX 128trillion in FY2018/19 in nominal terms.(iii)GDP per capita has grown from USD 844 in FY2011/12 to USD 878 in FY 2018/19,despite the growth in population.(iv)Domestic revenue collection increased from UGX 5.02 Trillion in FY2010/11 to UGX16.359 trillion in FY2018/19 in nominal terms.(v)Total exports of goods and services grew from USD 3.83 billion in FY2010/11 to USD5.3 billion in FY2017/18, nominal terms.(vi)Remittances increased from USD 819 million in FY2010/11 to over USD 1 billion inFY2017/18 in nominal terms.(vii) The total paved roads network as a percentage of total national roads more than doubledfrom 8% in 1986 to 21.1% (or 4,551 km) as of May 2018.(viii) Electricity generation capacity increased from 601MW in 2010 to 1839MW in 2020.(ix)Access to and utilization of education services significantly increased, includingincreased e
NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY i NDPIII 2020/21 - 2024/25 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY January 2020 THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 - 2024/25 VISION "A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years" GOAL "To Increase Average Household Incomes and Improve
