Transcription
Due diligence checklist: how to identify thedominant elements to pre-qualify your sitefor its solar potentialNic van der WesthuizenProject ManagerTritec EnergySouth Africa 27 82 8833 683nic@tritec-energy.co.za
CONTENTS1. Dominating elements for solar qualification2. Business case - Residential / smallcommercial– 1 phase vs 3 phase – the effects with no exportsetup3. LCOE energy evaluations – Commercialproperty ( If time allows)Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION1.2.3.4.5.6.FORClient needsIrradiationRoof direction and inclinationTracker or fixed tiltMajor loss factors: Temp and soiling factorOther factorsDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION1. Client needsDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION1. Client needs– What is the requirement?Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION1. Client needs– What is the requirement? Financial benefits– South Africa– Africa-Grid tiedHybrid and Off gridDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION1. Client needs– What is the requirement? Financial benefits– South Africa– Africa-Grid tiedHybrid and Off grid Necessity for energyDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION1. Client needs– What is the requirement? Financial benefits– South Africa– Africa-Grid tiedHybrid and Off grid-Put in proper solution Necessity for energy– Client has moneyDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATIONFOR1. Client needs– What is the requirement? Financial benefits– South Africa– Africa-Grid tiedHybrid and Off grid Necessity for energy– Client has money– Client does not have moneymoneyPut in proper solutionHelp the client to make moreDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION2. Irradiance Different components of irradiationDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION2. Irradiance Different components of irradiationDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATIONDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATIONFOR2. Irradiance Why is irradiation more in Upington vs DurbanDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATIONFOR2. Irradiance Why is irradiation more in Upington vs DurbanDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATIONFOR2. Irradiance Why is irradiation more in Upington vs DurbanDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATIONFOR3. Roof direction and inclination Optimum inclination is effected by your latitudeCape TownNairobi, KenyaDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION3. Roof direction and inclinationDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION4. Tracker or fixed tilt?Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATIONFOR4. Tracker or fixed tilt ? – real case scenariobased in LimpopoDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATIONFOR4. Tracker or fixed tilt – In this case tracker givesbest ROI due to TOU tariffROI differenceFixed tilt - 14%East West - 16%trackerDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATIONFOR5. Major loss factors: Temp and soiling factorDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
1. DOMINATING ELEMENTSSOLAR QUALIFICATION6. Other factors Client load profile Shading and multiple roofsDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaFOR
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL Residential / EmbassyDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL Residential / EmbassyDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL Solar PV layout– 24kWpDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL Utility: Citypower Tariff: Block.Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL The effect of unbalanced phasesDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL The effect of unbalanced phasesDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL The effect of unbalanced phasesDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL The effect of unbalanced phasesGenerator minimumload setting - 16kW –Solar PV throttledDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL The effect of unbalanced phasesLosses due to throttlingof inverter causedmostly by imbalancedloadsDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL Billing – City of Joburg – current tariff(NO PV SYSTEM)Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL Billing – City of Joburg – current tariff(NO EXPORT AS CURRENT SITUATION)Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL Billing – City of Joburg – current tariff(EXPORTING ALLOWED)Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL Billing – City of Joburg – changing to a TOUtariffDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL Billing – City of Joburg – TOU tariffAnnual results of year 1 - 24.8 kW plantPV system size installedEnergy consumption (before PV system)24.8kWp188 496kWhEnergy PV generation46 270kWhEnergy PV generation used45 869kWhEnergy PV generation exported401kWhEnergy consumption (Nett used from grid)142 626kWhTotal energy cost - without PV - year 1204 958R51 470RTotal energy savings - PV generation exported - fixed tariff172R% Energy PV generation used vs consumption24%%1%%Total energy savings - year 1% Energy PV generation not used on site (lost or exported)kWh/kWp - based on energy PV generation used1 849.6kWh/kWpEnergy savings tariff - based on PV generation used112.21c/kWhAnnual exported or unused PV energyEnergy PV generation exportedEnergy exported tariff16.2kWh/kWp42.79c/kWhAverage cost of electricity / annum (R/kWh)R1.09Total cost per annum after savingsR153 316.82Average monthly bill (only energy cost)R12 776.40R 73 055.87 saving – changing to TOU tariffR 51 641.60 saving from PV systemDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
2. BUSINESS CASE - RESIDENTIAL /SMALL COMMERCIAL Business case of scenariosDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
Nic van der WesthuizenProject ManagerTritec EnergySouth AfricaT : 27 82 8833 683E : nic@tritec-energy.co.zaDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTYDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY What is LCOE?– The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), also known asLevelized Energy Cost (LEC), is the net present valueof the unit-cost of electricity over the lifetime of agenerating asset. It is often taken as a proxy for theaverage price that the generating asset must receive ina market to break even over its lifetime.– If comparing LCOE to various sources it is importantthat you use the same assumptions throughout theValuecalculations. LCOE Assumptions in modelInflation for Opex (incl fuel cost)Discount rateLifetime of all projects (years)- with refurbisment O&M throughoutEskom annual price escalationDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa5.50%8.0%208.0%
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY Average historic Eskom fsAndCharges/Pages/Tariff History.aspxEskom’s average tariff increase- Last 12 years was 13.24% for Agriculuture (Ruraflex)- Last 28 years was 10.2%Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY Customer load profileDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY Customer load profileMaximum DemandAllowable through MVline 1MVADue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY Customer load profileDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY Customer load profileDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY Customer load profile – with expected alterationsDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY Considered energy sources–––––––Eskom (Ruraflex) – current systemEskom (Megaflex) – with additional MV line investmentEskom (Ruraflex) Solar PVDiesel generatorsGas generation – pipelineGas generation – CNGDiesel generators Solar PVDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY Considered energy sources– Gas pipeline – Gas generatorsDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY Considered energy sources– Compressed natural gas – Gas generatorsDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY LCOE values Please note: LCOE prices are based on full equity investment by owner and does notconsider cost of capital and also cannot be compared to the PPA price if anotherparty will invest and resell energy to the end user.Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTY Excess demand to be supplied by secondary source ofelectricity is the purple columns shown belowDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTYSizings evaluatedGeneratorrunning/annum– Solution 1: 1347kWp and 4000kWh (70%DOD) 3%– Solution 2: 1113kWp and 3000kWh (70%DOD) 10%– Solution 3: 758.8kWp and 3000kWh (70%DOD) 20%Entire Eskom bill to be handed over to energy plant ownerwith new energy tariff to be negotiated. The next slides willevaluate these sized options and will identify a best possiblePPA energy tariff pricing based on expected ROI of investorsin the market place which is around 15% project ROI (100%equity financed)Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTYSolution 1: 1347kWp and 4000kWh (70%DOD)Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTYSolution 2: 1113kWp and 3000kWh (70%DOD)Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTYSolution 3: 758.8kWp and 3000kWh (70%DOD)Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTYSolution 4: New Eskom MV line PV PPACAPEXSolar PV 1000kWp2MVA Eskom lineTotalR0R 9 000 000.00R 18 820 000.00OPEXPV PPA (@80c/kWh – no escalation) R 1 308 988.56EskomR 6 755 351.37TotalR 8 064 339.93Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTYSolution 5: New Eskom MV line PV self builtInstalling a new Eskom line with the new equipment to be powered by interimsolutionsSolar PV system to be purchased by clientCurrent CAPEX cost does not include installation of transformer and no extrainsurance cost is applied at this stageCAPEXSolar PV 1000kWp2MVA Eskom lineTotalR90 820 000.00R 9 000 000.00R 18 820 000.00OPEXPV PPASolarPV(@80c/kWh – no escalation) R 2301 308000.00988.56EskomR 6 755 351.37TotalR68 064985 351.37339.93Inverters (every 10-13 year replacement)Due diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTYLCOE comparison of real probable solutionsSimplistic LCOE model comparison costsNRDESCRIPTION10 years1 Eskom Ruraflex ( R0.97/kWh) - BASE CASE2 Eskom Megaflex (R0.88/kWh)3 Solar PV (18% Partial load)4 Eskom Ruraflex Solar PV5 Diesel generators6 Gas generators - pipeline7 Gas generators - CNG8 Diesel generators Solar PV9 Solution 1 - PPA full @ R1.6/kWh10 Solution 2 - Ruraflex@1MVA - with own generators and PV system11 Solution 3 - 2MVA line Megaflex with interim generators PV Batt *12 Solution 5 - 2MVA line Megaflex with 1MWp PV system owned13 Solution 4 - 2MVA line Megaflex with 1MWp PV system PPA15 years20years25 yearsCAPEXOPEXR 0.97R 0.97R 0.97R 0.97R0R 6 808 119R 1.01R 0.97R 0.95R 0.94R 9 000 000R 6 192 978R 1.11R 0.78R 0.62R 0.54R 12 120 000R 180 000R 0.98R 0.92R 0.89R 0.88R 12 120 000R 5 569 085R 3.10R 2.91R 2.75R 2.60R 4 141 947R 23 603 470R 2.02R 1.69R 1.49R 1.36R 55 836 763R 9 487 754R 1.90R 1.76R 1.64R 1.54R 11 336 763R 13 530 831R 2.77R 2.55R 2.38R 2.24R 15 841 947R 19 682 335R 1.60R 1.60R 1.60R 1.60R0R 14 707 555R 1.61R 1.43R 1.34R 1.32R 34 429 232R 10 286 387R 1.09R 1.01R 0.97R 0.95R 17 320 099R 6 667 258R 0.98R 0.90R 0.87R 0.85R 19 000 000R 6 985 351R 0.95R 0.90R 0.87R 0.85R 9 000 000R 8 064 340* 7945177 year 1 1 080 033 Reevers 6 865 145 Current (9 192 222 year 2)Grey areas is based on 1MVA supply - 800kW per every hourDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaConstructiontim e01266324866641212kWh/Annum7 008 0007 008 0007 008 0007 008 0007 008 0007 008 0007 008 0007 008 0009 192 2229 192 2229 192 2229 192 2229 192 222
3. LCOE ENERGY EVALUATIONS –COMMERCIAL PROPERTYLCOE comparison of real probable solutionsSimplistic LCOE model comparison costsNRDESCRIPTION10 years3 Solar PV (18% Partial load)13 Solution 4 - 2MVA line Megaflex with 1MWp PV system PPA12 Solution 5 - 2MVA line Megaflex with 1MWp PV system owned4 Eskom Ruraflex Solar PV2 Eskom Megaflex (R0.88/kWh)1 Eskom Ruraflex ( R0.97/kWh) - BASE CASE11 Solution 3 - 2MVA line Megaflex with interim generators PV Batt *10 Solution 2 - Ruraflex@1MVA - with own generators and PV system9 Solution 1 - PPA full @ R1.6/kWh6 Gas generators - pipeline7 Gas generators - CNG8 Diesel generators Solar PV5 Diesel generators15 years20years25 yearsCAPEXOPEXR 1.11R 0.78R 0.62R 0.54R 12 120 000R 180 000R 0.95R 0.90R 0.87R 0.85R 9 000 000R 8 064 340R 0.98R 0.90R 0.87R 0.85R 19 000 000R 6 985 351R 0.98R 0.92R 0.89R 0.88R 12 120 000R 5 569 085R 1.01R 0.97R 0.95R 0.94R 9 000 000R 6 192 978R 0.97R 0.97R 0.97R 0.97R0R 6 808 119R 1.09R 1.01R 0.97R 0.95R 17 320 099R 6 667 258R 1.61R 1.43R 1.34R 1.32R 34 429 232R 10 286 387R 1.60R 1.60R 1.60R 1.60R0R 14 707 555R 2.02R 1.69R 1.49R 1.36R 55 836 763R 9 487 754R 1.90R 1.76R 1.64R 1.54R 11 336 763R 13 530 831R 2.77R 2.55R 2.38R 2.24R 15 841 947R 19 682 335R 3.10R 2.91R 2.75R 2.60R 4 141 947R 23 603 470* 7945177 year 1 1 080 033 Reevers 6 865 145 Current (9 192 222 year 2)Grey areas is based on 1MVA supply - 800kW per every hourSolution 4 and 5 is most promising and best value for moneyDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South AfricaConstructiontim e61212612046624863kWh/Annum7 008 0009 192 2229 192 2227 008 0007 008 0007 008 0009 192 2229 192 2229 192 2227 008 0007 008 0007 008 0007 008 000
BUYING FROM A POWERHOUSE Supply electrical and thermal energy forproperty.– Electricity– Domestic hot water– Cooled water (HVAC) Marketing opportunity for going off grid– More and more pressure for carbon reduction bylisted property owners Yield enhancing - Delta cost savings on initial CAPEX– Roof infrastructure,– Backup generators provided for by powerhouse noneed for tenants to purchase– No chillers or HVAC– No electrical geysers requiredDue diligence checklist: Solar PotentialNic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa
Due diligence checklist: Solar Potential Nic van der Westhuizen Tritec South Africa 24.8 kWp 188 496 kWh 46 270 kWh 45 869 kWh 401 kWh 142 626 kWh 204 958 R 51 470 R 172 R % Energy PV generation used vs consumption 24% % 1% % 1 849.6 kWh/kWp 112.21 c/kWh % Energy PV generation not used on site (lost or exported) kWh/kWp - based on energy PV .
