WIXLIB

138environmental science & policy 15 (2012) 136–144Technologies, practices,partnerships and policies for:Improved foodsecurity viafarming livelihoods1. Adaptation to progressiveclimate change2. Adaptation through managingclimate risk3. Mitigating agriculturalgreenhouse gas emissionsMitigation ofenvironmental impactsFarming systems that areadapted to long-term trends inclimate change and increasedclimate variabilityFig. 1 – Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change and pathways to impact.(Godfray et al., 2010). Investment in crop improvement toaddress specific characteristics of a progressively changingclimate (e.g. heat, drought, water logging, pest resistance) istherefore an important component of any global effort toadapt farming systems. Research from India, for example,shows that targeting investment effectively requires understanding exactly where different abiotic stresses dominateand matching crops to future climates in a way that accountsfor uncertainties (Challinor et al., 2009). Crop breeding forfuture climates has greater chance of success if conductedwith farmers, taking account of their ability and willingness toadopt new risks or input-intensive methods.from one site to the next will be crucial, though highlycontingent on effective learning processes, local institutions,and farmers’ perceptions of the value of participation. Manypromising practices are grounded in local knowledge. Forexample, mid-season drainage in rice paddies, which reducesmethane emissions but is also an adaptation strategy forwater use efficiency, derives from traditional practice in Chinaand Japan (Wassmann et al., 2009). The diversity of traits andcharacteristics among existing varieties of agricultural biodiversity (both inter- and intra-specific) provide enormouspotential for adaptation to progressive climate change (Laneand Jarvis, 2007).2.2.2.3.Better agricultural practicesToday’s farming systems are adapted to current climateconditions, yet we know little about how well they will standup to progressive climate change, particularly as they comeunder increasing pressure from other global drivers andentirely novel climates are encountered in many places(Williams et al., 2007). Many broad-scale analyses identifyregions and crops that will be sensitive to progressive climatechange (Parry et al., 2007; Jarvis et al., 2008; Lobell et al., 2008),but there is sparse scientific knowledge as to how currentfarming systems can adapt, and which current farmingsystems and agricultural practices will enable adaptation.As climates effectively migrate, the transfer of best practicesEnabling policies in food systemsSignificant opportunities exist for national and sub-nationalpolicies that help enable adaptation at the community andhousehold level. For example, policies that improve accessand rights to water through investments in storage facilitiesor community-managed irrigation systems could aid ruralcommunities in overcoming short- or long-term periods ofdrought (IWMI, 2009). The development of communal plansand strategies, such as the pooling of financial resources orfood storage facilities, may also prove invaluable. At thenational level, concrete policy options include subsidies andincentives for crop substitution or expensive farming inputs(e.g. agrochemicals, bovine vaccines), as well as investment

environmental science & policy 15 (2012) 136–144plans for improved infrastructure for food systems (e.g.transport). Public and private sectors and civil societyorganizations must work together to ensure that adaptationplans and strategies are coordinated through food systems.For example, since climate change will likely lead to extremeseasonal or annual production shocks, and countries havehistorically responded by restricting trade or pursuing largepurchases in international markets (e.g. Chinese rice in 2008,Russian wheat in 2010), global strategies may be necessary toaddress agricultural price volatility (Battisti and Naylor,2009) and to manage impacts such as large-scale landacquisition for food production for foreign markets (Vermeulen and Cotula, 2010). Under uncertain and highlydynamic changes in food systems, there is a considerablerisk of conflicting policies and investments contributing tomaladaptation.2.4.Bringing understanding to the regional scaleStudies of adaptation to progressive climate change yielddifferent results depending on the crop and region studied.Even within a single country, crop varietal requirements underclimate change can vary significantly. This makes regionalstudies such as those of the IPCC assessments an importantpart of interpreting models and statistical studies. However, inspite of this regional variation, there are common messages:the importance of extremes of temperature in sub-SaharanAfrica (Lobell et al., 2011), Europe (Semenov and Shewry, 2011)and north-east China (Challinor et al., 2010), and theimportance of changes in the length of the growing periodacross large geographical regions (e.g. Africa, Thornton et al.,2010; India, Challinor and Wheeler, 2008). Downscaling ofclimatic models and impact assessment to the regional leveland decadal timescales is now among the key challenges forresearch.3.Managing climate variability and riskClimate change will be experienced largely as shifts in thefrequency and magnitude of extreme events. Since many ofthe projected impacts of climate change are amplifications ofthe substantial challenges that climate variability alreadyimposes on agriculture, particularly for smallholder, rainfedfarming systems in tropical and sub-tropical drylands, bettermanaging the risks associated with climate variabilityprovides an immediate opportunity to adapt to future climatechange. Climate shocks such as drought, flooding or heatwaves lead not only to loss of life, but also long-term loss oflivelihood through loss of productive assets, impaired healthand destroyed infrastructure (Dercon, 2004; Carter et al., 2007).The uncertainty imposed by climate variability is a disincentive to investment in improved agricultural technology andmarket opportunities, prompting the risk-averse farmer tofavor precautionary strategies that buffer against climaticextremes over activities that are more profitable on average(Hansen et al., 2011). Apart from effective intervention,projected increases in climate variability can be expected tointensify the cycle of poverty, vulnerability and dependenceon external assistance. A comprehensive strategy for adapting139agriculture and food systems to a changing climate musttherefore exploit the full range of promising strategies formanaging current climate-related risk.3.1.Seasonal forecasts for adaptive managementInteraction between the atmosphere and the oceans providesthe basis for forecasting climate conditions several months inadvance. Seasonal climate forecasts, in principle, provide theopportunity for farmers to choose whether adopt newtechnologies and intensify production, or to opt for lowerrisk, lower return strategies. Research with smallholderfarmers in low-income countries reveals a high level ofinterest and a range of promising management responses, butalso highlights widespread communication failure (Hansenet al., 2011). Furthermore, there is a mismatch betweenfarmers’ needs and the scale, content, format, or accuracy ofavailable information products and services. These factorshave limited the widespread use of seasonal forecasts amongsmallholder farmers. Adoption rates and reported benefitshave been moderately high in pilot projects in Zimbabwe andBurkina Faso that have overcome some of the communicationbarriers (Patt et al., 2005; Roncoli et al., 2009).3.2.Index insuranceIndex insurance is an innovation that triggers payouts basedon a meteorological index correlated with agricultural losses(e.g. rainfall or modeled water stress), rather than actualobserved losses. Basing payouts on an objectively measuredindex overcomes problems with moral hazard, adverseselection and the high cost of verifying losses (Hess andSyroka, 2005). Index insurance avoids the problems that maketraditional crop insurance unviable for smallholder farmers,and has proven to be successful for example in India andMexico (IFAD, 2010). Recent reviews of index insuranceinitiatives in low-income countries emphasize the need todevelop a framework for targeting particular index insuranceproducts to particular agricultural systems, build capacity inthe private sector, bundle insurance within broader suites ofservices, and develop better indices, particularly wheremeteorological data are sparse (Hellmuth et al., 2009; Hazellet al., 2010).3.3.Managing climate-related risk through the foodsystemThe actions that governments and aid organizations take inresponse to climate shocks can have major impacts onfarmers and local agricultural markets. Climate-driven pricefluctuations can lead to acute food insecurity for the relativelypoor who spend most of their incomes on food. Using climatebased forecasts of food production to better manage trade andstabilize prices offers considerable potential benefits to bothagricultural producers and consumers (Arndt and Bacou, 2000;Hallstrom, 2004). Experience in sub-Saharan Africa shows thatassistance, particularly food aid, in response to a majorfood crisis can have complex impacts on farmers and onagricultural markets (Barrett, 2002; Abdulai et al., 2004).Assistance can protect productive assets, foster investment

140environmental science & policy 15 (2012) 136–144and intensification through its insurance effect, and stimulateagricultural value chain development, but can also contributeto price fluctuations, disincentives to agricultural productionand market development, and a cycle of dependency in poorlytargeted and managed farming communities. Analysis of thetiming and effectiveness of crisis relief in Africa shows thatuse of consumption and health indicators can improvetargeting, but may delay relief sufficiently to increase thelong-term livelihood impacts of the crisis (Haile, 2005).Improving the lead-time and accuracy of early-warninginformation provides an opportunity to support more timelyinterventions.3.4.Climate information servicesSeveral of the promising opportunities to manage agriculturalrisk depend on climate information and these are yet to befully exploited, in part because of gaps in existing climatei

ofLeeds, Institute for Climate andAtmospheric Science, School Earth Environment 1SZ 9JT, UK h International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, Lamont Campus, 61 Route 9 W, Monell Building, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USA i University of Oxford, Environmental Change Unit, South Parks Road, Oxford .Cited by: 385Publish Year: 2012Author: Sonja J. Vermeulen, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Pramod K. Aggarwal, A. Ainslie