Currency Trading

Transcription

Business/Investingg Easier!Making Everythin 2nd Edition2nd EditionForex markets can be one of the fastest and most volatilefinancial markets to trade. Money can be lost or made in amatter of seconds, and forex markets are always moving. Sohow do you keep up? This hands-on, friendly guide showsyou how the forex market really works, what moves it, andhow you can actively trade in it — without losing your head! All the world’s a stage — get an easy-to-follow introduction to theglobal forex market and understand its size, scope, and players Show me the money — take a look at the major fundamental andeconomic drivers that influence currency values and get the knowhow to interpret data and events like a pro Prepare for battle — discover different types of trading styles andmake a concrete strategy and game plan before you act on anything Pull the trigger — establish a position in the market, manage thetrade while it’s open, and close out on the most advantageous termsOpen the book and find: Currency trading conventionsand tools Key characteristics ofsuccessful traders Trading pitfalls to avoid and riskmanagement rules to live by How major currenciestypically trade Why it’s important to be organizedand prepared The 411 on buying and sellingsimultaneously Tips for understanding rolloversand interest ratesCurrency TradingYour plain-Englishguide to currency tradinggnidarTycnerruCLearn to: Grasp currency quotesGo to Dummies.com for videos, step-by-step examples,how-to articles, or to shop! Capitalize on the foreignexchange market Manage risk and reward Use the forces that drivecurrency movements 24.99 US / 29.99 CN / 16.99 UKBrian Dolan has worked for more than 20 years in the forex market as acurrency trader and analyst. As the Chief Currency Strategist at FOREX.com,Brian oversees fundamental and technical analysis and is a frequent resourcefor the financial media on currency developments. Identify key traits ofindividual currency pairsISBN 978-1-118-01851-4Brian DolanDolanFOREX.com

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CurrencyTradingFORDUMmIES‰2NDEDITION

CurrencyTradingFORDUMmIES‰2NDby Brian DolanEDITION

Currency Trading For Dummies, 2nd EditionPublished byWiley Publishing, Inc.111 River St.Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774www.wiley.comCopyright 2011 by Wiley Publishing, Inc., Indianapolis, IndianaPublished by Wiley Publishing, Inc., Indianapolis, IndianaPublished simultaneously in CanadaNo part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form orby any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior writtenpermission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to theCopyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600.Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley& Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.Trademarks: Wiley, the Wiley Publishing logo, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, A Reference for theRest of Us!, The Dummies Way, Dummies Daily, The Fun and Easy Way, Dummies.com, Making EverythingEasier, and related trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and/or its affiliates in the United States and other countries, and may not be used without written permission.All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Wiley Publishing, Inc., is not associatedwith any product or vendor mentioned in this book.LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NOREPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OFTHE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. NO WARRANTY MAY BECREATED OR EXTENDED BY SALES OR PROMOTIONAL MATERIALS. THE ADVICE AND STRATEGIESCONTAINED HEREIN MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERY SITUATION. THIS WORK IS SOLD WITH THEUNDERSTANDING THAT THE PUBLISHER IS NOT ENGAGED IN RENDERING LEGAL, ACCOUNTING, OROTHER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES. IF PROFESSIONAL ASSISTANCE IS REQUIRED, THE SERVICES OFA COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL PERSON SHOULD BE SOUGHT. NEITHER THE PUBLISHER NOR THEAUTHOR SHALL BE LIABLE FOR DAMAGES ARISING HEREFROM. THE FACT THAT AN ORGANIZATION OR WEBSITE IS REFERRED TO IN THIS WORK AS A CITATION AND/OR A POTENTIAL SOURCEOF FURTHER INFORMATION DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE AUTHOR OR THE PUBLISHER ENDORSESTHE INFORMATION THE ORGANIZATION OR WEBSITE MAY PROVIDE OR RECOMMENDATIONS ITMAY MAKE. FURTHER, READERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT INTERNET WEBSITES LISTED IN THISWORK MAY HAVE CHANGED OR DISAPPEARED BETWEEN WHEN THIS WORK WAS WRITTEN ANDWHEN IT IS READ.For general information on our other products and services, please contact our Customer CareDepartment within the U.S. at 877-762-2974, outside the U.S. at 317-572-3993, or fax 317-572-4002.For technical support, please visit www.wiley.com/techsupport.Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print maynot be available in electronic books.Library of Congress Control Number: 2011930128ISBN: 978-1-118-01851-4Manufactured in the United States of America10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

About the AuthorBrian Dolan is the chief currency strategist at GAIN Capital Group, anda 20-plus year veteran of the interbank currency market. Brian providesresearch and market analysis to trading clients of GAIN Capital and FOREX.com, the retail division of GAIN Capital Group.Brian analyzes the G10 currency markets with a blend of fundamental andtechnical analysis to provide actionable trading strategies.A frequent commentator on currency-market developments and outlooks formajor news media including the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, DowJones, CNN Money, and MarketWatch.com, Brian has also appeared regularlyas a currency analyst on financial TV networks CNBC, Bloomberg Television,Fox Business News and BNN in Canada.In addition, he has written numerous articles on currency trading, risk management, and technical analysis for trading and investment journals such asCurrency Trader, Active Trader, SFO Magazine, Technical Analysis of Stocks &Commodities, and Futures.Prior to joining GAIN Capital, Brian was a vice president at Bank Julius Bär,where he advised hedge funds and high-net-worth individuals on currencies. He spent the first 12 years of his FX career trading major currency pairsin the interbank market in New York at some of the world’s largest banks,including Credit Suisse, Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank, and American Express Bank,as well as two years in Bermuda as a proprietary trader at Butterfield Bank.Brian is a graduate of Dartmouth College.

DedicationTo Brigid, for her love and for hanging in there through the ups and downs;and to Frank and Catherine, for inspiring me to create a work for the future,just as you are. In memoriam to my mother Peg, father Chuck, and sadlymissed brother Tim, who taught me that life is not a dress rehearsal.AcknowledgmentsMy efforts to translate a career’s worth of currency trading experience intoa book would be extremely thin were it not for the many lessons I garneredfrom colleagues in the market over the years. Readers of this book will benefit from the experience I’ve gained from many of you. Thanks to Mark Galant,for founding GAIN Capital and offering me the opportunity to write this book.To the trading team at GAIN: Tim O’Sullivan, Anthony Piccolo, Paul Spirgel,Rob Voorhees, Mike Goret, Damon Gallo, and Alan Viola — it’s an honor andpleasure to work with some of the best in the business. To Glenn Stevens andSamantha Roady, for setting the whole process in motion and encouragingme to go the full distance. To Christa Conte and Henry Feintuch of FeintuchCommunications, for getting the word out to the media and then some. Tomy research team for picking up the slack while I wrote: Eric Viloria, CMT;Chris Tevere, CMT; Kathleen Brooks; and Dan Hwang. To Susan Hobbs for herfine editing assistance that made me get to the point, clearly. To McLean D.Giles for his technical review. And to the editors and staff at Wiley Publishing,especially Stacy Kennedy, for organizing the book in the first place.

Publisher’s AcknowledgmentsWe’re proud of this book; please send us your comments at http://dummies.custhelp.com.For other comments, please contact our Customer Care Department within the U.S. at877-762-2974, outside the U.S. at 317-572-3993, or fax 317-572-4002.Some of the people who helped bring this book to market include the following:Acquisitions, Editorial, andMedia DevelopmentComposition ServicesProject Coordinator: Patrick RedmondProject Editor: Susan HobbsLayout and Graphics: Corrie SocolovitchAcquisitions Editor: Stacy KennedyProofreaders: Cara L. Buitron, Melissa CossellCopy Editor: Susan HobbsIndexer: Steve RathAssistant Editor: Erin Calligan MooneyEditorial Program Coordinator: Joe NiesenTechnical Editor: McLean D. GilesEditorial Manager: Jennifer EhrlichEditorial Supervisor and Reprint Editor:Carmen KrikorianEditorial Assistants: David Lutton,Jennette ElNaggarArt Coordinator: Alicia B. SouthCartoons: Rich Tennant(www.the5thwave.com)Publishing and Editorial for Consumer DummiesDiane Graves Steele, Vice President and Publisher, Consumer DummiesKristin Ferguson-Wagstaffe, Product Development Director, Consumer DummiesEnsley Eikenburg, Associate Publisher, TravelKelly Regan, Editorial Director, TravelPublishing for Technology DummiesAndy Cummings, Vice President and Publisher, Dummies Technology/General UserComposition ServicesDebbie Stailey, Director of Composition Services

Contents at a GlanceIntroduction . 1Part I: Trading the World’s Largest Financial Market. 7Chapter 1: Currency Trading 101. 9Chapter 2: What Is the Forex Market? . 19Chapter 3: Who Trades Currencies? Meet the Players . 35Chapter 4: The Mechanics of Currency Trading . 49Part II: Driving Forces behind Currencies . 75Chapter 5: Looking at the Big Picture . 77Chapter 6: Understanding and Applying Market News and Information . 101Chapter 7: Getting Down and Dirty with Fundamental Data . 117Chapter 8: Getting to Know the Major Currency Pairs . 141Chapter 9: Minor Currency Pairs and Cross-Currency Trading. 165Part III: Developing a Trading Plan . 181Chapter 10: Training and Preparing for Battle . 183Chapter 11: Cutting the Fog with Technical Analysis . 201Chapter 12: Identifying Trade Opportunities . 231Chapter 13: Risk-Management Considerations . 251Part IV: Executing a Plan . 269Chapter 14: Pulling the Trigger . 271Chapter 15: Managing the Trade. 285Chapter 16: Closing the Position and Evaluating Your Results . 297Part V: The Part of Tens . 307Chapter 17: Ten Habits of Successful Currency Traders . 309Chapter 18: Ten Beginner Trading Mistakes . 315Chapter 19: Ten Rules of Risk Management . 319Chapter 20: Ten Great Resources . 323Index . 327

Table of ContentsIntroduction . 1About This Book . 2Conventions Used in This Book . 2What You’re Not to Read . 3Foolish Assumptions . 3How This Book is Organized . 4Part I: Trading the World’s Largest Financial Market . 4Part II: Driving Forces behind Currencies. 5Part III: Developing a Trading Plan . 5Part IV: Executing a Plan . 5Part V: The Part of Tens . 5Icons Used in This Book . 6Where to Go from Here . 6Part I: Trading the World’s Largest Financial Market . 7Chapter 1: Currency Trading 101 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Defining Currency Trading . 9Speculating as an enterprise . 10Currencies as the trading vehicle . 11Information Affects Currency Rates . 12Fundamentals drive the currency market . 12Unless the technicals are driving the currency market . 13Or it may be something completely different . 14Developing a Trading Plan . 14Finding your trading style. 14Planning the trade. 15Executing the Trading Plan from Start to Finish . 16Chapter 2: What Is the Forex Market? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19Getting Inside the Numbers . 20Trading for spot . 20Speculating in the currency market . 21Getting liquid without getting soaked . 22Around the World in a Trading Day . 22The opening of the trading week . 23Trading in the Asia-Pacific session . 24Trading in the European/London session . 25Trading in the North American session . 25Key daily times and events . 27The U.S. dollar index . 28

xiiCurrency Trading For Dummies, 2nd EditionCurrencies and Other Financial Markets . 28Risk on or risk off? . 29Gold . 30Oil . 30Stocks . 31Bonds. 32Getting Started with a Practice Account . 32Chapter 3: Who Trades Currencies? Meet the Players . . . . . . . . . . . . .35The Interbank Market Is “The Market” . 35Getting inside the interbank market. 36Bank to bank and beyond . 37Hedgers and Financial Investors . 38Hedging your bets . 39Global investment flows . 41Speculators . 42Hedge funds . 43Day traders, big and small . 44Governments and Central Banks . 45Currency reserve management . 45The Bank for International Settlements . 47The G-7 and the G-20 . 47Chapter 4: The Mechanics of Currency Trading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49Buying and Selling Simultaneously. 49Currencies come in pairs . 50The long and the short of it . 54Profit and Loss . 55Leverage amplifies risk and reward. 55Margin balances and liquidations. 56Unrealized and realized profit and loss . 56Calculating profit and loss with pips . 57Factoring profit and loss into margin calculations. 58Understanding Rollovers and Interest Rates . 59Currency is money, after all . 59Value dates and trade settlement . 60Market holidays and value dates . 61Applying rollovers . 62Understanding Currency Prices . 63Bids and offers . 64Spreads. 64Executing a Trade . 65Trading online . 65Orders . 67

Table of ContentsPart II: Driving Forces behind Currencies . 75Chapter 5: Looking at the Big Picture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77Currencies and Interest Rates. 78The future is now: Interest rate expectations . 79Relative interest rates . 79Monetary Policy 101 . 81Looking at benchmark interest rates . 81Easy money, tight money . 82Unconventional easing . 83Watching the central bankers . 84Interpreting monetary policy communications . 86Official Currency Policies and Rhetoric. 87Currency policy or currency stance? . 88Calling the shots on currencies . 89Currency market intervention. 91Financial stability . 94Debts, deficits, and growth . 94Gauging credit risk. 95Geopolitical Risks and Events . 96Gauging risk sentiment . 98Risk on or risk off? . 98Chapter 6: Understanding and ApplyingMarket News and Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101Sourcing Market Information . 102The art of boarding a moving train. 102Taking the pulse of the market . 103Rumors: Where there’s smoke, there’s fire . 105Putting Market Information into Perspective: Focusing on Themes . 105Driving fundamental themes . 106Analyzing technical themes . 110Reality Check: Expectations versus Actual . 111The role of consensus expectations . 112Pricing in and pricing out forecasts . 113When good expectations go bad. 114Anticipating alternative outcome scenarios . 114Chapter 7: Getting Down and Dirty with Fundamental Data . . . . . . .117Finding the Data . 118Economics 101 for Currency Traders: MakingSense of Economic Data . 119The labor market . 119The consumer . 120The business sector . 121The structural. 121xiii

xivCurrency Trading For Dummies, 2nd EditionAssessing Economic Data Reports from a Trading Perspective . 122Understanding and revising data history . 122Getting to the core . 123Market-Moving Economic Data Reports from the United States . 124Labor-market reports . 124Consumer-level data reports . 127Business-level data reports . 130Structural data reports . 132Major International Data Reports . 135Eurozone . 135Japan. 136United Kingdom . 137Canada . 137Australia . 138New Zealand . 138China. 138Chapter 8: Getting to Know the Major Currency Pairs . . . . . . . . . . . .141The Big Dollar: EUR/USD. 142Trading fundamentals of EUR/USD . 142Trading behavior of EUR/USD . 145Tactical trading considerations in EUR/USD . 147East Meets West: USD/JPY. 149Trading fundamentals of USD/JPY . 149Price action behavior of USD/JPY . 152Tactical trading considerations in USD/JPY. 154The Other Majors: Sterling and Swissy . 156The British pound: GBP/USD . 156Safe haven or panic button: USD/CHF . 158Price action behavior in GBP/USD and USD/CHF. 160Tactical trading considerations in GBP/USD and USD/CHF . 162Chapter 9: Minor Currency Pairs and Cross-Currency Trading . . . . .165Trading the Minor Pairs . 165Trading fundamentals of USD/CAD. 166Trading fundamentals of AUD/USD . 169Trading fundamentals of NZD/USD . 170Tactical trading considerations in USD/CAD,AUD/USD, and NZD/USD . 172Trading the Scandies: SEK, NOK, and DKK . 175Swedish krona — “Stocky” . 175Norwegian krone — “Nokkie” . 175Danish krone — “Copey” . 176Cross-Currency Pairs . 176Why trade the crosses? . 177Stretching the legs . 178Trading the JPY crosses . 179Trading the EUR crosses. 180

Table of ContentsPart III: Developing a Trading Plan. 181Chapter 10: Training an

FOREX.com Learn to: † Grasp currency quotes † Capitalize on the foreign exchange market † Manage risk and reward † Use the forces that drive currency movements † Identify key traits of individual currency pairs g! n Open the book and find: † Currency trading conventi