Transcription
Siemens PTI Report Number: R054-15Integrated Resource Plan Volume IIIDemand and Fuel Forecasts andDemand Side ManagementDraft for the Review of the Puerto RicoEnergy Commission.Prepared forPuerto Rico Electric Power Authority(PREPA)Submitted by:Siemens IndustryAugust 17, 2015Siemens Industry, Inc.Siemens Power Technologies International400 State Street P.O. Box 1058Schenectady, New York 12301-1058 USATel: 1 (518) 395-5000 Fax: 1 (518) 346-2777www.siemens.com/power-technologies
Revision HistoryDateRev.DescriptionJuly 7, 2015Draft for the review of the Puerto Rico Energy Commission.July 31, 2015Second draft for the review of the Puerto Rico Energy Commission.August 17, 2015Third draft addressing comments from Puerto Rico Energy Commission.
ContentsLegal Notice. iiiSection 1 - Demand Forecast. 1-11.1Introduction .1-11.2Data, Assumptions and Methodology .1-11.31.41.2.1Review of Data Received from PREPA .1-11.2.2Review of Data Obtained from other sources .1-61.2.3Assumptions .1-71.2.4Methodology .1-8Results . 1-151.3.1Obtained Models for Energy Forecast. 1-151.3.2Results for Energy Forecast . 1-171.3.3Impact of Energy Efficiency Program . 1-191.3.4Results for System Peak . 1-201.3.5Validation of Forecast Prepared by PREPA. 1-24Conclusions and Recommendations. 1-27Section 2 - Fuel Price Forecast. 2-12.1Introduction .2-12.2Data, Assumptions and Methodology .2-12.32.42.2.1Review of Data Received from PREPA .2-12.2.2Review of Data Obtained from other sources .2-92.2.3Assumptions . 2-102.2.4Methodology . 2-11Results . 2-122.3.1Obtained Models for Fuel Price Forecast . 2-122.3.2Results for Fuel Price Forecast . 2-142.3.3Adders . 2-152.3.4Results of Delivered Fuel Prices Forecasting . 2-17Conclusions and Recommendations. 2-18Section 3 - Demand Side Management . 3-13.1Introduction .3-1Siemens Industry, Inc. – Siemens Power Technologies InternationalR054-15 – Integrated Resource Plan Volume IIIDemand and Fuel Forecasts and Demand Side Managementi
Contents3.23.33.4Energy Efficiency Initiatives / Programs .3-13.2.1EE Consumption Reduction Plan in Public Entities .3-23.2.2Other Energy Efficiency Initiatives Applicable to PrivateCustomers .3-3Demand Response Initiatives / Programs .3-63.3.1Price-based demand response .3-73.3.2Incentive- or Event-based demand response .3-83.3.3Example of Load Management Application: MISO StrategicInitiatives for Demand Response Program . 3-11Conclusions and Recommendations. 3-14Appendix A - Information Provided by PREPA on Technical and NonTechnical Loss for the Fiscal Year 2014 . A-1Appendix B - Information Provided by PREPA on Load Factor andNon-Coincident Peak Demand Estimates per Customer Class. B-1Appendix C - Detail of Demand Forecast Results . C-1Appendix D - Fuel Price Data Provided by PREPA. D-1Appendix E - Information about Shipping Adders. E-1Appendix F - Fuel Price Data obtained for EIA. F-1Appendix G - Fuel Price Forecast Results .G-1Siemens Industry, Inc. – Siemens Power Technologies InternationaliiR054-15 – Integrated Resource Plan Volume IIIDemand and Fuel Forecasts and Demand Side Management
Legal NoticeThis document was prepared by Siemens Industry, Inc., Siemens Power TechnologiesInternational (Siemens PTI), solely for the benefit of Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority(PREPA). Neither Siemens PTI, nor parent corporation or its or their affiliates, nor PuertoRico Electric Power Authority (PREPA), nor any person acting in their behalf (a) makes anywarranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the use of any information or methodsdisclosed in this document; or (b) assumes any liability with respect to the use of anyinformation or methods disclosed in this document.Any recipient of this document, by their acceptance or use of this document, releasesSiemens PTI, its parent corporation and its and their affiliates, and Puerto Rico Electric PowerAuthority (PREPA) from any liability for direct, indirect, consequential or special loss ordamage whether arising in contract, warranty, express or implied, tort or otherwise, andirrespective of fault, negligence, and strict liability.Siemens Industry, Inc. – Siemens Power Technologies InternationalR054-15 – Integrated Resource Plan Volume IIIDemand and Fuel Forecasts and Demand Side Managementiii
Legal NoticeThis page intentionally left blank.Siemens Industry, Inc. – Siemens Power Technologies InternationalivR054-15 – Integrated Resource Plan Volume IIIDemand and Fuel Forecasts and Demand Side Management
Section1Demand Forecast1.1IntroductionThe aim of this section of volume III of the IRP Study Report is to present and discuss allthe aspects regarding the electricity demand forecast, prepared as required for thedevelopment of the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) for PREPA. This includes aconcise presentation of the data used, a brief but complete description of themethodology and the necessary assumptions, and finally the obtained results. Theforecast has been prepared for the period 2015-2035.The demand forecast results obtained by the Consulting Team were used to validate theforecast prepared by PREPA, which was finally considered as the base for thedevelopment of the IRP.1.2Data, Assumptions and Methodology1.2.1 Review of Data Received from PREPAPREPA provided historical values of energy sales, number of customers, and somemacroeconomic variables commonly used in demand forecasting exercises efforts. Inaddition, projections of these macroeconomic variables, obtained from sources regularlyconsulted by PREPA, were also provided.1.2.1.1Historical FiguresPREPA provided historical information of the following variables: Annual sales per customer class and average number of active residential,commercial, industrial, public lighting, agricultural, and other customers (fiscal yearsfrom 1993-1994 to 2013-2014), Macroeconomic variables in annual values from Fiscal Years 1993 to 2014: GrossNational Product (GNP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Disposable PersonalIncome (DPI), in constant values (US dollars of 1954), Annual estimates of population of Puerto Rico from 1993 to 2014.The sales to residential, commercial, and industrial customers represented almost 98%of the total sales since fiscal year 1993-1994. For this reason, the forecast exercise wasfocused on these three customer types, while just verification of sound estimations byPREPA was performed for public lighting, agricultural, and other customer classes.Siemens Industry, Inc. – Siemens Power Technologies InternationalR054-15 – Integrated Resource Plan Volume IIIDemand and Fuel Forecasts and Demand Side Management1-1
Demand ForecastMost of the data was provided by PREPA, but the Consulting Team collected some dataindependently for validation. In specific, several years of the “Income and Product”report, prepared by the Planning Board of the Office of the Governor of Puerto Rico,were consulted.Table 1-1, Table 1-2 and Table 1-3 below summarize the historical data received fromPREPA and verified by consulting other sources.Table 1-1: Historical Annual Sales per Customer Class (GWh)Fiscal Year Residential Commercial Industrial Public Lighting Agricultural 561Notes: (1) “Others” class corresponds to tariff 513 (General Service at Transmission Voltage – PublicAuthority)Table 1-2: Annual Average Number of Active Customers per Customer ClassFiscal Year Residential Commercial Industrial Public Lighting Agricultural 881,401,301Siemens Industry, Inc. – Siemens Power Technologies International1-2R054-15 – Integrated Resource Plan Volume IIIDemand and Fuel Forecasts and Demand Side Management
Demand ForecastFiscal Year Residential Commercial Industrial Public Lighting Agricultural able 1-3: Historical Series of Macroeconomic Variables(Millions US of 1954) and Mid-Year ossNational 326,4906,5126,393GrossDomestic 7110,62710,59710,39510,4179,649DisposablePersonal 45,6483,620,897Some aspects about the data shown above can be briefly highlighted: Residential Customers:oThe energy sales to residential customers during fiscal year 1993-1994amounted 4,996 GWh, while the maximum demand was observed on fiscalyear 2004-2005 (7,437 GWh), which represents an average year-over-yearSiemens Industry, Inc. – Siemens Power Technologies InternationalR054-15 Integrated Resource Plan Volume IIIDemand and Fuel Forecasts and Demand Side Management1-3
Demand Forecast(YOY) increase of 3,68% up to that date; however, the sales during fiscalyear 2013-2014 (6,270 GWh) are 15% lower than the historical peak and it isthe lowest annual value since fiscal year 1998-1999,o The number
Siemens Industry, Inc. – Siemens Power Technologies International R054-15 – Integrated Resource Plan Volume III Demand and Fuel Forecasts and Demand Side Management 1-4 (YOY) increase of 3,68% up to that date; however, the sales during fiscal year 2013-2014 (6,270 GWh) are 15% lower than the historical peak and it is the lowest annual value since fiscal year 1998-1999, o The number of .
