Transcription
Trends in the truck& trailer marketMarket studyMunich, August 2018
DisclaimerThis study was prepared by Roland Berger GmbH ("RB") and is based on publicly available information which has not been independently verified by RB, as well ascertain assumptions, general assessments, projections and experience derived from RB's consulting activities, in each case as at the time of the study's preparation.Any assumptions, assessments, projections and experience values contained in this study involve significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis, which mayor may not be correct. Neither RB, nor any of its affiliates, partners, employees or agents provide a guarantee or warranty (express or implied), or accept any liability orother form of responsibility with respect to the authenticity, origin, validity, accuracy, completeness or relevance of any information, assumption, assessment, projectionand experience.To the extent this study contains statements or projections which are forward-looking, neither RB nor any of its affiliates, partners, employees or agents provide aguarantee or warranty (express or implied) or accept any liability or other form of responsibility in the event that the actual future developments differ from thestatements and projections in this study. Even if changes and events occurring after the publication of this study do impact the validity, accuracy, completeness orrelevance of this study, RB does not assume or accept any liability to update, amend or revise this study, but reserves the right to do so at its free discretion.Individual figures (including percentages) appearing in this report may have been rounded according to standard business practice. Figures rounded in this manner maynot necessarily add up to the totals contained in a given table. However, actual values, and not the figures rounded according to standard business practice, were usedin calculating the percentages indicated in the text.20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx2
ContentsPageA.Megatrends in the commercial vehicle industryB.Truck & trailer market development (spotlight on Europe)19C.Impact on truck & trailer components (examples)33D.Roland Berger505. Roland Berger20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx3
Management summaryWe expect four main trends, new Logistics, Electrification/alternative drives, Autonomous trucks and Digitalization ("LEAD"),to shape the CV industry over the next decade – yet autonomous vehicles (Level 4/5) barely roadworthy before 2023These four megatrends, as well as a set of region-specific drivers, are expected to lead to a continued positive development ofthe truck & trailer market over the coming yearsE.g., on average, Europe's production of medium/heavy duty trucks and buses 8 t is expected to grow by 1.3% p.a. until2020. The main growth driver will be Eastern European countriesEuropean Trailer production continuously grew by 5% p.a. until 2017 driven by Western Europe. In the coming years themarket is expected to remain rather flatCV systems technology upgrade prior to 2023 is expected to be mainly driven by "conventional" business metrics with main driversbeing regulatory "push" (increased safety/emission levels) and operator "pull" (TCO improvement)In future, the largest share of value in tractor trucks will remain with powertrain and cabin, however connectivity solutions and driverassistance systems are expected to gain importance – Demand for ADAS (particularly LDWS, ACC, AEBS) is expected to increasefurtherMarket growth of related component systems in Europe is expected to outperform the truck and bus production growth rate(CAGR 2016-22E): Market growth p.a. of braking systems: 3.5-4%, powertrain: 7-8%, steering systems: 9-10%, ADAS: 10-12%For trailers, analysis of selected components shows a similar pattern – while today, the largest share of value in a standard trailerlies in chassis and structural elements, a clear shift towards connectivity systems is expectedIn this context, a set of key success factors for the truck and trailer market was identified – reputation and customer relationship aremost important from the customer perspective for both OESs and OEMs; High product quality and delivery reliability are alsoimportant factors, however they are all considered an obligatory condition and a standard qualifierAs differentiating factors, besides price competitiveness, technical capabilities and power to innovate are considered essentialUSPs for market players and expected to further increase in importance, given the underlying market trendsSource: Roland Berger20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx4
A. Megatrends in thecommercial vehicleindustry20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx5
We expect four main trends to shape the commercial vehicleindustry over the next decadeKey trends for the truck and trailer marketLNewLogisticsEElectrification/alternative drivesChanges in the logisticslandscape will affect today'scustomer structure of truck &trailer OEMs – Furthergrowth of large fleetsexpectedCV electrification is driven byregulation and local emissionoptimizationMoreover, new players andbusiness models will evolveas the transport industrycontinues to change towardsa digital platform ecosystemLow TCO benefits limit pulleffect from fleetsOverall, strongerspecialization of players(asset heavy vs. asset light)is expectedSource: Roland BergerIn Europe: need for low/zeroemission buses and innercity delivery vehiclesOEMs are facing heavyinvestment demands – Newvehicle architectures requiredSuppliers may benefit fromincrease in value add, e.g.electric axlesAAutonomoustrucksAutomated trucks addressseveral challenges: hours-ofservice, safety, drivershortages and fuel costsFast payback of investmentcan only be achieved in afew applications with a highshare of truck platooning inthe early stagesDDigitalizationThe evolution of digitaltechnologies and culture willcreate new use cases, e.g. inthe context of advanced truck& trailer telematicsMoreover, AI-basedoptimization methods drivedown congestion, lowutilization and costsSignificant cost savings areexpected only in the longterm with driverless trucksSafety regulation will becomea major driver20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx6
New LogisticsThe logistics landscape changes are expected to affect the currentcustomer structure of truck & trailer OEMsCustomer structure – Status quo and trends (example Western Europe)Customer segmentsFleet eet operator Works as subcontractor and/or covers marketniche Lower professionalization due to lack ofeconomies of scaleMunicipalities Fleets operated by public authorities Transport not a core functionSpecial vehiclefleet operator Focus on specific transport needs High professionalization in their segmentLarge fleetoperator Large logistics providers or large corporatefleets Highly professionalized, e.g. some with ownrepair shopsTrend:DecreasingIncreasingSource: Expert interviews; desk research; Roland BergerTrend1 15-25%Affected by marketconsolidation but coveringmarket niches2-20 35-40%Affected by marketconsolidation due tocompetitive disadvantagesup to 100 5-10%Ongoing privatization partlyresulting in decreasing relevance1-5 5%Stable demand in the comingyears expected (dependingon industry segment) 100 25-35%Growth due to cost advantages (e.g. due to own repairshops, improved utilization) Truck driver owns truck Works as subcontractor and/or coversmarket nicheStableMarket share1)1) Estimate for Western Europe20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx7
New LogisticsThe transport industry will continue to change towards a digitalplatform ecosystemSurviving players in the logistics industry ("endgame 2030 ")Booking & optimizationplatforms (BOP)Carrier, terminal operators, Supply chaintrucking companies (CTO) specialists (SCS)Serviceproviders (SP)1) Independent platform for themanagement of logisticstransactions Asset holders and operatorsperforming logistics tasks Solution provider for complexor industry-specific tasks High asset and costefficiency In-depth understanding ofindustry-specific supplychains New players, hardwareproviders and existing onlineplayers Route and cost optimizationcapabilitiesNew players inservices (especiallyin BOP) Either specialized orstandardizedProfit pool shift awayfrom the businessof traditional freightforwardersIncreasing number oflarge freight carriers& trucking companiesvs. supply chainspecialists Provision of support servicesfor logistics companiesStronger specializationof players (asset heavyvs. asset light)1) Active in multiple industriesSource: Roland Berger20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx8
New LogisticsFurther new logistics business models will emerge – Today, stillmostly related to city transportNew logistics business models – ExamplesSame-day delivery – shutl.com: Realization of shortest delivery timeswith attractive pricing on basis of a broad network of carriers andpartnerships.City freight consolidation platform – Cargo hopper: Provision ofefficiently bundled shipments through electric transportation vehicles.Own car as delivery box – Volvo Drop-off/Pick-up System: Testingof a system that allows consumers to have their shopping deliveredstraight to their car.Digital logistics agents – Sennder: Digital logistics agent and fullforwarding service for entire transportation route. Avoiding different subcontractors reduces transportation costs. InstaFreight follows the samebusiness model.Route optimization – Routific: Smart trucks are navigated by GPS andtelematics data to ensure optimized route and capacity utilization.FTL1) freight brokerage for shippers and carriers – Transfix:Manufacturers & distributors can connect with a truck driver networkshipping long-haul freight across the U.S. Parties are connected by amobile app.Smart Trucks – DHL: DHL combines advanced technology with dynamicroute planning in its vehicles to increase efficiency in both pickup anddelivery.Shared logistics concept – Gogovan: Offering of logistics-on-demand,e.g. in Hong Kong – Currently 26,000 registered drivers.City freight consolidation platform – CARGONEXX: Brokerageservice for bundling of shipments from different wholesalers/manufacturers to serve customers within one specific area.Potential city logistics concepts – FreightExchange: Without a specifictime schedule, hitchhiking is the most efficient mean of transportation asoperators can sell unused capacity to businesses that need to shipgoods.senden24 offers spontaneous urban instant delivery. For B2B, B2C andC2C. Service available 24/7. Pickup within 5 min. Delivery within 1 hour.On demand. Any place. Any time.RYTLE provides the first holistic and interconnected concept of citylogistics. Consists of a unique cargo bike called MOVR, a standardizedBOX and a mobile HUB.Smartlane is an easy-to-use web-based delivery management softwarefocusing on automated tour planning and optimizing as well as simplifiedprocess controlling.Quiqup is a London-based on-demand delivery company formed in2014. Founded originally to let consumers order anything for local samehour delivery, Quiqup has since expanded its proposition to provide lastmile delivery to businesses of any size and sector.1) Full truck loadSource: Company information; Roland Berger20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx9
Electrification/ alternative drivesRegulation, for example access restrictions in cities, is expected todrive electrification of trucks and busesOverview of selected city access restrictions – ExamplesLondonParisHamburgFuturerestrictions In 2019 an Ultra Low Emission Zone(ULEZ) will be established Until October 2021 it will cover the samearea as the congestion charge zone –Thereafter expansion to an areabounded by North & South Circular Trucks, buses and coaches need tomeet Euro VI emission standards Daily charges if restrictions are not met Since July 2016, all vehicles must reachat least Euro 1 emission standards Between 2017 and 2020, Euro 2, 3 and 4will be phased out The anti-pollution plan further envisages aban on old diesel vehicles and acomplete ban on diesel cars by 2020 Free parking for electric vehicles Partial access restrictions have beenput in place (April 2018) on specific routesinto the city for trucks not meeting EuroVI standards Further and more restrictive accessrestrictions expected in other Germancities until 2019 (e.g. Stuttgart)Expected impacton buses andtrucksA possible diesel ban or ICE ban could significantly influence the transportation sector as well as the public transportsector as there are a multitude of applications for inner-city driving:MDT: Delivery trucks for shops; HDT: Construction sector; Bus: Local transportationSource: Press; Roland Berger20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx10
Electrification/ alternative drivesAside from regulation, applicability of BEV and HEV strongly dependson respective use casesUse cases for BEV/HEV – ExamplesUse caseIntracity / urbanConstructionLong haulShort haulSegmentMedium dutyMedium dutyMedium dutyHeavy dutyHeavy dutyTravel dist. p.a. 40,000 km 40,000 km 20.000 km 100.000 km 75,000 kmTank volume100-300 l100-300 l100-300 l500-700 l300-500 lFuel typeDieselDieselDieselDieselDieselØ mileage per day 50 km 100 km50-100 km 100 km 100 kmHighway sIndication ofprioritybased 02120252030today202120252030vs.HEV Expected focus of new vehicle registrations (Europe 28) 1% of total registrationsSource: Company information; expert interviews; Roland Berger20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx11
Electrification/ alternative drivesLaunch of several new xEV-MDT/HDT models is planned for thecoming years – Multiple third-party outfitters already activePlanned SOPs of selected xEV-MDT/HDT 0BEV50-300BEV200BEV160-500BEV200-400BEVE-FORCE E18350BEVEmoss EMS 16/18 Series / EVER Semi/Rigid125-2501)BEV V20182019MDTFreightliner eM2Emoss EMS 10/12 SerieseTransportBYD T9HDTSelection20202021E-Fuso eCanter2022202320242025Freightliner eM2eTransportCummins AEOSMercedes-Benz eActrosFreightliner eCascadiaMercedes-Benz eActrosFreightliner eCascadiaNikola OneDAF CF ElectricTerberg RosRoca eCollectTesla SemiMAN eTruckMAN eTruckRenault Trucks D Z.E. / D Wide Z.E.Volvo FE/FL ElectricPilotSOP (minimum volume production)To be launchedLaunched1) EVER Semi/Rigid range 250 km 2) CNG/LPG Range extender; EVER Semi/Rigid only 3) According to company announcementsSource: Official company information; press research; IHS; Roland BergerLaunch date not announced20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx12
Autonomous trucksThe emergence of autonomous driving is one of the key disruptivetrends and will trigger changes in products and servicesTechnology roadmap autonomous drivingStage 0No AutomationDriver is fully engagedall the time, warningsignals might bedisplayed Stage 2Partial AutomationStage 1Driver AssistanceAutomation ofindividual function,driver fully engaged –Driver may be "feet off"(when using ACC) or"hands off" (when usingLane Keep Assist) Automation of multiplefunctions, driver fullyengaged – Driver maybe both "feet-off" and"hands off", but eyesmust stay on the roadAdvancedtesting phaseStage 3ConditionalAutomationAutomation of multiplefunctions, driverresponds to a requestto intervene – Driver maybe "feet-off", "hands off"and "eyes off", but mustbe able to resumecontrol quickly 2020Stage 4High AutomationAutomated in certainconditions, driver notexpected to monitor road– Driver has noresponsibility duringautomated mode 2025Stage 5Full AutomationSituation independentautomated driving– Driver has noresponsibility duringdriving 2030Increasing influence on future truck product and service conceptsSource: SAE, Roland Berger20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx13
DigitalizationThe evolution of digital technologies and culture will create new usecases, for example, in the context of advanced truck & trailerTruck telematics data and potential use cases (examples)Truck managementMileageDistance traveledEngine performanceTire pressureDriver managementUse cases: Predictive maintenance Remote diagnostics Engine and fuel consumptionimprovements real time Platooning Travel profileDriver behaviorEntertainmentUse cases: "Pay how you drive" Location-based services Warnings forinappropriate driving Logistics managementNavigationParkingLocationRoute planningFreight optimizationSource: Roland BergerOtherUse cases: Parking assistance (search,payment, etc.) Fleet management Last mile information tocustomer TollDriver assistanceTheft protectionMarketingUse cases: eCall Road assistance including augmented reality Vehicle tracking and theftprotection Remote truck steering "Take a lunch break –20% off" 20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx14
DigitalizationDigitalization will drive the creation of a completely new truck servicescenario in the futureFuture service scenarioREMOTE DIAGNOSTICSCOST/TCO EFFICIENCYDifferentiated offering via multibrandVehicle specialization & standardizationAugmented realityTELEMATICS SOLUTIONSProfessionalizationPredictionIntegrated solutions Same-day deliverySMARTMOBILITYOnline check-inAUTOMATEDTRUCKSmartLogisticsReal-time dataDIGITALIZATION ON-DEMAND SHAREDe-tracking serviceFleet managementCOMMUNITYSMARTDATASource: Roland BergerONE-STOP SHOPPINGAftersales cooperation MOBILITYLAST MILE CONCEPTApplicationsDynamic pricingService factoriesValue-based pricingSeamless customer journeyTransparency of playersDISRUPTION20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx15
The speed with which the four megatrends develop depends onrelated regulation – Overall, regulatory pressure is increasingOverview: Regulation and regulatory pressure – Example EuropeVehicle/technology-related regulationTransportation-related regulationTypeTypeReg. pressure RationaleReg. pressureRationaleEmission standardsFurther tightening of emissionstandards announced and expected(incl. CO2)Cabotage restrictionsEuropean Commission enforcingliberal cabotage rights – Expected topush for further liberalizationZero emission zonesZero/low emission zones plannedespecially for urban areas in key EUmarkets (e.g. GER, IT, NL, UK)Tolls & road chargesIncreasing pressure due to rising tolls(e.g. AT, CH) and introduction in newcountries (e.g. EST)Special regulations forelectric vehiclesBeneficial regulatory impact expectedfor xEV trucksDriving times andrest periodsStrict regulation by the EuropeanCommission in place – Enforcementto be intensified in future (e.g. FR, BE)Size & loadEasing of restrictions (e.g. Germany2017) – Further liberalizationexpectedMinimum wagesIncreasing pressure on logisticsproviders due to introduction ofminimum wages e.g. in GermanySafetyTightening of standards discussed byEU commission including mandatoryinstallation of certain ADASSelf-employment ofdriversStricter enforcement of existing regulation against quasi-self-employmentto combat pressure on wagesPlatooningAs a form of autonomous driving isexpected to be fostered by regulatoryframeworkCross-border orderplacement1)Autonomous drivingFavorable regulatory frameworkexpected to be introduced fosteringautonomous drivingStricter enforcement of existing regulation to combat pressure on wagesby drivers from Eastern EuropeancountriesExpected regulatory pressure:Very lowSource: Market expert interviews, Roland BergerVery high1) Trucking companies can disposition orders to foreign countries only via employing subsidiary and not local subsidiary20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx16
The regulatory push is considered the major driving force fortechnology upgrades within commercial vehicle systems globallyKey regulations by regionStatus(May 2018)EMEAEuropeRussia2016ABS/EBSEURO VIUnitedStatesABSEPA 10SouthAmericaBrazilABSbased on EURO VAPACIndiaABSEURO IVABSEURO VIChinaABSnationwide CHINA VEmission standard (toxic emissions and fuel efficiency)201720182019202020212022CO2 limitsAEBS & LDWSABSEURO VNorthAmericaJapanSelectionVRUDEURO VESCEPA 16EPA 17EPA 21ESCAEBSV2X light vehiclesESCBS VI (Euro VI)BS IVABSAEBS, ESCLDWSCHINA VABSElectronic systems (brake control and ADAS)EBS dangerous goods veh. 12tCHINA VIESC, FCW, LDWS, LKAS, AEBSExpected/in discussion1) Approved on 15.05.2018, government intends to stimulate energy efficiency and vehicle safety, details to be confirmedSource: Market research; Market expert interviews; Roland Berger20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx17
"LEAD" dimensions are expected to shape the truck and trailermarket until 2030Key trends and implications for the truck and trailer market – Example EuropeOEMRelevance over time (indicative)MegatrendsSub-trendsNewLogisticsShift towards large fleet customers2017202020252030Impact onvolumeSupplierImpact onprofitabilityImpact onvolumeImpact onprofitabilityEmergence of new players & business modelsSpecialization of logistics playersElectrification/ New vehicle architecturesalternativedrivesHigher component technology contentNeed for electronics competenceAutonomoustrucksEmergence of truck platooning1)Role of driver losing importanceIncreasing annual mileageDigitalizationEmergence of fleet mgmt. solutionsNew service providers enter value chainShorter innovation cyclesPositive influenceSource: Roland BergerNegative influenceNo/limited influence1) Depending on region, e.g. early adoption in US likely20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx18
B. Truck & trailer marketdevelopment (spotlighton Europe)20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx19
This study covers medium and heavy trucks, buses 8t and trailers– Global focus, with a regional spotlight on EuropeRegional and country scope of this studyTruck and bus productionEurope1)North AmericaAPAC2)China1) Including Russia/CIS and TurkeySource: Roland BergerTrailer productionSouth America2) Japan, Korea and India onlyWestern EuropeEastern Europe elandItaly enSwitzerlandUnited KingdomBelarusBulgariaCzech RepublicEstoniaHungaryLatviaLithuaniaPolandRomania RussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraineTurkey3)3) Considered for truck/bus production; excluded in trailer analysis20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx20
Roland Berger has conducted approximately 80 interviews withmarket experts to evaluate the truck & bus and trailer marketOverview of market expert interviews conducted [#]Interviewees truck & ),3)Interviewees trailer217EngineeringOES Sales/OEM PurchasingStrategy/Marketing/General Mgmt.1131OES Sales/OEM PurchasingStrategy/Marketing/General Mgmt.Source: Roland Berger13199 511) Other markets were also covered in interviews3216China1)ByexpertiseEurope1),2)16 322) Including Russia/CIS and Turkey3) China excluded20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx21
In Europe, besides the impact of megatrends, a set of region-specificdrivers will determine the development of the marketKey drivers for the truck and trailer market – Example rketdriversRelevanceDirectionof influenceDescriptionGDP development1)Short/mid-term GDP in Europe will drive global truck and trailer demand. Strongergrowth for Eastern European countries is forecast.Business climate changeShort-term indicator with high impact on volatility of truck/trailer business, currentlystable in Europe.Growth of construction sector to have positive impact on truck and trailer demand.Construction sectorDevelopment of transport tonnage kmLong-term factor of overall transport volume creates the increasing transportationdemand driving the truck/trailer industry, especially in the smaller European countries.Development of modal split:Road vs. other transportRoad transport vs. other modes of transport (e.g. rail, waterways) is expected to bestable overall.Fuel pricesFuel prices are expected to remain low in the medium term, helping freight forwarderssignificantly, which also positively impacts truck/trailer demand.Emission regulationsEmission regulations are expected to put more pressure on the truck industry – Highpredictability for OEMs from long-term emission standard cycles.Regulatory environment changesPositive impact expected on truck and trailer demand from implemented/proposedregulatory changes regarding driver assistance and less cabotage restrictions.PopulationPopulation is expected to increase slightly in most regions – Marginal positive impacton truck and trailer demand.OverallHigh relevanceFavorable trends overallLow relevancePositive influenceSource: Market research; interviews with market participants; Roland BergerNegative influence1) Including development of raw material prices, in particular in Brazil20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx22
Forecasts of major truck & trailer market drivers in Europe indicate afurther positive development over the upcoming yearsDevelopment of the key truck & trailer market driversReal GPD development [% .HistoricalPopulation [m ruction sector1) [EUR e2022e2024eRoad transport tonnage km [trillion 2,0.2,8%Rest of Western EuropeTotal2016.2,2-1,3%.Based on countries forwhich data was availableItalyEastern EuropeSource: Oxford Economics; IHS; Progtrans; Roland sed on countries forwhich data was available1) Gross output (real) general construction and specialized construction as well asrepair activities for buildings, civil engineering and infrastructure works20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx23
In the short and mid term, the truck and bus market is expected tobe mostly impacted in three dimensionsCleanMobilityEmission reduction by: Tightening of CO2 emissions standardsfor heavy-duty vehicles Enhanced aerodynamic efficiency Electrification (primarily metro areas)SafeMobilityReduction of road accidents by: New road safety policies Implementation of additional safetyfeatures (e.g. blind spot detection etc.)Connected andAutomated MobilityEnhanced safety and traffic flowthrough: V2V/V2X communication(CACC platooning) Increased assisted driving up toLevel 3 (enhanced ADAS systems) Clean and safe mobility lead to higher demand for vehicles with advanced safety features and better fuel economy/lessemissions, achieved through– ADAS (Level 0-2), such as advanced emergency braking, lane-keeping assist and cyclist detection systems for trucks– Technology upgrades of CV systems, such as automatic manual transmission and engine emissions systems Those trends are expected to take effect within short and mid-term implementation (until 2022) Autonomous driving, fully automated platooning, etc. are expected to materialize long term (after 2023)Source: Market research; Roland Berger20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx24
Production of medium/heavy duty trucks and buses is on the riseglobally – For Europe, approx. 1% annual increase expectedAnnual truck and bus production1) [k units] by region and CAGR, 18E-22EEurope ope2)1,162 0.2%499558564 6.4%2016 2018E 2022ENorthAmerica812016 2018E 2022E1041332016 2018E 2022E2016 2018E 2022EChina 2.4% 5.5%79126358358 0.7%3942581562016 2018E 2022ESouthAmerica1) For medium/heavy duty trucks and buses 8 tSource: IHS; Roland Berger1,360 1,2902016 2018E 2022E2702016 2018E 2022EIndia2) Including Russia/CIS and Turkey262Japan &Koreax% Compound annual growth rate 2018-202220180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx25
BACKUPGlobal medium / heavy truck and bus production with strong CAGR'16-'18E (7.5%) and almost no growth '18E-'22E (CAGR 0.3%)Truck and bus production1) 2016-18E-22E ['000] and delta analysis ['000]CAGR'16-'18E '18E-'22E '16-'22E 39 427 7.5% 0.3% 2.6% 6.9% 1.3% 3.1%2,761580 13.7% 0.0% 4.4% 26.1% 5.5% 12.0%32579 1.3%616 0.4% )95447198 8.2% (-1.3%) 1.8%1,1621,3601,290393503044-6920161) for medium/heavy duty trucks and buses 8 tSource: Market expert interviews; Roland Berger2018E2) Including Russia/CIS and Turkey2022E’16-’18EEurope2)NASA3) China excluded. APAC defined as Japan, Korea and India’18E-’22EAPAC3)China20180808 Trends in Truck Trailer fv.pptx26
BACKUPTrucks account for 84% of global truck and bus production onaverage (2016-22E)Truck and bus production1) by region, 2016-22E'000 (Truck and bus production separated with dashed A20172018E1) for medium/heavy duty trucks and buses 8 tSource: Market expert interviews; Roland Berger2019E2020E2) Including Russia/CIS and Turkey2021E2022EShare of global truck andbus production Truck and bus production inChina accounts for 42% ofglobal production onaverage (2016-22E) Europe accounts for 21%,APAC for 20% and NorthAmerica for 13% of globalproduction on average(2016-22E)Share of bus production inregion
the truck & trailer market over the coming years E.g., on average, Europe's production of medium/heavy duty trucks and buses 8 t is expected to grow by 1.3% p.a. until 2020. The main growth driver will be Eastern European countries European Trailer production continuously grew by 5% p.a. unt
