Stock Investing - The Market 101

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StockInvestingFORDUMmIES2ND‰EDITIONby Paul Mladjenovic

StockInvestingFORDUMmIES2ND‰EDITION

StockInvestingFORDUMmIES2ND‰EDITIONby Paul Mladjenovic

Stock Investing For Dummies , 2nd EditionPublished byWiley Publishing, Inc.111 River St.Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774www.wiley.comCopyright 2006 by Wiley Publishing, Inc., Indianapolis, IndianaPublished simultaneously in CanadaNo part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form orby any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior writtenpermission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee tothe Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-646-8600.Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Legal Department, Wiley Publishing,Inc., 10475 Crosspoint Blvd., Indianapolis, IN 46256, 317-572-3447, fax 317-572-4355, or online athttp://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.Trademarks: Wiley, the Wiley Publishing logo, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, A Reference for theRest of Us!, The Dummies Way, Dummies Daily, The Fun and Easy Way, Dummies.com and related tradedress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and/or its affiliates in the UnitedStates and other countries, and may not be used without written permission. All other trademarks are theproperty of their respective owners. Wiley Publishing, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendormentioned in this book.LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THECONTENTS OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUTLIMITATION WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. NO WARRANTY MAY BE CREATEDOR EXTENDED BY SALES OR PROMOTIONAL MATERIALS. THE ADVICE AND STRATEGIES CONTAINEDHEREIN MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERY SITUATION. THIS WORK IS SOLD WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THE PUBLISHER IS NOT ENGAGED IN RENDERING LEGAL, ACCOUNTING, OR OTHERPROFESSIONAL SERVICES. IF PROFESSIONAL ASSISTANCE IS REQUIRED, THE SERVICES OF A COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL PERSON SHOULD BE SOUGHT. NEITHER THE PUBLISHER NOR THE AUTHORSHALL BE LIABLE FOR DAMAGES ARISING HEREFROM. THE FACT THAT AN ORGANIZATION ORWEBSITE IS REFERRED TO IN THIS WORK AS A CITATION AND/OR A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF FURTHERINFORMATION DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE AUTHOR OR THE PUBLISHER ENDORSES THE INFORMATION THE ORGANIZATION OR WEBSITE MAY PROVIDE OR RECOMMENDATIONS IT MAY MAKE.FURTHER, READERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT INTERNET WEBSITES LISTED IN THIS WORK MAY HAVECHANGED OR DISAPPEARED BETWEEN WHEN THIS WORK WAS WRITTEN AND WHEN IT IS READ.For general information on our other products and services, please contact our Customer CareDepartment within the U.S. at 800-762-2974, outside the U.S. at 317-572-3993, or fax 317-572-4002.For technical support, please visit www.wiley.com/techsupport.Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print maynot be available in electronic books.Library of Congress Control Number: 2005935151ISBN-13: 978-0-7645-9903-3ISBN-10: 0-7645-9903-8Manufactured in the United States of America10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 12O/QZ/RS/QV/IN

About the AuthorPaul Mladjenovic is a certified financial planner practitioner, writer, andpublic speaker who has a Web site at www.mladjenovic.com. His business,PM Financial Services, has helped people with financial and business concernssince 1981. In 1985 he achieved his CFP designation. Since 1983, Paul has taughtthousands of budding investors through popular national seminars such as“The 50 Wealthbuilder” and “Stock Investing Like a Pro.” Paul has been quotedor referenced by many media outlets such as Bloomberg, MarketWatch, CNBC,and many financial and business publications and Web sites. As an author,he has written the books The Unofficial Guide to Picking Stocks (Wiley, 2000)and Zero-Cost Marketing (Todd Publications, 1995). In 2002, the first edition ofStock Investing For Dummies was ranked in the top 10 out of 300 books reviewedby Barron’s. In recent years, Paul accurately forecasted many economic events,such as the rise of gold and the decline of the U.S. dollar. At press time he hasbeen warning his students and clients about the coming decline in housing.He maintains a financial database for his readers and students at www.supermoneylinks.com

DedicationFor my beloved Fran, Adam, Joshua, and a loving, supportive family, I thankGod for you.I also dedicate this book to the millions of investors who deserve moreknowledge and information to achieve lasting prosperity.Author’s AcknowledgmentsFirst and foremost, I offer my appreciation and gratitude to the wonderfulpeople at Wiley. It has been a pleasure to work with such a top-notch organization that works so hard to create products that offer readers tremendousvalue and information. I wish all of you continued success! There are somenotables there whom I want to single out.The first person is Jennifer Connolly (my project editor). She is a true publishing and writing professional who has been extremely helpful, understanding,and patient. Those words are not enough to express my thanks for her fantasticguidance. May God bless her growing family! (Jennifer took over in mid-streamfor the wonderful Sherri Pfouts.)Sarah Faulkner (my copy editor) has made sure my mish-mash of contentis readable and professional (no small feat). I thank her sincerely and I amgrateful she worked on this book with her impressive editing skills.The technical editor Steven Dolvin is a superb financial pro. His expertise andinsights have helped me improve the content for you and have helped melearn as well. I wish him continued success.My gratitude goes out to the acquisitions editor Stacy Kennedy for makingthis For Dummies book happen. For Dummies books don’t magically appearat the bookstore, they happen due to the foresight and efforts of people likeStacy. Wiley is fortunate to have her (and the others also mentioned)!Fran, Lipa Zyenska, you helped make those late nights at the computer moretolerable, and you helped me focus on the important things. Te amo andI thank God that you are by my side. With you and the rest of my lovingfamily, I know that the future will be bright.Lastly, I want to acknowledge you, the reader. Over the years, you have madethe For Dummies books what they are today. Your devotion to these wonderful books created a foundation that played a big part in the creation of thisbook and many more yet to come. Thank you!

Publisher’s AcknowledgmentsWe’re proud of this book; please send us your comments through our Dummies online registrationform located at www.dummies.com/register.Some of the people who helped bring this book to market include the following:Acquisitions, Editorial, andMedia DevelopmentProject Editor: Jennifer ConnollyAcquisitions Editor: Stacy KennedyCopy Editor: Sarah FaulknerTechnical Editor: Steven Dolvin, PhD, CFAEditorial Managers: Christine Meloy Beck,Michelle HackerComposition ServicesProject Coordinator: Adrienne MartinezLayout and Graphics: Carl Byers, Andrea Dahl,Stephanie D. Jumper, Heather RyanProofreaders: Carl Pierce,TECHBOOKS Production ServicesIndexer: TECHBOOKS Production ServicesEditorial Supervisor: Carmen KrikorianEditorial Assistants: Hanna K. Scott, Nadine BellCartoons: Rich Tennant (www.the5thwave.com)Publishing and Editorial for Consumer DummiesDiane Graves Steele, Vice President and Publisher, Consumer DummiesJoyce Pepple, Acquisitions Director, Consumer DummiesKristin A. Cocks, Product Development Director, Consumer DummiesMichael Spring, Vice President and Publisher, TravelKelly Regan, Editorial Director, TravelPublishing for Technology DummiesAndy Cummings, Vice President and Publisher, Dummies Technology/General UserComposition ServicesGerry Fahey, Vice President of Production ServicesDebbie Stailey, Director of Composition Services

Contents at a GlanceIntroduction .1Part I: The Essentials of Stock Investing .7Chapter 1: Exploring the Basics .9Chapter 2: Taking Stock of Your Current Financial Situation and Goals .17Chapter 3: Defining Common Approaches to Stock Investing.35Chapter 4: Recognizing the Risks .45Chapter 5: Say Cheese: Getting a Snapshot of the Market .59Part II: Before You Start Buying .69Chapter 6: Gathering Information .71Chapter 7: Going for Brokers .89Chapter 8: Investing for Growth .101Chapter 9: Investing for Income .115Chapter 10: Using Basic Accounting to Choose Winning Stocks .127Part III: Picking Winners .143Chapter 11: Decoding Company Documents .145Chapter 12: Analyzing Industries .157Chapter 13: Emerging Sector Opportunities.167Chapter 14: Money, Mayhem, and Votes .181Part IV: Investment Strategies and Tactics .195Chapter 15: Taking the Bull (Or Bear) by the Horns.197Chapter 16: Choosing a Strategy That’s Just Right for You .209Chapter 17: Understanding Brokerage Orders and Trading Techniques .217Chapter 18: Getting a Handle on DPPs, DRPs, and DCA . . . PDQ .233Chapter 19: Looking at What the Insiders Do: Corporate Hijinks .243Chapter 20: Tax Benefits and Obligations .255Part V: The Part of Tens .267Chapter 21: Ten Warning Signs of a Stock’s Decline .269Chapter 22: Ten Signals of a Stock Price Increase.275Chapter 23: Ten Ways to Protect Yourself from Fraud .281Chapter 24: Ten Challenges and Opportunities for Stock Investors.289

Part VI: Appendixes .295Appendix A: Resources for Stock Investors.297Appendix B: Financial Ratios .311Index .319

Table of ContentsIntroduction.1About This Book.1Conventions Used in This Book .2What You’re Not to Read.2Foolish Assumptions .3How This Book Is Organized.3Part I: The Essentials of Stock Investing .3Part II: Before You Start Buying .4Part III: Picking Winners .4Part IV: Investment Strategies and Tactics .5Part V: The Part of Tens.5Part VI: Appendixes.6Icons Used in This Book.6Where to Go from Here.6Part I: The Essentials of Stock Investing.7Chapter 1: Exploring the Basics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Understanding the Basics .9Getting Prepared before You Get Started.10Knowing How to Pick Winners .10Recognizing stock value .10Understanding how market capitalization affects stock value .11Sharpening your investment skills.12Boning Up on Strategies and Tactics .14Getting Some Good Tips.14Chapter 2: Taking Stock of Your CurrentFinancial Situation and Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17Establishing a Starting Point.18Step 1: Making sure you have an emergency fund .19Step 2: Listing your assets in decreasing order of liquidity.19Step 3: Listing your liabilities.22Step 4: Calculating your net worth.23Step 5: Analyzing your balance sheet .24

xiiStock Investing For Dummies, 2nd EditionFunding Your Stock Program .26Step 1: Tallying up your income .27Step 2: Adding up your outgo .28Step 3: Creating a cash flow statement.29Step 4: Analyzing your cash flow.30Finding investment money in tax savings .31Setting Your Sights on Your Financial Goals.31Chapter 3: Defining Common Approaches to Stock Investing . . . . . .35Matching Stocks and Strategies with Your Goals.35Investing for the Future .37Focusing on the short term.37Considering intermediate-term goals .38Preparing for the long term.39Investing for a Purpose .39Making loads of money quickly: Growth investing .40Steadily making money: Income investing .40Investing for Your Personal Style .42Conservative investing .42Aggressive investing .43Chapter 4: Recognizing the Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45Exploring Different Kinds of Risk .46Financial risk .46Interest rate risk .47Understanding the adverse effects of rising interest rates.48Market risk .50Inflation risk .51Tax risk .52Political and governmental risks.52Personal risks .52Emotional risk.53Minimizing Your Risk .55Gaining knowledge .55Staying out . . . for now .55Getting your financial house in order.56Diversifying your investments.56Weighing Risk Against Return.57Chapter 5: Say Cheese: Getting a Snapshot of the Market . . . . . . . . .59Knowing How Indexes Are Measured .59Checking Out the Indexes .60The Dow Jones Industrial Average.61Nasdaq indexes.64

Table of ContentsStandard & Poor’s 500.64Russell 3000 Index .65Wilshire Total Market Index .65International indexes .66Using the Indexes .67Tracking the indexes.67Investing in indexes .67Part II: Before You Start Buying.69Chapter 6: Gathering Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71Looking to Stock Exchanges for Answers .72Understanding Stocks and the Companies They Represent .73Accounting for taste and a whole lot more.73Understanding how economics affects stocks .74Staying on Top of Financial News .77Figuring out what a company’s up to .78Discovering what’s new with an industry .78Knowing what’s happening with the economy.78Seeing what the politicians and governmentbureaucrats are doing .79Checking for trends in society, culture, and entertainment .79Reading (And Understanding) Stock Tables.8052-week high.8152-week low .81Name and symbol.82Dividend.82Volume .82Yield .83P/E .84Day last .84Net change.85Using News about Dividends .85Looking at important dates.85Understanding why these dates matter .87Evaluating (Avoiding?) Investment Tips .87Chapter 7: Going for Brokers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89Defining the Broker’s Role.89Distinguishing between Full-Service and Discount Brokers .91Full-service brokers.91Discount brokers .93xiii

xivStock Investing For Dummies, 2nd EditionChoosing a Broker.94Discovering Various Types of Brokerage Accounts.95Cash accounts.95Margin accounts .96Option accounts .97Judging Brokers’ Recommendations .97Chapter 8: Investing for Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101Becoming a Value-Oriented Growth Investor .102Getting Tips for Choosing Growth Stocks.103Making the right comparison.103Checking out a company’s fundamentals.104Looking for leaders and megatrends .104Considering a company with a strong niche .105Noticing who’s buying and/or recommending the stock .105Learning investing lessons from history .106Evaluating the management of a company .107Making sure a company continues to do well .110Exploring Small-caps and Speculative Stocks .110Avoid IPOs, unless . . .111If it’s a small-cap stock, make sure it’s making money .112Investing in small-cap stocks requires analysis .112Chapter 9: Investing for Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115Understanding Income Stocks.116Advantages of income stocks .116Disadvantages of income stocks .117Analyzing Income Stocks.118Understanding your needs first.118Checking out yield.120Checking the stock’s payout ratio.122Diversifying your stocks.123Examining the company’s bond rating .123Exploring Some Typical Income Stocks .124Utilities.124Real estate investment trusts (REITs) .124Royalty trusts.126Chapter 10: Using Basic Accountingto Choose Winning Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127Recognizing Value When You See It .127Understanding different types of value .129Putting the pieces together.130Accounting for Value.131Walking on a wire: The balance sheet.132Looking at the income statement.135Tooling around with ratios.138

Table of ContentsPart III: Picking Winners .143Chapter 11: Decoding Company Documents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .145Getting a Message from the Muckety-Muck: The Annual Report.145Analyzing the annual report’s anatomy.146Going through the proxy materials .149Getting a Second Opinion .150Company documents filed with the SEC .150Value Line .152Standard & Poor’s.152Moody’s Investment Service.153Brokerage reports: The good, the bad, and the ugly .153Compiling Your Own Research Department.155Chapter 12: Analyzing Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .157Badgering the Witness and Interrogating the Industries .158Is the industry growing? .158Are the industry’s products or services in demand? .159What does the industry’s growth rely on? .160Is this industry dependent on another industry? .160Who are the leading companies in the industry?.161Is the industry a target of government action? .161Which category does the industry fall into?.162Outlining Key Industries.163For sale .164Baby, you can drive my car.165Thanking Mr. Roboto .165Banking on it .165Chapter 13: Emerging Sector Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .167Bullish Opportunities .168Commodities: Feeding and housing the world .168Energy .169Gold .170Silver .172Healthcare .173National Security .173Bearish Outlook.174Warning on housing .174The great credit monster.176Cyclical stocks .177Important for Bulls & Bears .177Conservative and bullish.178Aggressive and bullish.178Conservative and bearish .

Stock Investing For Dummies was ranked in the top 10 out of 300 books reviewed by Barron’s. In recent years, Paul accurately forecasted many economic events, such as the rise of gold