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H O W T O B U I L D A N I N N O VAT I O N R O A D M A P F O REMERGING TECHNOLOGIES EXPERIENCE FROM THE GRAPHENE ROADMAPInnovation WorkshopExploitation of Neuromorphic Computing TechnologiesB r u s s e l s , F e b r u a r y 3 rd, 2 0 1Thomas Reissthomas.reiss@isi.fraunhofer.deFraunhofer Institute forSystems and Innovation Research ISIKarlsruhe, Germanywww isi fraunhofer de/isi en/www.isi.fraunhofer.de/isi-en/ Fraunhofer ISI

P o i n t o f d e p a r t u re : E x i s t i n g S c i e n c e a n dT chnology RoadmapTe Science based, technology push Fraunhofer ISISeite 2perspectiveTakes into account scientificdevelopments and feasibilityDoes not take into accountdemand and economical feasiblity

Te c h n o l o g y a n d I n n o v a t i o n R o a d m a p – W h y ? The Technology & Innovation Roadmap (TIR) should consider industrial demand meeting technology supply economici aspectst andd EEuropean addeddd d value/industriall /i d t i l basisb i non-technological frame conditions Target groups and purpose: Guide flagshipg p research towards market demands Shape the next phases of the flagship Inform industry to allow uptake of flagship research results Support cross-WP collaboration Fraunhofer ISISeite 3

Graphene/2D MaterialsScience & TechnologyMarkets/SectorsThe approach in andApplicationAreasFormulationEnergy Starting pointScienceMaterial Fraunhofer ISISeite InnovationSystem/Producty

Te c h n o l o g y a n d I n n o v a t i o n R o a d m a p – H o w ?4 stepsIdentify application areas and potentialExisting STR, Literature, News, Interviews with WP leaders, MonitoringIdentify market and needCompany interviews, market studiesAssess matchingCompany interviews, WorkshopsRoadmapWorkshops, desk research, flagship documents, ex. STR Fraunhofer ISISeite 5

T h e M o n i t o r i n g To o lAssessing state of the art and competitionCountries/RegionsComparative benchmark analysis: Science (bibliometry, publications) Technologygy and innovation (patents)(p)ActorsComparativedimensionsState of the art: IndustrialSectorsRelative sizes and performancesTechnology field dynamicsCo-publications and cooperation analysesyCo-analyseswith market activitiesWorkPackagesSemantic/content-wise analysesScientific focus of publications, involved disciplines, etc. Fraunhofer ISISeite 6 Annual updates TechnologyFields

Wo r k s h o p s :S t r u c t u re d i n t o t h re e s e s s i o n s :1. SWOT analysis2. Portfolio analysis: marketk t attractivenesstt ti technological attractiveness for different graphene applications3 Roadmapping section3. current technology readiness levels timingg and developmentppathpof GRM for use in applicationppareas andrelated markets important challenges and barriers (red brick walls). Fraunhofer ISISeite 7

SWOT for use of emerging technologies inspecific applicationInternal factors directly controllable by emerging technology development itself: existing and potential technological (dis(dis-)advantages)advantages (enabling factor,)factor ) non-technological (dis-)advantages production/process/implementation (dis-)advantages knowledge base and maturityStrengthsWeaknessesDisadvantage relative toothers.Advantages over others.OpportunitiesExternal supportive aspectsThreatsExternal hindrances/issuesthat could cause trouble forusing graphene/2DExternal factors not directly controllable by emerging technology development itself: markets/trends requirements/demandsit /dd off andd forf applications,li ti strengths/weaknesses of state of the art and competing technologies (EU) supply/value chains (EU)( ) innovation ecosystemy frame conditions Fraunhofer ISISeite 8

SWOT analysis – some aspects to considerTechnology:Performance TodayPerformance potentialUniqueness:q“USP”Complexity: Ease of useProduction:Scalability TodayScalability PotentialIntegratabilitygy TodayyIntegratability PotentialCost for productionMarket:Justified cost/function gainMarket volumeMarket competitiveness Fraunhofer ISISeite 9Applications:Cost reduction todayCost reduction potentialDiversityyProduct valueTiming:Time to market assessment

Assess matching: Portfolio analysis Portfolio kthrough“„Killer application“X Application areas1 43257Ni h„Nicheincremental“68„Drop-in“„market attractiveness/EU perspective“ Fraunhofer ISISeite 10

RoadmappingKey questions (1)1. Application with technology demonstrators TRL 3 (CRS 2)12. KPIs: What are key targets? Lead KPIs, lead parameters that are crucial? Numbers?3. RL today (range) Start with coarse scale, what are we exactlyy talkingg about (e.g.g in terms of market,product) Optional: Narrow down to TRL, MRL for applications/products mentioned by theparticipants In case there is already something on the market: What is the quality, is it real?4. Barriers/challenges RBW: What are key barriers/challenges? Where shall one invest to solve problems?What is the critical path? How can a road look like? Implications for research activites? Fraunhofer ISISeite 11

RoadmappingKey questions (2)5 Time related aspects:5. Window of opportunity? (Market-side time related aspects) Hierarchy of activities and actions that are executed to meet those targets Time dimension for those activities When can the target be reached? When is next stepp reached (on coarse scale) Probability? Compare to other elements (what comes first?) Concrete product examples Early adopter? When? What comes later? When are which markets addressable? Are there multiple ‘paths’ or ‘routes’ to reaching that target? Is there a product or application area that can be served “along the way” (e.g. Li-Sbatteries is the main goal, but along the way (or when those work), also standardLiB can beb enhanced hd Fraunhofer ISISeite 12

Roadmap – example from Graphene Flagship:Photonic network componentsMarketside/competingid /tiroadmapsKPIs from DoATRL assessmentParticular challenges orremarksGraphene/2D-based applications Fraunhofer ISISeite 13

ConclusionsOne possible point of view QQualitative assessment as gguideline,, based on insightsg Two possible measures for prioritization European perspective (EU companies/Industriesenabled by this GRM development, macroeconomicperspective, strong integrators outside Europe,dominating industry) actual proven and foreseeable technologicalperformance of emerging technology uniquenessianddddelineationliti fromfemergingicompeting technologies or SotAApplication sub topicsSub topic 1Sub topic 2Sub topic 3 Fraunhofer ISISeite 14 overall market potential and market need forsolutions offered by GRM NegativeNti assessmentt can pointi t towardstd globall b l valuelchains, where most added value will be potentiallygenerated outside of EuropeCurrenttechnologicalpotential (USP)- - (rather poor))0 (not promising) (very promising)Market potential(EU perspective)- (not good) (promising)? (undecided, notassessable,stillopen question)

I n n o v a t i o n ro a d m a p p i n g f o r e m e r g i n gtechnologies: success factors (1) Backing and commitment of project coordination and funding agencies(scientists might have other priorities than engaging in innovation androadmapping) Use Roadmap as one information source affecting further funding andclearly communicate this role Set up interdisciplinary roadmapping team combining science,engineering, economic and societal perspectives AND methodologicalexperiencep Interact intensively with scientific work and researchers, feedbackinformation thereby creating commitment Use approachh thath isi as transparent as possibleibl to create broadb d acceptancein the project (e.g. through feedback loop and offers for involvement) Fraunhofer ISISeite 15

I n n o v a t i o n ro a d m a p p i n g f o r e m e r g i n gtechnologies: success factors (2) Expose researchers to industry expectations, challenge scientific excellencewith needs and demand of industry and users: workshops Implement application driven way of thinking (market pull) Include market research Take into account Europeanpperspective,p p, i.e. Industrial basis andbeneficiaries of developments to enable European added value Take ecosystem perspective: there is no standalone, single actor mode ofinnovation Be hard in methodologies Develop and include an external perspective via STI monitoring Fraunhofer ISISeite 16

Graphene Flagship TIR:leasons learned Industry engagement is crucial even at early stage or low TRL Don’t ask industry for interest in emerging technology, ratherask for needs, functions, cost, performance. Design and include roadmap into research planning at earliestpossibleibl stage Focus on purpose of roadmap: Start with internal management and planning tool Expand for dissemination Don‘t do this in parallel Fraunhofer ISISeite 17

G r a p h e n e F l a g s h i p T I R : T h e c u r re n t v e r s i o n4 main topics with 18 subtopics and 84 application areas covering nearly all industrialsectorsExistingst g roadmaps,oad aps, marketa et reports,epo ts, ststrategicateg c docudocuments,e ts,databases (market data, patents, publications, news)2 Workshops with 82 participants Fraunhofer ISISeite 18

S t r u c t u re o f ro a d m a p p i n g d o c u m e n tFor each topicp1. Introduction Delineation of topicgraphene/2Dpmaterials Role of g2. Market perspective (opportunities and threats) Market overview Opportunities and threats3. Graphene/2D materials perspective Current strengths and weaknesses4. KPIs5 Roadmap5. Current maturity Barriers/Challenges Potential actions Roadmap6. Conclusion - Current technological potential (USP) and Market potential (EU perspective) Fraunhofer ISISeite 19

G r a p h e n e F l a g s h i p T I R : T h e c u r re n t v e r s i o n4 main topics with 18 subtopics and 84 application areas covering nearly all industrialsectorsExistingst g roadmaps,oad aps, marketa et reports,epo ts, ststrategicateg c docudocuments,e ts,databases (market data, patents, publications, news)2 Workshops with 82 participants Fraunhofer ISISeite 20

Innovation roadmapping for emerging techli f (1)hnologies: success factors (1) Backing and commitment of project coordination and funding agencies (scientists might have other priorities than engaging in innovation and roadmapping) Use Roadmap as one information source affecting further funding and clearly communicate this role