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In Phase 1, we compiled a list of over 100 megatrends from a review of megatrends literature, analysis ofproprietary data and interviews with experts (Figure 2). Each trend was tested to determine its potential impacton the size and scale, role, effectiveness, efficiency and productivity of the APS.Figure 2: Long-list of megatrends that may be relevant to the APS operating environmentAdvances of ��––––––––––Advances of technologyRise of robotics and automationSmart worldRise of biotech and genomicsRise of commercial space travelDigital revolutionRise of quantum computingRise of cloud computingRise in nanotechnologyRise of new materials/substitutesRise in mobile devicesInternet of Things (IoT)Rise of wireless communicationsRise in smart devicesRise in 3D printing/AdditivemanufacturingData driven worldRise of autonomous vehiclesRise of Artificial Intelligence andMachine LearningRise of Virtual Reality/AugmentedRealityDigital IDBlockchainRise of medical technologySocial media adoptionRise of cybersecurity risksChanging �––8Rising citizen expectationsDistrust and demand fortransparencyOmni-channel servicesSimple user-centric systemsProductivity / performance focusRise in customisationRise of environmental concerns &climate changeRise in customisationFocus on health & wellnessDemand for infrastructureRise of resource scarcities includingland, water, energyRise of e-governmentInnovation imperativeFiscal pressure to do more with lessPrivacy and the value of personaldataChanging �––Rise of flexible workingWorkforce shifts to new skillsetsVertical to horizontal value chainsIncrease in organisationalcomplexityDelayering of large organisationsRise of philanthropy & non-profitsRise of sharing economyGrowth of entrepreneurshipDiversity and inclusionUrbanisation / megacities win, vsGeelong / Newcastle modelWar for talentValue migration (rise of services)Rise of Merger and Acquisition(M&A) agilityRise of sharing economyContinuous education and learningGrowth of entrepreneurshipOther potential trends––––––––Tailoring of services to local areasInnovation being driven fromCommonwealth vs. StatesRole of government versus privatesectorInternationalism acrossDepartmentsRedistribution/make-work approachBalance of the economy back tomanufacturing / agriculture / miningdue to industry 4.0/defence spend;vs services/ knowledgeHuman-centred designCollaborative, iterative workapproachesSocietal shifts––––––––Future Scenarios for the APS in 2030The rise of global tech giantsRise of health spendingRise in energy volatilityRise of more sustainable formsof transportationAgeing populationRise of MillennialsRise of multi-gen workforces andsocietiesContinuing population growthfrom migrationSocietal shifts �––––––––Rise of womenObesity and diet as drivers forlifestyle illnessesChange in fertility ratesHealth inequalityGrowing inequalityRise of emerging Asian countriesRise of new mediaReligionNew communitiesRise of environmental concerns andclimate changeRisk and security focusRise of natural disastersRise in demand for alternativeenergy sourcesGlobal pandemic riskIncrease in non-traditional familiesand single person householdsIncreasing brand affinityRise in trading up/down-death of themiddleRise in organicRise in convenience-timecompressionRise in entertainment/ celebrityRise of green products andrenewable energyRise of resource scarcities includingland, water, energyRise in healthcare spendingCommoditisationGlobal dividesRise in capital flows to developingcountriesRise in e/m-commerceRise in global divideRise of RDE challengers/newcompetitor setRise of ChinaRise of IndiaRising middle classNext billion consumersRise of emerging marketsEconomic volatilityRise of philanthropy and non-profitsCorporate social responsibilityDemand for infrastructure

From this analysis, we identifi d a shortlist of 31 megatrends with the most relevance for the APSoperating environment in 2030 (Figure 3). Shortlisted megatrends were grouped into four themes: Changing expectations Advances in technology Societal and geo-political shifts Changing nature of workFigure 3: Shortlist of 31 megatrends identified as most relevant to the APS operatingenvironmentChangingexpectationsAdvances oftechnologySocietal and geopolitical shiftsChangingwork Fiscal pressure to domore with less Increasing citizenexpectations Continued demandfor digital government Growing distrust and demandfor transparency Rise of new media Unclear role of governmentversus private sector andnon-profit/philanthropy Increasing power ofMillennials Tailoring of services tolocal areas Increasing personalisation Increasingly datadriven world More cybersecurity risks Rise of Artificial Intelligence& Machine Learning Continuing innovationimperative Uptake of robotics &automation Rise of quantum computing Ageing population Rise of global tech giants Increasing focus on risk andsecurity Growth of major Asianeconomies Migration continues to drivepopulation growth Growing inequality Continuing urbanisation Changing climate Increasing global instability Workforce shifting to newskillsets More demand for flexibleworking Increasingly multigenerational workforces More collaborative, iterativework approaches Adoption of human-centreddesign Shift from vertical productsiloes to horizontal platforms Increasing desire for purposedriven workTo assess the level of impact that the megatrends could have on the APS we surveyed APS leadership (EL2 andabove), receiving responses from 2,756 leaders across 82 Departments and agencies. The results of the surveywere presented in workshops with global and Australian experts, members of the APS Review Panel, the APSReview Secretariat, and BCG experts. In addition, we interviewed a range of global and Australian experts inmegatrends, scenario planning and public service. From this work, we could identify and prioritise the highestimpact, most uncertain megatrends for the APS.In Phase 2, this list of highest-impact, uncertain megatrends became the basis for three ‘axes of uncertainty’that map the critical dimensions of the megatrends (Figure 4).Figure 4: Axes of uncertaintyLowerPublic confidence in governmentHigherContinuedAdoption of new technologyMore disruptiveMore individualistGlobal contextMore cooperativeFuture Scenarios for the APS in 20309

By focusing on the megatrends with the greatest levels of uncertainty, it is possible to identify scenarios thatboth cover the spectrum of possible futures and challenge orthodox thinking. A focus on megatrends with lowlevels of uncertainty alone, will not robustly test what is necessary for success, however these megatrendsplay out. Though megatrends with low levels of uncertainty are included in the scenarios, they do notdifferentiate between the different possible future environments.In Phase 3, we developed four plausible but thought-provoking scenarios based on a spectrum of outcomesalong these axes (Figure 5). The scenarios are built on the detailed research and analysis undertaken in Phase1. ach scenario is developed by placing it on a chosen point along each of the axes and also reflects thepotential outcomes of the other related megatrends, as shown in Figure 5. The robustness of these scenarios istested using Black Swan and Thinking in new boxes methodologies to make sure they challenged conventionalthinking and stretched the breadth and depth of the scenarios. The purpose of the axes is not to cover allpossible futures, or to predict the actual future, but to make sure the scenarios represent a spectrum ofpossible futures.Figure 5: Scenarios mapped to points on the axes of uncertainty#TechplosionDevolution RevolutionNew world idenceDisruptiveTechMoreCooperative1In Phase 4, we identifi d common success factors for the APS in all four future scenarios, based on a seriesof workshops and interviews with APS executives, the Secretariat and a range of experts. Following this, a gapanalysis compared the current state of the APS to what will be required in the future.In Phase 5, we combined insights from the common success factors and the gap analysis to develop eightrecommendations for the APS to succeed in all possible futures.1 Brabandere, Luc De, and Alan Iny, “Thinking in New Boxes: a New Paradigm for Business Creativity”, Random House, 201310Future Scenarios for the APS in 2030

MegatrendsThe first phase in the scenario development process is tounderstand the megatrends that will affect the future operatingenvironment. Of the shortlisted underlying megatrends that wereidentified as relevant to the APS, 20 were identified as high-impact.These 20 high-impact trends were assessed to test their impact on the APS in 2030 and grouped intofour overarching themes: Changing expectations Advances in technology Societal and geo-political shifts Changing nature of workThe four themes and their highest-impact trends are summarised below. More detailed descriptionsof all the trends are included in the appendix.Theme 1:Changing expectationsThe Australian Public has vastly different expectationsof the Australian Government and the APS than theydid 20 years ago, and these expectations are likelyto keep changing. Expectations cover the role ofthe APS, how it functions, how it engages with theAustralian public, and the transparency and visibilityof its operations. Many changes in expectationwill be driven by broader changes in the economy,technological capacity and access to information,which have the potential to shift the role governmentplays in meeting public needs. The uncertainty ofthis theme is the extent to which these expectationschange and in what direction.Highest-impact megatrends1. Growing distrust and demand for transparency:Public trust in large institutions declines. This drivesincreasing scrutiny of all decision making. Pressurebuilds on the APS to provide more transparentprocesses and stronger accountability mechanisms.2. Tailoring services to local areas: People aremore focused on their local area and place greaterlegitimacy in local solutions and local organisations.Authority, policy development, and service delivery forspecific demographic and environmental requirementsdevolves to local government.3. Fiscal pressure to do more with less:Governments face increasing pressure to spendefficiently, justify public spending and demonstrateeffectiveness, driven by the aging and growingpopulation.4. Increasing citizen expectations: Australianpublic expect government service levels to keep upwith increasing expectations shaped by experienceof other organisations. Pressure builds on the APSto match, or exceed, the quality of service providedby leading institutions.5. Continued demand for digital government: Moregovernment interactions with the Australian publicoccur through digital channels. This drives increasingdemand for the APS to develop and procure newdigital platforms to deliver or facilitate core services.Future Scenarios for the APS in 203011

Theme 2:Advances in technologyRapidly evolving technology, powered bydata, has pushed the world forward at anever-increasing pace, which is expected tocontinue into the 2020s. Data generation andhyper-scale computing has exploded in thelast ten years and shows no signs of slowing.Computational power, data visualisation anddata analysis techniques are expected tokeep advancing. Once automation passes atipping point, it could fundamentally changeall aspects of work and society. There issignificant uncertainty in how this will playout. The development and adoption ofspecific technologies could continue, slow oraccelerate. It is unclear how society will reactto the advances of different technologies.Government, will face challenges in respondingto social change and potential dislocation,tackling cyber-security threats, and managinga re-shaping economy. Opportunities will arisefor government to harness the power of dataand technology to understand public needs,solve complex problems and drive policy.Highest-impact megatrends1. Rise of quantum computing: An increase incomputing power means more information can beprocessed exponentially faster and using less energy,with the potential to change the type and volume ofanalysis undertaken by the APS.2. Rise of artificial intelligence and machinelearning: Increasing developments and newapplications of artificial intelligence and machinelearning offer possibilities to improve processes withinthe APS and service delivery for the Australian public.3. Increasingly data driven world: The amountof data stored, processed and published increasesexponentially. Citizens expect value in exchange forsharing data, as well as security about how their datawill be used and protected. Managing informationand extracting value from it will become a criticalcapability for the APS.4. Uptake of robotics and automation: Theapplication of robotics and automation drivesefficiency and improves the public’s experience. Thisdisplaces some jobs previously done by humans andcreates demand for new skill sets.5. More cybersecurity risks: A large amount ofdata is stored on internet-connected systems. Thisincreases the risk posed by unauthorised access tointernal systems and many organisations lack the skillset to adequately protect themselves against this risk.At the same time, citizen expectations of the APS tominimise this risk also increase.12Future Scenarios for the APS in 2030

Theme 3:Societal and geo-political shiftsSociety is very different today than it was 15years ago and is likely be substantially differentagain in the future. What it means to be‘Australian’, who we are, where we are from, whatwe are concerned about, and where economicand political power resides will change. This willbe driven by a mix of local and global trends ineconomics, technology, politics, education anddemographics. The nature and role of local,regional and global spheres will change. The wayindividuals and groups respond to the trendsimpacting Australia will reshape the future ofAustralian society. Government will need toadjust to respond appropriately to societalshifts. For example, government will need tomanage its perceived or actual legitimacy,citizen expectations of government, the level ofcontrol and influence it has, and how it deliverssocietal outcomes. Many of the trends thatwill determine this change are a combinationof global influences and actors and therefore,highly uncertain.Highest-impact megatrends1. Increasing global instability: Changes inthe global, political and economic environmentshift nation state power dynamics and modes ofcommunication, with potential waves of populistnationalist sentiment or a resurgence in globalism.2. Rise of the global tech giants: The prominenceand impact of mega data mean the tech giants havestrong relationships with Australians and are anintegral part of their daily lives. The growth of theirpower raises questions of partnerships, regulationand ownership of service delivery for the APS.3. Growing inequality: Distribution of assets, skillsand opportunities within Australia increases. Failureto address it reduces credibility of the APS. Inequalityis not limited to financial measures. It includesdisparities in health outcomes, education outcomesand technology literacy and engagement.4. Growth of major Asian economies: China, Indiaand Indonesia account for more than half of theworld’s economic growth to 2030. As the largesteconomies in the world, these nations become criticalplayers in the physical and economic of Australia.5. Increasing focus on risk and security: Factorsincluding global terror, information security risks, andawareness of environmental threats drive continuedfocus on risk and security at individual, state andnational levels.6. Ageing population: As a result of life expectancylengthening and fertility rates remaining low thereis a steady increase in the proportion of Australia’spopulation aged over 60. This causes the APS torethink social service and health systems, and caterfor an older and more age diverse workforce.Future Scenarios for the APS in 203013

Theme 4:Changing nature of workSome degree of automation is highly likelyto occur in the 2020’s. Less certain ishow fast this happens, the extent of rolesimpacted, how the technologies evolve andhow companies and the workforce responds.The impact on Australian society and theAustralian economy is also likely to besignificant, with changes to the jobs that exist,the skillsets needed, working patterns andemployment terms.Highest impact megatrends1. Workforce shifting to new skillsets:Changes in the economy and technology changethe nature of work and skillsets required forspecific jobs.2. More demand for flexible working:Employees increasingly expect employers tooffer flexible work arrangements (e.g. time,location, tools and teaming). These are criticalto attract and retain talent, particularly as jobsincreasingly shift to higher skilled roles and afocus on emerging technologies.3. More collaborative, iterative workapproaches: New, flexible and more nimblework approaches become prevalent, driven bychanges in technology and work. New servicedelivery approaches focus on value, outcomeand speed of delivery.4. Changing organisational structures:Traditional vertical organisational hierarchiesmove towards flatter, horizontal platforms asagile working approaches become the normand the increasing use of technology reducesfrontline roles.14Future Scenarios for the APS in 2030

ScenariosWe used these megatrends to develop four scenarios that depictthe operating environment for the APS in 2030: #techsplosion,WikiGov, Devolution Revolution and the New World (dis)order.These scenarios were designed to explore the range ofpossible future environments based on the potential trajectoriesof these megatrends.Across the four scenarios, different megatrends have been selected, and there is variation in howstrongly those megatrends have played out. The megatrends were analysed, in workshops and expertdiscussions, to identify what the APS would need to look like in each scenario, and how it would needto function to be successful. The following descriptions set out each scenario and how the APS wouldneed to function differently compared to today to be successful.It is important to keep in mind that the scenarios are not a predication of the future. Rather,they demonstrate a broad spectrum of poss

the future. The APS Review Secretariat engaged The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) to undertake a scenario planning exercise to inform its recommendations. Together we developed four scenarios for the APS in 2030, and identified the key success factors for each scenario. We undertook