WIXLIB

xvi COMBAT AVIATION: Flight Path SROIVTTJMEMLCALCCLOLOCElectromagneticEstimated Time of ArrivalEuropean UnionElectronic WarfareFlight Control SystemsForward-Looking Infra-RedFlight Refuelling AircraftGround AttackGround Handling EquipmentGovernment of IndiaGlobal Positioning SystemGround Support EquipmentGlobal War on TerrorHigh Altitude and High-Temperature OperationsHindustan Aeronautics LimitedHardened Aircraft SheltersHypersonic Conventional Strike WeaponHelmet Mounted SightsHexanitrohexaazaisowurtzitaneHead-Up DisplayIntegrated Air Defence SystemIndian Air ForceInstitute of Defence Studies and AnalysesImprovised Explosive DevicesImaging Infra-RedInstrument Landing SystemInertial Navigation SystemsInfra-RedIntelligence, Reconnaissance and SurveillanceIndian Space Research OrganisationInter-Valley Troop TransferJoint Munitions Effectiveness ManualLight Combat AircraftLife Cycle CostLow ObservabilityLine of Control

Abbreviations QRSAMR&DRASRCMARCSREERFIRLGROALow Rate Initial ProductionLive/Virtual/ConstructiveMutual Assured DestructionMean Area of EffectivenessMan-Portable Air Defence SystemMission Capable RateMedium Multi-Role Combat AircraftMillimetre WaveMassive Ordnance Air BlastMinistry of DefenceMaintenance ReservesMulti-Role Combat AircraftMean Time Between FailuresNigerian Air ForceNational Military ObjectivesNational Security Risk AssessmentNational Security CouncilOperational Conversion UnitsOriginal Equipment ManufacturerOrder of BattleOver Target RequirementPakistan Air ForceProgramme Acquisition Unit CostPre-Flight MessagePeople’s Liberation Army Air ForcePakistan-Occupied KashmirPrisoners of WarQuick Reaction Surface-to-Air MissilesResearch and DevelopmentRobotic and Autonomous SystemsRegional Centres for Military AirworthinessRadar Cross SectionRange and Endurance EnhancersRequest for InformationRing Laser GyrosRadius of Action

xviii COMBAT AVIATION: Flight Path PTEAMTEZTODSTOTTTLTTUUASUAVUCAVUERadar Warning ReceiverSituational AwarenessSurface-to-Air Guided WeaponsSurface-to-Air MissilesSynthetic Aperture RadarsSoftware-Defined RadioSuppression of Enemy Air DefenceStaff Equipment Policy CommitteeSpecific Fuel ConsumptionSystem Induction CostsSignals IntelligenceStockholm International Peace Research InstituteSea Lanes of CommunicationStrike Off WastageStrategic PartnershipStrategic Partner/ Indian Production AgencyServices Selection BoardsSingle Shot Kill ProbabilitySurface to Surface MissilesShort-Take-Off Vertical-LandingTactical Air NavigationTactics and Combat Development EstablishmentTactical Battle AreaTime Between OverhaulThreat-Based PlanningThoughts, Equipment, Application, and ManagementTarget Engagement ZoneTransparency, Offensive, Defensive and SupportSystemTransfer of TechnologyTotal Technical LifeTarget Towing UnitsUnmanned Aerial SystemUnmanned Aerial VehiclesUnmanned Combat Aerial VehiclesUnit Establishment

Abbreviations xixUGVUMSUSAFVLVORWASPWERWPREWSOXDRUnmanned Ground VehiclesUnmanned Maritime SystemsUnited States Air ForceVertical LaunchVery High-Frequency Omni Directional RangeWeapon Advisory for Staff PlanningWeapon Effective RangeWeapon Precision and Range EnhancersWeapon System OperatorsExtended Data Rate

Introduction: Flight PlanAviation has been a part of military’s kinetic capability for over acentury now with combat aircraft playing a pivotal role in manywars. The conceptual and capability changes in a kinetic force remainintertwined with the prevailing and emerging security scenario.Combat aviation, a key kinetic capability, being technologydependent, needs continuous re-equipping and upgradation.The force structure and organization too need to adapt for anoptimal exploitation of available capability. Combat airpower hastransformed in the last five decades and expanded its capability inall critical facets. With the changing character of war, there is a needto relook at the capability growth plan for combat airpower for itto be relevant in future. With finite financial outlays, rebalancingvarious facets of airpower is essential to achieve the desired end goal.This work attempts to answer specific questions. How has combataviation evolved in the last fifty years? Will combat aviation retainits relevance as a key player in kinetic force application? What rolewill it play in future?Combat aircraft, a powerful component of military strength,need a large resource investment in procurement and operations.The world had around 18,000 combat aircraft in 1968 and fiftyyears later the combat aircraft inventory is again almost at that leveltoday. In five decades, the combat aircraft inventory peaked to near38,000 in 1988. Changes in the geopolitical landscape, alteringcharacter of war, evolving technology and emerging alternatives ledto its gradual decline thereafter. Today, there are 106 countries inthe world that own and operate around 80 types of approximately18,000 combat aircraft. But, there are only 19 countries that have

Introduction xximore than 200 combat aircraft in their inventories. In this book,the available data of the combat aircraft inventory of the worldis analysed for the trends and probable reasons for changes in theholdings before predicting the future trajectory of manned combataircraft. Additionally, the role of combat aircraft and its interplaywith various tenets of Indian air power capability and likely futureis discussed.The book is divided into four parts. In the first part, variousfacets of combat aviation including definitional aspects, forceapplication history and its methodology are deliberated. In thenext part, the trajectory of combat aviation is mapped with specificdetails of combat aircraft inventory from 1968 to 2018. This sectiondiscusses three major factors that impinge on the combat aircraftemployment – weapons, alternatives and enablers. Holistic trendanalysis and plausible reasons thereof too form part of this section.In the third part, the dynamics of combat aviation covers humanresources, financial aspects and emerging trends. A specific case ofcombat aviation in India is covered in the last part before the finaltouchdown.

part iFacets of Combat Aviation

1.Start, Taxy and Take OffThe armed forces are an effective instrument of a country’s politicalwill. Invariably, these forces operate in the realm of uncertainty andare prepared to deal with the confusion associated with war. Thefact is, wars produce only victors and vanquished. That is whenthe kinetic force application is the primary element employed. Ananalysis of ongoing conflicts across the world indicates that theoperational environment, and consequently the force applicationmethods, are transforming. Technology has shaped and improvedthe operational environment in five critical aspects: battlespacetransparency, communication, enhanced effective weapon range,precision targeting, and mobility speed. While these changes haveenlarged the kinetic battlespace, the induction of non-kinetic toolshas transformed conflicts into a multi-domain multi-dimensionalcontinuous process. Hence, it is difficult to identify the enemy or hisintent. Even more difficult is the task to precisely mark the beginningor an end of a conflict. The threats have evolved with advances intechnology and communication. Threats that were earlier containedwithin national boundaries have now become transnational andideational challenges, which respect neither state sovereignty norexisting governance structures. Hybrid war is a reality and binaryoutcomes of war are waning.Aviation has been a part of military kinetic capability for overa century now with combat aircraft playing a pivotal role in manywars since then. Combat airpower has positioned itself to deliverthe punch that today’s geopolitics may require: swift, deep, effective,precise and contained in terms of collateral. With the changingcharacter of war, there is a need to relook at the capability growthplan for combat airpower for it to be relevant in future. With finite

4 COMBAT AVIATION: Flight Path 1968-2018financial outlays, rebalancing various facets of airpower is essentialto achieve the desired end goal.With dynamic changes in the operational environment, the oldmodel of creating self-sufficient independent combat units needs are-visit. Independent units allowed field commanders a great dealof autonomy to wage their battles. Each unit was assigned a smalland specific mission. These small tasks were part of a larger designbut the implications of individual battles were rarely known tofield operators. The changes in the operational environment havenecessitated that a holistic assessment and reassessment be carriedout to match or outpace the conflict. Achieving coherence of all smalltargets for individual units with the evolving big picture, is a difficulttask. Thus, now, the battle primarily needs to be orchestrated at ahigher level for the enlarged battle space so that the available anduseable force can be optimally utilised to achieve the desired goals.This calls for restructuring the way to control the battle space.The Indian security environment has changed considerably in thelast two decades. Peace is elusive and various tenets of hybrid warcontinue to operate.1 In this ‘no peace, no war’ situation, the IndianAir Force (IAF), as a kinetic tool, has undergone many changes toremain relevant in the evolving operational environment. Whilethe character of warfare has transformed, our structures and thecapability development model are half a century behind current times.Recognising the transnational nature of threats today, if we do notmake a concerted effort to catch up in certain domains, the surprisewill be shocking. In any case, except 1971, in all major conflicts thusfar, the Indian armed forces have been comprehensively surprised. Awell-planned mission in 1971 did bring us an unprecedented victoryand 93,000 Prisoners of War (POW).In a developing country like India, a contest for sharing resourcesis fierce. Only a small part can be earmarked for defence andsecurity. These resources are finite and need to be utilised to developcapabilities that will protect us from disasters. Going by existingstructures, the Indian armed forces are too focused on offensivecapabilities as a method of conventional deterrence. Under thesechallenging circumstances, combat aviation has to evolve. As stated

Start, Taxy and Take Off 5succinctly by a veteran fighter pilot Air Cmde Ramesh V Phadke: there has also been excessive emphasis on the numbers of fightersquadrons and insistence on hi-tech equipment, rather than on newand innovative tactics and strategies, and suitable organisation fortheir employment.2While the challenges confronting India have multiplied, acohesive response to them has remained elusive. The changingcharacter of conflict and battle space calls for a changed approach.With each arm constructing frameworks of cooperation forcombat, it is time to exchange ideas on countering evolving threatswhich will define an Indian approach to this issue. Inconsistenciesin the combat approach have been exploited considerably andhave resulted in frequent failures at the tactical, operational andstrategic levels. At this juncture, the Indian Armed Forces must reevaluate the entire gamut of war fighting. For example, without therequisite battle space transparency, we may not be in a position toemploy our offensive capability efficiently. Similarly, new facets ofcommunication, quick mobility, and longer-range weapons needto be synergised in the operational matrix. This can only happenwhen we change the way we intend to fight. A smaller offensivecapability with requisite battle space transparency may be a moresuitable solution at a lower resource cost. Additionally, the armedforces need to enforce the concept of assigning responsibility andensuring accountability within their domains.Thus, a coherent approach is necessary to mitigate our currentand future challenges. To evaluate options, four significant strandsthat need consideration are: Thoughts, Equipment, Application, andManagement (TEAM) (see Annexure 1). The concept of TEAM canassist in developing a well-defined plan and optimise the developmentof India’s military capability to be future-ready. With this directionin mind, the idea is to take the first step of comprehending andevaluating the future trajectory of our armed forces. Thus, in thiscontext, the broad theme is: “Is it time for the armed forces toameliorate their TEAM?” And this work attempts to answer specific

6 COMBAT AVIATION: Flight Path 1968-2018questions. Will combat aviation retain its relevance as a key playerin kinetic force application? How has combat aviation evolved inthe last fifty years and what role will it play in future? Technologicaladvancement in military aviation in terms of propulsion, controldesigns, avionics for navigation, and attack systems along withweaponeering have turned aircraft into a complete combat system.The most profound impact of technology is on aircraft deployedfor weapon delivery. The standoff ranges for weapon delivery havegone beyond 100 km, yet an accuracy of targeting within three tofive meters is retained. Owing to its ability to shape the battle space,combat aircraft is one of the most sought-after military hardware.Therefore, the prime focus of this book is on combat aircraft thathave weapon delivery as their primary task.FrameworkThe absolute number of combat aircraft in the world has seen adownward trend in the last three decades, from a high of over38,000 in 1988 under 18,000 as of 2018. Escalating costs andtimelines of development of new platforms have shifted focus to theincorporation of new capabilities on existing aircraft, thus leadingto a reduction in types of platforms. This study presents data on theworldwide inventory of combat aircraft and thereafter analyses thedata, looking for probable reasons and factors before assessing theIndian scenario and emerging trends therein.DefinitionThe definition of combat aircraft used in different parts of the worldvaries. However, the United Nations defines a combat aircraft ashaving:Fixed-wing or variable-geometry wing aircraft designed, equippedor modified to engage targets by employing guided missiles,unguided rockets, bombs, guns, cannons, or other weapons ofdestruction, including versions of these aircraft which performspecialized electronic warfare, suppression of air defence orreconnaissance missions. The term “combat aircraft” does not

Start, Taxy and Take Off 7include primary trainer aircraft, unless designed, equipped ormodified as described above.3For the collation of data and analyses, a fixed-wing aircraftprimarily employed as a weapon platform has been classifiedas a combat aircraft in consonance with the United Nations’definition. Since inception, the performance of combat aircrafthas undergone major changes in terms of speed, manoeuvrability,weapon carriage capacity, onboard sensors, communicationsystems and data links, Radar Cross Section (RCS), weaponaiming and navigation systems. Today, in different regions of theworld, a wide range of aircraft meet this definition criteria, fromthe low subsonic low load-carrying aircraft to supersonic jets,from aircraft that practically overfly the target while deliveringair-to- surface weapons to a range of fifth-generation aircraftcapable of launching weapons on a target hundreds of kilometresaway. Amongst various states, a wide technological gap exists inthis arena. Therefore, using the data to establish the numericalequivalence relationship between various operators, needs to becarried out cautiously.Observation PeriodThe functional life of an aviation asset is normally defined in termsof Total Technical Life (TTL) or Calendar Life (CL). The TTLcould be a function of the number of hours flown or the numberof events of aviation activity. For example, the life of the airframeof an aircraft could be limited by the number of hours it can flyor by the number of landings or any other similar criteria. WhileCL is life of an aviation asset from its certification date till a predefined time period. Completion of TTL is primarily a function ofrate and quality of utilisation, and ideally should coincide with or bebefore the completion of CL. The functional life of a combat aircraftvaries from 20 to 40 years based on its structure, performance andutilisation quality and rate. To achieve a holistic inventory trend,it, is therefore, imperative that the analysis period encompasses thisrange completely.

8 COMBAT AVIATION: Flight Path 1968-2018Operational relevance is another factor that impinges on thefunctional life of a combat aircraft. The operating environment canchange with one technological breakthrough. Induction of Air-toAir Missile (AAM)-equipped combat aircraft in the conflict zonedrastically diminished the operational relevance of aircraft equippedwith only guns as air-to-air weapons, is one such example. Goingwith the assertion of military theorist Brigadier Richard Simpkin4“for good reason for this rule-of-the thumb figure of 50 years” is aptto assess operational environmental changes. Given all these factors,a period of 50 years from 1968 to 2018 for data collation for analysisis considered apt and in consonance with both the above-mentionedfactors. Historically too, this period is significant. The Royal AirForce UK was the first independent air arm established in 1918. Inthe next 50 years, combat aviation established itself as a significantelement in war. The analysis period covers the next 50 years.Data Span and SourcesBarring aircraft manufacturers and states, there are practically noope

Part IV Combat Aviation Trajectory in India 12. Close Quarters: Combat Aviation Trajectory in India 239 13. Wings and Wheels: India’s Internal Factors 257 14. Dry Cranking Engine: Indian Indigenous Defence Industry 278 15. Touch Down 292 Annexures 1. Team Concept 301 2.